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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | BLINOV, Sergey |
| Abstract: | For effective economic growth, intentional “creation” of unemployment is required to be followed up by its «elimination». From Okun’s law one can infer an interesting corollary: growing unemployment without reducing GDP increases the economy’s potential. This corollary can be proved theoretically (unlike Okun’s law which is an empirical law). There were two causes of the USSR’s economic slowdown on the eve of its breakup. One of them was a shortage of labor which is identical to lack of unemployment. However strange it may seem, but the economic problems of modern Russia have the same root cause. |
| Keywords: | employment; Okun’s law; economic growth; productivity |
| JEL: | E24 J01 J08 N14 |
| Date: | 2014–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:53591&r=cis |
| By: | Azarhoushang, Behzad; Rukavina, Marko |
| Abstract: | Weak economic performance of most oil rich countries states that natural resources are more curse than blessing for these countries. Resource curse theory examines the negative effects of rich natural resources on economic growth from an economic and political perspective. Since 1960s appreciation of real domestic exchange rate (Dutch Disease) was explained as the main reason for poor economic performance of oil rich countries. But since 1990s, other causes such as long lasting ineffective institutions, corruption and rent seeking are considered to be other major political reasons behind backwardness of most resource rich countries. These political features are the corner stone of Resource Curse theory. In this paper we examine the viability of Resource Curse theory for Iran, Russia and Norway to see whether natural resources are curse or blessing for these countries. Furthermore, we compare main macroeconomic and good governance indicators from 2000 to 2010 of Iran with Turkey and Russia with China to illustrate the negative effects of oil revenue on economic performance. The result of this research shows that institutional quality has vital role in sustainable economic development. Norway as a successful oil rich country shows that efficient institutions can turn natural resource into blessing; while Iran's and Russia's experiences are a clear example of resource curse. -- |
| Keywords: | Resource Curse,Dutch Disease,Iran,Russia,Norway,China,Turkey |
| JEL: | O11 O52 O53 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:302014&r=cis |
| By: | Rodolfo Mendez-Marcano |
| Abstract: | On the ground of the significance and potential dual-nature of oil price shocks- they may act simultaneously like pure technology and pure expenditure shocks- in the context of the oil-countries-net oil-exporters with a substantial share of oil-income on their total export an/or fiscal-income. The paper questions the validity in such context of Gal´ı (1999)’s influential methodology for evaluating- so far, negatively- the empirical merits of it aimed to restore such validity by disentangling oil-price shocks from the rest of shocks. The comparison of the results from the application of both methodologies to Norway, Mexico, Russia, Trinidad&Tobago and Venezuela, besides supporting the dual-nature hypothesis and the necessity of such disentangling, proves the latter to be instrumental to get results consistent with Gal´ı (1999)’s. Additionally, the paper unveil some startling facts about the effects of oil–price shocks in this context—remarkably, the prevalence of their technological-nature when oil-income has a higher weight on export— than on fiscal-income, and of their expenditure-nature otherwise—and shed some light on the influence of institutional reform on such effects. |
| Keywords: | SVAR; identifying restrictions; small open economies; oil economies; dutch disease; resource curse |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F41 F44 Q33 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1405&r=cis |
| By: | Lechman, Ewa |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses existing links between changing patterns of export of goods broken down by technology-intensity versus macroeconomic competitiveness. The study covers nine East-Central European economies: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovak Republic, in the time span 2000-2011. We hypothesize on discovering strong, positive and statistically significant relationship between flows of export of high-tech and ICTs manufactures goods, and level of macroeconomic competitiveness (approximated by Global Competitiveness Index – GCI, see: World Economic Forum). Our methodological approach relies on elaboration of country`s individual export patterns with regard to industries of different technology-intensity, and statistical analysis between macroeconomic GCI variable and variables identifying shares in total export of certain industries. Reversely to what was initially expected, our empirical results do not seem to support the hypothesis on statistically positive links between growing shares of high-tech and ICT manufactures industries in total value of export versus Global Competitiveness Index, in analyzed countries. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, export, technology-intensity, comparative analysis |
| JEL: | F1 F14 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:53639&r=cis |
| By: | Gault F.; Kuusisto J.; Niemi M. (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | Statistics Finland added questions to the Finnish Community Innovation Survey CIS for 2010 on the importance of user innovation. For firms engaged in innovation activity during the three year period, 2008-2010, 30 per cent reported that user modified products were of high or medium importance to them. For user developed products the figure was 13 per cent. These firms, compared with those that did not rank user innovation as highly, had a higher propensity to produce new to the market product innovations and they were more active in producing product innovations by themselves, by collaborating with others, by adapting and adopting products from other firms, and by using products from other firms. The results for user modified and user developed products were found to be consistent with responses to a standard CIS question on whether the product innovation of the firm was done by adapting products developed by others, but the results were not sufficient to say that responses to this question were a consequence, principally, of user innovation. The wider implications of the findings are discussed along with the need for confirmation of the findings in other countries. Both Portugal and Switzerland have incorporated the Finnish CIS 2010 questions into their CIS 2012 and have added additional questions which may show that existing CIS data provide information on the presence of user innovation. |
| Keywords: | Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis; Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes; |
| JEL: | D22 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2014003&r=cis |
| By: | Ronald A. Ratti; Joaquin L. Vespignani |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the influence of liquidity in the major developed and major developing economies on commodity prices. Liquidity is taken to be M2. A novel finding is that unanticipated increases in the BRIC countries’ liquidity is associated with significant and persistent increases in commodity prices that are much larger than the effect of unanticipated increases in G3 liquidity, and the difference increases over time. Over 1999-2012 BRIC liquidity is strongly linked with global energy prices and global real activity whereas G3 liquidity is not. The impact of BRIC liquidity on mineral and metal prices is twice as large as that of G3 liquidity. Granger casualty goes from liquidity to commodity prices. BRIC and G3 liquidity and commodity prices are cointegrated. BRIC and G3 liquidity and global output and global prices are cointegrated. We construct a structural factor-augmented error correction (SFAVEC) model. |
| Keywords: | Commodity Prices, BRIC countries, G3, Global liquidity, SFAVEC |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E51 F01 G15 Q43 |
| Date: | 2014–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-13&r=cis |