nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2013‒12‒20
six papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Model of currency integration involving the Republic of Belarus (in Russian) By Anastasiya Luzgina
  2. Terms of Joining Russian Federation to World Trade Organization: Necessity and Compromises By Itskovich, Alexander U.
  3. Macroeconomic Policy in Belarus after Currency Crisis: Challenges and Perspectives (in Russian) By Dzmitry Kruk
  4. Prospects of economic and monetary integration of the CIS Member States By Anastasiya Luzgina
  5. Loan/Loss Provisioning in Emerging Europe: Precautionary or Pro-Cyclical? By John Bonin; Marko Kosak
  6. Trans Anadolu Dogal Gaz Boru Hattı Projesinin Ekonomik ve Stratejik Beklentileri By Suleymanov, Elchin; Hasanov, Fakhri; Nuri Aras, Osman

  1. By: Anastasiya Luzgina (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC))
    Abstract: The paper presents a model of foreign exchange integration in the post-Soviet countries. The author considers the possibility of introducing a supranational unit of account in the most economically integrated countries in the medium term, namely Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia.
    Keywords: Belarus, CIS, currency integration, unit of account
    Date: 2013–08
  2. By: Itskovich, Alexander U.
    Abstract: The negotiations about the joining of Russian Federation (RF) to the World Trade Organization (WTO) were carried on in the period from 1993 till up 2012 years. The President of Russia undersigned on July 21, 2012 a Federal Law ''About the Ratification of the Protocol about the Joining of RF to the Marrakesh Agreement of the World Trade Organization Foundation of April 15, 1994''. After this ratification Russia becomes a member of the WTO and assumes corresponding obligations established by multilateral trade agreements. The Protocol becomes also a part of the legal foundations of Russian Federation. In a case when the Protocol establishes some other rules than the Russian Law are used the rules of the Protocol. One of the problems, which dragged the process of negotiations, remained, besides the other ones, obligations in the field of agriculture. In particular, in the sphere of the introduction of limitations corresponding the amount of the state supporting which one country, a member of the WTO, would be able to put at the disposal of national agroproducers. Nowadays the amount of the state supporting in regard of the agricultural sector makes up about 3.5 billions of the USD dollars annually. At the time of the joining the WTO it was determined in the amount of 9.0 billions of the USD dollars annually. In the following, in the period from 2012 till up 2017 years it would be reduced according to the corresponding schedule till 4.4 billions of the USD dollars annually. The necessity of the Russia’s joining to the WTO is explained on the ground of that fact that according to the rules and norms of the WTO are regulated more than 90 percents of the world trade with goods and services. At the same time the main form of the world economic connections as before remains the international trade which according to its dynamic and value indices leave behind the growth of the world production, the flow of capital and other kinds of international connections. According to the WTO data the amounts of the world agricultural foodstuffs export/import made up in 2000 year 558 billions of the USD dollars. The share of Russia in the export made up 1.3 percents and in the import 1.9 percents. The lack of balance in this sector of the international trade meant for Russia the loss of 3.3 billions of the USD dollars annually. The amount of import to Russian Federation increased in 2011 year compared with 2010 year by 30,0 percents and reached 323.3 billions of the USD dollars. At the same time the share of the agricultural sector in the import reached about 13.0 percents or 42.5 billions of the USD dollars. In the same period of time, according to the data of the Central Bank of Russia, the export of RF made up 521.4 billions of the USD dollars and increased by 30.2 percents, but the share of the agricultural sector only made up 2.3 percents of the total export.
    Keywords: World Trade Organization (WTO), ''yellow basket'', ''green basket'', conditions of ''WTO-plus'' regime, Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2013–08
  3. By: Dzmitry Kruk (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC))
    Abstract: This paper deals with economic policy in Belarus after the currency crisis of 2011. There was a trade-off between the desire of the government to soften economic policy given cyclical recession and high and volatile inflation expectations. In the first half of 2012, the choice was made in favor of enhancing financial stability: the output grew mainly due to foreign demand, which was crucial for macroeconomic equilibrium. Furthermore, a positive shock in foreign trade allowed domestic demand to grow somehow. However, when the positive shock exhausted, the government changed a policy mix and shifted the economy to the regime of catch-up growth. The latteê led to the waste of advantages in price competitiveness obtained due to the currency crisis of 2011, and the country returned to the pre-crisis trajectory of output growth. It is argued, that this trajectory is much more dangerous than before, as it generates lower growth at the background of rapidly progressing external imbalances. Structural reforms seem to be the only option to break the vicious circle.
    Keywords: Belarus, currency crisis, inflation expectations, macroeconomic policy
    Date: 2013–06
  4. By: Anastasiya Luzgina (Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC))
    Abstract: The paper lists reasons for participation of the Republic of Belarus in economic integration in the territory of the Former Soviet Union. The author looks at the prospects of convergence in economic and monetary spheres of the CIS member states.
    Keywords: Belarus, CIS, economic integration, convergence analysis, monetary integration
    Date: 2013–07
  5. By: John Bonin (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Marko Kosak (Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia)
    Abstract: The recent global financial crisis has generated considerable interest in reviewing the regulatory environment surrounding the banking sectors in most countries and proposals for changes designed to avoid such a severe outcome in the future. In this paper, we consider a particular aspect relevant to bank regulation, namely, the cyclicality of loan loss provisioning, in a region of emerging market economies. All eleven of the countries in our sample are currently new members of the European Union, the first group entering 2004 and the last country joining in 2013. Our time period from 1997 to 2010 covers roughly one and a half business cycles, starting with the impact of the Russian financial crisis and followed by a rapid growth of bank credit prior to the included global financial crisis. We find that the determinants of loan loss provisioning by banks in the region are similar to those found in the literature for other countries both developed and developing ones. We find evidence on income smoothing through provisioning and capital management by substitution. Unlike the results in much of the literature, we do not find statistically significant evidence of bank-specific pro-cyclicality, i.e., a strong positive relationship between provisioning and individual bank loan growth. However, we do find strong and robust evidence of macroeconomic pro-cyclicality, i.e., a strong positive relationship between provisioning and country GDP growth. Based on the innovative policy of dynamic (statistical) provisioning instrument adopted by Spanish regulators in 2000 to smooth provisioning over the business cycle, we draw implications for regulatory design specific to this region in which financial sectors are bank-centric and financial deepening is occurring.
    Date: 2013–12
  6. By: Suleymanov, Elchin; Hasanov, Fakhri; Nuri Aras, Osman
    Abstract: The Republic of Azerbaijan is one of the oil and gas rich countires of the former Soviet Union. After the second stage of the Shah Deniz gas field, natural gas exltation and exportation became one of the key issues in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas stategy. Diversification of the oil and gas transportation is key issue for Azerbaijan’s energy security policy. In this regard, TANAP is one of the important project after Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. TANAP is proposed natural gas pipeline for transporting Azerbaijani natural gas through Turkey to Europe in two directions. The project is firstly announced on 17 November 2011 at the Third Black Sea Energy and Economic Forum in Istanbul and singed on 26 June 2012.By starting 2014 and finishing 2018, TANAP will cost billion USD and will be the capacity of 23 billion cubic metres by 2023 and 31 billion cubic metres by 2026.
    Keywords: TANAP,Energy,Oil,Natural gas,Pipeline
    JEL: F1 F13 F5 F53 Q40 Q43 Q47
    Date: 2013–09–15

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