nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2013‒08‒31
thirteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. A Gravity Model of Russian Trade: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Socio-Cultural Similarity By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Suganuma, Keiko
  2. The Russian gas industry : challenges to the "Gazprom model" By Catherine Locatelli
  3. Religious Identity, Public Goods and Centralization: Evidence from Russian and Israeli Cities By Theocharis Grigoriadis; Benno Torgler
  4. Industrialization Lessons from BRICS: A Comparative Analysis By Naudé, Wim; Szirmai, Adam; Lavopa, Alejandro
  5. Is mining fuelling long-run growth in Russia? Industry productivity growth trends since 1995 By Timmer , Marcel P.; Voskoboynikov , Ilya B.
  6. Реформа РАН: Экспертный анализ: Часть I. Реформа РАН: проект Минобрнауки By Polterovich, Victor
  7. Pragmatic Eurasianism By Vinokurov, Evgeny
  8. A Segurança e Defesa Cibernética no Brasil e uma Revisão das Estratégias dos Estados Unidos, Rússia e Índia para o Espaço Virtual By Samuel César da Cruz Júnior
  9. Do first mover advantages for producers of energy efficient appliances exist? The case of refrigerators By Cleff, Thomas; Rennings, Klaus
  10. How market-based water allocation can improve water use efficiency in the Aral Sea basin? By Bekchanov, Maksud; Bhaduri, Anik; Ringler, Claudia
  11. What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors By Benkovskis , Konstantins; Wörz , Julia
  12. Macroecnomic Impacts of FDI in Transition Economies: A Meta-Study By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Tokunaga, Masahiro
  13. Third Generation University Strategic Planning Model Development By Skribans, Valerijs; Lektauers, Arnis; Merkuryev, Yuri

  1. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Suganuma, Keiko
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimated a gravity model of Russian trade using panel data from Russia and 23 OECD member countries. Our estimation results indicate that foreign direct investment and socio-cultural similarity are determining factors in the trade volume between Russia and these developed economies. We also found that the trade and investment activities of Russian firms differ considerably from their counterparts in developed economies.
    Keywords: international trade, foreign direct investment, gravity model, Poisson regression, WTO, Russia
    JEL: F14 F21 P33
    Date: 2013–08
  2. By: Catherine Locatelli (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I)
    Abstract: The Russian gas sector is undergoing significant changes which is opening the way for an original reform. Because of the particular institutional and economic context of the country, this reorganisation is not taking place along the lines of the de-integrated model of the EU. It is characterised by increasingly significant competitive fringes. Gazprom remains the main actor of the Russian gas industry but the company is facing challenges on its main export market and an increasing competition at home with the arrival of new gas firms, independents and Russian oil companies. For Gazprom, the aim issue is to develop more flexible strategies for export markets but also on its internal market. These internal changes will not be without consequence on the country's export strategy and the implication for international markets could be considerable.
    Keywords: Russia ; reform of the gas organisational model ; institutional analysis ; Gazprom ; gas industry
    Date: 2013–06
  3. By: Theocharis Grigoriadis; Benno Torgler
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effects of religious identity – defined both as personal identification with a religious tradition and institutional ideas on the provision of public goods – on attitudes toward central government. We explore whether citizens belonging to collectivist rather than individualist religious denominations are more likely to evaluate their central government positively. Moreover, we explore whether adherence to collectivist norms of economic and political organization leads to a positive evaluation of central government. Surveys were conducted in Russia and Israel as these countries provide a mosaic of three major world religions – Judaism, Eastern Orthodoxy and Sunni Islam. The information gathered also allows us to study whether attitudes towards religious institutions such as the Russian Orthodox Church, the Chief Rabbinate in Jerusalem, the Jerusalem Islamic Waqf, and the Greek-Orthodox Patriarchate of Jerusalem in Israel are able to predict positive attitudes toward centralized forms of governance. We find strong support for the proposition that collectivist norms and an institutional religious identity enhance positive attitudes towards central government.
    Keywords: Religious identity; public goods; collectivism; individualism; local government; centralization; Russia; Israel
    JEL: P16 P17 P21 P35 P51 P52 Z12
    Date: 2013–08
  4. By: Naudé, Wim (Maastricht School of Management); Szirmai, Adam (Maastricht University); Lavopa, Alejandro (Maastricht University)
    Abstract: To date there has been few systematic and comparative empirical analyses of the nature of economic development in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). We contribute to addressing this gap by exploring the patterns of structural change between 1980 and 2010, focusing on the manufacturing sector. We show that three of the BRICS are experiencing de-industrialization (Brazil, Russia and South Africa). China is the only country where an expanding manufacturing sector accounts for a significant part of aggregate growth. We explore the differences in patterns and causes of manufacturing between China and the other BRICS. These differences are down to differences in industrial policy: in China industrial policy supported both foreign and domestic investment for technological catch-up. It is the only country where FDI favoured the manufacturing sector and manufactured exports, and where domestic investment started becoming increasingly important compared to FDI from 1995 onward.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, multinational enterprises, industrialization, technology, innovation, entrepreneurship, Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa
    JEL: F23 L52 L53 O25 O40 O33 O34
    Date: 2013–08
  5. By: Timmer , Marcel P. (BOFIT); Voskoboynikov , Ilya B. (BOFIT)
    Abstract: GDP per capita growth rates in Russia have been among the highest in the world since the mid-1990s. Previous growth accounting research suggests that this was mainly driven by multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth. In this paper we analyse for the first time the drivers of Russian growth for thirty-four industries over the period 1995 to 2008. We pay in particular attention to the construction of a proper measure of capital services, to use in place of the stock measures employed in previous research. Based on these new measures, we find that aggregate GDP growth is driven as much by capital input as by MFP growth. Mining and Retailing account for an increasing share of the inputs, but are weak in terms of MFP performance. In contrast, MFP growth was rapid in goods-producing industries, but the sector’s GDP share declined. The major drivers of MFP growth were in the high-skilled services industries that were particularly underdeveloped in the Russian economy in the 1990s.
    Keywords: industrial growth accounting; structural change; Russia
    JEL: L16 O47 P28
    Date: 2013–08–12
  6. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: The theory of reforms usually assumes that a designer aims to increase public welfare under existing constraints. In practice, however, initiators of reforms quite often proceed from false premises, and pursue political and-or self-interested goals. In this paper, we analyze an example of such an initiative - the project of reform of the Russian Academy of Science, offered by The Ministry of Education and Science in June 2013. It is shown, that among the political motives which stimulated the appearance of the project, the main one was the intention to deprive the community of researchers of its organizational independence. This motive was supported by the erroneous thesis, according to which Russian Academy of Science is not capable to provide innovation-based development whereas for successful imitation of technologies, fundamental researches are ostensibly not necessary at all. The analysis shows the exigency of reforming the Russian system of preparation and realization of reforms.
    Keywords: reform design; costs of reform; civil society; fundamental research; catching up development; science and authorities
    JEL: B52 O43 P11
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Vinokurov, Evgeny
    Abstract: This article offers a systematic and pragmatic approach to Eurasian integration. It assumes that integration is not an objective, but an essential means to resolve the pressing problems of all countries involved, with economic modernization as the key challenge. Pragmatic Eurasianism is aimed at securing “integration from below,” meaning that free movement of goods, services, labor, and capital is a guarantee of long-term stability and is crucial for the success of integration. It is an ideology of open regionalism that does not shrink into itself, but which is based on consolidation across the continent, both towards the West and the East. Pragmatism in politics does not mean it cannot be fleshed out with a value dimension. Eurasianism is an ideology. It needs substance and a technocratic approach to the political and management processes. It gives priority to the economy and is a prudent approach to estimating the balance between long-term benefits and losses.
    Keywords: integration, post-Soviet, Eurasia, Russia, regionalism
    JEL: F4 F5
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Samuel César da Cruz Júnior
    Abstract: A computação, eletrônica e a internet proporcionaram o livre e rápido trânsito das informações pelo globo. De certa forma, a sociedade moderna depende de sistemas de controle autônomo. Todavia, esta inovação tecnológica impõe um preço a ser pago: investimento em segurança cibernética referente a pessoas, dados, informações e infraestruturas. Alguns países no mundo já absorveram o tema como uma questão de Estado e institucionalizaram órgãos governamentais e estruturas para cuidar exclusivamente dele. Este texto apresenta alguns pontos relevantes da estratégia internacional para o espaço cibernético dos Estados Unidos, além do posicionamento da Rússia e Índia sobre o tema. Em seguida, apresenta um panorama da situação brasileira, a partir da Estratégia Nacional de Defesa, documento que introduz a responsabilização da defesa do espaço cibernético brasileiro. Mostra o posicionamento, na hierarquia do governo federal,das diversas agências e organizações responsáveis por conduzirem as atividades de inteligência necessárias à segurança do espaço cibernético no Brasil. Por fim, traz um panorama das infraestruturas de tecnologia da informação (TI) ora existentes no Brasil, especialmente na administração pública federal. Computing, electronics and internet provides the free and fast flow of information across the globe. In a way, modern society depends on these autonomous control systems. However, this technological innovation requires a price to be paid: investment in cyber security of people, data, information and infrastructure. Some countries have already absorbed the issue as a matter of state and institutionalized government structures to take care exclusively of it. This paper presents some relevant points of the International Strategy for Cyberspace of the United States, besides the positioning of Russia and India on the subject. It then presents an overview of the Brazilian situation, from the the National Defense Strategy, a document that introduces the responsibility of protecting Brazilian cyberspace. It shows the arrangement, in the federal government i. The versions in English of the abstracts of this series have not been edited by Ipea’s publishing department. As versões em língua inglesa das sinopses desta coleção não são objeto de revisão pelo Editorial do Ipea.hierarchy, of the various national agencies and organizations responsible for conducting intelligence activities necessary for the national security of Brazil. Finally, it provides an overview of the IT infrastructure existing in Brazil, especially in the federal public administration.
    Date: 2013–07
  9. By: Cleff, Thomas; Rennings, Klaus
    Abstract: Energy efficiency regulation is an important driver for innovations in environmental technologies. Improvements of energy efficiency do not only contribute to reach envi-ronmental policy targets, they can be furthermore economically profitable. E.g. private households can reduce their costs in the long term by using efficient household appli-ances. But how can the specific competitive position on this market be assessed for German producers, and how strong is the competitiveness from firms coming from emerging economies? We analyse - as an example - the global refrigerator market, using the lead market approach for environmental innovations. As our results show, Germany has the most lead market potentials for energy-efficient refrigerators, followed by Korea und Italy. First mover advantages for high-tech energy efficient appliances can be realised on the German market. This is backed by high en-ergy efficiency standards in Europe which diffuse after some years to other countries. Since the pay-off time for energy efficient household appliances is with 7 to 10 years quite long, also a cost strategy with low prices can be successful. Especially in the case when the price of electricity and the national income are low. Markets for such products are for example in Asia and Russia. Producers use the existence of both strategy options to operate with different brands and product lines in different market niches at the same time. For firms in countries that do not have sufficient lead market potentials, innovations in energy efficiency must be targeted to fit the preferences of users in the lead market. The screening of the lead market can take on varying degrees of intensity. A good way for a company to estab-lish ties with a lead market is via producers with long experience on the Lead Market. It can be realised through a simple sales cooperation with local producers or a merger with a local producer of the lead market. --
    Keywords: Household appliances,energy efficiency,refrigerators,lead market,first mover
    JEL: Q55 O33 Q01 Q58
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Bekchanov, Maksud; Bhaduri, Anik; Ringler, Claudia
    Abstract: Increasing water demand due to population growth, irrigation expansion, industrial development, and the need for ecosystem improvements under mounting investment costs for developing new water sources calls for the efficient, equitable and sustainable management of water resources. This is particularly essential in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) where ineffective institutions are the primary reason of intersectoral and inter-state water sharing conflicts and lack of sufficient investments for improving water use efficiency. This study examined market-based water allocation as an alternative option to the traditional administrative allocation to deal with water scarcity issues in the ASB. Potential economic gains of tradable water use rights were analyzed based on a newly constructed integrated hydro-economic river basin management model. The analysis differentiates between inter-catchment and intra-catchment water trading. The former does not consider any restrictions on water trading whereas the latter is based on the assumption that water trading is more likely to happen between neighboring water users located within the same catchment area. The analyses show that compared to fixed water allocation, inter-catchment water trading can improve basin-wide benefits by US$ 373 and US$ 476 million depending on water availability. Similarly, additional gains of US$ 259 to US$ 339 million are estimated under intra-catchment water trading depending on relative water availability. Trading gains are higher under drier conditions. However, water trading carries a series of transaction costs. We find that transaction costs exceeding US$0.05 per m3 of water traded wipe out the economic potential for water trading. Enforcement of the rule of law, infrastructural improvements, participation of representatives of all water stakeholders in decision making processes, and friendly relationships among the riparian countries are suggested as means for reducing transaction costs of water trading contracts.
    Keywords: inter-catchment and intra-catchment water trading, transaction costs, hydro-economic model, Agribusiness, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2013–05
  11. By: Benkovskis , Konstantins (BOFIT); Wörz , Julia (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The paper proposes a theoretical framework to explain gains and losses in export market shares by their price and non-price determinants. Starting from a demand-side model à la Armington (1969), we relax several restrictive assumptions to evaluate the contribution of unobservable changes in taste and quality, taking into account differences in elasticities of substitution across product markets. Using highly disaggregated trade data from UN Comtrade, our empirical analysis for the major world exporters (G7 and BRIC countries) reveals the dominant role of non-price factors in explaining the competitive gains of BRIC countries and concurrent decline in the G7’s share of world exports.
    Keywords: export market share decomposition; non-price competitiveness; real effective exchange rate
    JEL: C43 F12 F14 L15
    Date: 2013–08–12
  12. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Tokunaga, Masahiro
    Abstract: In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis of the literature that empirically examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. We found that existing studies indicate a growth-enhancing effect of FDI in the region as a whole. The results of our meta-regression analysis suggest that the effect size and statistical significance of the reported estimates strongly depend on study conditions. In particular, the estimation period, data type, estimator, and type of FDI variable are important factors that explain the heterogeneity in the empirical results. The degree of freedom and the research quality greatly affect estimates of the FDI variable as well. We also found that the relevant studies fail to present genuine evidence of a non-zero FDI effect due to the presence of publication selection bias and insufficient numbers of empirical evidence. More research is necessary to identify the true effect.
    Keywords: economic transition, macroeconomic impacts of FDI, meta-analysis, publication selection bias, Central and Eastern Europe, former Soviet Union
    JEL: F21 F23 F43 P33
    Date: 2013–08
  13. By: Skribans, Valerijs; Lektauers, Arnis; Merkuryev, Yuri
    Abstract: The paper discusses implementation of a research that is aimed at development of a simulation model which would allow analyzing different development strategies of the third generation university. Small countries’ universities have limits of growth. The problem can be solved with a new approach to university role. The third generation defines university as innovation generation, transfer and implementation center, while maintaining the traditional university functions. The 3G university activities change number of innovative companies in the country. With growth of the number of innovative companies, potential researches and innovation customers’ amount grow. With time the amount of conducted research and developed innovative products growth. Innovative products and technologies is the basis of university competitiveness in the 21st century. Universities must develop, accumulate, implement and get benefits from innovative products and technologies.
    Keywords: system dynamics; higher education; resource management; organizational learning; funding; quality; knowledge; innovation
    JEL: C02 C50 C51 C60 C69 I20 I21 I22 I23
    Date: 2013

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