|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Hartmut Lehmann; Maria Giulia Silvagni |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses convergence in per capita gross regional product of Russia’s regions during the period 1995-2010, when regional data are available. Using a panel regression framework we find no evidence for beta-convergence. Instead we find divergence, which is, however, attenuated over time. Robustness checks that use regional real income instead of gross regional product confirm this outcome as do non-parametric estimates of convergence, namely estimates using Markov transition probability matrices and stochastic kernel plots of regional relative income. Decompositions of regional income and gross regional product also find no sigma-convergence of Russian regions. These decompositions point to the geographical concentration of extractive activities in the Urals and of business services and of the public administration in the Moscow area as the main culprit for this lack of convergence. They also establish that despite reforms to equalize provisions of public goods across Russia, the social services sector of the public administration, education and health still do not have the expected equalizing impact on regional income.<P>Y a-t-il convergence entre régions de Russie ? : Exploration des preuves empiriques: 1995-2010<BR>Cet article analyse la convergence du produit régional brut per capita entre régions de Russie au cours de la période 1995-2010, lorsque les données régionales sont disponibles. En utilisant une régression de panel, nous ne trouvons aucune preuve de bêta-convergence. Nous trouvons au contraire une divergence qui s’atténue toutefois au fil du temps. Nous confirmons ces résultats avec deux tests de robustesse : un qui utilise le revenu régional réel au lieu du produit régional brut, un autre basé sur des estimations non paramétriques de convergence, à savoir des estimations des matrices de probabilité de transition de Markov et une représentation de kernel stochastiques du revenu régional relatif. Des décompositions du revenu régional et du produit régional brut ne montrent pas non plus de sigma-convergence entre régions russes. Ces décompositions soulignent la concentration géographique des activités extractives dans l'Oural et de services aux entreprises et de l'administration publique dans la région de Moscou comme les principaux responsables de ce manque de convergence. Elles établissent également que malgré les réformes pour égaliser les provisions de biens publics à travers la Russie, le secteur des services sociaux de l'administration publique, l'éducation et la santé n'ont toujours pas l'impact attendu sur l'égalisation des revenus régionaux. |
| Keywords: | convergence, Russian regions, regional inequality decomposition, regional distribution dynamics, convergence, régions russes, décomposition inter-régionale de l'inégalité, dynamique de distribution régionale |
| JEL: | O47 P25 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2013–08–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1083-en&r=cis |
| By: | Rustam Jamilov; Balázs Égert |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the interest rate pass-through for five economies of the Caucasus – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) specification to monthly data, we find that the interest rate pass-through is systematically incomplete and sluggish, probably due to macroeconomic instability and low banking sector competition. It is not clear whether pass-through has improved over time and asymmetric adjustment is found to characterize the pass-through only occasionally. Overall, our results show a considerable degree of cross-country heterogeneity in the size and speed of the pass-through. |
| Keywords: | Interest Rate Pass-Through; Asymmetric Adjustment; Caucasus |
| JEL: | E43 E52 N25 |
| Date: | 2013–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wdi:papers:2013-1041&r=cis |
| By: | Bogetic, Zeljko; Olusi, Olasupo |
| Abstract: | This note presents the results of an empirical analysis of firm-level productivity growth in Russia's manufacturing sector during the period 2003-08 using a rich Amadeus database as well as the recent EBRD/World Bank Business Enterprise and Performance surveys (BEEPs). The results show that productivity grew steadily between 2003 and 2008, with an annual growth rate averaging 4 percent over the period, showing no signs of a slowdown from the previous period after the 1998 crisis. Firm characteristics such as size, location, age, and the structure of firm ownership are important determinants of productivity, as evidenced by positive effects of scale economies (large firm effect), agglomeration (Moscow-city effect), private ownership, and a firm's industry dominance. Supplemental analysis of the quality of infrastructure -- water, electricity, transport, and the internet -- using BEEPS data show that infrastructure quality gaps reduce firm productivity with water supply gaps having the largest impact. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,E-Business,Economic Theory&Research,Microfinance,Municipal Financial Management |
| Date: | 2013–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6572&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary The protracted recession in the euro area will continue to be a drag on the economic growth of most CESEE countries in 2013. By and large, those countries are small open economies held hostage to the excessive fiscal austerity pursued in the euro area and the sluggish progress on the part of its policy-makers in adequately addressing the structural roots of the crisis. At the same time, the private sector demand in the CESEE countries is unlikely to recover substantially in the near term either. Wherever there will be an increase in investments, it will be primarily funded via public money, with EU transfers playing an increasingly important role. In general, the prospects for 2013 are only marginally better than the previous year; any significant improvement will be unlikely before 2014 – in line with the projected recovery in the euro area. These are the main results of the newly released medium-term growth forecast for the region by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). Weak exports and suppressed domestic demand pushed nearly half of the Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) economies into recession in 2012, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and nearly all Western Balkan countries. Elsewhere in the region, growth remained positive but was generally unspectacular, with the notable exceptions of Kazakhstan and Latvia. Also in countries that hitherto had been relatively immune to the euro area crisis (such as Russia, Poland, Ukraine and Turkey), growth dynamics progressively decelerated in the second half of the year. On the whole, 2012 was a disappointing year for the CESEE economies, confirming fears of a double-dip recession in the euro area adversely impacting large parts of the CESEE region. This rather poor performance stands in sharp contrast to the better dynamics in other ‘emerging markets’ in Asia and Latin America, and underscores the dependence of large parts of the CESEE region on the troubled euro area (not least in terms of policies pursued) and the structural weakness of many CESEE economies. The crucial factor behind the disappointing CESEE growth performance has been the weakness of domestic demand. Import demand generally lagged behind export growth, and net exports contributed positively to GDP growth in 2012 – despite the anaemic external environment. High unemploymentand stagnant wages, coupled with fiscal austerity and the ongoing (albeit in some cases decelerating) household deleveraging, continue to weigh heavily on the dynamics of private consumption in most CESEE countries, with the exception of Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Baltic states. In turn, investment activity is suppressed by the lasting, and in some cases even deteriorating, perception of uncertain future prospects and by underutilized capacities in an environment characterized by weak demand – even though large parts of the corporate sector are awash with liquidity. In these circumstances, the investment dynamics in the region has been shaped by public investment projects, frequently supported by EU transfers (first of all in Estonia and Romania). The expected marginal improvement in economic performance in some CESEE countries in 2013 is largely due to the somewhat less restrictive fiscal policy (e.g. the Czech Republic) or a better performance of agriculture (Serbia, Romania). However, in Poland and Slovakia economic growth will decelerate, while Slovenia and Croatia will be unable to avoid another recession this year – notwithstanding the likely beneficial impact of inflows of EU funds in the latter case. The near-term economic prospects are generally better on the ‘fringes’ of the CESEE region the Baltic states, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey, which are less dependent on the troubled euro area and are in no rush (or need) to pursue fiscal consolidation. In Ukraine, economic prospects are dependent on a timely and ‘controlled’ currency devaluation, which would be crucial for the badly needed growth re-balancing. Even under the most optimistic scenario, in the medium and long term the CESEE countries will be generally unable to replicate the growth rates observed prior to the 2008-2009 crisis. In the Western Balkans, the bleak growth prospects and the high levels of unemployment may eventually imperil the fragile social and political stability of these countries. The newly released wiiw Forecast Report also contains ‘special topics’ dealing in-depth with (1) regional and EU-wide fiscal policy issues, (2) the extent of deleveraging in the household, corporate and banking sectors, and (3) the patterns of structural adjustment and unit labour cost developments in the CESEE countries. Last but not least, it includes for the first time a country report and statistical information on Kosovo. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU member states, Southeast Europe, financial crisis, Balkans, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, for- eign trade, competitiveness, debt, deleveraging, exchange rates, fiscal consolidation |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:11&r=cis |
| By: | Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Monika Schwarzhappel (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Content The first part of the publication contains an analysis of the latest FDI trends. The analysis highlights the modest recovery of FDI in 2012. The second part of the publication contains two sets of tables Tables I total flow and stock data, FDI flow by components and FDI income, FDI per capita and other FDI reference parameter (2004-2012) Tables II detailed FDI data by economic activity and by country (last four years) The main sources of data are the central banks of the individual Central, East and Southeast European countries. General Description General Description (PDF) Abstract The first part of this report provides an analysis of the 2012 FDI trends in 22 CESEE countries, pointing to a modest recovery. The strongest growth in inflows in 2012 was observed in the NMS (+35%) following a year with extremely low inflows. But the exceptionally high FDI inflow in the Czech Republic and Hungary was mainly the result of capital in transit and financial flows not resulting in fixed investments. The decline in the SEE countries was 22% following a relatively successful year and caused by a one-time capital withdrawal from Serbia. Inflows to the CIS remained flat (+1%) and were strongly biased upwards by round-tripping Russian capital. FDI inflows declined in twelve CESEE countries, in line with the generally depressed business sentiment and unimpressive economic growth. The latter is even more reflected in the low number of greenfield investment projects and in their small size. Forecasts for economic growth in 2013 and first quarter trends in FDI flows and greenfield projects suggest a serious setback of FDI in most CESEE countries, with the possible exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Kazakhstan. As another main cause, it is expected that Russian companies will be more reluctant and also restricted to use Cyprus as a stepping stone for investments at home thus both the outflow and inflow of Russian FDI is expected to diminish. The second part of this report contains two sets of tables Tables I cover FDI flow and stock data, FDI flows by components and related income; Tables II provide detailed FDI data by economic activity and country. The main sources of data are the central banks of the individual Central, East and Southeast European countries. The wiiw FDI Report is the new title of the former publication ‘wiiw Database on Foreign Direct Investment in Central, East and Southeast Europe’. The printed report and the analysis therein is based upon the wiiw FDI Database which will be available online from July 2013. Examples Table of contents (PDF) NEW SERVICE The wiiw FDI Database is available online from July 2013 This new online access with a modern query tool supports easy search and download of data. The wiiw FDI Database contains the full set of FDI data with time series starting form 1990 as far as available. Access to wiiw FDI Database |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, balance of payments, income repatriation, statistics, new EU Member States, Southeast Europe, CIS |
| JEL: | C82 F21 O57 P23 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fdirep:fdi:2013-05&r=cis |
| By: | Yefimov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | Academic economists have a strong influence on political discourse in Russia by delivering through courses of "Economic theory" and "Institutional economics" very harmful conceptual elements for political discourse. This article proposes to change radically these courses in such a way that, instead of self-interest of the economic man, consideration of social relations exclusively through the prism of exchange, society and community as fictions, the state as a bandit and the opportunistic behavior as a norm, they would provide students with very different images of socio-economic interactions. Discursive paradigm in economics, the foundations of which were laid by John Commons, allows us to take another look at the institutions, transactions, contractual relationships, property, enterprises, and institutional change, and the contemporary communitarian philosophy (Michael Sandel, Alasdair Macintyre, Charles Taylor) and the historical, discursive and constructivist institutionalism in political science (Theda Skocpol, Vivien Schmidt, Colin Hay) make it possible to have different interpretations of the state, law, and civil society. This article calls for a return of institutional economics to the humanistic position of its founders and for a strong critic of the so-called "new institutional economics" and "new political economy". The author, following John Dewey, proposes to economists to feed by the results of their empirical research an enlarged political discourse, which will involve the general public. Among these empirical studies the institutional monitoring should play a central role. Performing institutional monitoring means doing research in the framework of the discursive paradigm, which is ontologically and epistemologically the adequate form of research for understanding the socio-economic-political realities. |
| Keywords: | morality, community, discourse, Schmoller, Commons, economic discipline as a philosophy and as a science, reform of economic discipline |
| JEL: | A1 A11 A12 A13 A14 A2 A20 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49024&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary Continued weak external demand and uncertain recovery of investments will allow for only modest growth prospects for the countries of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) this year. Slovenia, Croatia and the Czech Republic will remain in recession. Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic countries will experience a slowdown of growth. Over the next two years, growth will speed up, but will remain below potential for most CESEE countries except Kazakhstan and likely Turkey. The emerging institutional and policy framework in the EU that reflects unresolved dilemmas about the process of deepening may put in question the model of convergence growth. Widening of the EU is, in contrast, proceeding with Croatia acceding and the intention to start negotiations with Serbia being announced. However, given the worsening labour markets, social and political risks may be on the rise. These are the main results of the newly released medium-term growth forecast for the region by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw). wiiw expects slow recovery this year within a mostly restrictive policy framework. Some acceleration, due in part to an improved external environment for EU and CESEE economies and in part to growth of investments, is forecast for the medium term. However, the set of better performers has shrunk, with Poland’s and Slovakia’s performance coming more in line with the growing number of slowly recovering economies. Recovery is slowing down in the Baltic region. There are still some countries that are struggling with recession, such as Slovenia and Croatia and also the Czech Republic within the CESEE group. Stability issues are also still being faced in a number of Balkan countries, e.g. Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina; by contrast, Albania and Kosovo are managing to stay out of recession and on a relatively elevated growth path. Russia and Ukraine are seeing either a slowdown of growth or prospects for stagnation and slow recovery, while positive news keep coming from Kazakhstan and faster growth resuming in Turkey. By and large, Central European countries are relying on a positive contribution from net exports and investments, the Balkan countries on recovery of industrial production and exports, Russia and Ukraine, and perhaps also Turkey, rely on a continued positive contribution of household consumption, and Kazakhstan on receipts from sales of oil and gas. None of these factors is particularly strong – hence weak GDP growth expectations prevail. Last but not least, the contribution of public consumption and investments tends to be rather limited throughout the whole of Europe. Monetary policy has been stabilising due to the assertive communication rather than action by the European Central Bank (ECB) and due to mostly relaxing actions by the other central banks in CESEE. However, these have affected recovery to a lesser extent because of the continuing process of consolidation in the financial sector. While sovereigns have seen a decline in the spreads of their yields, a similar calming down of interest rates in the private sector has been insufficient to support stronger credit activity, especially when it comes to small and medium-sized enterprises. This can be expected to continue to be a drag on growth of investments and thus also on overall GDP growth. Within the institutional and policy framework geared towards elimination of external and internal macroeconomic imbalances, the bulk of the structural adjustment is happening in the labour markets. Employment rates have declined in most countries while unemployment in particular among the youth and the long-term unemployed is on the rise. This is particularly damaging in the Balkans where the labour markets have been in depression even before the eruption of the crisis. There are few if any indications of a turnaround in the labour markets in the medium term. The strengthened emphasis on the correction of imbalances, reflected in the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure of the EU, may turn out to be harmful for the countries benefiting from EU transfers due to increased stress on using these funds as a disciplining device. In addition to fiscal imbalances, which should prove less of a problem to many CESEE countries, the correction of external and labour market imbalances may turn out to be more difficult to address. Moreover, balanced growth, implying less reliance on cross-border financing, may be a problem for countries that cannot move to a new growth model by mobilising more domestic savings. The processes of deepening and widening of the EU are proceeding, with deepening being more at a project- and institution-building stage while widening is getting a new boost by the accession of Croatia and by the start of accession negotiations with Serbia early next year. Croatia’s accession to the common market also means its departure from the regional free trade area, the CEFTA. Estimates of trade and welfare effects point to relatively mild overall negative consequences for Croatia in the short run. Those should be outweighed by more general positive effects of EU membership in the medium and long run. In a nutshell the CESEE region faces a slow recovery in the short and medium term with unclear prospects for long-run growth and economic convergence. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU member states, Southeast Europe, financial crisis, Balkans, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, foreign trade, competitiveness, debt, deleveraging, exchange rates, fiscal consolidation |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:12&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Zdenek Lukas; Anton Mihailov; Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Josef Pöschl; Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | External determinants Two key factors currently affect the economic prospects of CESEE the crisis in the euro area and movements in the commodity prices. For Russia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine declining world market prices of energy carriers, steel and other basic commodities are vital. For most of the countries in Central and Southeast Europe, the strength of external demand for their manufacturing exports and their competitiveness are much more important. The European Union constitutes a natural external environment not only through mutual trade, capital and labour flows, but also through ‘intangible links’ regulations/directives enacted ‘in Brussels’. The economic crisis in the euro area is perceived as being primarily about possible insolvencies of peripheral euro area countries. The range of possibilities opened up by sovereign insolvencies is vast. However, a muddling-through scenario still seems the most realistic prospect. Insistence that the ‘problematic’ euro area countries – but possibly also others in the EU (including the new member states) – should enact the austerity measures in order to reduce public debt levels continues to set the tone throughout Europe, as epitomized by the Fiscal Compact. But, were the Fiscal Compact to be actually obeyed, the euro area – and the EU as a whole, including the new member states – would plunge into an era of permanent stagnation with high and rising unemployment. Euro area enters recession, CESEE to follow? Given the prevailing fiscal consolidation policy mix it is not surprising that while the world economy recovers, the euro area returns to recession. Consolidation fever has spread to the new member states – including those that formally refused to subscribe to the Fiscal Compact such as the Czech Republic. Given the trend towards fiscal consolidation, it is natural to expect that the new member states will also slow down in 2012. Chances of faster growth in 2013 remain uncertain – both in the new and old member states. The EU Spring forecast is cautiously optimistic. Our forecasts for the new member states in 2013 and afterwards are also cautiously optimistic. That optimism, however, is based on the assumption that the fiscal consolidation fever will abate – both within the euro area and outside. After the deep recession that beset almost all CESEE countries in 2009, most of them recorded a moderate recovery in 2010. However, on a quarterly basis, growth has been generally slowing down since the third quarter of 2011. In a number of countries (e.g. Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Serbia, Slovenia) the most recent quarterly GDP growth rates are already negative. The recent output contractions do not appear to be exceptions, but point to the possibility of more protracted periods of recession occurring in the CESEE region. Among the star-performers of 2011 (Turkey, the three Baltic countries and Kazakhstan), growth will also slow down. Poland, Slovakia, Ukraine and Russia, all of which displayed steady growth in the biennium 2010-2011, are gradually losing steam as well. External rebalancing is proving temporary Merchandise exports are expected to rise in 2012. This view reflects an assumption of a shallow and short-lived recession in the euro area. In the Baltic countries, as well as in Romania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Ukraine, even with relatively slow growth in domestic demand, foreign trade will not be in a position to support overall GDP growth in 2012. The frailty of a proper industrial base capable of supplying higher value-added exports may be one reason for this. Furthermore, those countries’ real exchange rates have also started moving in the wrong direction once again, adding to the deterioration in cost competitiveness. The return of a rise in trade deficits in the Baltic countries (and some other countries) indicates that the ‘rebalancing’ of 2009 may have been a temporary phenomenon. Household consumption and investment steady on the ‘fringes’, sagging in the ‘core’ Investment growth in 2012 is expected to remain quite sluggish throughout the ‘core’ countries (even declining in some of them). Only in the period 2013-2014 is investment growth expected to recover across the new EU member states and in the Balkans. Investment is forecast to remain steady throughout 2012-2014 in Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine. In 2012, consumption growth will sag still more in most new EU member states and across the Balkans. Even in the Baltic countries, consumption growth is expected to slow down. Threats and opportunities At present, the major and most realistic danger facing the majority of CESEE countries is that they will stick to their commitment to fiscal consolidation, even if investment, consumption and exports continue to weaken. For that threat to materialize, neither the euro area nor the EU as whole need necessarily plunge into some dramatic crisis. For that danger to become reality, it is sufficient for Europe to continue slowing down, while fiscal consolidation is still being demanded of its old, new or prospective members. Of course, some spectacular collapse of the euro area/EU (as we know it) could perhaps have truly devastating effects on most CESEE countries – via trade, capital flows, transfers and migration. Chaotic developments would then follow in its wake, with repercussions for the global economy at large. However, we may be unqualified to predict events, should chaos erupt. A scenario more optimistic than that possible under ‘muddling through’ may still be beyond the horizon. Muddling through is unlikely to yield satisfactory results, but desirable changes may still eventually come about. But those changes would have to start in ‘high places’ in the leading EU countries and leading European institutions. Should the political and economic elites of Europe start acknowledging the negative consequences of fiscal austerity and efficiently work for an overhaul of EU institutions (including the ECB), things might start looking more promising for Europe as a whole – and hence for the CESEE countries as well. |
| Keywords: | Central and East European new EU member states, Southeast Europe, GIIPS, financial crisis, future EU member states, Balkans, former Soviet Union, Turkey, economic forecasts, employment, foreign trade, competitiveness, debt, deleveraging, exchange rates, inflation, monetary policy, rebalancing, fiscal consolidation, austerity policy |
| JEL: | C33 C50 E20 E29 F34 G01 G18 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:10&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | (Reprint from WIFO-Monatsberichte, Vol. 86, No. 5, May 2013) Zusammenfassung 2012 entwickelte sich die Wirtschaft in den Ländern Mittel-, Ost- und Südosteuropas insgesamt enttäuschend. Aufgrund der Stagnation der Exporte und der gedämpften Binnennachfrage gerieten acht Länder der Region in die Rezession (Tschechien, Ungarn, Slowenien und die meisten Westbalkanländer). In den anderen Ländern wuchs das BIP zwar, aber allgemein nur schwach. Auch in Ländern, deren Wirtschaft bisher von der Krise im Euro-Raum nicht betroffen gewesen war (z. B. Russland, Polen, Ukraine, Türkei), verlangsamte sich die Wachstumsdynamik in den letzten Monaten immer mehr. English Summary Central, East and Southeast Europe Caught by the EU Crisis On the whole, 2012 was a disappointing year for the economies of Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE), confirming fears of a double-dip recession in the euro area adversely impacting large parts of the CESEE region. This rather poor performance stands in sharp contrast to the better dynamics in other emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, and underscores the dependence of large parts of the CESEE region on the troubled euro area – not least in terms of policies pursued. Weak exports and suppressed domestic demand pushed nearly half of the CESEE economies into recession in 2012, including the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and nearly all Western Balkan countries. Elsewhere in the region, growth continued but was generally unspectacular. Also in countries that hitherto had been relatively immune to the euro area crisis (such as Russia, Poland, Ukraine and Turkey), growth dynamics has been progressively decelerating since the second half of 2012. The weakness of domestic demand in most CESEE countries is partly attributed to the anaemic credit dynamics, as western banks, which dominate the banking sector of most CESEE countries, are reducing their local exposure, not least in order to comply with the stricter Basel III capital adequacy requirements. In addition, the newly adopted EU fiscal pact is forcing many CESEE governments to pursue budget consolidations. High unemployment and stagnant wages, coupled with fiscal austerity and the ongoing household deleveraging, continue to weigh heavily on the dynamics of private consumption in most CESEE countries. In turn, investment activity is suppressed by the lasting perception of uncertain future prospects and underutilised capacities in an environment characterised by weak demand. This year, economic growth in the CESEE countries is likely to pick up slightly – largely on account of somewhat less restrictive fiscal policies in some countries (Poland, Czech Republic) and a better performance of agriculture in others (Serbia, Romania), although Slovenia and Croatia will still be unable to avoid another recession. The near-term economic prospects are generally better in the eastern part of the CESEE region, which is less dependent on the troubled euro area and is in no rush (or need) to pursue fiscal consolidation. Even under the most optimistic scenario, in the medium and long term the CESEE countries will be generally unable to replicate the growth rates observed prior to the 2008-09 crisis. |
| Keywords: | transitional economies, comparative study, economic growth, fiscal and monetary policy, macroeconomic forecast, macroeconomic analysis |
| JEL: | P2 O57 E17 O4 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:2013-06&r=cis |
| By: | Nick, Sebastian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln) |
| Abstract: | In this study, the informational efficiency of the European natural gas market is analyzed by empirically investigating price formation and arbitrage efficiency between spot and futures markets. Econometric approaches are specified that explicitly account for nonlinearities and the low liquidity-framework of the considered gas hubs. The empirical results reveal that price discovery takes place on the futures market, while the spot price subsequently follows the futures market price. Furthermore, there is empirical evidence of significant market frictions hampering intertemporal arbitrage. UK’s NBP seems to be the hub at which arbitrage opportunities are exhausted most efficiently, although there is convergence in the degree of intertemporal arbitrage efficiency over time at the hubs investigated. |
| Keywords: | natural gas market; informational efficiency; liquidity; nonlinear causality; threshold error correction; Kalman filter |
| JEL: | C58 G14 Q40 Q41 |
| Date: | 2013–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2013_014&r=cis |