nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2013‒08‒05
six papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Money-based inflation risk indicator for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach By Elena Deryugina; Alexey Ponomarenko
  2. Association between obesity and selected morbidities: A study of BRICS By Ankita, Ankita Shukla; Kaushal, Kaushalendra Kumar; Abhishek, Abhishek Singh
  3. BRICS:The rise of sleeping giant By Pavnesh Kumar
  4. Gasoline price as social phenomenon By Kossov, Vladimir; Kossova, Elena
  5. Economic Miracle of Post-Soviet Space: Why Uzbekistan Managed to Achieve What No Other Post-Soviet State Achieved By Popov, Vladimir
  6. PECO : au ralenti By Marion Cochard

  1. By: Elena Deryugina; Alexey Ponomarenko
    Abstract: The authors estimate a dynamic factor model for the cross-section of monetary and price indicators for Russia.  They extract the common part of the dataset's fluctuations and decompose it into structural shocks.  One of the shocks identified has empirical properties (in terms of impulse response functions) that are fully in line with the theoretically expected relationship between money growth and inflation, confirming that the process identified has the capacity for economic interpretation.  Based on the finding, recent inflationary developments in Russia are decomposed into those that are associated with changes in monetary stance and other shorter-lived shocks.  The analysis in this paper is based on the course material taught in the CCBS course: 'Applied Bayesian Econometrics for central bankers'. 
    Keywords: Money-based, inflation, Russia, structural dynamic factor model
    Date: 2013–04
  2. By: Ankita, Ankita Shukla; Kaushal, Kaushalendra Kumar; Abhishek, Abhishek Singh
    Abstract: Context: Over the past few decades, obesity has reached epidemic proportions, and is a major contributor to the global burden of chronic diseases and disability. There is little evidence on obesity related co-morbidities in BRICS countries. Objectives: The first objective is to examine the factors associated with overweight and obesity in four of the five BRICS countries (China, India, Russia and South Africa). The second is to examine the linkage of obesity with selected morbidities. Methods: We used data from the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) survey conducted in China, India, Russia and South Africa during 2007-10. Respondents with a body mass index (BMI)>= 25 but <30 were coded as overweight, and those with BMI>= 30 as obese. Bivariate analysis, binary logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression are used in the analysis. The morbidities included in the analysis are Hypertension, Diabetes, Angina, Stroke, Arthritis and Depression. Results: The prevalence of obesity was highest in South Africa (35%) followed by Russia (27%), China (5%) and India (3%). The prevalence of obesity was significantly higher in females as compared to males in all the countries. While the wealth quintile was significantly associated with obesity in India, Russia and South Africa, engaging in work requiring physical activity was significantly associated with obesity in China and South Africa. Overweight/obesity was significantly associated with morbidities such as Hypertension, Angina, Diabetes and Arthritis in all the four countries. In comparison, overweight/obesity was not associated with Stroke and Depression in any of the four countries included in the analysis. Conclusion: The data demonstrates a high prevalence of obesity in South Africa and Russia. Overweight/obesity was significantly associated with Hypertension, Angina, Diabetes and Arthritis.
    Keywords: overweight, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, angina, stroke, arthritis, depression, BRICS
    JEL: I1 I12
    Date: 2013–07–19
  3. By: Pavnesh Kumar
    Abstract: The combined territories of the BRICS countries account for nearly 30 percent of the world's total land area and 42 percent of the world's total population . In 2010, the group contributed 18 percent of the world's GDP and 15 percent of world trade. Among the BRICS members, China has been the "world factory" for many years, Brazil is a globally important "raw material base," Russia is an important world "petrol station," India is the world's well-known "office," while South Africa is "Africa's resources reservoir."This paper intents to highlights the growing influence of BRICS in the world economy and its role in the changing world economic order.It also intends to discuss the future ,issues and challenges ahead for BRICS and the standing of India in this group. Key words: economic growth, Emerging markets, structural change, BRIC countries
    Date: 2013–06
  4. By: Kossov, Vladimir; Kossova, Elena
    Abstract: The gasoline price transform into the social phenomenon by its role in economy. For the state, it is a source of budget revenue through indirect taxes, which in majority of countries make up most of the price. The upper bound of a gasoline price is limited by risk of mass protests. For the citizens a gasoline price affects the cost of living. The lower bound of this price is limited to possibility of the authorities to subsidize it. Balances of interests of the authorities and citizens are estimated for the gasoline prices deviating from the normal. Normal gasoline prices are offered as standard, with respect to which of the actual prices can distinguish high and low. We propose an econometric model for the estimation of the normal price. The analysis of the results of estimation is presented for 97 countries and the data for 2000, 2004 and 2006. Showing the problems emerging in Russia
    Keywords: gasoline price; normal price; budget revenue; oil rent; benefits and loses; mass protests
    JEL: C2 C23 D4 D49 E31 H2 H21
    Date: 2013–07–30
  5. By: Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: Uzbekistan is not usually considered an economic success story, but in fact it is: its GDP increased since 1989 more than in any other post-communist country, except for China, Vietnam and Turkmenistan. The success of Uzbekistan is very much similar to the Chinese – gradual economic reforms with the preservation of the capacity of state institutions, good macroeconomic policy and export oriented industrial policy. What makes Uzbekistan unique is that no other former Soviet republic managed to follow this route. There are countries with healthy state finances and low inflation (most FSU states), there are some countries with reasonable state capacity (Baltics, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan), but there are no countries that keep undervalued exchange rate together with strong tax stimuli for export of manufactures. Uzbek example shows that such a policy pays off.
    Keywords: Transition, Growth, Export orientation, Industrial policy, Uzbekistan
    JEL: O1 O14 O5 O57 P5 P52
    Date: 2013–07–30
  6. By: Marion Cochard (OFCE)
    Abstract: Le ralentissement de l’activité s’est poursuivi dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale au second semestre 2012, à la fois du fait de l’intégration commerciale et financière avec la zone euro et des politiques de restriction budgétaire. À la fin de l’année 2012, aucun pays de la zone, à l’exception de la Pologne, n’avait retrouvé son niveau d’activité d’avant-crise. La persistance d’indicateurs conjoncturels au plus bas et de perspectives moroses pour la zone euro annoncent une année 2013 à l’image de 2012 (+0,7 % en 2012 sur l’ensemble de la zone), avant un léger mieux en 2014. Toujours tirée par le haut niveau du prix des matières premières, la Russie devra quant à elle faire face à un risque de surchauffe en limitant l’accès au crédit, ralentissant ainsi la croissance en dessous de 4 % à l’horizon de la prévision.
    Date: 2013–04

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