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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Vladimir Mau (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with the trends in the world and Russian economies towards development of a new post-crisis system, including technological and structural transformation. Three main scenarios of Russian economic development (conservative, innovation and acceleration) are discussed basing on historical analysis of Russian economic performance since 1970-s when oil boom started. On this basis key challenges of economic policy in 2013 are discussed |
| Keywords: | economic growth, global crisis, modernization, structuãal adaptation, regulation, welfare state |
| JEL: | O52 P27 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0057&r=cis |
| By: | Korhonen, Iikka (BOFIT); Peresetsky , Anatoly (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | We empirically test the dependence of the Russian stock market on the world stock market and world oil prices in the period 1997:10–2012:02. We also consider three Eastern European stock markets (Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary), as well as two markets outside Europe (Turkey and South Africa). We apply a rolling regression to identify periods when oil prices or stock indices in the US and Japan were important. Surprisingly, oil prices are not significant for the Russian stock market after 2006. A TGARCH-BEKK model is employed to assess the degree of correlation between markets, taking into account the global market stochastic trend. We find that correlation between markets increased between 2000 and 2012. Growth was especially high in Eastern European markets during 2004–2006, which is likely connected with the EU accession of these countries in 2004. |
| Keywords: | Russian stock market; oil; financial market integration; stock market returns; news; emerging markets; transition economies |
| JEL: | C58 G10 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2013–03–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2013_004&r=cis |
| By: | Anikin, Vasiliy |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to determine what challenges Russia faces upon transitioning to a competitive system. As a main characteristic of the labour force, the motivation to work is studied in terms of three dimensions: 1) the value of current work, 2) orientation to a potential job, and 3) aspirations with respect to work. Analysis revealed the existence in Russia of homogeneous groups of workers, in terms of their motivation; this status quo is typical of both late-industrial and postindustrial societies. The author therefore argues for the complexity of ‘competitive areas’ and the simplicity of ‘noncompetitiveness’ in contemporary Russia. Meanwhile, the socioeconomic limitations to the proliferation of intrinsic and nonhygiene motivations on the one hand, and the predominance of monetary and extrinsic motivations on the other, provide evidence that one should consider Russia a country in protracted transition. |
| Keywords: | transition, modernization, motivation to work, labour force, Russia |
| JEL: | O10 P29 P39 |
| Date: | 2013–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:45292&r=cis |
| By: | Anikin, Vasiliy |
| Abstract: | The given paper assumes the existence of a correlation between the occupational structure and the mode of social and economic development of a country. It is shown that the modern stage of development in advanced economies could be described by the post-industrial phase with (a) the specific proportions in the occupational structure (predominance of professional managers and technical experts); (b) particular nature of work and the corresponding extent of labor division according to specialization and qualification (highly skilled labor with broad specialization and a new criterion of creativity included within qualifications). Within the certain historical framework these indicators, combined onto the entire scheme, produce the criteria to distinct different types of socio-economic development and arrange them in consistent order. The analysis of occupational structure of Russian population shows that the reforms of 1990s have facilitated the process of deindustrialization alongside with the growth of semi- and low-skilled jobs. According to the scheme, Russia seems to have reached the stage of the development that is similar to one of the 1950–1960s in the USA and the Europe. |
| Keywords: | Occupational structure; Socio-economic development; Knowledge based economy; Industrialization;Labour potential; Modernization; Russia |
| JEL: | J21 O14 P20 |
| Date: | 2013–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:45027&r=cis |
| By: | Giannelli, Gianna Claudia (University of Florence); Mangiavacchi, Lucia (University of the Balearic Islands); Piccoli, Luca (University of the Balearic Islands) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate whether excessive parental alcohol consumption leads to a reduction of child welfare. To this end, we analyse whether alcohol consumption decreases time spent by parents looking after their children and working. Using the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on mono-nuclear families with children under fifteen years of age, for whom we estimate a model of intra-household allocation of time. We find that husbands' alcohol consumption has a negative impact on their weekly hours spent doing child care, while no significant effect is observed for mothers' alcohol consumption. We interpret these findings as evidence of a negative impact of fathers' alcohol consumption on child welfare. |
| Keywords: | child care, time allocation, alcohol consumption, labor supply, Russia |
| JEL: | D1 I1 J13 J22 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7246&r=cis |
| By: | Semko Roman |
| Abstract: | The goal of the paper is to explain and analyze whether Central Bank of Russia should include commodity prices into the lists of variables they try to respond. We augmented New Keynesian DSGE small open economy model of Dib (2008) with the oil stabilization fund and new Taylortype monetary policy rule and estimated the model using Bayesian econometrics. The results show that Central Bank’s mild response to the oil price changes may be desired in terms of minimizing fluctuations of inflation and output only in the case when stabilization fund would be absent, while this response is redundant when “excess” oil revenues can be saved in the fund. |
| JEL: | E12 E52 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2013–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/03e&r=cis |
| By: | Franziska Holz; Philipp M. Richter; Ruud Egging |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market until 2050. Three pathways of natural gas consumption in a future low-carbon energy system in Europe are envisaged: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, along the results of the PRIMES model for the EMF decarbonization scenarios; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas consumption, along the lines of the IEA (2012) World Energy Outlook's New Policy Scenario; and iii) a temporary increase of natural gas use as a bridge technology, followed by a strong decrease after 2030. Our results show that import infrastructure and intra-European transit capacity currently in place or under construction are largely sufficient to accommodate the import needs of the EMF decarbonization scenarios, despite the reduction of domestic production and the increase of import dependency. However, due to strong demand in Asia which draws LNG and imports from Russia, Europe has to increasingly rely on pipeline exports from Africa and the Caspian region from where new pipelines are built. Moreover, pipeline investments open up new import and transit paths, including reverse flow capacity, which improves the diversification of supplies. In the high gas consumption scenario similar pipeline links are realized-though on a larger scale, doubling the costs of infrastructure expansion. In the bridge technology scenario, the utilization rates of (idle) LNG import capacity can be increased for the short period of temporary strong natural gas demand. |
| Keywords: | natural gas, climate change, infrastructure, equilibrium modeling |
| JEL: | Q31 Q47 Q54 C61 D43 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1273&r=cis |
| By: | Shirokova Galina; Knatko Dmitri; Vega Gina |
| Abstract: | Recent research emphasizes the importance of the separation of ownership and control for growing threshold firms. Demand for specialized management knowledge by growing owner-run SMEs is usually resolved through the separation of ownership and control, using top management labor market and agency contracts. Under certain environmental institutional conditions, owners of SMEs from emerging markets face difficulties separating ownership and control. For example, the majority of Russian companies are run by their primary owners. In rare situations when separation of ownership and control formally occurs, high risk of economic fraud and owner’s fear often revert management succession to a default owner-control scenario. These conditions pose a threat for a growing threshold firm needing professional management knowledge assets. Using a dataset of 500 entrepreneurial companies from fast growing industries in St. Petersburg and Moscow, this study defines and studies threshold firms and also analyzes how various perceived characteristics of the institutional environment are influencing the probability of separation of ownership and control in threshold firms. According to the estimation results institutional factors such as poor security of ownership rights and misfit of company with formal regulatory norms have a negative impact on the probability of separation of ownership and control in threshold firms. As a result, threshold firms limit their growth possibilities since their access to specialized knowledge is limited to the knowledge base of the owner. |
| Date: | 2013–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/01e&r=cis |