nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2013‒03‒02
eleven papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Russian Banking System: Stability Factors In the Wake of 2008-2009 Crisis By Andrey Zubarev
  2. How much do tariffs matter? Evidence from the customs union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia By Asel Isakova; Zsoka Koczan; Alexander Plekhanov
  3. Republic of Armenia: Financial System Stability Assessment By International Monetary Fund
  4. Improving regional performance in Russia: a capability-based approach  By Fadi Farra; Nadia Klos; Uwe Schober; Olga Sigalova; Alexander Zhukov
  5. If Foreign Investment Is not Foreign: Round-Trip Versus Genuine Foreign Investment in Russia By Svetlana Ledyaeva; Päivi Karhunen; John Whalley
  6. Evolution of Russia’s Budgetary Policy in the 2000s: in Search of Financial Stability for the National Budget System By Sergey Drobyshevsky; Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev; Ilya Sokolov
  7. Energy institutional and organisational changes in EU and Russia: Revisiting gas relations By Sadek Boussena; Catherine Locatelli
  8. Quality of the Administration of Value-Added Tax in OECD countries and Russia By Alexander Knobel; Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev; Ilya Sokolov
  9. Natural-resource or Market-seeking FDI in Russia? An Empirical Study of Locational Factors Affecting the Regional Distribution of FDI Entries By K. Gonchar; Philipp Marek
  10. Russian Federation: Technical Note on Stress Testing of the Banking Sector By International Monetary Fund
  11. Do parents drink their children's welfare? A joint analysis of intra-household allocation of time. By Gianna Claudia Giannelli; Lucia Mangiavacchi; Luca Piccoli

  1. By: Andrey Zubarev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper discusses different approaches to theoretical and empirical models of bank defaults. Through constructed binary probabilistic models of defaults the paper reveals key factors which have an impact on the viability of Russian banks during the financial crisis of 2008 to 2009. Policy recommendations of the Central Bank of Russia and the banking supervision and regulation aimed at preventing bank defaults in the event of such crises in the future are formulated based on the model results.
    Keywords: bank default, financial crisis, binary models, policy of the Central Bank of Russia.
    JEL: E41 E51 E58 G21 G24 G28
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Asel Isakova (EBRD); Zsoka Koczan (University of Cambridge); Alexander Plekhanov (EBRD)
    Abstract: This paper looks at how the formation of a customs union between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia and associated changes in import schedules affected the structure of imports of the three member countries. The results suggest that the benefits of the new tariff policy to member countries are limited at best. Larger benefits could come from a gradual removal of non-tariff barriers.
    Keywords: customs union, imports, exports, tariffs, regional integration
    JEL: F14 F15
    Date: 2013–01
  3. By: International Monetary Fund
    Keywords: Financial system stability assessment;Financial sector;Banks;Basel Core Principles;Bank supervision;Stress testing;Liquidity management;Bank resolution;Insurance supervision;Capital markets;Pensions;Risk management;Armenia;
    Date: 2013–01–11
  4. By: Fadi Farra (Whiteshield Partners); Nadia Klos (Whiteshield Partners); Uwe Schober (Whiteshield Partners); Olga Sigalova (Whiteshield Partners); Alexander Zhukov (Whiteshield Partners)
    Abstract: Over the past 15 years, while China’s economy has become more complex and export driven, Russia's economy has become less complex and less competitive. Economic policies have so far largely failed to boost two key drivers of economic development: knowledge and capability building. Building on a new Regional Capability Index as well as historical and case study analysis, we develop a set of scenarios and recommended models to address capability gaps and enhance the competitiveness of Russia.
    Keywords: regional development, competitiveness, product space, innovation, Russia
    JEL: O11 O14 O33 F43
    Date: 2013–01
  5. By: Svetlana Ledyaeva; Päivi Karhunen; John Whalley
    Abstract: In this paper we study the phenomenon of round-trip investment between Russia and key offshore financial centers (OFCs), namely, Cyprus and British Virgin Islands, which is now a significant part of foreign investment into Russia. Using firm-level data we study differences in location strategies between round-trip and genuine foreign investors into Russia and the factors which determine the fraction of round-trip investment in total foreign investment into Russian regions. In empirical analysis we also distinguish between different firm size and industries. We conclude that round-trip investors tend to invest more in corrupt and resource abundant Russian regions compared to genuine foreign investors. Furthermore, the share of round-trip investment in total foreign investment is significantly higher in corrupt Russian regions. In general, these results point to the corruption component of round-trip investment. Second, we find that genuine foreign investors tend to invest more in regions with higher level of skilled labour and use sea ports more compared to round-trip investors, indicating that genuine foreign investment is more technologically advanced and more oriented towards international markets than round trip.
    Keywords: Russia;round-trip investment;capital flight;foreign investment
    JEL: F21 F23
    Date: 2013–02
  6. By: Sergey Drobyshevsky (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ilya Sokolov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper deals with 2008-2009 crisis which marked a new stage of Russia’s budgetary policy. Although the budget situation in Russia is presently much better than in the majority of the developed countries, reservation of high dependence on oil proceeds, observed trends in in the structure of expenditure obligations indicate the preservation of high risks of an unbalanced budget in long term perspective. Provision of budgetary and macroeconomic balance require adoption of urgent measures both in the sphere of tax policy and budget outlays.
    Keywords: budget policy, financial stability, tax policy, fiscal policy, national budget.
    JEL: E62 E52 E58 G01 H61 H68
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Sadek Boussena (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques (IEP) - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I); Catherine Locatelli (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques (IEP) - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I)
    Abstract: This article tries to shed light on why gas relations between the EU and Russia, which were previously stable, have deteriorated since the introduction of institutional changes in the two regions. After identifying the areas of divergence in the context of European gas market liberalization, we then attempt to examine them in the context of the differing approaches to structuring this sector. The model of vertically unbundled network industries promoted by the EU is no longer the one that Russia intends to implement in its gas sector, despite the big changes taking place in its domestic market. All this is happening in a context where the economic stakes are very high. For the EU and its gas companies, access to Russia's hydrocarbon resources is a key question. For Gazprom, the question is whether or not it can define strategies that are flexible enough to adapt to the changing conditions in the European gas market.
    Keywords: Russia ; European Union ; gas industry
    Date: 2013–04
  8. By: Alexander Knobel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ilya Sokolov (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the quality of VAT administration in OECD countries and Russia. Econometric analysis of the factors which influence the quality of VAT administration, demonstrate a positive effect of the level of institutional development on the efficiency of tax collection. However this tendency takes place only when there are no additional tax exemptions being implemented alongside the economic development where ex-emptions, in addition to causing a direct loss, complicate the taxation system and lower the quality of its administration
    Keywords: administration efficiency, optimal taxation, VAT.
    JEL: C23 C51 C53 H21 H23
    Date: 2013
  9. By: K. Gonchar; Philipp Marek
    Abstract: This paper conducts an empirical study of the factors that affect the spatial distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) across regions in Russia; in particular, this paper is concerned with those regions that are endowed with natural resources and market-related benefits. Our analysis employs data on Russian firms with a foreign investor during the 2000-2009 period and linked regional statistics in the conditional logit model. The main findings are threefold. First, we conclude that one theory alone is not able to explain the geographical pattern of foreign investments in Russia. A combination of determinants is at work; market-related factors and the availability of natural resources are important factors in attracting FDI. The relative importance of natural resources seems to grow over time, despite shocks associated with events such as the Yukos trial. Second, existing agglomeration economies encourage foreign investors by means of forces generated simultaneously by sector-specific and inter-sectoral externalities. Third, the findings imply that service-oriented FDI co-locates with extraction industries in resource-endowed regions. The results are robust when Moscow is excluded and for subsamples including only Greenfield investments or both Greenfield investments and mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
    Keywords: multinational enterprises, regional economic activity, exhaustible resources and economic development
    JEL: F23 R11 Q34
    Date: 2013–02
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Keywords: Bank supervision;Banking sector;Credit risk;Financial soundness indicators;Risk management;
    Date: 2011–11–29
  11. By: Gianna Claudia Giannelli (Department of Economics-University of Florence and IZA); Lucia Mangiavacchi (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Luca Piccoli (Universitat de les Illes Balears)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate whether excessive parental alcohol consumption leads to a reduction of child welfare. To this end, we analyse whether alcohol consumption decreases time spent by parents looking after their children and working. Using the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, the study focuses on mono-nuclear families with children under fifteen years of age, for whom we estimate a model of intra-household allocation of time. We find that husbands' alcohol consumption has a negative impact on their weekly hours spent doing child care, while no significant effect is observed for mothers' alcohol consumption. We interpret these findings as evidence of a negative impact of fathers' alcohol consumption on child welfare.
    Keywords: Child care, Time allocation, Alcohol consumption, Labor supply, Russia.
    JEL: D1 I1 J13 J22
    Date: 2013

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