nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2013‒01‒26
three papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Business Cycle Co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC Countries By Mustafa Yavuz Cakir and Alain Kabundi
  2. Polarisation et déclin de la classe moyenne : le cas de la Russie By Jérôme Lefranc
  3. Asia and The G20 By Peter Drysdale; Sébastien Willis

  1. By: Mustafa Yavuz Cakir and Alain Kabundi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the co-movement of business cycles between South Africa and the other BRICS countries namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the so-called BRICs. In particular, it the nature and key features of the co-movement of cycles of South African economy with cycles of the BRICs. It uses the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series during the period 1995Q2-2009Q4. We .nd signi.cant evidence of synchronization between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the business cycle, although the magnitude of co-movement di¤ers with each country. India portrays strong ties with South Africa over time. Moreover, Brazil, China, and Russia lead South Africa in the long-run, while India is contemporaneous. Further, the .ndings imply that the .rst two factors are BRICS factors while the third one is a US factor.
    Keywords: Dynamic Factor Model, International Business Cycles, Co-movement, BRICS
    JEL: C3 E32
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Jérôme Lefranc (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon Sorbonne)
    Abstract: Cet article contribue à l'analyse de la polarisation des revenus de Russie. Son objectif est d'évaluer l'évolution de la classe moyenne en Russie et de vérifier si les mécanismes publics de redistribution ont affecté son évolution au cours des deux dernières décennies. Nous appliquons deux indices de polarisation à des données sur le revenu des ménages, afin d'analyser l'évolution de la classe moyenne et de la polarisation en Russie. Les investigations empiriques menées dans le cadre de cette recherche sont basées sur les données de l'enquête Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey de 1995 à 2010. Au cours de la première période, qui se caractérise par une inégalité croissante des revenus, nous constatons que la classe moyenne a diminué et que la polarisation des revenus a augmenté, indiquant la constitution de groupes identifiés dans les tranches de revenu inférieures et supérieures. Dans la seconde période, où l'économie russe a souffert de la crise internationale, nous constatons que la classe moyenne a augmenté et que la polarisation a diminué. Le niveau de la polarisation des revenus est aussi élevé dans les zones rurales que dans les zones urbaines, ce qui suggère que le risque de tensions sociales existe dans les deux zones. Les résultats de cette étude confirment l'efficacité du mécanisme de redistribution pour réduire la polarisation de manière significative.
    Keywords: Polarisation, redistribution des revenus, classes sociales, Russie.
    Date: 2012–06
  3. By: Peter Drysdale (East Asia Bureau of Economic Research); Sébastien Willis (Crawford School of Public Policy)
    Abstract: The industrial transformation of Asia is a development on a scale unprecedented in human history. Following the industrial revolution towards the end of the eighteenth century, Europe and North America each in turn came to dominate the world economy and global power. Now economic weight is shifting towards population weight due to convergence in productivity. Asia is re-emerging as the world’s biggest element in the world economy. In 1980, Asia produced just under 20 per cent of global output measured at purchasing power parity. In 2010 that share was 35 per cent.2 This has happened in the space of a few decades whereas it took more than three quarters of a century for the industrial revolution to transform the European economy and political power. In the last twenty five years the economy of China, a nation of 1.3 billion, has grown by a factor of twenty. Twenty years from now, even ten years from now, Asia’s influence will be even greater. By 2025, one in two of the world’s population and four of the 10 largest economies will be in Asia. Asia is likely then to account for almost half of the world output and more than half world trade, with China accounting for half of that. In 2010, China’s per capita income was 30 per cent of the United States’; by 2050 it will be 55 per cent and India’s likely 42 per cent. The Chinese economy will likely be bigger than America’s within the coming half decade. Asia has never been of greater global significance, as global economic and strategic weight shifts from west to east. Global institutional frameworks are coming to reflect this, with six Asian members of the G20, including Australia. These developments set the context in which the G20 has emerged as a new fulcrum for global economic governance.
    Keywords: G20, China, India, G7, International policy coordination, the G20 summit, financial crisis
    Date: 2013–01

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