nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2012‒12‒06
six papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Empirical analysis of regional economic performance in Russia: Human capital perspective By Kufenko, Vadim
  2. Social Networks and Labor Market Inequality between Ethnicities and Races By Ott Toomet; Marco van der Leij; Meredith Rolfe
  3. Исследование возможностей и диапазонов применения методологии экономико-математического моделирования на основе тензорного анализа денежного поля: теоретические и методологические вопросы взаимодействия финансового и реального сектора экономики By Maslov, Alexander
  4. World Wheat Price Volatility: Selected Scenario Analyses By Wyatt Thompson; Garry Smith; Armelle Elasri
  5. The Millennium Development Goals post 2015: Towards a global social contract By van Bergeijk, Peter A.G.
  6. Relations UE-Russie : les enjeux d'une nouvelle architecture gazière By Catherine Locatelli

  1. By: Kufenko, Vadim
    Abstract: Having shown the important role of the Russian economy in the ex-USSR region by causality tests, we proceed to empirical analysis of growth and performance of the Russian regions. A dynamic panel data approach enabled us to obtain elasticity coefficients on proxies for convergence, physical capital, labour and innovation. After including human capital in the reformulated model we resolve endogeneity and reverse causality by introducing two instrumental variable approaches. Taking advantage of the Unified State Exam data we managed to successfully endogenize human capital by number (and share) of outperforming students and by the education index. The second approach helped to improve causality between instruments and human capital: the dates of first university foundation and distance to Moscow successfully explains human capital variations due to historical and spatial characteristics of a given region. --
    Keywords: growth regressions,regional analysis,human capital,system GMM,instrumental variables
    JEL: C01 E24 O40 O47
    Date: 2012
  2. By: Ott Toomet (Tartu University); Marco van der Leij (University of Amsterdam); Meredith Rolfe (London School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between unexplained racial/ethnic wage differentials on the one hand and social network segregation, as measured by inbreeding homophily, on the other hand. Our analysis is based on both U.S. and Estonian surveys, supplemented with Estonian telephone communication data. In case of Estonia we consider the regional variation in economic performance of the Russian minority, and in the U.S. case we consider the regional variation in black-white differentials. Our analysis finds a strong relationship between the size of the differential and network segregation: regions with more segregated social networks exhibit larger unexplained wage gaps.
    Keywords: social networks; wage differential; homophily; segregation; race; minorities
    JEL: J71 J31 Z13
    Date: 2012–11–13
  3. By: Maslov, Alexander
    Abstract: The paper analyzes practical application of money field theory, which was published before. Using econometric and linear modeling of time-series as a basis for the analysis of Canada’s financial indicators, inferences are made towards the country’s stability and actions monetary authorities have to take in order to increase the efficiency of interaction between financial and real sectors of an economy.
    Keywords: monetary policy; money supply; tensor analysis; linear operators
    JEL: E51 C02 E10 E60
    Date: 2012–03–24
  4. By: Wyatt Thompson; Garry Smith; Armelle Elasri
    Abstract: This study complements OECD analyses on commodity price volatility by providing quantitative assessments of the impact of two structural changes that a number of market observers have identified as contributing to world wheat market price volatility. The factors examined relate to changes in demand in the large emerging countries of the BRICs (comprising Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China), as a result of continuing economic growth and development and the effect of a lower levels of global wheat stocks in recent years. A further scenario extends the analysis of the role of stocks in price volatility by examining some effects of a hypothetical international buffer stockholding scheme to stabilise international wheat prices. Each scenario was undertaken with the Aglink-Cosimo model and the stochastic baseline as reported in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook, 2011-2020. The results suggest that both factors have contributed to the recorded volatility in world wheat markets in recent years. However the increase in market volatility arising from economic development and income growth is likely to occur gradually, while the moderating effect of larger stocks may only be fleeting. The stylised wheat buffer stock scheme with a price band may lead to slightly lower market volatility under highly specific conditions and constraining assumptions. These, however, have proven difficult to achieve and sustain in practice, as observed from past attempts to implement such schemes.
    Keywords: simulation, scenarios, volatility, variability, stochastic simulations, wheat, price, buffer stocks
    Date: 2012–11–19
  5. By: van Bergeijk, Peter A.G.
    Abstract: This paper deals with the outlook for the interrelated issues of global economic governance and the efficacy of development policies. These are relevant issues in view of the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). My main point is that the formulation of the post-2015 MDGs will have to recognize the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities that follow from the unprecedented growth of the so-called emerging markets since the 1990s. These economies do still have many characteristics of developing countries especially in remote and rural areas, but at the same time have very large modern sectors that compete successfully on the world markets. These successes are reflected in their sharply increasing shares in Gross Planet Product. Indeed, given the current growth slow-down in the advanced economies and the decoupled (and continuing) growth in the so-called BRIICS-countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) it is likely that 2015 will mark the historic fact that the developed countries no longer have a majority share in global production (Figure 1). It is therefore clear that the emerging markets will have (and, indeed, should have) a much more substantial role in global governance structures, including the international organizations. The issue at stake is whether this is favorable or unfavorable for global governance. Moreover, it is pertinent to investigate the implications of the changing economic conditions and to seek ways to make the best use of the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities.
    Keywords: MDGs; Millennium Development Goals
    Date: 2012–10
  6. By: Catherine Locatelli (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : FRE3389 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)
    Abstract: La sécurité gazière de l'UE est un facteur clé de sa politique énergétique. Les relations contractuelles basées sur des contrats de long terme dans les années 1970 et 1980 ont conduit à une relative stabilité des échanges d'énergie entre l'Union et ses fournisseurs de gaz. Mais depuis le milieu des années 1990, l'ouverture du marché gazier de l'UE à la concurrence et le désir de créer un marché unique du gaz conduit à une profonde réorganisation du secteur. Dans ce contexte, l'UE entend redéfinir la façon dont elle gère ses relations avec ses principaux fournisseurs, comme la Russie, en tentant d'imposer un modèle basé sur la concurrence, le dégroupage des industries de réseau et la privatisation. Ce " modèle européen " n'est pas celui que la Russie a l'intention de mettre en œuvre dans son secteur gazier, malgré les grands changements en cours sur son marché domestique. Une approche basée sur l'utilisation préférentielle des instruments étatiques s'oppose au multilatéralisme et aux principes de la concurrence de l'UE. Le pouvoir normatif de l'UE est donc en contradiction avec l'environnement institutionnel du secteur de l'énergie russe. Dans ce contexte, il est peu probable que les standards issus des règles et des institutions de l'UE puissent servir de cadre unique aux relations énergétiques entre l'UE et la Russie.
    Date: 2012–11

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