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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Korte, Niko (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the forecasting power of confidence indicators for the Russian economy. ARX models are fitted to the six confidence or composite indicators, which were then compared to a simple benchmark AR-model. The study used the output of the five main branches as the reference series. Empirical evidence suggests that confidence indicators do have forecasting power. The power is strongly influenced by the way which the indicator is constructed from the component series. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) and the OECD Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) were the best performers in terms of both the information criterion and forecasting accuracy. |
| Keywords: | confidence indicators; forecasting; Russia |
| JEL: | E37 P27 |
| Date: | 2012–07–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2012_015&r=cis |
| By: | Alexey Vedev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Andrey Kosarev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Keywords: | : business climate, economic growth, |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0014&r=cis |
| By: | Iwasaki, Ichiro |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset obtained from large-scale panel enterprise surveys conducted in 2005 and 2009, we clarify the survival status of Russian industrial firms before and after the global financial crisis and empirically examine the determinants of firm survival. The estimation of the Cox proportional hazard model provided evidence that the independence of company’s governance bodies, their human resource abundance, and assertiveness in corporate management are statistically significant factors affecting the survival probability of the surveyed firms. In particular, the board of directors and the board of auditors are likely to play a vital role in reducing the potential exit risk. We also found that there is a significant difference in the viewpoints of economic logic for firm survival held by independent firms and group companies |
| Keywords: | global financial crisis, firm survival, corporate governance, business group, Russia |
| JEL: | D22 G01 G33 G34 P34 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:37&r=cis |
| By: | Ekaterina Ponomareva (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The standard way to obtain the equation of New Keynesian Phillips curve is to linearize the equilibrium conditions of the Calvo model around a steady state with zero inflation. This approach is appropriate only in the low-inflation economics. This paper considers New Keynesian Phillips curve derived by linearizing the same equilibrium conditions around the time varying inflation trend. This model explains observed inflation persistence in different way and gives the different view on the ratio of agents with backward- and forward-looking expectations. In the paper estimated New Keynesian Phillips curve with time varying coefficients. This model shows that in Russia exist at least two sources of the inflation persistence. |
| Keywords: | : New Keynesian Phillips Curve, backward- and forward-looking expectations, inflation persistence, Bayesian VAR |
| JEL: | E12 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:0016&r=cis |
| By: | Coulibaly, Souleymane |
| Abstract: | The future development of the Tajik economy will be shaped by its comparative advantage on world markets. Exploiting comparative advantage enables an economy to reap gains from trade. Tajikistan's most important comparative advantage is its hydropower potential, which is far larger than the economy's domestic requirements. Yet, high capital costs of building hydropower plants and the unstable geopolitical situation in the transit region to reach South Asian export markets are constraining the realization of this potential. In the short term, the sector, which provides the greatest opportunity for Tajikistan to diversify its exports, appears to be agro-industry and, to a lesser extent, clothing. For both sectors, the main export market is likely to be the regional market. Tajikistan also has a comparative advantage in labor exports, which it has successfully exploited since the mid-2000s. To harness the full potential for labor exports will require improving the skills base of migrant workers and, in particular, their command of the Russian language. In the medium term, the paper argues that an export diversification strategy should tap the agglomeration economies generated by cities. More specifically, establishing Tajikistan's two leading cities, Dushanbe and Khujand, and their surroundings as enclave economies, linked to each other and to major regional markets through improved transport infrastructure so as to minimize production and transportation costs. The two enclave economies should provide the supporting services (finance, logistics, transport and storage) for private sector businesses. In the long term, regional cooperation on trade and transport facilitation could be pursued to reduce transport costs to attractive regional markets such as China, India, Russia and Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2012–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6125&r=cis |
| By: | William E. Griffiths and Gholamreza Hajargasht |
| Abstract: | We show how the generalized method of moments (GMM) framework developed in Hajargasht et al. (2012) for estimating income distributions from grouped data can be adapted for estimating mixtures. This approach can be used to estimate a mixture of any distributions where the moments and moment distribution functions of the mixture components can be expressed in terms of the parameters of those components. The required expressions for mixtures of lognormal and gamma densities are provided; in our empirical work we focus on estimation of mixtures of lognormal distributions. Two- and three-component lognormal mixtures are estimated for the income distributions of China rural, China urban, India rural, India urban, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Brazil and Indonesia. Their performance, in terms of goodness-of-fit and validity of moment conditions, is compared with that of a generalized beta (GB2) distribution. We find that the three-component lognormal mixture always outperforms the GB2 distribution, but the two-component mixture does not. For Brazil and Indonesia we have single observations, making it possible to compare maximum likelihood estimation of the mixtures from a complete set of single observations with GMM estimates obtained after grouping the data. Estimates from both procedures are found to be comparable, lending support to the usefulness of the GMM approach. |
| Keywords: | Lognormal distribution, Generalized beta distribution, Inequality measures |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mlb:wpaper:1148&r=cis |