nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2011‒10‒15
three papers chosen by
Koen Schoors
Ghent University

  1. Russia’s Natural Gas Export Potential up to 2050 By Sergey Paltsev
  2. Financial literacy and retirement planning : the Russian case By Klapper, Leora; Panos, Georgios A.
  3. Do Countries’ Endowments of Non-renewable Energy Resources Matter For FDI Attraction? A Cross-country Econometric Analysis By Susana Assunção; Aurora A. C. Teixeira; Rosa Forte

  1. By: Sergey Paltsev
    Abstract: Recent increases in natural gas reserve estimates and advances in shale gas technology make natural gas a fuel with good prospects to serve a bridge to a low-carbon world. Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world largest natural gas reserves and it is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Energy was one of the driving forces of Russia’s recent economic recovery from the economic collapse of 1990s. These prospects have changed drastically with a global recession and the collapse of oil and gas prices from their peaks of 2008. An additional factor is an ongoing surge in a liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity and a development of Central Asia’s and the Middle East gas supplies that can compete with Russian gas in its traditional (European) and potential (Asian) markets. To study the long-term prospects for Russian natural gas, we employ the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. While we consider the updated reserve estimates for all world regions, in this paper we focus on the results for Russian natural gas trade. The role of natural gas is explored in the context of several policy assumptions: with no greenhouse gas mitigation policy and scenarios of emissions targets in developed countries. Scenarios where Europe takes on an even more restrictive target of 80 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions relative to 2005 by 2050 and reduces its nuclearbased generation are also considered. Asian markets become increasingly important for natural gas exports and several scenarios about their potential development are considered. We found that over the next 20-40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 10-12 Tcf in 2030 and 15-18 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to 30 percent by 2030 and more than 50 percent in 2050. Patterns of international gas trade show increased flows to the Asian region from the Middle East, Central Asia, Australia and Russia. Europe’s reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia.
    Date: 2011–07
  2. By: Klapper, Leora; Panos, Georgios A.
    Abstract: The authors examine the association of financial literacy with retirement planning in Russia, a country with a relatively old and rapidly aging population, large regional disparities, and a rapidly emerging financial market. They find that only 36.3 percent of respondents in the sample understand interest compounding and only half can answer a simple question about inflation. In a country with widespread public pension provisions, they find that financial literacy is significantly and positively related to retirement planning involving private pension funds and schemes. Thus, along with encouraging the availability of private retirement plans, efforts to improve financial literacy could be pivotal to the expansion of the use of such schemes.
    Keywords: Financial Literacy,Pensions&Retirement Systems,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Gender and Law
    Date: 2011–10–01
  3. By: Susana Assunção (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto); Aurora A. C. Teixeira (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto; INESC Porto; OBEGEF); Rosa Forte (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto)
    Abstract: The vast existing empirical literature on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) puts forward an extensive list of determinants that may explain the investment of multinational firms in a particular location. However, only a small fraction of these studies concerns the importance of natural resources in attracting FDI. Despite their valuable scientific contribution, the few studies that deal with these two themes are limited in two regards: their focus on specific geographical regions (e.g., Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North African countries); and their neglect of Non-Renewable Energy Resources (NRER). In this context, this paper intends to add empirical evidence to this research area. Specifically, it analyzes the impact of countries’ endowments of NRER (introducing here a new measure - proven reserves of coal, gas and oil) in attracting FDI in a wide set of countries, controlling for other factors that are traditionally considered as influencing FDI (e.g., market size, human capital, openness of the economy, political stability). Examining 125 host countries (75 of which have proven reserves of NRER), the empirical results show that a country’s endowment of NRER does not matter for FDI attraction whereas some ‘traditional’ factors, most notably, human capital and openness of the economy emerge as critical determinants of FDI. These results have important and encouraging policy implications for countries’ development, in particular for less developed countries that are not endowed by nature with NRER. Indeed, our results firmly indicate that development, through FDI attraction, is possible as long as countries intentionally devote resources to the enhancement of their human capital and convincing efforts are made to open up their economies to international trade.
    Keywords: FDI, Eclectic Paradigm, determinants of FDI, Non-Renewable Energy Resources
    JEL: F21 F23 C4 O13
    Date: 2011–09

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