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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Chyong, C-K.; Hobbs, B. F. |
| Abstract: | The mathematical formulation of a large-scale equilibrium natural gas simulation model is presented. Although large-scale natural gas models have been developed and used for energy security and policy analysis quite extensively (e.g., Holz (2007), Egging et al. (2008), Holz et al. (2009) and Lise et al. (2008)), this model differs from earlier ones in its detailed representation of the structure and operations of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) gas sector. In particular, the model represents: (i) market power of transit countries, (ii) transmission pipelines in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Central Asia, (iii) differentiation among gas production regions in Russia, and (iv) gas trade relations between FSU countries (e.g., Gazprom’s re-exporting of Central Asian gas). To demonstrate the model, a social benefit-cost analysis of the Nord Stream gas pipeline project from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea is provided. It is found that Nord Stream project is profitable for its investors and the project also improves social welfare in all market power scenarios. Also, if transit countries (Ukraine and Belarus) exert substantial market power then the economic value of Nord Stream to its investors and to society improves substantially. We also found that the value of Nord Stream investment is rather sensitive to the degree of downstream competition in European markets and that lack of downstream competition might result in the negative value of the Nord Stream system to Gazprom. |
| JEL: | C61 C72 L13 L95 H43 |
| Date: | 2011–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1134&r=cis |
| By: | Claudia Senik (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - INRA, Université Paris-Sorbonne - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l'Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche); Pauline Grosjean (UC BERKELEY - Berkeley University of California - UC Berkeley) |
| Abstract: | This paper questions the conventional wisdom concerning the sequencing of political and economic reforms in developing countries. We exploit the specific situation of frontier-zones as well as the considerable regional variations in culture and economic development in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. We estimate the impact of market development and democratization on subjective political preferences. Taking advantage of a new survey conducted in 2006 by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank in 28 post-transition countries, we find a positive and significant effect of democracy on support for a market economy, but no effect of market liberalization on support for democracy. Our results are robust to the use of various indices of market liberalization and democracy and alternative measures of political preferences. |
| Keywords: | market and democracy ; political preferences ; spatial regression discontinuity ; transition economies |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00596078&r=cis |