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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Chyong, C.K.; Noël, P.; Reiner, D.M. |
| Abstract: | We calculate the total cost of building Nord Stream and compare its levelised unit transportation cost with the existing options to transport Russian gas to western Europe. We find that the unit cost of shipping through Nord Stream is clearly lower than using the Ukrainian route and is only slightly above shipping through the Yamal-Europe pipeline.<br><br> Using a large-scale gas simulation model we find a positive economic value for Nord Stream under various scenarios of demand for Russian gas in Europe. We disaggregate the value of Nord Stream into project economics (cost advantage), strategic value (impact on Ukraine’s transit fee) and security of supply value (insurance against disruption of the Ukrainian transit corridor). The economic fundamentals account for the bulk of Nord Stream’s positive value in all our scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Nord Stream, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Natural gas, Pipeline, Gazprom |
| JEL: | L95 H43 C63 |
| Date: | 2010–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1051&r=cis |
| By: | Holzmann, Robert |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a World Bank led and Russia trust fund financed work program to measure financial capability and the effectiveness of financial education in low and middle income countries. The two activities and their staging have been motivated by the lessons of high income countries with financial literacy programs and the deviating characteristics of low and middle income countries. While progress has been made in high-income countries to measure financial capability, there is little robust empirical evidence that financial education can improve it. While applying the financial capability concept in low and middle-income countries looks promising it will need to be adjusted to their characteristic and supported by innovative interventions and rigorous impact evaluation to improve it. |
| Keywords: | Financial Literacy,Access to Finance,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Education For All,Poverty Impact Evaluation |
| Date: | 2010–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:56501&r=cis |
| By: | Marek Dabrowski |
| Abstract: | Emerging market economies were major beneficiaries of the economic boom before 2007. More recently, they have become victims of the global financial crisis. Their future development depends, to a large extent, on global economic prospects. Today the global economy and the European economy are much more integrated and interdependent than they were ten or twenty years ago. Every country must recognize its limited economic sovereignty and must be prepared to deal with the consequences of global macroeconomic fluctuations. The statistical data for 2009 provides a mixed picture with respect to the impact of the crisis on various groups of countries and individual economies. On average, Central and Eastern Europe experienced a smaller output decline than the Euro area and the entire EU while the CIS, especially its European part, contracted more dramatically. However, there was a deep differentiation within each country group. Looking globally, richer countries, which are more open to trade and in which the banking sector plays a larger role and which rely more on external financing, suffered more than less sophisticated economies, which are less dependent on trade and credit (especially from external sources). With some exceptions, the previous good growth performance helped rather than handicapped countries in the CEE and CIS regions in the crisis year of 2009. The post-crisis recovery has been rather modest and incomplete. It remains vulnerable to new shocks (like the Greek Fiscal crisis), the danger of sovereign default and other uncertainties. Full post-crisis recovery and increasing potential growth will require far going economic and institutional reforms on both national, regional (e.g., EU) and global levels. |
| Keywords: | global financial crisis, emerging-market economies, European Union, Economic and Monetary Union, Central and Eastern Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States, sovereign debt crisis, global policy coordination |
| JEL: | E44 E63 F32 F36 F42 G15 H63 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:cnstan:0411&r=cis |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Robert Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Igor Burakovsky; Grzegorz Gromadzki; Vasyl Yurchyshyn |
| Abstract: | Ukraine was confronted with an unprecedented economic and financial crisis during 2008-2009. That crisis has until recently been compounded by a highly unstable political situation. The European Union, Ukraine's neighbours and the international community have been concerned about possible repercussions of these developments on the stability of the whole region. The February 2010 presidential elections brought more political stability and Ukraine's economic situation markedly improved as well. In this context, the Austrian Ministry of Finance and the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) organized an international expert seminar dealing with these issues in June 2010. The report starts with a summary of deliberations at the Vienna seminar. Next, the background study on the Ukraine's current economic and political situation, prepared for the seminar by wiiw (Vasily Astrov) is presented. The background study is followed by two contributions on future challenges from leading Ukrainian scholars (Igor Burakovsky and Vasily Yurchyshyn). Last but not least, reflections on Ukraine's-EU political and economic relations by Grzegorz Gromadzki, independent expert from Warsaw, are included as well. An extensive annex with recent statistical data on Ukraine is enclosed. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics, international trade and investment, public economics, forecasts, European integration, Ukraine |
| JEL: | E F1 F21 H |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:364&r=cis |
| By: | Verme Paolo (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | The transitional economies of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) have enjoyed an extraordinary period of growth and poverty reduction between 2000 and 2007 and this occurred in concomitance with significant increases in private and public transfers to households. The paper assesses the relative importance of these transfers for welfare and poverty in Moldova, the poorest country in Europe. A longitudinal analysis based on panel data reveals that private transfers and social insurance transfers are effective in improving welfare and reducing poverty whereas social assistance transfers have little or no effect. Social insurance and social assistance seem to have swapped roles. Social insurance is most relevant for lifting people out of poverty while social assistance - if anything - has a small role in protecting the non-poor from falling into poverty. We also find that the different types of transfers do not crowd-out each other and that social insurance may in fact reinforce the capacity of private transfers to reduce poverty. Such findings have several policy implications for the near future: a) Poor households in FSU transitional economies remain highly vulnerable to shocks in public and private transfers; b) the 2008-2009 recession is likely to expose this vulnerability and result in a surge in poverty larger than expected and c) the social assistance systems remain in great need of pro-poor reforms and cannot currently provide an adequate protection from economic shocks |
| Date: | 2010–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201007&r=cis |
| By: | Catriona Purfield; Christoph B. Rosenberg |
| Abstract: | The paper traces the Baltics’ adjustment strategy during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The abrupt end to the externally-financed domestic demand boom triggered a severe output collapse, bringing per capita income levels back to 2005/06 levels. In response to this shock, the Baltics undertook an internal devaluation that relied on unprecedented fiscal and nominal wage adjustment, steps to preserve financial sector stability as well as complementary efforts to facilitate voluntary private debt restructuring. One-and-half years on, the strategy is making good progress but not yet complete. Confidence in the exchange rate was maintained, the banking system was supported by its parent banks, external imbalances and inflation have largely disappeared, competitiveness is improving, and fiscal deficits are gradually being brought back towards pre-crisis levels. However, amid record levels of unemployment, further reforms are needed to foster a return to more balanced growth, fiscal sustainability, and a healthier banking system. |
| Keywords: | Baltics , Currency pegs , Debt restructuring , Estonia , Financial crisis , Fiscal policy , Global competitiveness , Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009 , Labor market policy , Latvia , Lithuania , Private sector , Stabilization measures , Wage adjustments , |
| Date: | 2010–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:10/213&r=cis |