nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2010‒03‒28
five papers chosen by
Koen Schoors
Ghent University

  1. Evaluation of the Oil Fiscal Regime in Russia and Proposals for Reform By Daria Zakharova; Brenton Goldsworthy
  2. Mortality Crisis in Russia Revisited: Evidence from Cross-Regional Comparison By Popov, Vladimir
  3. Direct and indirect state ownership on banks in Russia By Vernikov, Andrei
  4. Pension Reform Options for Russia and Ukraine: A Critical Analysis of Available Options and Their Expected Outcomes (with a Focus on Labour Market, Industrial Restructuring and Public Finance) By Marek Góra; Oleksandr Rohozynsky; Oxana Sinyavskaya
  5. Recent fertility trends and second birth decision-making in Georgia By Nicoletta Balbo

  1. By: Daria Zakharova; Brenton Goldsworthy
    Abstract: Oil revenue plays a central role in Russia's economic development. Thus, the recent decline in oil production and investment, and the possible contribution of the current fiscal regime to these developments, have prompted a reassessment of the oil tax system in Russia. Some important changes have already been made, while others are underway. This paper uses a simulation model to evaluate Russia's current oil fiscal regime. Based on these simulations, the paper proposes ways to make the fiscal regime more supportive of investment, while ensuring an appropriate share of oil sector profits for the government.
    Keywords: Cross country analysis , Economic models , Fiscal policy , Natural gas sector , Oil production , Oil revenues , Oil sector , Reserves , Resource mobilization , Russian Federation , Tax policy , Tax systems ,
    Date: 2010–02–16
  2. By: Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence from cross-regional comparisons that the Russian mortality crisis (mortality rate increased from 1.0% to 1.6% in 1989-94 and stayed at a level of 1.4-1.6% thereafter) was caused mostly by stress factors (increased unemployment, labor turnover, migration, divorces, income inequalities), and by the increase in unnatural deaths (murders, suicides, accidents), but not so much by the increase in alcohol consumption (even though it also increased due to the same stress factors). Health infrastructure of a region had a positive impact on life expectancy only in regions with high income inequalities (large share of highest income group).
    JEL: P36 I12 P27 J11
    Date: 2009–05
  3. By: Vernikov, Andrei
    Abstract: This paper uses the banking industry case to show that the boundaries of public property in Russia are blurred. A messy state withdrawal in 1990s left publicly funded assets beyond direct reach of official state bodies. While we identify no less than 50 state-owned banks in a broad sense, the federal government and regional authorities directly control just 4 and 12 institutions, respectively. 31 banks are indirectly state-owned, and their combined share of state-owned banks’ total assets grew from 11% to over a quarter between 2001 and 2010. The state continues to bear financial responsibility for indirectly owned banks, while it does not benefit properly from their activity through dividends nor capitalization nor policy lending. Such banks tend to act as quasi private institutions with weak corporate governance. Influential insiders (top-managers, current and former civil servants) and cronies extract their rent from control over financial flows and occasional appropriation of parts of bank equity.
    Keywords: Russian banks; state; government; public sector; state-owned banks; state-controlled banks
    JEL: P43 P31 G28 G21
    Date: 2010–03
  4. By: Marek Góra; Oleksandr Rohozynsky; Oxana Sinyavskaya
    Abstract: Russia and Ukraine are in the process of many changes stemming from economic transition, restructuring, demographic change and other various ongoing challenges. In terms of the ongoing challenges in each country, there are specific problems related to historical developments, such as large scale heavy industry, but also potential opportunities that rarely occur in other countries such as the significant additional income from the countries' abundant natural resources. Both countries have good prospects for the future despite the many challenges. Among the challenges is industrial restructuring taking into account the social dimension, which includes adjusting the current arrangements of pension systems. In the best scenario this could mean a pension reform. The term 'pension reform' can be understood in various ways. In this paper we analyse a wide variety of possible pension system designs. The designs vary by target as well as the various ways to reach those targets. In all cases there may be costs and/or savings problems (as well as liquidity problems, which are not a "cost" from the economic viewpoint as liquidity is accounted as if additional cost were created) and various positive and/or negative economic, financial, and social externalities associated with the pension system designs.
    JEL: H53 H55 H69 J11 J18 J32 J P36
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Nicoletta Balbo
    Abstract: Since the Soviet Union's collapse, Georgia has undergone profound socio-political and demographic changes. This paper examines recent fertility trends in Georgia using GGS data from 2006. Results show that the postponement of first birth does not significantly account for the decline in childbearing, suggesting that decline is primarily due to a reduction of second-order births. I then investigate determinants of intentions to have a second child in three different periods: now, within three years and ever. Findings reveal that household income, education level and psychological well-being of the respondents as well as their satisfaction concerning the division of tasks within the couple have a significant effect on second birth decision-making. However, these determinants differ significantly regarding the timing of the intended child. On the other hand, there seems to be no effect of ideational changes, represented by a measure of the spread of post-materialist values within the society, on fertility intentions.
    Keywords: fertility intentions, fertility decline, Georgia, GGS data
    Date: 2009–12

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