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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Kuboniwa, Masaaki |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the issues of measurement of Russia's dependence on oil and gas as well its attempts for diversification with shift toward a technology-centered economy. It further develops the Russia's input-output system to provide a better understanding of these issues. First, it clarifies the extent of the GDP of the mining (oil and gas) sector in Russia by modifying the original supply and use tables. Second, it provides an analysis of the diversification attempts through development of light automobiles by extending the supply and use tables. Third, it presents an attempt of multi-sectoral growth accounting based on our estimations of capital stock, focusing on the capital and TFP (Total Factor Productivity) contributions to growth. |
| Keywords: | Russia, oil dependence, diversification, input-output, growth accounting |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:18&r=cis |
| By: | Chetvernina, Tatiana |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:16&r=cis |
| By: | Havlik, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of Russian economic developments during the period 2000-2007 and analyses key patterns and drivers of the recent economic growth. The growth sustainanbility is addressed as well, in particular with respect to the role played by energy prices and the growing involvement of the state in the economy, including attempts to implement tools of industrial policy and the public-private project financing schemes. Next, the resurgence of Russia as a regional power in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the complicated relations with the European Union (EU) after recent EU enlargements with countries from Central and Eastern Europe are addressed. The paper discusses also prospects for and challenges of the future Russian integration in the European economy and outlines alternative scenarios for a medium-term economic outlook. Finally, the likely policies of the new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev are briefly discussed as well. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economic growth, energy, European integration, economic forecast |
| JEL: | F15 F5 L52 N1 O11 O5 Q4 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:5&r=cis |
| By: | Kotov, Denis |
| Abstract: | In the paper we have clarified how the German multinational (MNE) and small and medium sized enterprises (SME) appraise and perform their foreign direct investments in Russia. Our analysis was supported by a survey of German firms running their business in Russia which was made in the period from April to July 2008. In the survey we also asked about the problems and barriers which German companies face when they invest in Russia. Finally, we have presented how the ‘typical’ investment decision process is run in German firms that are going to Russia. German firms start up their operations in Russia by establishing a subsidiary (~80%). All information related to the investment decision is collected mainly internally (~80%). 66% of firms appraise foreign investment using the Discounted Cash Flow technique which incorporates principally macroeconomic factors, such as the expected inflation rate (~70%) and the GDP growth (86%). Institutional factors describing a country’s level of corruption, the quality of governance or economic policy and economic structure risks are generally ignored. One sixth of firms use these indicators only. The expansion is often financed by the parent company (43%) or by German home banks and their Russian subsidiaries. The main obstacles while investing are the weak and changing legislation, frequent tax inspections, complex tax system and corruption. Undeveloped transport infrastructure belongs to the significant barrier as well. However, such factors as language, domestic competition or limited access to the strategic important industries are considered as minor hurdles. Besides this, profit repatriation restrictions are assessed as a moderate problem. In two thirds of cases the expected return on investment has been achieved or even beaten. The key reasons for the failure of investment are overoptimistic market expectations, unsatisfactory qualifications of the domestic personnel, unreliability of business partners and non-accurate market research. |
| Keywords: | Investment Climate; FDI; Germany; Russia; DCF; Investment Valuation |
| JEL: | G31 F21 M21 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:16373&r=cis |
| By: | Kuboniwa, Masaaki |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:15&r=cis |