nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2008‒10‒07
three papers chosen by
Anna Y. Borodina
Perm State University

  1. Market Discipline and Deposit Insurance in Russia By Peresetsky , Anatoly
  2. Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia By David Hauner
  3. Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025 By Franziska Holz; Christian von Hirschhausen; Claudia Kemfert

  1. By: Peresetsky , Anatoly (BOFIT)
    Abstract: The paper presents a study of Russian banks' interest rates on household deposits during the formation period of the deposit insurance system. It is shown that market discipline weakened after deposit insurance was effectively in place.
    Keywords: deposit insurance; market discipline; deposit interest rates
    JEL: G21 G28 P37
    Date: 2008–10–02
  2. By: David Hauner
    Abstract: Putting the pension system on a sustainable footing arguably remains the biggest challenge in Russia's economic policies. The debate about the policy options was hitherto constrained by the absence of general equilibrium analysis. This paper fills this gap by simulating their macroeconomic effects in a DSGE model calibrated to Russia's economy-the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The results suggest that a minimum benefit level in the public system should optimally be financed through lower government consumption, while higher taxation of labor and capital should be avoided. Reducing public investment spending is superior to increasing consumption taxes unless investment generates high rates of return.
    Keywords: Russian Federation , Pensions , Economic reforms , Private savings , Tax policy , Public investment , Consumption taxes , Aging , Population , Value added tax , Working Paper ,
    Date: 2008–08–22
  3. By: Franziska Holz; Christian von Hirschhausen; Claudia Kemfert
    Abstract: We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (~ share of 1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European gas markets, but less than in the current situation.
    Keywords: Natural gas, Europe, modeling, LNG, supply security
    JEL: L95 L13 F14
    Date: 2008

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