nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2008‒03‒08
three papers chosen by
Anna Y. Borodina
Perm State University

  1. Russian- Chinese relations : towards an energy partnership By Olga Garanina
  2. Trade with the West and Russia - A Long-term Perspective on Finnish Economic Growth, Fluctuations and Policies By Kari E.O. Alho
  3. What Russians Think about Transition: Evidence from RLMS Survey By Irina Denisova; Markus Eller; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya

  1. By: Olga Garanina (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Économie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - CNRS : UMR5252 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II)
    Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the Russian-Chinese energy relations in the context of evolution of bilateral strategic relations since 1991.The research is focused on Russia and encompasses three main aspects: strategic approach of Russian-Chinese relations, Russian hydrocarbons production and export potential and prospects for the Eastern Russia. The paper is based on qualitative analysis. It shows that the framework of bilateral relations is globally favourable for creation of costly energy transport infrastructures. The quest for diversification of Chinese energy supplies contributes to the promotion of Russian hydrocarbons exports towards Asia, the latter contributing to diversify Russian energy exports traditionally sent to Europe. However, the modalities of these projects are submitted to the Russian state interests. Moreover, while natural gas reserves are sufficient to meet the Chinese demand, oil production prospects in the East of Russia are uncertain at a long-term perspective.
    Keywords: trade relationships ; energy policy ; energy resources ; hydrocarbon ; energy ; energy supply ; Russia ; China
    Date: 2007–11
  2. By: Kari E.O. Alho
    Abstract: ABSTRACT : The paper considers growth and fluctuations in the Finnish economy in the post-war period starting from her long-run dual strategy vis-à-vis export markets in Western Europe and Russia. Finland has wanted to utilise the more rapid growth based on deeper integration in the former, but has simultaneously wanted to reap the gains linked to her proximity to the latter. We build a theoretical open economy model based on export supply and demand and then for the whole economy and analyse the role of economic policies, notably exchange rate policies in this connection. Empirically, we estimate the relationships using the SVAR methodology identifying the relevant demand and supply shocks and shocks in policy responses. The results clearly show that shifts in competitiveness have played a key role in boosting both categories of exports. However, firms have been able to shift on their own in exports from the Russian market to the West when needed. Productivity gains have been linked to Western exports, but not to exports to Russia. From a macroeconomic point of view exchange rate policies have been roughly as important as fiscal policies to explain economic fluctuations, although the conclusion on this quite sensitively depends on the SVAR model used. However, economic policies have been less important than the aggregate demand and supply shocks.
    Keywords: exports, macro economy, economic policies, SVAR
    JEL: F41 F43 F12
    Date: 2008–02–27
  3. By: Irina Denisova (CEFIR); Markus Eller (CEFIR); Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (New Economic School/CEFIR and CEPR)
    Abstract: We use data from the 2006 round of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to describe perceptions of Russian people about the transition process and the role of the state. We also study which groups of the population hold more positive and more negative views of transition. Overall, we find that the Russian population is divided in their assessment of transition. About one half is deeply disappointed with transition results and has serious nostalgia about the life under the communist regime. There is a lot more unanimity about the role of the state in the economy. A vast majority of Russians opts for a very high state intervention into all spheres of economic life. However, an average Russian faces a cognitive dissonance: a perception that the state should be more involved in the economy is combined with a deep mistrust of specific state institutions. The variation in these perceptions is systematically related to age, education, employment histories and transition experiences.
    Date: 2007–12

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