nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2007‒08‒08
four papers chosen by
Anna Y. Borodina
Perm State University

  1. Evolving Trade Patterns in the CIS: The Role of Manufacturing By Robert Shelburne; Oksana Pidufala
  2. The CIS – does the regional hegemon facilitate monetary integration? By Mayes, David G; Korhonen, Vesa
  3. Spatial econometric analysis of determinants and strategies of FDI in Russian regions in pre- and post-1998 financial crisis periods By Ledyaeva, Svetlana
  4. Family strategies, labor market behavior and fertility in modern Russia By Kartseva Marina; Sinavskaya Oksana; Zakharov Sergey

  1. By: Robert Shelburne (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe); Oksana Pidufala (Brookings Institution)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the trade flows of the CIS countries with an emphasis on manufactured goods. An abstract in Russian is also provided. Manufactured exports were particularly hard hit by the breakup of the Soviet Union and the CMEA. The study examines trends in the volume of this trade and its geographical and commodity distribution. The CIS countries currently under-rely on the other CIS for their imports of manufactures but over-rely on them as a destination for their exports. CIS exports of manufactures are concentrated primarily of products in SITC 6 produced with medium or low-skilled labor and technology. Nevertheless they export manufacures that are typically exported by countries much richer than themselves although the prices they recieve are much lower. The level of intra-industry trade, as well as marginal intra-industry, of these countries is remarkably low. Generally each of the CIS exports a different set of goods so there is limited competition between them. The study also describes the current trade policy issues facing the region concerning their preferential trading arrangements and WTO accession. The longer-run prospects for manufacturing and policy options for promoting this sector are explored.
    Keywords: CIS, manufactures, trade, Russia, transition economies, intra-industry, comparative advantage, trade policy
    JEL: F14 O14 P27 P33
    Date: 2006–10
  2. By: Mayes, David G (BOFIT); Korhonen, Vesa (BOFIT)
    Abstract: We consider the likely economic impact and prospects for monetary integration among Belarus, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine as part of the Single Economic Space they have agreed to set up. A monetary union among these countries poses three interesting issues for the structure and process of integration: they have already been members of a wider currency union that collapsed, so it is necessary to handle the problems of history; secondly the union would be of very unequal size with the Russian Federation outweighing the others taken together, so we must consider how the national interests would be balanced; lastly natural resources, particularly oil and gas pose problems for dependence and for the determination of the external exchange rate.
    Keywords: monetary union; CIS; economic integration
    JEL: E42 E63 F16
    Date: 2007–07–24
  3. By: Ledyaeva, Svetlana (BOFIT)
    Abstract: Using a spatial autoregressive model of cross-sectional and panel data, we study the determinants and dominant strategies of FDI inflows into Russia before and after the 1998 financial crisis. The important determinants of FDI inflows into Russian regions since transition began appear to be market size, the presence of large cities and sea ports, oil and gas availability, and political and legislative risks. Since 1998, it appears the importance of big cities, the Sakhalin region, oil and gas resources and legislation risk has increased, while the importance of political risk and port availability has decreased. Our results also reveal a shift from horizontal FDI strategy to a regional trade-platform FDI strategy. While theory anticipates combined vertical and horizontal motives for regional trade-platform strategies, the lack of evidence of a vertical motive in the Russian case suggests import substitution presently plays a significant role in regional trade-platform FDI. Using a multiple spatial lags approach, we show that neighbouring regions with ports have emerged post-crisis as competitors for FDI and identify agglomeration effects in FDI between adjacent regions with and without ports during the period 1999-2002.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Russian regions; FDI strategy; spatial autoregressive model
    JEL: C21 E22 F21
    Date: 2007–07–24
  4. By: Kartseva Marina; Sinavskaya Oksana; Zakharov Sergey
    Abstract: Poor in Russia are mainly families with children mostly because of the unemployment or inactivity of a parent. This project is aimed at revealing typical models of demographic and labor market behavior and understanding how decisions regarding family formation and labor force participation are synchronized at the household level.
    Date: 2007–07–26

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