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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Djankov, Simeon; Qian, Yingyi; Roland, Gérard; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina |
| Abstract: | We compare results from a pilot study on entrepreneurship in China and Russia. Compared to non-entrepreneurs, Russian and Chinese entrepreneurs have more entrepreneurs in their family and among childhood friends, value work more relative to leisure and have higher wealth ambitions. Russian entrepreneurs have a better educational background and their parents were more likely to have been members of the communist party but Chinese entrepreneurs are more risk-taking and greedy and have more entrepreneurs among their childhood friends. |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5705&r=cis |
| By: | A. MORDONU |
| Abstract: | This paper is an attempt to assess the possible trade diversion from the Russian Federation caused by the 2004 EU enlargement to 10 Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). Left out of the club, Russia has been confronted with potential losses of CEECs and EU15 markets. The effect of the factual enlargement is approximated by the transformations introduced by earlier regional integration in the region. The Europe Agreements (EA) and other Preferential Trade Agreements (PTA) among the CEECs anticipated most of the transformations related to the EU enlargement, at least as far as trade is concerned. The method rests on the gravity model enriched with the Michaely indices of potential trade diversion, potential trade creation and export compatibility, as a new measure for trade diversion and trade creation. The use of the indices in this context provides several advantages over the use of PTA dummies. They constitute a more accurate measure of trade diversion, they can be correctly estimated since they are not incorporated in the bilateral importer-exporter effects and they do not suffer from endogeneity. In our exercise, the dynamic panel setting reveals to be the correct specification, from a theoretical and empirical point of view. The results of the estimations do not confirm the trade diversion hypothesis for the aggregated data. Although intra-EU25 trade increased tremendously, this was not at the expense of Russian exports. The low level of Russian exports to the EU and the CEECs could thus be caused by other factors than the EU enlargement. |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:06/394&r=cis |
| By: | Kirill Sosunov (Higher School of Economics); Oleg Zamulin (New Economic School) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the ability of monetary authorities to keep the real exchange rate undervalued over the long run by implementing a policy of accumulating foreign exchange reserves. We consider a model of a three-sector, small, open economy, where the central bank continuously purchases foreign currency reserves and compare the results to Russian and Chinese economies in recent years. Both countries appear to pursue reserve accumulation policies. We find a clear trade-o between the steady state levels of the real exchange rate and inflation. After calibration, the model predicts an 8.5% real undervaluation of the Russian currency and a 13.7% undervaluation of the Chinese currency. Predicted inflation is found to match observed levels. |
| Keywords: | Real exchange rate targeting, foreign exchange reserves, Dutch disease |
| JEL: | E52 F4 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0082&r=cis |
| By: | Kirill Sosunov (Higher School of Economics); Oleg Zamulin (New Economic School) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates whether the 80% real appreciation of the Russian ruble in 1998-2005 can be explained by the increase in oil revenues in a calibrated general equilibrium model. It is shown that the oil prices alone cannot account for the appreciation with forward-looking permanent-income consumers, unless the oil price increase is assumed permanent. Accounting for the increase in the volume of oil exports, however, can help, provided that the increase is assumed to be permanent. |
| Keywords: | Real exchange rate; Commodity prices |
| JEL: | F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0083&r=cis |
| By: | Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky; Konstantin Sonin; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya |
| Abstract: | We study the nature of judicial bias in bankruptcy proceedings following the enactment of bankruptcy law in Russia in 1998. We find that regional political characteristics affected judicial decisions about the numbers and types of bankruptcy procedures initiated after the law took effect. In particular, controlling for indicators of firms' insolvency and the quality of the regional judiciary, reorganization procedures were significantly more frequent in regions with politically popular governors and governors who had hostile relations with the federal government. Poor judicial quality was also associated with higher incidence of reorganizations. In addition, the quality of the regional judiciary affected performance of firms in reorganization procedure: in regions with poor judicial quality firms in reorganization significantly underperformed firms not in bankruptcy; while the opposite was true in regions with high-quality judges. The effect of judicial quality on restructuring is particularly strong in regions with politically popular governors because the judicial bias in governor's favor is the highest in poor-quality courts when governors are popular. This evidence is consistent with previously reported anecdotes that suggested that politically strong regional governors used bankruptcy proceedings to protect firms from paying federal taxes. |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2006-30&r=cis |
| By: | Dorothea Rieck (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants of second births in Russia before and during the economic and political transition. Using data from the Generations and Gender Survey and apply the method of hazard regression, we find a strong period effect: whereas the second birth risk increased in the 1980s, it decreased significantly after 1992. This effect remains even after controlling for individual characteristics. We argue that the dramatic increase in economic and social uncertainties after the collapse of the communist system in Russia is responsible for the fertility reduction. |
| Keywords: | Russia, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2006–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2006-036&r=cis |