nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2006‒09‒23
two papers chosen by
Anna Y. Borodina
Perm State University

  1. Economic development and restructuring: Look after Russian context By Irina Peaucelle
  2. Assessing Russia’s Non-fuel Trade Elasticities: Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? By Christian Gianella; Corinne Chanteloup

  1. By: Irina Peaucelle
    Abstract: The main approaches to the determination of growth and development in the contemporary global economy are examined. Special attention is given to the measures of services, mainly in the spheres of health and finance, and of those services increasing knowledge. The paper discusses the short run advantages of the Russian economy, connected to natural resources, on the one hand, and to the scientific and technological culture of the workforce, on the other hand. It analyses the utilization of the accumulated financial resources, provided by the sale of natural resources, for investment in mega-projects in the sphere of science-intensive production and financial control. A schema of the flexible reconstruction of the existing system of production with the aid of the credit policy by the Central Bank is proposed.
    Date: 2006
  2. By: Christian Gianella; Corinne Chanteloup
    Abstract: This paper attempts to assess the impact of exchange rate movements on Russian import and nonfuel export performance, using an error correction model. The estimation of trade equations shows that long-run price elasticities for imports and non-fuel exports are close to 0.6 and 0.7 respectively, hence relatively similar to those obtained for OECD countries. The Marshall-Lerner condition clearly holds. More precisely, we find that a 10% real appreciation (depreciation) of the currency leads on average to a non-fuel current account deterioration (improvement) of around 1% of GDP. Moreover, the short-term dynamics of the error correction model indicate that the response of the trade balance to exchange rate shocks is rapid, the adjustment being almost complete after one quarter. Finally, the evolution of import prices and non-fuel export prices of Russia, relatively to its competitors on domestic and third markets, suggests that the Russian economy lost already in 2004 the price-competitiveness advantage it had gained after the 1998 crisis. <P>Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie : L'économie russe réagit-elle "normalement" aux mouvements de taux de change ? <BR>Cette étude vise à évaluer l'impact des mouvements du taux de change sur les importations et les exportations hors hydrocarbures de la Russie, à partir d'un modèle à correction d'erreur. Les estimations d'équation de commerce extérieur montrent que les élasticités-prix de long terme pour les importations et les exportations hors hydrocarbures se situent respectivement autour de 0.6 et 0.7, soit des valeurs similaires à celles obtenues pour les pays membres de l'OCDE. La condition de Marshall-Lerner est clairement vérifiée. Plus précisément, une appréciation (dépréciation) réelle de 10% du taux de change conduit à une dégradation (amélioration) de la balance courante hors produits pétroliers d'environ 1%. Par ailleurs, la dynamique de court terme du modèle à correction d'erreur indique que la réponse de la balance commerciale aux chocs sur le taux de change est rapide, l'ajustement étant quasiment achevé après un trimestre. Enfin, l'évolution des prix à l'import et à l'export -- hors hydrocarbures -- de la Russie, relativement à de ses concurrents sur les marchés domestiques et tiers, suggère que l'économie russe a épuisé dès 2004 l'avantage de compétitivité-prix qu'elle avait gagné après la crise de 1998.
    Keywords: exchange rates, taux de change, Russia, Russie, foreign trade, non-fuel trade balance, price elasticities, price-competitiveness, commerce extérieur, balance commerciale hors hydrocarbures, élasticité-prix, compétitivité-prix
    JEL: C22 F19 O11 P27
    Date: 2006–09–04

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