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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Thomas Rutherford (University of Colorado); David Tarr (The World Bank); Oleksandr Shepotylo (University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | Taking price changes from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model of world trade, the authors use a small open economy computable general equilibrium comparative static model of the Russian economy to assess the impact of global free trade and a successful completion of the Doha Agenda on the Russian economy, and especially on the poor. They compare those results with the impact of Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on income distribution and the poor. The model incorporates all 55,000 households from the Russian Household Budget Survey as "real" households. Crucially, given the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) liberalization as part of Russian WTO accession, the authors also include FDI and Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from liberalization of import barriers against goods and FDI in services. The authors estimate that Russian WTO accession in the medium run will result in gains averaged over all Russian households equal to 7.3 percent of Russian consumption (with a standard deviation of 2.2 percent of consumption), with virtually all households gaining. They find that global free trade would result in a weighted average gain to households in Russia of 0.2 percent of consumption, with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption, while a successful completion of the Doha Development Agenda would result in a weighted average gain to households of -0.3 percent of consumption (with a standard deviation of 0.2 percent of consumption). Russia, as a net food importer, loses from subsidy elimination, and the gains to Russia from tariff cuts in other countries are too small to offset these losses. The results strongly support the view that Russia's own liberalization is more important than improvements in market access as a result of reforms in tariffs or subsidies in the rest of the world. Foremost among the own reforms is liberalization of barriers against FDI in business services. |
| Keywords: | International economics |
| Date: | 2005–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3725&r=cis |
| By: | David G. Tarr (The World Bank); Giorgio Barba Navaretti (University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the introduction and summary chapter of the 43 chapter volume entitled Handbook of Trade Policy and WTO Accession for Development in Russia and the CIS. The key policy conclusions of each of the chapters are highlighted in this paper. The Handbook will be published only in Russian in 2005, but an English language version of the majority of the papers described here is available on the website www.worldbank.org/trade/russia-wto. This paper first explains the potential importance of World Trade Organization (WTO) accession as a development tool, and discusses the recent successful development models and the role of trade policy in their development. The paper then summarizes the three parts of the Handbook. The first part treats trade policy (with applications to Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]). The second part treats World Trade Organization institutions and disciplines, again with Russia and CIS applications. And the third part focuses on various aspects of the impact of WTO accession on Russia. The numerous papers that relate trade policy and WTO accession to experience in Russia and the CIS are likely to be of special interest to native English speakers, since these papers are new to the literature. The papers in the Handbook are intended to be non-technical materials accessible to a wide policy audience. The Handbook forms the basis of a World Bank Institute course on trade policy and WTO accession, which has been delivered and will be delivered again on multiple occasions. |
| Keywords: | International economics |
| Date: | 2005–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3726&r=cis |
| By: | Thomas W. Hertel (Purdue University and The World Bank); Alan Winters (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on the findings from a major international research project investigating the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda (DDA). It combines in a novel way the results from several strands of research. Intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement pays particularly close attention to potential reforms in agriculture. The scenarios are built up using newly available tariff line data and their implications for world markets are established using a global modeling framework. These world trade impacts, in turn, form the basis for 12 country case studies of the national poverty impacts of these DDA scenarios. The focus countries include Bangladesh, Brazil (two studies), Cameroon, China (two studies), Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Russia, and Zambia. The diversity of approaches taken in these studies allows the paper to reflect local conditions and priorities and illustrates many important facets of the trade and poverty link. It does, however, limit the ability to draw broader conclusions. Thus an additional study provides a 15-country cross-section analysis, and a global analysis provides estimates for the world as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Poverty, International economics |
| Date: | 2005–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3757&r=cis |
| By: | Lev Freinkman (The World Bank); Alexander Plekhanov (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of fiscal decentralization within Russian regions in 1994-2001. The conventional view that more decentralized governments are found in regions and countries with higher income, higher ethnolinguistic fractionalization, and higher levels of democracy is not supported by the data. This motivates a more refined analysis of the determinants of decentralization that points to the link between decentralization and the structure of regional government revenue: access to windfall revenues leads to a more centralized governance structure. The degree of decentralization also depends positively on the level of urbanization and regional size and negatively on income and general regional development indicators such as the education level. |
| Keywords: | Domestic finance, Public sector management |
| Date: | 2005–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3710&r=cis |
| By: | Priit Vahter; Jaan Masso |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to study the effects of both inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on productivity. The main novelty is the analysis of the spillover effects of outward FDI that may occur outside the investing firms on the rest of the home country. The effects are addressed both for the manufacturing and services sectors. To our best knowledge there have so far been no studies based on enterprise-level panel data analysing the spillovers of outward FDI in the production function estimation framework. We find that engaging in outward FDI or receiving inward FDI is positively related to the productivity of the parent firm in Estonia or the subsidiary in Estonia. We do not find much evidence of positive spillovers via outward or inward FDI that is robust to the specification of the model or does not depend on the sector being studied. The results on spillover effects vary according to different specifications of the spillover variable, sector or the model, being either statistically insignificant or, in some cases, positive. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment, spillovers, home country effects, productivity |
| JEL: | F10 F21 F23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2005-13&r=cis |
| By: | Michael Lokshin (The World Bank); Ruslan Yemtsov (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | The authors use data from a large nationally representative survey in Russia to analyze the distributional and welfare implications of draft avoidance as a common response to Russia's highly unpopular conscription system. They develop a simple theoretical model that describes household compliance decisions with respect to enlistment. The authors use several econometric techniques to estimate the effect of various household characteristics on the probability of serving in the army and the implications for household income. Their results indicate that the burden of conscription falls disproportionately on the poor. Poor, rural households, with a low level of education, are more likely to have sons who are enlisted than urban, wealthy, and better-educated families. The losses incurred by the poor are disproportionately large and exceed the statutory rates of personal income taxes. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Labor and employment, Public sector management |
| Date: | 2005–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3547&r=cis |