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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Charnavoki Valery |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes mechanism of adjustment to the asymmetric shocks in terms of trade in possible currency union of Belarus and Russia. It is emphasized the role of real exchange rate in this process. An empirical analysis based on panel data confirms the asymmetric effect of fuel price changes on the equilibrium real exchange rate in two countries. At the same time, according to our estimates, real exchange rate changes affect significantly real output and its structure in Belarus. On the base of analysis provided, conclusion is made about necessity to create a fiscal stabilization mechanism which would allow to smooth negative effect of asymmetric shocks on Belarusian economy under currency union. |
| Keywords: | Belarus, Russia, currency union, asymmetric shocks, terms of trade, real exchange rate. |
| JEL: | C23 E42 F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2005–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eer:wpalle:05-07e&r=cis |
| By: | Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Signe Zeikate |
| Abstract: | Since independence, Ukraine has tried to function with the system of public finance it inherited from Soviet times. Experience has demonstrated that this system, based on an outdated budget law of 1996, has not served Ukraine well and that it has become increasingly inappropriate for an economy struggling to make a successful transition to a modern market economy. Among this system's more notable failures were its high degree of nontransparent and discretionary decision-making, its marked instability of both expenditure and revenue assignments for local governments, the lack of predictability for good budgeting practices, and the faulty incentives it provided for local governments to raise additional revenue and spend more effectively. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Inter-Governmental Transfer System |
| Date: | 2004–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper0408&r=cis |
| By: | Valery Chernookiy |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the econometric model of inflation processes in the Republic of Belarus which makes it possible to explain major factors determining the dynamics of the GDP deflator, consumer price index and producer price index during the period 1994 - 2003. For estimation of the model the author used the statistical tools of nonstationary time series econometrics: cointegration analysis and error-correction models. The model has good statistical properties, it demonstrates stability of the coefficients and enables one to conduct analysis of the various choices in the field of monetary and foreign exchange policies, as well as in the area of labour remuneration, prices and tariffs. |
| Keywords: | inflation, GDP deflator, consumer price index, producer price index, Belarus, cointegration |
| JEL: | E31 C32 P24 |
| Date: | 2005–05–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0505002&r=cis |