By: |
Klaus Adam;
Johannes Beutel;
Albert Marcet |
Abstract: |
The booms and busts in U.S. stock prices over the post-war period can to a
large extent be explained by fluctuations in investors’subjective capital
gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive
optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market throughs. Formally
incorporating subjective price beliefs into an otherwise standard asset
pricing model with utility maximizing investors, we show how subjective be-
lief dynamics can temporarily de-link stock prices from their fundamental
value and give rise to asset price booms that ultimately result in a price
bust. The model successfully replicates (1) the volatility of stock prices and
(2) the positive correlation between the price dividend ratio and expected
returns observed in survey data. We show that models imposing objective or
‘rational’price expectations cannot simultaneously account for both facts. Our
…findings imply that large part of U.S. stock price fluctuations are not due
to standard fundamental forces, instead result from self-reinforcing belief
dynamics triggered by these fundamentals. |
Keywords: |
Stock Price Volatility, learning, survey expectations, internal rationality |
JEL: |
G12 D84 |
Date: |
2014–01 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:757&r=cfn |