By: |
Massimo Libertucci (Bank of Italy);
Francesco Piersante (Bank of Italy) |
Abstract: |
Regulation requires banks to hold a minimum capital endowment upon their
establishment. But what role does initial capital play in a bank’s
lifecycle? This paper addresses the issue for start-up banks. We use both
survival-time and binary choice models for a sample of newly-established
Italian banks in the period 1994-2006, controlling for a broad set of possible
drivers of default, such as market, managerial and financial variables. Our
results suggest that initial capital does play a leading role in explaining
both the timing and the likelihood of a failure. Other important drivers are
organisation and a balanced growth path, while market and management variables
appear to play a minor role. We then turn to a quasi-experimental design:
exploiting a regulatory shift in 1999 we run a counterfactual analysis of the
impact of a regulatory tightening of initial capital, which affected only a
subsample of banks. The set of results suggests that the effect on
banks’ survival may be significant. |
Keywords: |
bank capital, survival analysis, probability of default analysis, start-up banks, counterfactual analysis |
JEL: |
G21 G28 |
Date: |
2012–11 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_890_12&r=cfn |