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on Corporate Finance |
| By: | Holton, Sarah (Central Bank of Ireland); McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This letter provides a consistent picture of Irish SME credit supply and demand up to March 2012 across two data sources: the European Commission and European Central Bank Survey of Access to Finance of Small and Medium Enterprises (SAFE) and the Mazars SME lending demand survey, commissioned by the Department of Finance. The data report that the Irish rejection rate for credit applications is the second highest in the euro area, while Irish SMEs are among the most likely to have faced increased collateral requirements, increased interest rates, or lower loan quantities. On the demand side, the data depict Irish credit demand, as measured by changes in firms’ reported need for external financing, to be at or close to the euro area average, while application rates for credit are slightly lower than average. The difference between Ireland’s ranking on demand and application rates is partly explained by a share of discouraged borrowers, who have demand for credit but do not apply for credit, that is double the euro area average. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:ecolet:08/el/12&r=cfn |
| By: | McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland); McIndoe-Calder, Tara (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Using unique borrower-level balance sheet information for a cross-section of 6,000 Irish SME loans, this paper tests the determinants of default at the micro level. Typical financial ratios, such as the ratio of the loan to total assets, the current ratio, leverage ratio, liquidity ratio and profitability ratio, are found to be significant predictors of default. Further, the length of time the borrowing firm’s owner has been with the firm mitigates the likelihood of default. Conditional on the above, significant sector-level effects remain. The paper moves beyond average effects of the above-mentioned variables by repeating the analysis across seven sectors of economic activity, and across the quintiles of firm size, exposure and credit quality. The share of defaults is shown to fall as firms get larger, and to rise as loans get larger relative to assets. The results suggest that different warning signals can be identified, particularly for borrowers of different sizes and with small versus large loans. These results contribute to the literature on “fundamentals-based” modelling of corporate default risk, and represent one of very few sets of results on the determinants of default in SME lending in particular. |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:06/rt/12&r=cfn |