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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Nima Taheri Hosseinkhani |
| Abstract: | With the increasing frequency of major natural disasters, understanding their political consequences is of paramount importance for democratic accountability. The existing literature is deeply divided, with some studies finding that voters punish incumbents for disaster-related damages, while others find they reward them for relief efforts. This paper investigates the electoral consequences of natural disasters for incumbent mayors, broader electoral dynamics, and the long-term political ambition of officeholders. The study leverages a comprehensive panel dataset of over 10, 000 candidate-election observations in U.S. mayoral races from 1989 to 2021, combining detailed election data with a global registry of disaster events. To identify causal effects, the analysis employs a robust dynamic two-way fixed-effects event-study design, validated by extensive pre-trend and placebo tests. The findings reveal that the electoral impact of disasters is highly conditional on their timing. A disaster that strikes in the same quarter as an election provides a significant electoral boost to incumbents, increasing their vote share by over 6 percentage points. However, disasters consistently suppress voter turnout, reducing it by an average of 1.4 percentage points. In a novel finding, the analysis demonstrates that the experience of managing a disaster significantly increases an incumbent's likelihood of seeking re-election in the subsequent cycle by as much as 12 percentage points. These findings help reconcile conflicting theories of retrospective voting by highlighting the critical role of voter myopia and salience. They also reveal a previously undocumented channel through which crises shape political careers, suggesting that disaster management is not only a test of governance but also a catalyst for political ambition. [The current version is a preprint.] |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.14331 |
| By: | Neugart, Michael; Zuazu, Izaskun |
| Abstract: | This paper brings individual‐level evidence to the hypothesis that women holding political offices, that is, descriptive representation, affects the participation of women in politics. Specifically, using a regression discontinuity design, we analyze the role of close victories of directly elected female candidates in mixed‐gender races at the federal elections in Germany in 2013 on individuals' decisions to turn out at the federal elections in Germany in 2017. We account for mediating channels such as changes in the pool of candidates, policy outcomes, policy interest, and knowledge that may all also affect voter turnout. The results indicate no effect of descriptive representation on female turnout in the future. |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:156038 |
| By: | Berlingieri, Francesco; d'Hombres, Béatrice; Kovacic, Matija |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between loneliness, trust, and populist voting across both extremes of the ideological spectrum. The contribution of this research is mainly two-fold. First, it considers different dimensions of loneliness and accounts for its predetermined component stemming from social isolation in childhood and adverse childhood experiences. Second, it disentangles the effects of loneliness and trust by incorporating actual trust behaviour from a large-scale trust game experiment conducted in 27 European member states, involving more than 25, 000 individuals. The richness of the data allows to account for and disentangle the impact of competitive explanatory factors such as emotions, objective social isolation, social media use and economic preferences. The main findings suggest the following: (i) social loneliness significantly impacts populist voting, particularly on the extreme right, whereas the emotional dimension of loneliness is associated with more left-leaning, but non-populist, voting preferences; (ii) higher levels of actual trust are associated with lower support for right-wing populist parties; (iii) loneliness and trust operate through distinct channels: loneliness exerts a greater impact on women and older individuals, while trust plays a more significant role among men and middle-aged individuals, and (iv) the effect of social loneliness on support of populist parties is significantly attenuated in contexts with a history of recurrent economic crises, suggesting a potential experience-based learning mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Loneliness, interpersonal trust, political polarisation, populism |
| JEL: | D72 D91 P00 C91 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1634 |
| By: | Mykhailyshyna, Dariia; Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of two massive and unexpected inflows of Ukrainians on voting behavior in Poland. The two migration shocks, caused by Russia's aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, allow us to compare the effects of conflict-induced labor migration and those of refugee inflows. Using an instrumental variable approach, we find that greater exposure to labor migrants reduces support for conservative parties in the short run and subsequently shifts voter preferences toward pro-redistribution parties. We do not find similar effects for refugees, who, unlike temporary labor migrants, had access to social benefits. Exposure to both types of Ukrainian migration leads to a decrease in far-right voting. This effect emerges only after the salience of Ukrainian migrants increases due to the escalation of Russia's aggression and the rise of anti-Ukrainian rhetoric from the Polish far-right. The backlash from Polish voters against the far-right rhetoric is ten times stronger in areas exposed to refugees than to labor migrants. Our results are robust to the use of a number of instruments and several sensitivity checks. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Refugees, Political Economy, Voting, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J61 P16 R23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1649 |
| By: | Satoshi Nakada; Shmuel Nitzan; Takashi Ui |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes normative criteria for voting rules under uncertainty about individual preferences. The criteria emphasize the importance of responsiveness, i.e., the probability that the social outcome coincides with the realized individual preferences. Given a convex set of probability distributions of preferences, denoted by $P$, a voting rule is said to be $P$-robust if, for each probability distribution in $P$, at least one individual's responsiveness exceeds one-half. Our main result establishes that a voting rule is $P$-robust if and only if there exists a nonnegative weight vector such that the weighted average of individual responsiveness is strictly greater than one-half under every extreme point of $P$. In particular, if the set $P$ includes all degenerate distributions, a $P$-robust rule is a weighted majority rule without ties. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.22655 |
| By: | Docquier, Frédéric (LISER); Iandolo, Stefano (University of Salerno); Rapoport, Hillel (Paris School of Economics); Turati, Riccardo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague (Catholic University Louvain) |
| Abstract: | We propose new ways to measure populism, using the Manifesto Project Database (1960-2019) as main source of data. We characterize the evolution of populism over 60 years and show empirically that it is significantly impacted by the skill-content of globalization. Specifically, imports of goods which are intensive in low-skill labor generate more right-wing populism, and low-skill immigration shifts the distribution of votes to the right, with more votes for right-wing populist parties and less for left-wing populist parties. In contrast, imports of high-skill labor intensive goods, as well as high-skill immigration flows, tend to reduce the volume of populism. |
| Keywords: | immigration, populism, globalization, trade |
| JEL: | D72 F22 F52 J61 P00 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18041 |
| By: | Yoan Hermstrüwer (University of Zurich, Switzerland); Mahdi Khesali (University of Hamburg & Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods) |
| Abstract: | Why do people obey the law when it is not formally enforced? In this study, we explore the expressive power of democracy as a behavioral channel of compliance with the law. Using a modified version of the stealing game, we examine the effect of two distinct democratic interventions on stealing under normative ambiguity: a voting procedure in which the outcome is revealed, and a voting procedure in which the outcome of the vote remains unknown. We find that revealing the outcome of a vote significantly reduces stealing relative to a baseline treatment without a vote and the treatment in which the outcome of the vote remains unknown. We also observe suggestive evidence that participants who support the social norm proscribing theft are more likely to steal nonetheless when the outcome remains unknown. Our findings have important implications for the design of expressive law and of democratic voting procedures. |
| JEL: | C91 D72 D91 K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpg:wpaper:2025_06 |
| By: | Di Cataldo, Marco; Renzullo, Elena |
| Abstract: | The EU Cohesion Policy, with its capacity to shape the socio-economic development of European regions and cities, also holds the potential to influence the political preferences of citizens. While existing research has explored the effects of EU funding on national electoral outcomes, its impact on local elections remains underexamined, overlooking the inherently territorial nature of Cohesion Policy and the crucial role local policy-makers play in its activation and implementation. This study leverages detailed administrative data on European development projects to examine how EU funds affect political support for incumbent local politicians in Italy. It analyses the relationship between the inflow of European funds and the electoral support for Italian mayors, considering different project types that reflect the mayors’ ability to attract European funds. The findings demonstrate that Cohesion Policy significantly shapes local voting behaviour. Larger, more visible projects significantly increase the likelihood of mayoral re-election. Moreover, municipalities experiencing faster economic growth, where EU projects contribute to public service improvements, witness the strongest electoral gains for incumbents. These results highlight the critical importance of project design, visibility, and effectiveness in determining the political consequences of EU redistributive policies. |
| Keywords: | EU cohesion policy; incumbent re-election; political preferences; redistribution; local voting behaviour |
| JEL: | D72 I38 H70 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128651 |
| By: | Samsonov, Volodymyr |
| Abstract: | This research examines impacts of austerity on the political instability in the European Union, defined as elevated levels of electoral volatility and ideological polarization. By analyzing macroeconomic theories that elucidate the effects of austerity on citizens' wealth and the national economic agenda, and, alongside, political theories that explore how voters' economic mindsets and interests are mobilized during national legislative elections, this study formulates hypotheses that assess the political viability of Keynesian versus Neoclassical (taxation- versus spending-based) approaches to austerity. Statistical analyses were performed to test these hypotheses across various groups of EU Members. The overall findings indicate that political repercussions of austerity are not uniform among European states. In EU Members with Continental European, Social- Democratic and Market-based capitalism, austerity has not emerged as a significant contributor to political instability. Conversely, the situation in South European states raises considerable concern. The dissonance between voters' Neoclassical perspectives and the prevailing Keynesian mainstream has led to increased electoral and populism. Importantly, this research does not posit that political risks should be regarded as the paramount consideration in the formulation of austerity policies. Rather, the primary objective of this study is to provide insights that can assist policymakers in macro-financial imperatives with political ramifications during austerity implementations. |
| Keywords: | fiscal austerity, political stability, electoral volatility, ideological polarization, ideological dispersions, populism, Keynesian theory, Neoclassical theory, economic voting, European politics |
| JEL: | P16 E62 H12 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:321892 |
| By: | Tolga Benzer (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku); Janne Tukiainen (Turku School of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether anti-establishment outsider movements can leverage education and youth mobilization to build long-run political power. We study the expansion of state-run religious secondary schools in 1970s Turkiye and show that access to these schools catalyzed the emergence of Islamist youth organizations, which played a central role in ideological formation, grassroots mobilization, and the eventual electoral success of the Islamist movement. Using a novel dataset and a difference-in-differences framework, we show that access to religious schools increased the local presence of Islamist youth organizations in the short run and boosted Islamist party vote share in the medium run. Effects were strongest where youth branches formed soon after school access and engaged in ideologically immersive activities. Individual-level survey evidence shows that exposed male cohorts were more religious and more likely to engage in Islamist party politics later in life. Our findings illustrate how schools and youth organizations—when strategically aligned—can serve as a foundation for enduring political transformation, not only for ruling elites but also for outsider movements seeking to gain power. |
| Keywords: | Schools, Outsider movements, Party youth organizations, Elections, Religion |
| JEL: | D71 D72 I28 P16 P52 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp171 |
| By: | Li, Zikai (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | Can targeted tax credits designed to stimulate renewable energy development in areas vulnerable to economic decline shift voters’ support? While advocates argue that economic gains from such incentives can realign political preferences by altering local communities' cost-benefit calculations, competing mechanisms such as disruptions to these communities and ideological resistance may offset these effects or even trigger backlash. Focusing on the Energy Community Tax Credit Bonus (ECTCB) under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, I use a two-dimensional regression discontinuity (2DRD) design to estimate its impact on the Democratic share of the two-party vote in the 2024 presidential election. The analysis suggests a small negative effect (point estimate: −0.0039; 95% confidence interval: [−0.0078, −0.0002]). These findings contribute new causal evidence to the debate on the electoral effects of place-based climate policies. This paper also makes methodological contributions by improving a recently proposed 2DRD estimator with bagging and the delta bootstrap. Through Monte Carlo simulations, I show the refined estimator exhibits less bias and greater efficiency than common alternatives. |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s4nje_v1 |
| By: | Ran Abramitzky; Netanel Ben Porath; Victor Lavy; Michal Palgi |
| Abstract: | While many socialist countries suffered from harsh economic crises, studying their impacts on economic and political attitudes is challenging because of the scarcity of reliable data in nondemocratic contexts. We study a democratic socialist setting where we have ample information on such attitudes: the Israeli kibbutzim. Exploiting an economic crisis that hit some kibbutzim more than others, we find that the crisis led to reduced support for leftist political parties. This effect persisted for over 20 years after the crisis had ended. We document that the electoral movement was rooted in a rightward shift in economic attitudes, suggesting that economic crises may undermine socialist regimes by silently changing attitudes toward them. In our unique setting, we can also study recovery mechanisms from the crisis. First, we find that while a sharp debt relief arrangement restored trust in the leadership, it did not reverse the impact of the crisis on economic attitudes. Second, as part of their efforts to recover from the crisis, kibbutzim liberalized their labor markets. Analyzing the staggered shift away from equal sharing to market-based wages, we find that this labor market liberalization led kibbutz members to move further rightward in their political voting and economic attitudes. |
| JEL: | J0 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34049 |