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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Helena Morais (Cedeplar/UFMG); Rafael Ribeiro (Cedeplar/UFMG); Fernanda Cimini (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how political polarisation conditions the relationship between economic performance and electoral outcomes. While a large literature shows that voters tend to reward incumbents for good economic conditions and punish them for poor performance, these effects are far from universal, as polarisation functions as a contextual moderator of economic voting by altering how voters interpret economic information. We develop a formal theoretical model in which increasing polarisation expands the share of voters who are unresponsive to economic performance, reducing the economic accountability of voting. We test the model's predictions using data from 62 presidential elections in 16 Latin American countries between 1994 and 2019. The empirical analysis shows that public spending increases and inflation decreases incumbent reelection probability in low-polarisation contexts, consistent with standard economic voting models. However, these effects weaken significantly as polarisation rises and become statistically insignificant at high levels of polarisation. These findings suggest that polarisation systematically reshapes the mechanisms of electoral accountability by reducing voters' responsiveness to economic conditions. More broadly, the results highlight a trade-off inherent in democratic competition: while some degree of political polarisation may structure political choice, excessive levels of polarisation undermine the capacity of elections to discipline incumbents based on performance. |
| Keywords: | economic vote; polarisation; Latin America; theoretical model; empirical work. |
| JEL: | D72 P16 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td704 |
| By: | Bangum, Christine T.; Fiva, Jon H.; Invernizzi, Giovanna M.; Prato, Carlo; Tukiainen, Janne |
| Abstract: | We study how political parties share power internally by analyzing the allocation of list positions to different factions. We develop a theory of intra-party bargaining in which list positions shape the mobilization efforts of party activists in different factions. Our results allow us to link observable patterns in list allocations to the importance of consensus in intra-party negotiations. We empirically evaluate these predictions using data from Norwegian municipal elections. We exploit a wave of municipal mergers to identify candidates' geography-based factional affiliations. In line with our theory's functionalist logic and consensus-based bargaining, smaller factions are over-compensated in both safe and contested list positions, but more so in safe positions. Our theoretical and empirical results show that parties can promote consensus among their factions while maintaining mobilization incentives, indicating that equality and efficiency within a political organization can be simultaneously achieved. |
| Keywords: | Party Factions, Intra-Party Power Sharing, Candidate Selection, Geographic Representation, Municipal Mergers |
| JEL: | C21 C78 D72 H77 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:344254 |
| By: | Anna Maria Mayda; Lindsay Oldenski; Walter Steingress |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of offshoring by US firms on voting patterns in the US. Using county-level voting data combined with industry-level offshoring data from 2000 to 2020, we ask whether an increase in employment at foreign affiliates of US multinational firms in vertically oriented industries is associated with an increase in the vote share for the incumbent party candidate in Presidential, House, and Senate elections. We find that offshoring leads to a significant increase in the incumbent vote share for counties with higher shares of college educated workers, and a significant decrease for counties with higher shares of workers in the manufacturing sector and in occupations that are more easily relocated abroad. These results are consistent with the labor market literature on offshoring and our own findings, which show that offshoring has heterogeneous effects on workers’ employment based on skill and occupational tasks. This suggests that voters respond to the economic effects of offshoring by rewarding or punishing incumbent party candidates. |
| Keywords: | Models and tools; Economic models; Structural challenges; International trade, finance and competitiveness |
| JEL: | D D7 D72 F F2 F23 F6 F60 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:26-37 |
| By: | Terenzio Fava (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of referendums in Italy, from the institutional referendum of 1946 to the consultations held in 2026, through a historical and quantitative analysis of electoral results. The study investigates trends in voter turnout, quorum attainment, voting preferences, the main issues submitted to popular consultation, and the role of referendum promoters, highlighting changes in the relationship between citizens, political institutions, and instruments of direct democracy. The findings reveal a progressive decline in participation in abrogative referendums, particularly since the 1990s. Of the 77 abrogative referendum questions examined, only 39 reached the required quorum, while average voter turnout declined from 60.9% before 2000 to 34.4% in the subsequent period. The analysis also suggests that the increasing frequency of consultations, the complexity of certain referendum questions, and the political instrumentalization of referendums have contributed to weakening their effectiveness and their capacity to mobilize citizens. The paper further highlights the contrast between the fundamental role played by referendums in shaping Italy's major civil, social, and institutional transformations and the growing difficulties faced by this instrument in influencing political decision-making. Overall, the study offers a critical reflection on the future of direct democracy in Italy, emphasizing the importance of restoring meaningful popular participation and strengthening the relevance of referendum outcomes within democratic processes. |
| Keywords: | Referendum; Voter Turnout; Quorum; Direct Democracy; Electoral Participation; Italian Republic; Political Institutions; Civil Rights |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:26_03 |