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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Ludek Kouba (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic); Michal Madr (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | While previous studies link social capital to environmental attitudes, we take a step further and ask whether trust translates into actual behaviour — voting for a Green party. We propose a post-materialist values channel through which social capital relates to Green electoral support, and examine it across European regions in one of the first studies of trust and observed electoral behaviour. Unlike most work, which relates survey-based attitudes to survey-based vote intentions, our dependent variable is real behaviour: the regional vote share of 41 European Green parties in parliamentary elections (2002–2022), matched with regional trust indicators from the European Social Survey. The estimations confirm our hypothesis that higher trust relates positively to Green electoral results, with highly statistically significant and robust associations for social, institutional, and international trust. A one-standard-deviation rise in regional social trust is associated with a 0.1-standard-deviation rise in Green support. In addition, post-materialist attitudes appear more important than redistributive preferences, and these associations are stronger in high-trust regions. This suggests that, in 21st-century Europe, typical Green voters are less oriented towards the left than previously thought and more driven by post-materialist values. |
| Keywords: | Social capital; trust; attitudes; post-materialist values; Green parties; parliamentary elections; European regions |
| JEL: | A13 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:115_2026 |
| By: | Margot Belguise |
| Abstract: | Far-right voting is stigmatized, yet rising worldwide. Do signals of its newfound popularity embolden voters to support the far-right, even in the secrecy of the voting booth? French two-round elections provide a natural experiment to answer this question. When far-right candidates narrowly rank first in round one—a salient but purely symbolic victory—this brings them more votes in round two, held merely one week later. At its peak, this effect explains 88% of far-right round two victories in narrowly treated districts. Evidence aligns with voters attending more to salient signals when they update second-order beliefs about the far-right’s acceptability. As predicted if voters attach greater weight to more salient signals, more unusual wins have larger effects. Leveraging a large corpus of newspaper articles I scraped, I further show that these unusual wins trigger a spike in media coverage. Consistent with stigma erosion, the vote effect is specific to the far-right, larger where stigma is likely stronger, and persists in the long-term. Using administrative records on campaign funding, I document similar patterns for campaign donations—acts of support that are less secret than votes and may therefore carry larger reputational costs. Lastly, I show that these wins normalized the open expression of anti-immigration views. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-09 |
| By: | Elliot Motte |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the production of offensive content by politicians on Twitter/X. Applying AI-based methods to the universe of tweets posted by members of the U.S. Congress (2017 - 2022), I measure the returns to offensive communication both in terms of online engagement and electoral support. I document that posting toxic tweets generates a sizable engagement premium and that these gains decrease with politicians' baseline toxicity. To examine how voters respond to offensive speech, I link the timing of toxic tweets to a large-scale electoral survey. Using an event study design around days marked by sharp spikes in representatives' toxic tweeting activity, I find that voting intentions for the politician increase in the following week. The increase is concentrated among ideologically aligned voters, while opponents display lower electoral support, widening the partisan voting gap. These findings highlight the presence of both online and electoral incentives to the production of offensive communication, which comes at the expense of growing polarization. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-08 |
| By: | Agarwal, Vikas; Karakaş, Oğuzhan; Limbach, Peter; Ren, Honglin |
| Abstract: | We document high persistence in shareholder turnout, creating predictable differences in effective voting power across firms. Accordingly, firms with lower turnout exhibit higher voting premia. For identification, we exploit the 2010 NYSE Rule 452 amendment eliminating broker authority over uninstructed shares as a shock to turnout in director elections. Further, we show that low turnout predicts contentious governance events where shareholder influence is more valuable, and that the negative voting premium-turnout relation is stronger when such events are more likely. Results indicate that investors price de facto voting power and that persistent shareholder participation shape the value of corporate control. |
| Keywords: | Shareholder voting participation, Value of voting rights, Broker non-vote rule, Contentious governance events, Voting power |
| JEL: | G11 G23 G41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:344100 |
| By: | Julio Cáceres-Delpiano; Matilde Pinto Machado |
| Abstract: | Using precise data on the residences of municipal election candidates in Chile and regression- discontinuity design based on close elections, we estimate the causal effect of electing a candidate on the emergence of future candidacies within a very narrow radius of their home. We find that the election of a neighbor increases the emergence of candidates from the same neighborhood. We then examine whether these candidacies translate into electoral success and generate persistence in the geographic composition of councils. We find evidence of such persistence, driven by incumbent re-election and concentrated in neighborhoods where elected candidates are pivotal in the council or not politically aligned with the mayor. These dynamics imply that local political processes may perpetuate, rather than alleviate, spatial inequalities within municipalities. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2026-10 |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Ali Glisson |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the territorial reconfiguration of American electoral politics since the 1980s, tracing the remaking of Republican support from Reagan’s 1984 landslide to Trump’s three presidential campaigns (2016, 2020, 2024). Drawing on panel data for every presidential election from 1984 to 2024 across 722 commuting zones, we test whether regional development traps, defined as enduring economic underperformance, explain both the shift from Democrats to Republicans and the Republicans’ internal realignment. Mundlak/Correlated Random Effects estimates show backlash is overwhelmingly driven by structural, not cyclical, decline. Short-term economic fluctuations do not predict Republican swing, while long-run territorial position does so decisively. Voters are not responding to recessions. They are registering alienation from an economic order that has failed their communities for a generation. Trump’s gains concentrated in places persistently left behind, whose peripheral position has become entrenched. |
| Keywords: | Regional development traps; electoral geography; Republican Party; Trump; Reagan coalition; voting; territorial inequality; political realignment; United States |
| JEL: | D72 R11 R12 P16 O18 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2623 |
| By: | Abel François; Nicolas Lagios; Pierre-Guillaume Méon |
| Abstract: | Can shared experiences across nations foster people’s attachment to a community beyond the nation-state? The answer is a priori ambiguous: international events bring nations together around a common frame, but they also set them against one another. To answer this question, we study the Eurovision Song Con- test, an annual competition broadcast to a large transnational audience and organized around shared European values. Comparing respondents surveyed just before and after their country’s participation in the show, we find that the contest raises European identification, which complements national identity rather than substituting for it. The effect persists over time and is independent of the outcome of the event. Regarding mechanisms, we show that Eurovision changes the values individuals attribute to Europe without changing their own values, and identification increases when the two align. Importantly, the event has electoral consequences: in countries that narrowly qualify for the final, votes in European Parliament elections shift toward more pro-European parties. |
| Keywords: | National identity; Supranational identity; Regional integration; Voting; Shared experiences; European integration; Eurovision Song Contest |
| JEL: | D72 D83 D91 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/415112 |