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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Anthony Edo; Thomas Renault; Jérôme Valette |
| Abstract: | How does the electoral success of a far-right political force shape the strategies and policy platforms of mainstream candidates? We answer this question by exploiting the political shock of the creation of the Front National, an anti-immigration party, in 1972 and its sudden electoral breakthrough in the 1980s. Through a comprehensive textual analysis of candidate manifestos in French parliamentary elections from 1968 to 1997, we find that right-wing candidates respond to local far-right success, measured as voting shares, by amplifying the salience of immigration in their manifestos. They also adopt more negative positions on immigration and increasingly associate it with issues such as crime and the welfare state. In contrast, the ideological positions of left-wing candidates do not shift in response to far-right electoral gains. We finally show that the strategic adjustments of right-wing candidates help mitigate electoral losses to far-right competitors. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, Anti-immigrant Parties, Electoral competition, Party Platform, Immigration |
| JEL: | F22 P16 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25155 |
| By: | Francesco Fasani; Simone Ferro; Elisabetta Pasini; Alessio Romarri |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal evaluation of the political impact of asylum seekers in the UK. Although they are dispersed across areas on a no-choice basis, political bargaining between central and local governments introduces potential endogeneity in their allocation. We address this concern with a novel IV strategy that exploits predetermined public-housing characteristics. Focusing on 2004-2019, we estimate a sizeable increase in the Conservative-Labour vote share gap in local elections: a one within-area standard deviation increase in dispersed asylum seekers widens the gap by 3.1 percentage points in favour of the Conservatives. We observe a similar shift to the right in national elections and longitudinal survey data on voting intentions, along with an increase in the Leave vote in the Brexit referendum. Electoral gains are observed for UKIP as well, although this finding is less robust. No effect is detected for non-dispersed asylum seekers, who forgo subsidised housing and make independent residential choices. Turning to mechanisms, voters move to the right without becoming more hostile towards foreigners. Leveraging the universe of MPs' speeches, we show that representatives from more exposed areas emphasise asylum and migration more, with no systematic change in tone or content. This heightened salience appears to shape voters' choices, with Conservative MPs particularly effective at channelling discontent. |
| Keywords: | Refugees, Elections, Brexit, MP's speeches. |
| JEL: | F22 D72 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25147 |
| By: | Joop Adema |
| Abstract: | Far-right parties frequently mobilize anti-refugee sentiment during periods of high asylum migration. Prior work shows that exposure to transit routes and regional inflows tends to raise far-right support, whereas direct local contact with asylum seekers can dampen it. Yet much of the sharp rise in far-right voting around major refugee waves remains unexplained by actual inflows. I study a Dutch policy reform, the Dispersal Act, which obligated municipalities to host asylum seekers and thereby generated a sudden, plausibly exogenous increase in expected future local inflows. Comparing changes in far-right vote shares between not-yet and already hosting municipalities before the actual arrival of asylum seekers allows me to isolate the electoral effect of heightened expectations of future hosting. I find that affected municipalities experienced a substantial increase in far-right support following the Act's passage. The effect operates on both the extensive margin (whether municipalities expect to host) and the intensive margin (how many they expect to host): a one-percentage-point increase in allocated asylum-seeker share raises far-right vote shares by about 1.2 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Asylum Seekers, Far-right voting, Group threat, Migration |
| JEL: | D72 F22 H75 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25150 |
| By: | Tito Boeri; Nina Nikiforova; Guido Tabellini |
| Abstract: | We study the communication strategies on Twitter/X of 367 political leaders in 21 countries, focusing on electoral competition between populists and non-populists. We measure polarization by the ease with which the leader can be classified as populist or not, conditional on his tweet. We find that political rhetoric becomes more polarized before and around election dates. This happens because, in pre-electoral quarters, opposite leaders are more likely to: i) talk about different topics, and ii) frame differently the same issues. Our results are consistent with competing politicians targeting different voters, rather than appealing to the same swing voters. |
| Keywords: | Electoral competition, Populism, Partisanship, Polarization |
| JEL: | P H |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26080 |
| By: | Frémeaux, Nicolas (University of Rouen); Maarek, Paul (Université Paris Panthéon-Assas) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates gender-based differences in cooperativeness among French parliamentarians by analyzing legislative behaviors, such as cosponsorship and voting patterns. Using a comprehensive dataset covering all bills and amendments authored in France's Lower House between 2012 and 2022, we show that female parliamentarians attract fewer cosponsors, particularly from members of their own parties, despite being more likely to support their colleagues' initiatives and exhibit higher voting participation. This asymmetry highlights a paradox: while female legislators display greater cooperative and altruistic behaviors, they receive less reciprocal backing, limiting their legislative influence. The observed patterns are driven by behavioral gender differences rather than differences in observable characteristics, thematic alignment, or the quality of the politicians. |
| Keywords: | gender, cooperativeness, politicians, parliament |
| JEL: | J16 D72 D73 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18559 |
| By: | Patrick Mellacher (University of Graz, Austria); Teresa Lackner (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | We develop a simple computational model capturing the co-evolution of opinion formation, political decision making and economic outcomes to study how societies form opinions if their members have opposing economic interests. The model features two types of individuals, a small minority and a large majority with conflicting economic interests who form and update beliefs about which policy best serves their interest through three channels: social influence, exposure to costly advertisements, and stochastic access to unbiased outside information. Individuals receive a payoff based on a policy they decide democratically and can use their funds to influence other individuals by sending costly advertisements. Our model illustrates how a tiny, but well-informed minority can influence democratic processes in their favor - even in situations where it seems unlikely at first glance, due to a vicious cycle in which political and economic power gradually shift from one group to another. Our model offers two ways out of this misery: First, on the individual-level, bounded confidence - the tendency of humans to distrust opinions which are too different from their own - has a mitigating effect and leads to better societal outcomes. This is particularly interesting, as bounded confidence has famously been shown by Hegselmann and Krause (2002) to produce polarization which is generally considered harmful. However, bounded confidence can cause political chaos and its effectiveness can be reduced by strategic messaging. Second, on a societal level, better access to unbiased information sources can counter disinformation. Our model highlights the dangers that economic and information inequality can pose for democracies and contributes to debates on the causes of the decades-long increase in inequality in democratic countries and the persistent failure to adequately address climate change. |
| Keywords: | Opinion dynamics, Agent-based model, Social conflict, Bounded confidence, Disinformation, Strategic advertising |
| JEL: | C63 D83 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2026-04 |
| By: | Sebastiano Della Lena; Luca Paolo Merlino; Yves Zenou |
| Abstract: | We study opinion dynamics in a social network consisting of two groups. Agents update their opinions by conforming to members of their own group while rejecting the views of the opposing group (affective polarization), and by listening to a media outlet that may provide biased information. We characterize the long-run opinions and identify when affective polarization and media bias lead to ideological polarization, persistent disagreement, or failures of learning. We also derive when information interventions or censorship improve learning and reduce disagreement, and when they backfire: better information helps only under specific media bias configurations and when directed to the agents we identify as most effective at propagating it through the network. |
| Keywords: | Signed Networks, Opinion Dynamics, Affective Polarization, Group Antagonism, Information Campaigns, Targeting. |
| JEL: | C7 D7 D85 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26001 |