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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | da Silva, Lucas Paulo (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Cross-pressured voters (CPVs) are a large demographic that usually faces ideological trade-offs when voting. They are either economically leftist and culturally conservative ('left-conservatives') or economically rightist and culturally progressive ('right-progressives'). Despite being ideological opposites, both left-conservatives and right-progressives usually support right-conservative parties. Past research suggests that CPVs are 'persuadable voters', but this is the first study to examine whether media actually influences their voting behaviour. I test whether media exposure alters three 'spatial voting mediators' among CPVs -- their own ideological positions, perceptions of party positions, and salience -- and consequently their voting behaviour. To examine these relationships, I administer a pre-registered survey among British CPVs and integrate panel data from the UK, US, and Germany. The results demonstrate that media exposure influences CPVs considerably by altering spatial voting mediators. The implications of these findings are powerful, shedding light on contemporary electoral shifts, especially in favour of right-conservative parties. |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:cyhsm_v1 |
| By: | Ivo Welch |
| Abstract: | With four political candidates competing first in two primaries and then in a general election, even a modestly polarized electorate can sustain (in equilibrium) much more extremist candidates. However, a party can sustain extremism only if the other side is extreme, too. A small moderation of one side’s voting electorate can trigger a discontinuous collapse of candidate extremism on both sides — a “moderation export” effect. The converse is also true: minute increases in voter polarization on the more moderate side can trigger radical candidate extremism on both sides. Principled candidates can destroy party electability. Distance-related voter abstention favors extremism. |
| JEL: | D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34967 |
| By: | Erik Ortiz-Covarrubias (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether Germany’s historical confessional divides continue to influence contemporary political behavior by exploiting persistent geographic variation between historically Catholic and Protestant areas through a Geographic Regression Discontinuity Design. Integrating historical and geospatial data with modern electoral and census sources, I find that historically Catholic municipalities show systematically higher support for the center-right Union parties than their counterparts in every federal election from 1990 to 2025, while historically Protestant areas are more likely to support parties on the center-left and left of the political spectrum. Individual-level survey data covering all Federal Elections since 1953 and the German General Social Survey provide suggestive evidence that voting behavior is shaped by confessional affiliation. |
| Keywords: | Religion, voting behavior, Germany. |
| JEL: | O18 N33 D72 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2026_2604 |
| By: | David McCune; Matthew I. Jones; Andy Schultz; Adam Graham-Squire; Ismar Volic; Belle See; Karen Xiao; Malavika Mukundan |
| Abstract: | This article extends the analysis of Atkinson, Foley, and Ganz in "Beyond the Spoiler Effect: Can Ranked-Choice Voting Solve the Problem of Political Polarization?". Their work uses a one-dimensional spatial model based on survey data from the Cooperative Election Survey (CES) to examine how instant-runoff voting (IRV) and Condorcet methods promote candidate moderation. Their model assumes an idealized electoral environment in which all voters possess complete information regarding candidates' ideological positions, all voters provide complete preference rankings, etc. Under these assumptions, their results indicate that Condorcet methods tend to yield winners who are substantially more moderate than those produced by IRV. We construct new models based on CES data which take into account more realistic voter behavior, such as the presence of partial ballots. Our general finding is that under more realistic models the differences between Condorcet methods and IRV largely disappear, implying that in real-world settings the moderating effect of Condorcet methods may not be nearly as strong as what is suggested by more theoretical models. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.03619 |
| By: | Cools, Angela; Moreno-Medina, Jonathan (University of Texas at San Antonio); Sheng, Sam |
| Abstract: | We estimate how exposure to religious services affects U.S. voting. Novel sermon corpora show a sharp spike in political content on the Sunday before presidential elections. Exploiting quasi-random rainfall during typical service hours before elections—Precipitation at Time of Church (PTC)—and controlling for election day and weekly precipitation, a one–standard deviation increase in PTC lowers county Republican vote share by 0.6 percentage points. The effect is driven by reduced Republican turnout. Individual-level estimates confirm that effects concentrate among church-attending Christians—particularly White Evangelicals—and are absent for non-churchgoers who face the same weather, consistent with church-based mobilization. |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ahky7_v1 |
| By: | da Silva, Lucas Paulo (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Media selection is an important form of political behavior that often shapes public opinion and voting. While most people select like-minded media, recent evidence suggests that media markets do not represent the growing populations of cross-pressured voters (CPVs) with "mixed" ideological positions. CPVs consist of two groups: "left-conservatives" are economically leftist and culturally conservative, while "right-progressives" are the reverse. Since CPVs are under-represented by political media outlets, how do they select outlets and content? My theory draws on another type of political behavior -- voting -- and adapts the prominent spatial voting model to political media selection. Hence, I argue that salience shapes outlet selection. Moreover, within an outlet, both salience and outlet ideology influence content selection. I administer a pre-registered survey to British CPVs that simulates the media selection process with two experiments. This is supplemented by large-scale, representative panel data from the UK, US, and Germany. My results indicate that (1) CPVs usually select right-conservative outlets, (2) salience likely has some influence over content selection within outlets, and (3) outlet ideology has a powerful effect on content selection. However, surprisingly, salience might not drive the initial outlet selection process, pointing to new avenues for research. This study has important implications for selective exposure, media effects, public opinion, and voting behavior. |
| Date: | 2026–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6rxve_v1 |
| By: | Burbidge, Dominic (University of Oxford); Cheeseman, Nic (University of Birmingham); Panin, Amma (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/CORE, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Reciprocity lies at the heart of vote buying but its exact role is nuanced. Politicians often offer money in exchange for votes. Yet citizens who reject bribery in the context of democratic political processes might view the exchange of money for votes as illegitimate, even if they enjoy reciprocal relationships with similar figures in other contexts. We test for the willingness of individuals to accept or reject electoral bribes using lab-in-the-field experiments in Ghana and Uganda. Participants play the roles of voters and candidates. Some candidates can offer a bribe before the vote. Voters are 14 percentage points more likely to vote for a candidate who had the opportunity to bribe but refrained from doing so. Cross-nationally, we draw on unique survey data that demonstrates respondents are more likely to reward non-bribing candidates in Ghana where there is a higher quality of democracy and stronger support for democratic norms and values. Individually, we find that voters who have had positive experiences and attitudes towards elections were more likely to vote for a candidate who did not bribe them. Taken together, these findings suggest that the lab-in-the-field results are best explained by the prevalence of democratic values among some respondents. |
| Keywords: | Elections ; Vote-buying ; Bribery ; Lab-in-the-field experiment ; Ghana ; Uganda |
| JEL: | D72 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cor:louvco:2025005 |
| By: | Massimo Bordignon (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Tommaso Colussi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews a growing body of theoretical and empirical research on Italian populism through a detailed examination of the Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle, M5S), focusing on its experience in municipal elections. Using a wide range of administrative and survey data, as well as theoretical modelling, the paper analyses the determinants of M5S success in municipal elections. The evidence shows that while the dual-ballot system initially favored M5S candidates, their time in municipal office was short-lived, as M5S incumbents were less likely to be re-elected than mayors from traditional parties. This electoral decline is linked not only to the loss of ideological ambiguity but also to weak administrative performance. The analysis further documents a lasting populist legacy in the form of reduced trust in democratic institutions following M5S local governance. Evidence from the COVID-19 period further shows that targeted redistributive policies reduced support for populist parties. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of institutional context in shaping populist success, the governance challenges faced by outsider movements, and the conditions under which populist support can be contained or reversed. |
| Keywords: | Populism; Municipal elections; Five Star Movement; Electoral institutions. |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H70 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def150 |
| By: | Raphaël Descamps; Benjamin Marx; Vincent Pons; Vincent Rollet |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the global incumbency advantage. We first show that existing subnational estimates of the incumbency advantage correlate positively with GDP per capita and democratic quality, and negatively with corruption across countries. Building on this meta-analysis, we then consider all presidential and parliamentary elections held since 1945 to estimate how a national electoral victory affects the probability that winning parties and candidates retain power beyond the term for which they were elected. On average, national election winners benefit from an incumbency advantage, but this effect is short-lived and differs markedly across contexts: it is large in Africa, North America, and Western Europe, but muted or even reversed in other regions. We explore how standard incumbency effects and electoral manipulation contribute to these results. In established democracies, the national incumbency advantage reflects gains in the subsequent electoral performance of election winners. In less democratic regimes, it mainly stems from manipulation of the fairness and the timing of elections. Overall, this advantage is largest in both the most and the least democratic countries, due to radically different types of equilibria. |
| JEL: | D72 O43 P0 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34968 |
| By: | Brooks, Sarah M. (Ohio State University); Cunha, Raphael (King's College London); Mosley, Layna |
| Abstract: | How do financial markets affect mass attitudes toward candidates in democratic elections? We theorize that, especially in financially open countries in the Global South, voters respond to financial market assessments of candidates for national election. We expect that they do so via two mechanisms: first, voters may be aware that financial market movements can affect material outcomes, such as the prospects for future economic growth and the likelihood of debt distress. Second, voters rely on financial markets for cues regarding candidates' economic policy competence. Using data from an original randomized survey experiment conducted during the 2022 Brazilian presidential election campaign, we find evidence for both the material and the cue-taking mechanisms. Our results identify a previously underappreciated way in which financial markets can affect domestic politics, viz., through their influence on citizens' attitudes toward political candidates. |
| Date: | 2026–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8b5r6_v1 |
| By: | Eunjee Kwon; Marcel Henkel; Pierre Magontier |
| Abstract: | We document that U.S. hurricanes striking close to Election Day trigger larger public spending responses and sustained population inflows than comparable hurricanes occurring between elections. Exploiting quasi-random variation in hurricane timing, we show that electoral incentives shape post- disaster policy with lasting spatial consequences. A quantitative spatial equilibrium model implies that eliminating these electoral timing distortions would raise aggregate welfare by 0.025%, but the aggregate gain masks an 18:1 asymmetry in per-capita stakes between losers and gainers. This distributional asymmetry rationalizes the persistence of these electoral distortions. |
| Keywords: | natural disasters, political budget cycles |
| JEL: | Q54 D72 H53 H84 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1566 |