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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Thushyanthan Baskaran; Zohal Hessami; Alexander Sohl |
| Abstract: | Populist far-right politicians are increasingly successful across the globe. However, we know little about the personal characteristics of rank-and-file far-right politicians and what part of their success is due to these characteristics. We use hand-collected data on more than 41, 000 political candidates for local council elections in the German state of Saxony to study the characteristics and electoral outcomes of Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) politicians. We find that AfD candidates are new entrants to local politics rather than turncoats from other parties. AfD candidates also differ in observable characteristics from candidates of more established parties. However, "characteristics space" demand estimations show that AfD candidates' electoral success is due to voters' strong preference for the AfD "party brand". In fact, voters evaluate (the observed traits of) AfD candidates more negatively than most other parties' candidates. We decompose the party brand effect into distinct policy dimensions and identify the AfD's stance on refugees and gender issues as particularly salient to voters. |
| Keywords: | populism, political selection, local councils, demand estimation, BLP model |
| JEL: | H71 H72 R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12199 |
| By: | Ferlenga, Francesco (Department of Economics, University of Warwick); Kang, Stephanie (Market Development, ISO New England) |
| Abstract: | We study how expanding immigrants' rights affects their political and social integration by leveraging Romania's 2007 EU accession, which granted Romanian immigrants in Italy municipal voting and residency rights. Using municipality-level event studies, we find: (1) Enfranchisement increased the election of Romanian-born councilors - especially in competitive races - despite limited changes in candidacy rates. It also increased Romanian turnout, suggesting that electoral gains stem from an expanded voter base. An instrumented difference-in-differences analysis shows this is driven by pre-existing Romanian residents, not new arrivals. (2) Consent to organ donation rose among Romanians post-2007, indicating that the expansion of rights extends to prosocial behavior. (3) Nonetheless, immigrant presence continues to raise support for right-leaning parties and security spending while reducing social spending, highlighting persistent native backlash that outweighs immigrant political influence. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:775 |
| By: | Clifton-Sprigg, Joanna (University of Bath); Homburg, Ines (University of Antwerp); Vujic, Suncica (University of Antwerp) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of immigration on voting behaviour. Exploiting a unique natural experiment, we research parliamentary election results in Poland following the 2022 inflow of Ukrainian refugees. We exploit the variation in hosted refugees across Polish counties and utilise a shift-share instrument based on the past settlement of Ukrainian immigrants. We find increased support for far-right and right-wing (incumbent) political groups, at the expense of centre parties. There is important regional variation in this overall pattern. The more liberal areas in west Poland experienced political polarisation, with both far-right and left-wing parties gaining support. Furthermore, the rise in far-right support is particularly pronounced in rural counties, low wage counties, and those bordering Ukraine. The effects are driven by changing voter preferences, rather than election participation or natives’ internal mobility, and are not rooted in adverse economic effects. Our findings show that exposure to refugees, even those with a similar background and favourable profile, can still be associated with natives’ backlash. |
| Keywords: | election results, refugee exposure, forced migration, Russia-Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D72 D74 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18157 |
| By: | José J. Bercoff (Universidad Nacional de Tucumán); Esteban Nicolini (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid/Universidad Nacional de Tucumán) |
| Abstract: | An ecological analysis of the general election in Argentina in 1946 suggests that the votes for Perón were higher in districts with high levels of social and economic development (relatively larger proportions literates and industrial employees and relatively higher wages), more affected by electoral fraud and with a smaller specialization in export-oriented activities. The ecological inference analysis strongly suggest that this characterization of districts is also a good characterization of the groups supporting Peron in the election: literates (rather than illiterates), industrial employees (rather than the rest of the population), urban dwellers (rather than rural dwellers) and migrants (rather than natives) had significantly higher probability of voting Perón. The support for Perón originated in a variety of motivations from different social groups that reacted against the traditional political model. |
| Keywords: | Economic voting; Perón presidential election; Ecological Inference |
| JEL: | N46 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:374 |
| By: | Chenlan Wang; Jimin Han; Diana Jue-Rajasingh |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a game-theoretic model and an agent-based model to study group formation driven by resource pooling, spatial cohesion, and heterogeneity. We focus on cross-sector partnerships (CSPs) involving public, private, and nonprofit organizations, each contributing distinct resources. Group formation occurs as agents strategically optimize their choices in response to others within a competitive setting. We prove the existence of stable group equilibria and simulate formation dynamics under varying spatial and resource conditions. The results show that limited individual resources lead to groups that form mainly among nearby actors, while abundant resources allow groups to move across larger distances. Increased resource heterogeneity and spatial proximity promote the formation of larger and more diverse groups. These findings reveal key trade-offs shaping group size and composition, guiding strategies for effective cross-sector collaborations and multi-agent systems. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.18551 |
| By: | Onil Boussim |
| Abstract: | In difference-in-differences (DiD) settings with categorical outcomes, treatment effects often operate on both total quantities (e.g., voter turnout) and category shares (e.g., vote distribution across parties). In this context, linear DiD models can be problematic: they suffer from scale dependence, may produce negative counterfactual quantities, and are inconsistent with discrete choice theory. We propose compositional DiD (CoDiD), a new method that identifies counterfactual categorical quantities, and thus total levels and shares, under a parallel growths assumption. The assumption states that, absent treatment, each category's size grows or shrinks at the same proportional rate in treated and control groups. In a random utility framework, we show that this implies parallel evolution of relative preferences between any pair of categories. Analytically, we show that it also means the shares are reallocated in the same way in both groups in the absence of treatment. Finally, geometrically, it corresponds to parallel trajectories (or movements) of probability mass functions of the two groups in the probability simplex under Aitchison geometry. We extend CoDiD to i) derive bounds under relaxed assumptions, ii) handle staggered adoption, and iii) propose a synthetic DiD analog. We illustrate the method's empirical relevance through two applications: first, we examine how early voting reforms affect voter choice in U.S. presidential elections; second, we analyze how the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) affected the composition of electricity generation across sources such as coal, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.11659 |
| By: | Schib, Tobias; Strebel, Michael A.; Stutzer, Alois |
| Abstract: | A functioning democracy relies on individuals motivated to take on political office. In recent decades, concerns have grown across Western democracies about increasing political alienation and a declining willingness among citizens to engage in politics. To systematically assess this phenomenon, we introduce the concept of latent political engagement defined as an underlying, non-specific motivation to take on the responsibilities of a political mandate, whether or not it ultimately results in an actual candidacy. To capture it, we propose four survey questions. We fielded them using a large-scale, nationally representative survey of Swiss citizens in 2023. We present descriptive evidence for differences across various socio-economic groups and contextual factors. In particular, we find that individuals who are deeply invested in their municipality – whether through homeownership (economic capital) or membership in local associations (social capital) – exhibit higher levels of latent political engagement. Moreover, municipality size emerges as a key predictor, with small jurisdictions being particularly conducive to fostering a willingness to take on political mandates. Additionally, we provide evidence of language-cultural differences, as native German-speaking individuals are substantially more likely than French speakers to have ever considered holding political office. |
| JEL: | D72 J45 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2025/03 |
| By: | Douglas Cumming; Sofia Johan; Ikenna Uzuegbunam |
| Abstract: | We propose two opposing forces that impact the relation between electoral integrity and poverty. On the one hand, it is more costly to provide electoral integrity in states where there is more poverty due to transaction costs and opportunity costs. On the other hand, extreme levels of poverty attract media scrutiny and greater external monitoring of electoral integrity, giving rise to more demand for electoral integrity. Taken together, we expect electoral integrity to be a U-shaped function of poverty. We also hypothesize that electoral integrity will vary depending on the strength of state electoral laws. Expert-level survey data on electoral integrity from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election and the 2018 U.S. congressional election, in combination with U.S. state-level data on poverty are strongly consistent with these predictions. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.15343 |
| By: | Andrzej Baranski; Ernesto Reuben; Arno Riedl |
| Abstract: | In a laboratory experiment, we study the role of fairness ideals as focal points in coordination problems in homogeneous and heterogeneous groups. We elicit the normatively preferred behavior about how a subsequent coordination game should be played. In homogeneous groups, people share a unique fairness ideal how to solve the coordination problem, whereas in heterogeneous groups, multiple conflicting fairness ideals prevail. In the coordination game, homogeneous groups are significantly more likely than their heterogeneous counterparts to sustain efficient coordination. The reason is that homogeneous groups coordinate on the unique fairness ideal, whereas heterogeneous groups disagree on the fairness ideal to be played. In both types of groups, equilibria consistent with fairness ideals are most stable. Hence, the difference in coordination success between homogeneous and heterogeneous groups occurs because of the normative disagreement in the latter types of group, making it much harder to reach an equilibrium at a fairness ideal. |
| Keywords: | fairness ideals, focal points, coordination, cooperation, experiment |
| JEL: | H41 C92 D63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12195 |