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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Richter, Dirk (Bern University of Applied Sciences); Richter, Mona |
| Abstract: | Democracy is under threat in many countries, particularly from illiberal and right-wing populist parties. This does not reveal a social trend towards conservatism and right-wing to far-right positions among the population of current democracies, as moral and social attitudes are generally becoming increasingly liberalised. The shift to the right is primarily taking place within the political system, where right-wing conservative and illiberal parties are recognising insecurities among the population and taking up certain trigger topics (e.g. migration, climate, gender and identity issues) in order to increase their share of the vote. To put it in economic terms: The shift to the right does not follow a demand from the voting population, but follows a supply by political parties. Political systems can therefore react accordingly and counter populist positions appropriately. Progressive-left parties can do this by ensuring that the issues and positions they launch do not exacerbate social insecurities, while conservative-right parties can do this by maintaining a clear distance from illiberal positions in terms of content and rhetoric. |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2p38n_v1 |
| By: | Nicole Gorton; Cecile Gaubert; Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Eduardo Morales; Edouard Schaal |
| Abstract: | How do political preferences shape transportation policy? We study this question in the context of California’s High-Speed Rail (CHSR). Combining geographic data on votes in a referendum on the CHSR with a model of its expected economic benefits, we estimate the weight of economic and non-economic considerations in voters’preferences. Then, comparing the proposed distribution of CHSR stations with alternative placements, we use a revealed-preference approach to estimate policymakers’ preferences for redistribution and popular approval. While voters did respond to expected real-income benefits, non-economic factors were a more important driver of the spatial distribution of voters’ preferences for the CHSR. While the voter-approved CHSR would have led to modest income gains, proposals with net income losses also would have been approved due to political preferences. For the planner, we identify strong preferences for popular approval. A politically-blind planner would have placed the stations closer to dense metro areas in California. |
| Keywords: | political economy, infrastructure, transportation |
| JEL: | H54 P11 R13 R4 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1397 |
| By: | von der Heyde, Leah (LMU Munich); Haensch, Anna-Carolina; Wenz, Alexander (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | UPDATED VERSION AT https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.08563 The recent development of large language models (LLMs) has spurred discussions about whether LLM-generated “synthetic samples” could complement or replace traditional surveys, considering their training data potentially reflects attitudes and behaviors prevalent in the population. A number of mostly US-based studies have prompted LLMs to mimic survey respondents, finding that the responses closely match the survey data. However, several contextual factors related to the relationship between the respective target population and LLM training data might affect the generalizability of such findings. In this study, we investigate the extent to which LLMs can estimate public opinion in Germany, using the example of vote choice as outcome of interest. To generate a synthetic sample of eligible voters in Germany, we create personas matching the individual characteristics of the 2017 German Longitudinal Election Study respondents. Prompting GPT-3 with each persona, we ask the LLM to predict each respondents’ vote choice in the 2017 German federal elections and compare these predictions to the survey-based estimates on the aggregate and subgroup levels. We find that GPT-3 does not predict citizens’ vote choice accurately, exhibiting a bias towards the Green and Left parties, and making better predictions for more “typical” voter subgroups. While the language model is able to capture broad-brush tendencies tied to partisanship, it tends to miss out on the multifaceted factors that sway individual voter choices. Furthermore, our results suggest that GPT-3 might not be reliable for estimating nuanced, subgroup-specific political attitudes. By examining the prediction of voting behavior using LLMs in a new context, our study contributes to the growing body of research about the conditions under which LLMs can be leveraged for studying public opinion. The findings point to disparities in opinion representation in LLMs and underscore the limitation of applying them for public opinion estimation without accounting for the biases in their training data. |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8je9g_v1 |
| By: | Cotofan, Maria; Kuralbayeva, Karlygash; Matakos, Konstantinos |
| Abstract: | This study examines how regional temperature variations across OECD countries influence political behavior and support for offset policies. Our analysis reveals that exposure to higher temperatures correlates with political moderation, reduced backing for extreme and populist parties, heightened climate concerns, and increased support for environmentally conscious agendas. These effects are primarily driven by older individuals, who exhibit increased concerns about climate change and the economic costs of climate policies following temperature spikes. Moreover, they express support for policies aimed at mitigating these economic impacts. Conversely, younger individuals show less apprehension about the economic consequences of climate policies and demonstrate readiness to bear them, including through higher energy bills. These findings emphasize the necessity of accounting for age-related perspectives when formulating effective climate policies for the future. |
| Keywords: | preference formation; environmental policies; policy support; voting |
| JEL: | D83 H23 H31 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126818 |
| By: | Alrababah, Ala; Beerli, Andreas Jürg; Hangartner, Dominik; Ward, Dalston |
| Abstract: | The main theories explaining electoral backlash against immigration focus on citizens' cultural, economic, and security concerns. We test these predictions in Switzerland, which opened its labor market to neighboring countries in the 2000s. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we document a substantial rise in immigrant workers in Swiss border municipalities after the border opened. This was accompanied by a 6-percentage-point (95% confidence interval: 2--10) increase in support for anti-immigrant parties, equivalent to a 32% rise at the mean. However, we find no adverse effects on citizens' employment, wages, or subjective perceptions of economic, cultural, or security threats. Instead, we describe how far-right parties introduced novel narratives related to overcrowding to advance hostility toward immigrants. We provide evidence that this rhetoric targeted border municipalities, where it had the greatest impact on voters susceptible to political persuasion. Together, these findings suggest that elites can play a role in driving anti-immigrant votes. |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hgczq_v1 |