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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Christopher Blattman; Horacio Larreguy; Benjamin Marx; Otis Reid |
| Abstract: | We study a large-scale intervention designed by civil society organizations to reduce vote buying in Uganda’s 2016 elections. We study this intervention in light of a model where incumbents benefit from a first-mover and valence advantage, vote buying and campaigning are complementary, and voter reciprocity increases the effectiveness of vote buying. The intervention undermined reciprocity as well as the valence advantage of incumbents. As a result, challengers not only campaigned more intensively but also bought more votes in treated locations. Consistent with incumbents being first movers in markets for votes and facing more frictions to adjust their strategies than challengers, their response to the intervention was limited. The intervention ultimately failed to reduce vote buying, but led to short-run electoral gains for challengers and increased service delivery in treated locations. |
| Keywords: | elections, voting behaviour, field experiment, Africa |
| JEL: | C93 D72 O55 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11247 |
| By: | Yoichi Hizen; Kazuya Kikuchi; Yukio Koriyama; Takehito Masuda |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study voter turnout in two-tier elections when the electorate consists of multiple groups, such as states. Votes are aggregated within the groups by the winner-take-all rule or the proportional rule, and the group-level decisions are combined to determine the winner. We observe that, compared with the theoretical prediction, turnout is significantly lower in the minority camp (the Titanic effect) and significantly higher in the majority camp (the behavioral bandwagon effect), and these effects are stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. As a result, the distribution of voter welfare becomes more unequal than theoretically predicted, and this welfare effect is stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.00265 |
| By: | Nils D. Steiner (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany); Sven Hillen (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This contribution studies voting intentions for the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) from a policy-space perspective. What makes the new German party special is its unusual bundling of economically left-wing with culturally right-wing positions. We turn to survey data from March 2024 (GLES Tracking T57) to assess how this bundling is reflected in the positions of their supporters. Distinguishing between an economic policy dimension, a transnational dimension and a traditional morality dimension, we find that the probability of intending to vote for the BSW increases with more left-wing economic positions and with more nationalist positions. Conservative positions on traditional morality are not meaningfully associated with the overall probability of a BSW vote but make it more likely to support BSW rather than the Greens and less likely to support BSW relative to the AfD. We conclude that the policy-space perspective holds potential to understand the party’s early success, but that its voters are better characterized as ‘left-nationalists’ than ‘left-conservatives’. |
| Keywords: | BSW; German politics, issue voting; policy space. |
| Date: | 2024–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2413 |
| By: | Stutzmann, Sophia |
| Abstract: | Climate policies can have adverse social and economic effects on affected citizens. Against this backdrop, understanding the conditions under which electoral support or backlash to such policies occurs is crucial. In this paper, I set out to shed light on this issue by empirically analysing the electoral repercussions of the coal phase-out in Germany. By employing a series of fixed-effects models, I investigate whether the closures of coal plants and mines between 2007 and 2022 affected voting behaviour at the municipality level. I find that closures result in lower vote shares for the Social Democratic Party and higher abstention rates in affected municipalities. These findings document a punishment of the long-time issue owner and point towards the role of economic grievances in curbing political engagement. With the high politicisation around the issue of fossil fuel energy generation, these findings have important implications for the remaining coal phase-outs worldwide. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300836 |
| By: | Horn, Alexander; Haselmayer, Martin; Klüser, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Do parties respond to inequality? Despite the growing relevance of economic disparities and their negative political and societal consequences, our understanding of party competition over redistribution remains limited. Thus far, research had to rely on broad salience scores of socio-economic positions from party manifestos rather than parties' distinct stances on (economic) inequality. To tackle this limitation, we introduce a novel (Varieties of Egalitarianism) dataset on party stances on economic inequality, equal chances, and equal rights for OECD countries over five decades (1970-2020). We demonstrate that responsiveness found in previous studies is driven by non-economic equality concepts. We then re-assess the impact of "inequality" on party responsiveness. Theoretically, we question (left) parties' responsiveness to levels of inequality. Low visibility of levels and system justification beliefs undermine the mobilization of those voters most in need of redistribution. As a result of the electoral disincentives, left parties do not emphasize economic equality. By contrast, rising inequality is visible and poses a real electoral threat that left parties should address via economic egalitarianism. In line with these rationales, we find that 1) (left) parties do not respond to inequality levels but 2) left parties do respond to increases in inequality when their below-median core groups fall behind. In the concluding discussion; we argue that our results suggest that a ratchet pattern could stabilize entrenched inequality. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300854 |
| By: | Haiges, Lea; Zuber, Christina Isabel |
| Abstract: | While indigenous movements often keep a deliberate distance from their states, political connections can be important to effect policy change. How do indigenous organizations navigate this challenge? This article analyses the electoral strategies of 19 indigenous organizations during elections in Ecuador and Peru. The analysis draws on an original data-set of organizational communication on social media, complemented with semi-structured interviews conducted during field work. We find that most organizations engage actively with elections. Aside from a more expected strategy of protesting election outcomes, they also call on followers to vote and actively mobilize in favor or against certain candidates, participating within, rather than against the state. An allied indigenous party (Pachakutik in Ecuador) does not explain organizations' engagement with elections per se, but it does affect the rationale for choosing one or the other strategy: organizational reasons dominated in Ecuador, while shared identity was most important in Peru. |
| Keywords: | indigenous movements, social movements, electoral campaign, socialmedia, Ecuador, Peru |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300841 |