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on Collective Decision-Making |
| By: | Wayne Aaron Sandholtz |
| Abstract: | Public service reform often entails broad benefits for society and concentrated costs for interest groups. These groups’ political responses determine whether electoral incentives exist to improve public services. This paper examines the electoral effects of a randomized Liberian school reform which increased student learning but antagonized teachers. On average, this policy reduced the incumbent party’s presidential vote share by 3 percentage points (10%). It had no significant impact on legislative races, consistent with correct attribution by voters; information experiments with candidates and voters further suggest a well-informed electorate. The policy also reduced teachers’ job satisfaction by 0.18s and lowered their participation in political activity by 0.22s. I use the policy’s pairwise randomization to study how its electoral effects varied across the (orthogonal) distributions of treatment effects on student learning and teacher political activity. The policy increased vote share more where it caused greater student learning, and reduced vote share more where it caused greater political disengagement of teachers. (Treatment effects on student learning and teacher political involvement were uncorrelated.) Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that the policy could have won votes on net if the floor on learning effects had been the 27th percentile, and the floor on teacher political involvement effects had been the 30th percentile. This paper shows empirically that electoral rewards correlate with the size of public service improvements, but that politically feasible reforms must balance voter rewards with the costs of alienating interest groups. |
| Keywords: | Electoral returns; Policy feedback; Public service delivery; Policy experimentation; Education; Political economy; Elections; Randomized controlled trial; Liberia; Information |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2023-15&r=cdm |
| By: | Juan F. Vargas; Miguel E. Purroy; Felipe Coy; Sergio Perilla; Mounu Prem |
| Abstract: | Criminal groups use violence strategically to manipulate the behavior of vic- tims and bystanders. At the same time, violence is a stimulus that causes fear, which also shapes people’s reactions. Taking advantage of the randomness in the timing of antiperson- nel landmine accidents in Colombia, as well as their coordinates relative to those of voting polls, we identify the effect of violence-induced fear (independent from intentions) on elec- toral behavior. Fortuitous landmine explosions reduce political participation. We further disentangle whether the type of fear caused by landmine explosions responds to an informa- tion channel (whereby people learn about the risk of future victimization) or by the salience of the explosion (which causes individuals to make impulsive decisions, driven by survival considerations), and show evidence in favor of the latter. While the turnout reduction takes place across the ideological spectrum, we document that the explosions induce a shift in the political preferences of individuals who do vote. These findings point to worrisome potential consequences for the consolidation of democracies in places affected by conflict. |
| Keywords: | Landmine explosions, conflict, voting, salience, fear |
| JEL: | D72 D74 P48 |
| Date: | 2023–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:020801&r=cdm |
| By: | Christa N. Brunnschweiler; Samuel K. Obeng |
| Abstract: | We examine how local governments’ political alignment with central government affects subnational fiscal outcomes. In theory, alignment could be rewarded for example with more intergovernmental transfers, or swing voters in unaligned constituencies could be targeted instead. We analyze data from Ghana, which has a complex decentralized system that seeks to preclude political alignment effects. District Chief Executives (DCEs) are centrally appointed local administrators loyal to the ruling party, while district Members of Parliament (MPs) may belong to another party. A formula for central transfer distribution aims to limit the influence of party politics. Using a new dataset for 1994-2018 and a close election regression discontinuity design we find that despite this system, there is evidence of politically-motivated local fiscal outcomes. Aligned districts receive lower transfers and have lower district expenditure and internally generated funds, indicating swing-voter targeting. Results suggest that district fragmentations have weakened these effects. We also show strong electoral cycle effects, with mid-term peaks in fiscal outcomes. |
| Keywords: | political alignment, Ghana, regression discontinuity, electoral cycles, fiscal federalism |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2023-14&r=cdm |
| By: | Andrea Bernini; Giovanni Facchini; Marco Tabellini; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | The 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA) paved the road to Black empowerment. How did southern whites respond? Leveraging newly digitized data on county-level voter registration rates by race between 1956 and 1980, and exploiting pre-determined variation in exposure to the federal intervention, we document that the VRA increases both Black and white political participation. Consistent with the VRA triggering counter mobilization, the surge in white registrations is concentrated where Black political empowerment is more tangible and salient due to the election of African Americans in county commissions. Additional analysis suggests that the VRA has long-lasting negative effects on whites’ racial attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Civil Rights, Race, Voting Behaviour, Enfranchisement |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2023-02&r=cdm |
| By: | Daryna Grechyna |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the evolution of public policies before the scheduled political elections based on the government responses to the Covid pandemic. The results of an event study in a sample of countries that experienced political elections during the first year of the pandemic suggest that “lockdown style” policies were more stringent the further away countries were from election dates. The gradual relaxation of “lockdown style” restrictions ahead of the elections was driven by policies in low income, less democratic countries, and countries with relatively low social trust. Covid-related “economic support” policies were not significantly affected by the scheduled political elections. Placebo tests based on a random sample of countries that did not experience political elections in the first year of the pandemic confirm the validity of the results. |
| Keywords: | political cycles, event study, Covid pandemic |
| JEL: | D72 C23 O57 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10544&r=cdm |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Ivan Yotzov; Thiemo René Fetzer |
| Abstract: | This paper documents that surprise election outcomes – measured as deviations between realised vote shares and expected vote shares based on a newly constructed dataset of opinion polls and party and candidate vote shares close to election day – are causing non-negligible short-term contractions in economic activity. We find that, on average, a percentage point higher surprise is associated with a 0.37 percentage point lower year-on-year growth rate one year after the election. These effects are only present in countries with strong democracies and seem to operate mainly through increased economic policy uncertainty and lower investment growth over a window of up to eight quarters after an election. In addition, surprise performances of left-wing political parties and in elections with transitions to left-wing governments (pre-defined from the Parlgov Database) are associated with the largest effects on the economy. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic fluctuations, elections, structural reforms, surprises, uncertainty |
| JEL: | E02 E30 F50 E32 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10584&r=cdm |
| By: | Nicolas Berman; Björn Brey; Jérémy Laurent-Lucchetti |
| Abstract: | This study shows that military attacks —through fear and panic— can distort political behavior and create a “conservative shift” in subsequent elections. Using the distance to the Ellwood bombardment in 1942, a shelling of civilian installations on the US mainland during WW2 which caused minimal damage but that created a large wave of panic, we find that support for Republican candidates increased in subsequent Gubernatorial, Presidential and House elections in Californian counties in the vicinity of the incident. Interestingly, the effect appears to persist for a long time, even after WW2 ended. Using a large corpus of articles from Californian newspapers and text analysis, we provide evidence that the event led to a persistent shift in conservative beliefs of local communities. We conclude that attacks, through their psychological effects, might have long-run consequences through preference-shifting and changes in voting behaviors. |
| Keywords: | attack, bombing, elections, conservatism, World War II |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2023-06&r=cdm |
| By: | Jacob R. Brown; Enrico Cantoni; Ryan D. Enos; Vincent Pons; Emilie Sartre |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on trends in geographic partisan segregation. Using two individual-level panel datasets covering the near universe of the U.S. population between 2008 and 2020, we leverage information on individuals’ party affiliation to construct two key indicators: i) the fraction of Democrats among voters affiliated with either major party, which reveals that partisan segregation has increased across geographical units, at the tract, county, and congressional district levels; ii) The dissimilarity index, which measures differences in the partisan mix across distinct sub-units and highlights that partisan segregation has also increased within geographical units. Tracking individuals across election years, we decompose changes in partisan segregation into different sources: voter migration, generational change, older voters entering the electorate, and voters changing their partisanship or their registration status. The rise in partisan segregation is mostly driven by generational change, in Democratic-leaning areas, and by the increasing ideological conformity of stayers, in Republican-leaning areas. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2023-09&r=cdm |
| By: | Luca Bellodi; Massimo Morelli; Antonio Nicolò; Paolo Roberti |
| Abstract: | The decline in voters' trust in government and the rise of populism are two concerning features of contemporary politics. In this paper, we present a model of commitment politics that elucidates the interplay between distrust and populism. Candidates supply policy commitments to mitigate voters' distrust in government, shrinking politicians' levels of discretion typical of representative democracies. Alongside commitments, candidates rationally choose the main strategies associated with populism, namely anti-elite and pro-people rhetoric. With novel data on voters' distrust towards the U.S. federal government, which we match with the Twitter activity of more than 2, 000 candidates over _ve congressional elections, we show that distrust is strongly associated with candidates' supply of commitments and populist rhetoric, which are also e_ective strategies at mobilizing distrustful voters. We also show theoretically that the shift to commitment politics determines greater aversion to checks and balances, and hence even illiberal populism can emerge. |
| Keywords: | Populism, Commitment, Anti-Elite Rhetoric, Trust, Turnout, Agencies of Restraint |
| JEL: | D72 D78 P16 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp23204&r=cdm |
| By: | Alejandra Agustina Martínez |
| Abstract: | Do peers influence individuals’ involvement in political activism? To provide a quantitative answer, I study Argentina’s abortion rights debate through Twitter - the social media platform. Pro-choice and pro-life activists coexisted online, and the evidence suggests peer groups were not too polarized. I develop a model of strategic interactions in a network - allowing for heterogeneous peer effects. Next, I estimate peer effects and test whether online activism exhibits strategic substitutability or complementarity. I create a novel panel dataset - where links and actions are observable - by combining tweets’ and users’ information. I provide a reduced-form analysis by proposing a network-based instrumental variable. The results indicate strategic complementarity in online activism, both from aligned and opposing peers. Notably, the evidence suggests homophily in the formation of Twitter’s network, but it does not support the hypothesis of an echo-chamber effect. |
| Keywords: | political activism; Peer effects; Social networks; Social media |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notnic:2023-05&r=cdm |