nep-cdm New Economics Papers
on Collective Decision-Making
Issue of 2022‒02‒07
two papers chosen by
Stan C. Weeber, McNeese State University

  1. Community organization and armed group behaviour: Evidence from Colombia By Margarita Gáfaro; Ana María Ibáñez; Patricia Justino
  2. Trust and Public Support for the Colombian Peace Agreement By Esmeralda Lopez

  1. By: Margarita Gáfaro; Ana María Ibáñez; Patricia Justino
    Abstract: This paper investigates how armed groups affect the organization of local communities during armed conflict in Colombia. We estimate the effect of communities' exposure to armed groups with an econometric specification that takes into account individual and municipality-year fixed effects and an instrumental variable approach that exploits variations in the presence of armed groups in rural communities induced by the peace negotiations with members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia—People's Army.
    Keywords: Armed conflict, Institutions, Colombia
    Date: 2022
  2. By: Esmeralda Lopez (University of North Texas, United States)
    Abstract: The 2016 Colombian peace agreement failed by a narrow margin when put to a public vote, but a month later, the legislature bypassed the need for public support officially ending the 52-year armed conflict between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia [FARC]. Today, few promises of the agreement have come to fruition, leaving Colombia’s rural population in need and causing some ex-combatants to return to the FARC. While some attributed failure of the peace agreement to low voter turnout, a better understanding of the public’s lack of support for the peace agreement is needed. This study uses logistic regression to analyze 2016 survey data from the Latin American Public Opinion Project to examine how institutional trust correlates with predicting support for the Colombian peace agreement. Variables such as public opinion regarding trust in government institutions (the legislature, executive, judiciary, and elections) and trust in the FARC, including a belief that the FARC will demobilize, are included within the study. The model supports the hypothesis that greater trust in institutions increases the probability that the respondent will support the peace agreement. Five of the six variables are statistically significant, and the trust in the national legislature variable is approaching significance. Future studies related to this topic should include greater analysis of Colombia’s rural population who was most affected by forced displacement and other forms of violence during the conflict.
    Keywords: Colombia, armed conflict, peace agreement, public opinion, trust
    Date: 2021–08

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