|
on Cognitive and Behavioural Economics |
|
Issue of 2025–02–10
four papers chosen by Marco Novarese, Università degli Studi del Piemonte Orientale |
| By: | David Gonzalez-Jimenez (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Francesco Capozza (WZB - Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung); Thomas Dirkmaat; Evelien van de Veer; Amber van Druten; Aurélien Baillon (EM - EMLyon Business School) |
| Abstract: | Prior experiences are crucial in shaping risk prevention behavior. Previous studies have shown that experiencing a simulated phishing attack (a "phishing drill") reduces the likelihood of clicking on unsafe links and disclosing one's password. In a large field experiment involving 670 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and their 33, 000 employees, we examined the impact of experience on individuals' ability to detect cyber-security threats, and whether this effect persisted over several months. We collected data at both the company and individual levels, including risk preference, time preference, and trust. Our findings indicate only a non-systematic, short-term effect of previous phishing emails on clicking behavior. A cluster of individuals with greater patience, trust, and risk seeking was more likely to click on phishing links in the first place but then also more likely to benefit from phishing drills. |
| Keywords: | Field experiment, Replication, Phishing drill, Prevention, Patience, Risk attitude |
| Date: | 2025–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04875787 |
| By: | Cédric Gutierrez (Bocconi University [Milan, Italy]); Emmanuel Kemel (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The consequences of most economic decisions are uncertain; they are conditional on events with unknown probabilities that decision makers evaluate based on their beliefs. In addition to consequences and beliefs, the context that generates events-the source of uncertainty-can also impact preferences, a pattern called source dependence. Despite its importance, there is currently no definition of source dependence that allows for comparisons across individuals and sources. This paper presents a tractable definition of source dependence by introducing a function that matches the subjective probabilities of events generated by two sources. It also presents methods for estimating such functions from a limited number of observations that are compatible with commonly-used choice-based approaches for separating attitudes from beliefs. As an illustration, we implement these methods on three datasets, including two original experiments, and show that they consistently capture clear, albeit heterogeneous, patterns of source dependence between natural sources. Our approach provides a framework for future research to explore how source dependence varies across individuals and situations. |
| Keywords: | Decision under uncertainty ambiguity aversion sources of uncertainty subjective beliefs source dependence familiarity bias. JEL Classification: D81 DD91 C91, Decision under uncertainty, ambiguity aversion, sources of uncertainty, subjective beliefs, source dependence, familiarity bias. JEL Classification: D81, DD91, C91 |
| Date: | 2024–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04866878 |
| By: | Milovanska-Farrington, Stefani (The University of Tampa); Mateer, Dirk (University of Texas at Austin) |
| Abstract: | The sunk cost fallacy is typically covered in introductory economics courses. It is among the most important biases that influence decision making. Ronayne et al. (2021a, b) find evidence of behavior consistent with the sunk cost effect and utilize eight questions that measure individuals' susceptibility to the sunk cost fallacy. We extend their research by examining whether a "pop culture" teaching intervention in principles of microeconomics lowers students' predisposition to the fallacy. We find that students become -14.95% less susceptible to the sunk cost fallacy after learning about it. We also observe that students who have taken economics previously exhibit lower susceptibility in all time periods. |
| Keywords: | controlled experiment, empirical test, introductory economics, sunk cost fallacy, teaching economics |
| JEL: | A20 A22 I21 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17639 |
| By: | Bryan T. Kelly (Yale SOM; AQR Capital Management, LLC; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)); Semyon Malamud (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Swiss Finance Institute); Emil Siriwardane (Harvard Business School - Finance Unit; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)); Hongyu Wu (Yale School of Management) |
| Abstract: | We develop the concept of a Behavioral Impulse Response (BIR), which uses the dynamics of forecast errors to trace out how deviations from full-information rational expectations (FIRE) are corrected over time. BIRs based on professional forecasts of macroeconomics outcomes and corporate earnings imply that violations of FIRE occur much more frequently than suggested by existing tests. These deviations tend to correct gradually, often over several quarters, with sizable variation in correction speeds across different forecast targets and forecasters. Our theoretical analysis highlights why BIRs provide a simple yet powerful set of moments that can be used to discipline models of belief formation. |
| JEL: | C52 C53 D83 D84 E7 E17 G17 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2504 |