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on Central Banking |
| By: | Kosuke Aoki (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Enric Martorell (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Kalin Nikolov (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | We examine the interplay between monetary policy, bank risk-taking, and financial stability in a quantitative macroeconomic model with endogenous risk-taking by banks and systemic crises. Banks’ access to leverage depends on their charter value, which is itself affected by movements in the real interest rate. We find that permanent shifts in the long-term real interest rate have a significant impact on banks’ leverage and on their investments in systemically risky assets, while transitory movements have a more limited impact. We show that in the presence of systemic risk-taking, the systemic component of monetary policy faces a trade-off between price stability and financial stability. A moderate reaction to inflation deviations from the target is optimal, as it sustains banks’ equity value after financial crises. Seeking price stability reduces inflation volatility but leads to increased systemic risk-taking and more severe financial recessions. The optimal central bank policy combination involves an increase in regulatory bank capital requirements coupled with a moderate reaction of monetary policy to inflation. |
| Keywords: | financial intermediation, monetary policy, systemic risk, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2517 |
| By: | Carlo Alcaraz; Stijn Claessens; Gabriel Cuadra; David Marques-Ibanez; Horacio Sapriza |
| Abstract: | How does the credible announcement of an unconventional monetary policy intervention affect bank lending standards during crises? We use a major central bank announcement, the "whatever it takes" speech of the European Central Bank President that boosted the capital of banks, as a natural experiment. We compare changes in lending standards of subsidiaries of euro area versus other banks in a third country, Mexico. The speech reversed a prior trend of euro area banks augmenting their risk-taking via loan growth, lending rates, and credit risk. Our findings show that policies that amount to capitalization can reduce risk-taking in times of stress, adding a new dimension to the bank capital channel. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; financial institutions and regulation |
| JEL: | E51 G21 F34 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:101854 |
| By: | Konrad Kuhmann (Latvijas Banka) |
| Abstract: | Bank lending is a key factor in the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy. Using granular loan data on the euro area, I analyze how bank specialization interacts with the effects of monetary policy on credit. I first document that bank lending in the euro area is characterized by a substantial degree of specialization. That is, banks tend to be over-exposed to borrowers in certain industries and of certain size. I also find that higher specialization is generally associated with more favorable lending conditions. Most importantly, banks partly insulate their preferred borrowers from the consequences of monetary policy. In particular, they adjust interest rates and lending relatively less strongly for borrowers from groups in which they specialize. My findings suggest that bank specialization is relevant for the aggregate and distributional consequences of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Bank specialization, Bank lending, Monetary policy, AnaCredit |
| JEL: | E51 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:202506 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Emrehan Aktug; Altan Aldan; Unal Seven |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages a rare quasi-experiment—the unexpected September 2021 interest rate cut by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye—to examine how inflation expectations shape firm behavior in a high-inflation environment. Drawing on a rich dataset that combines monthly survey responses with administrative records, we exploit the heterogeneous revisions in firms’ inflation expectations triggered by the policy shock. Firms that significantly increased their inflation forecasts (treated) subsequently became more pessimistic about economic conditions, reduced employment, and curbed domestic sales. At the same time, they strategically raised procurement, acquired more foreign currency assets, and boosted borrowing in local currency—even at higher costs—in anticipation of debt erosion. These patterns suggest that firms’ heightened inflation expectations drive both defensive and opportunistic behaviors, ranging from hedging against currency depreciation to locking in lower financing costs. Overall, the findings highlight the critical role of inflation expectations in guiding firm-level decisions and document the importance of policy credibility in volatile macroeconomic settings. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, Firm behaviors, High inflation, Experimental macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E12 E24 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2516 |
| By: | Bowen Fu; Chenghan Hou; Jan Pr\"user |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a structural multivariate unobserved components model with external instrument (SMUC-IV) to investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on key U.S. macroeconomic "stars"-namely, the level of potential output, the growth rate of potential output, trend inflation, and the neutral interest rate. A key feature of our approach is the use of an external instrument to identify monetary policy shocks within the multivariate unob- served components modeling framework. We develop an MCMC estimation method to facilitate posterior inference within our proposed SMUC-IV frame- work. In addition, we propose an marginal likelihood estimator to enable model comparison across alternative specifications. Our empirical analysis shows that contractionary monetary policy shocks have significant negative effects on the macroeconomic stars, highlighting the nonzero long-run effects of transitory monetary policy shocks. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.05802 |
| By: | Ricardo J. Caballero; Alp Simsek |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of central bank communication where market participants' uncertainty about desired financial conditions creates misunderstandings ("tantrums") and amplifies the impact of financial noise on asset prices and economic activity. We show that directly communicating the expected financial conditions path (FCI-plot) eliminates tantrums and recruits arbitrageurs to insulate conditions from noise, while communicating expected interest rates alone fails to achieve these benefits. We demonstrate that scenario-based FCI-plot communication enhances recruitment when participants disagree with the central bank regarding scenario probabilities. This enables an "agree-to-disagree" equilibrium where markets help implement central bank objectives despite differing views. |
| JEL: | E12 E32 E44 E52 E58 G10 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34325 |
| By: | Behn, Markus; Reghezza, Alessio |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between capital requirements, capital ratios and bank competitiveness – measured as profit efficiency. Using data envelopment analysis techniques, profit efficiency scores were estimated for a sample of listed significant institutions directly supervised by the European Central Bank. In calculating the scores, use was made of rich supervisory data on bank-specific characteristics and capital requirements, in addition to macroeconomic variables. The findings revealed that capital requirements do not have a statistically significant effect on profit efficiency. The insignificant relationship also held true when capital requirements were broken down into microprudential and macroprudential requirements. For capital ratios, the relationship with profit efficiency was linearly statistically insignificant, but did display a statistically significant non-linear relationship that followed an inverted U-shape: profit efficiency rose with capital up to a threshold (estimated at a common equity tier 1 ratio of around 18%), after which further increases curbed profit efficiency. These findings were robust to a wide battery of robustness checks, including an extension of the sample to unlisted banks and the use of different efficiency measures and of various methods to control for confounding factors. These results underscore the need for policymakers to ensure that banks remain resilient, maintain strong capital ratios and manage risk well. In addition, they point to the intricate link between bank capital, regulation and competitiveness, contributing to the ongoing debate about the European banking sector’s ability to support economic growth and innovation. JEL Classification: G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | bank profits, capital buffers, financial stability, macroprudential policy |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2025376 |
| By: | Julián A. Cárdenas-Cárdenas; Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia; Eliana González-Molano; Carlos Huertas-Campos |
| Abstract: | The credibility of a central bank is reflected in the agent’s expectations of the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) and affects the behavior of interest rates in the economy. This document includes these expectations in various models that estimate the pass-through of monetary policy to CD and credit interest rates for the Colombian case. Compared with previous works that only include the observed MPR, the models that incorporate MPR expectations show stronger correlations with CD and credit rates, and faster transmission. It was also found that when analyzing periods of increases and decreases of the MPR, the transmission is asymmetric. However, it was found that the asymmetry in transmission between periods of MPR increases and decreases varies over time. In the short term, transmission tends to be more rapid during phases of MPR decline. Conversely, over longer horizons, transmission appears to be more pronounced during periods of MPR increase. *****RESUMEN: La credibilidad de un banco central se refleja en las expectativas de la tasa de interés de política monetaria (TPM) de los agentes y afecta el comportamiento de las tasas de interés de la economía. En este documento se incluyeron estas expectativas en varios modelos que estiman el traspaso de la política monetaria a las tasas de interés de CDTs y de crédito para el caso colombiano. Frente a trabajos anteriores que sólo incluían la TPM observada, los modelos que incluyen las expectativas de la TPM registran correlaciones más altas con las tasas de CDs y de crédito y menores tiempos de traspaso. También se encontró que, cuando la muestra se divide entre periodos de aumentos y descensos de la TPM, el traspaso es asimétrico. Sin embargo, se encontró que la asimetría en la transmisión entre períodos de aumento y disminución de la TPM varía con el tiempo. En el corto plazo, la transmisión tiende a ser más rápida durante las fases de disminución de la TPM. Por el contrario, a horizontes más largos la transmisión puede ser más acentuada durante periodos de incrementos de la TPM. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Interest rate pass-through, Expectations, Política monetaria, transmisión de tasas de interés, expectativas |
| JEL: | E4 E5 D8 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1327 |
| By: | Kenichi Ueda (University of Tokyo); Chanthol Hay (National University of Battambang) |
| Abstract: | Cambodia is one of the two first countries that adopted a retail CBDC in October 2020. The design of the CBDC, called the Bakong, is a bit unique. We find a few design flaws that could potentially damage the central bank and then the Cambodian economy as a whole. We show some key statistics from our own survey in 2022 to clarify our arguments. The Bakong is offered in two currencies, the Khmer Riel (KHR) and the US dollar (USD), as Cambodia has been highly dollarized. We discuss theoretical predictions for the CBDC based on three kinds of substitutes: paper money, bank deposits, and foreign currencies. The third one is specific to the Bakong. Unlike a typical local currency CBDC, the USD Bakong may substitute for the KHR more. Moreover, it has been announced that the retail Bakong is legally not a liability of the central bank, but from the viewpoint of the underlying technology and economics, it is a central bank liability. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf579 |
| By: | Jaeho Choi; Jaewon Kim; Seyoung Chung; Chae-shick Chung; Yoonsoo Lee |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements and financial market network structure through spectral graph theory. Using hypergraph networks constructed from S\&P 100 stocks around FOMC announcement dates (2011--2024), we employ the Fiedler value -- the second eigenvalue of the hypergraph Laplacian -- to measure changes in market connectivity and systemic stability. Our event study methodology reveals that FOMC announcements significantly alter network structure across multiple time horizons. Analysis of policy tone, classified using natural language processing, reveals heterogeneous effects: hawkish announcements induce network fragmentation at short horizons ($k=6$) followed by reconsolidation at medium horizons ($k=14$), while neutral statements show limited immediate impact but exhibit delayed fragmentation. These findings suggest that monetary policy communication affects market architecture through a network structural transmission, with effects varying by announcement timing and policy stance. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.02705 |
| By: | José Fique; Xisong Jin |
| Abstract: | We develop a structural framework for system-wide financial stress testing with multiple interacting contagion and amplification effects acting through a dual channel of liquidity and solvency risk. The framework allows us to identify vulnerabilities arising from the increasingly intricate and complex financial system of banks and investment funds in Luxembourg. Based on exogenous shocks stemming from hypothetical adverse scenarios, several important findings are documented for banks and three types of investment funds (Bond Funds, Equity Funds and Mixed Funds) during 2020-2023. First, the simulated shocks have significant first-round and higher-order effects on investment funds, in particular on Equity Funds. Moreover, Bond Funds display a stronger amplification factor than other types of investment funds. Second, the impact on Luxembourg banks is substantially muted. The overall bank capital depletion, measured by the total risk exposure amount, is low even in view of the tail risk metrics, which reflects the strong resilience of the Luxembourg banking sector as a whole. Third, for both investment funds and banks, their vulnerabilities still reflect the procyclicality of the financial system. Overall, the joint modelling of banks and non-banks delivers clear benefits to the analytical capabilities of central banks and informs policymakers in developing the non-bank macroprudential toolkit of the future. |
| Keywords: | Financial stability, systemic risk, macro-prudential policy, fire sales, banking business model, stress testing, ; liquidity, macro-financial linkages. |
| JEL: | D85 G01 G21 G23 L14 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp199 |
| By: | Luca Benati, Juan-Pablo Nicolini |
| Abstract: | Modern analysis of the welfare effects of monetary policy is based on moneyless models and therefore ignores the effect of inflation on the efficiency of transactions. A justification for this strategy is that these welfare effects are quantitatively very small, as argued by Ireland (2009). We revisit Ireland’s result using recent data for the United States and several other developed countries. Our computations are influenced by the experience of very low short-term rates observed since Ireland’s work in the countries we study. We estimate the welfare cost of a steady state nominal interest rate of 5% to be at least one order of magnitude higher than in Ireland (2009), which questions the validity of performing monetary policy evaluation in cashless models. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp2508 |
| By: | Falk Bräuning; Joanna Stavins |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy impacts consumer spending via the effect of interest rate changes on credit card borrowing. Using supervisory account-level spending and balance data, we estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in the interest rate reduces credit card spending by nearly 9 percent and revolving balances by close to 4 percent. Aggregate results are primarily driven by revolving accounts, while we estimate small and statistically insignificant interest-rate elasticity for transaction accounts. Consistent with financial constraints, low-credit-score accounts tend to adjust spending, while high-credit-score accounts adjust balances. |
| Keywords: | credit cards; interest rates; consumer spending |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E43 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:101889 |
| By: | Martin Farias (OECD); Javier Suarez (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | We examine the interaction between banks and money market funds (MMFs) in a setup where the latter can experience large redemptions following an aggregate liquidity shock (as in March 2020). In the model MMFs and bank deposits are alternatives for firms’management of their cash holdings. MMFs experiencing correlated redemptions get forced to sell assets to banks in narrow markets, producing asset price declines. Ex post the price declines damage firms’ capacity to cover their needs with the redeemed shares. Ex ante the prospect of such an effect reduces the attractiveness of MMFs relative to bank deposits. Yet the equilibrium allocation of firms’ savings exhibits an excessive reliance on MMFs since firms fail to internalize their effect on the size of the pecuniary externalities caused by future redemptions. This provides a rationale, distinct from first mover advantages, for the macroprudential regulation of the investment in MMFs. |
| Keywords: | Liquidity management; liquidity risk; pecuniary externalities; money markets. |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2508 |
| By: | Población García, Francisco Javier; Suárez, Nuria |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effects of capital and liquidity on bank stability as well as the existence of a potential complementary or substitute relationship between both dimensions to explain bank stability. We use a sample of 16, 061 banks from 27 countries during the period 2013-2023. Our results show that both capital and liquidity increase bank stability. However, the joint interactive effect presents a negative coefficient indicating the existence of a potential substitution effect between both variables. We also provide evidence on market power acting as a potential mechanism explaining the baseline relationships. Furthermore, the results seem to be modulated by specific bank- and country-level factors. JEL Classification: G20, G21, G28, K00 |
| Keywords: | bank-level characteristics, bank stability, capital, country-level characteristics, liquidity |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253134 |
| By: | Pablo Garcia (BANQUE CENTRALE DU LUXEMBOURG); Pascal Jacquinot (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Crt Lenarcic (BANKA SLOVENIJE); Kostas Mavromatis (DE NEDERLANDSCHE BANK); Niki Papadopoulou (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Edgar Silgado-Gómez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | We explore the macroeconomic effects of climate policies promoting the green energy transition in the euro area using an extended version of the Euro Area and Global Economy (EAGLE) model. The model differentiates between brown and green energy sectors and incorporates carbon taxes and brown capital income taxes. We analyze scenarios with unilateral and globally coordinated carbon taxes, with and without revenue redistribution to green firms and financially constrained households. Carbon taxes act as negative supply shocks, raising inflation and lowering output, while subsidies to green energy firms reduce green energy prices, supporting the transition and easing recessions. Redistribution to constrained households boosts consumption but does not accelerate the green transition. Taxes on brown capital income lower both inflation and output by acting as demand shocks. Recycling revenue from this tax to subsidize green capital investment strengthens the shift to green energy and moderates economic contractions. Global coordination of carbon taxes delivers only modest additional macroeconomic effects compared with unilateral action, as substitution in energy use outweighs international spillovers. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of these findings under alternative assumptions about price rigidity, substitution elasticities and monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, carbon taxation, fiscal policy, monetary policy, euro area, DSGE modeling |
| JEL: | C53 E32 E52 F45 H30 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2537 |
| By: | Romain Bouis; Sumaiyah R Mirza; Erlend Nier |
| Abstract: | This paper examines empirically how the effect of interest rates on the three components of bank profits – loan loss provisions, net interest margin, and non-interest income – varies depending on bank characteristics and the macroprudential policy environment. A new finding is that higher interest rates lead to larger loan loss provisions for banks offering flexible-rate loans, but that this effect is attenuated when macroprudential borrower-based measures have been tight in preceding years. Tighter macroprudential settings also reduce the effect of higher unemployment on loan loss provisions recorded by banks, and thereby the negative impact of unemployment on profitability. Moreover, we find significant heterogeneity across banks: banks with strong risk appetite that extend loans at flexible rates are adversely affected by higher interest rates, as the effect on loan losses dominates the effect on the interest margin, while the profitability of other banks benefits on average from higher interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Interest rate; bank profitability; net interest margin; loan loss provisions; macroprudential policy |
| Date: | 2025–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/196 |
| By: | Byeungchun Kwon; Taejin Park; Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul; Frank Smets |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic indicators provide quantitative signals that must be pieced together and interpreted by economists. We propose a reversed approach of parsing press narratives directly using Large Language Models (LLM) to recover growth and inflation sentiment indices. A key advantage of this LLM-based approach is the ability to decompose aggregate sentiment into its drivers, readily enabling an interpretation of macroeconomic dynamics. Our sentiment indices track hard-data counterparts closely, providing an accurate, near real-time picture of the macroeconomy. Their components–demand, supply, and deeper structural forces–are intuitive and consistent with prior model-based studies. Incorporating sentiment indices improves the forecasting performance of simple statistical models, pointing to information unspanned by traditional data. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic sentiment, growth, inflation, monetary policy, fiscal policy, LLMs, machine learning |
| JEL: | E30 E44 E60 C55 C82 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1294 |
| By: | Beschin, Anna; Paredes, Joan; Polichetti, Gaetano; Renault, Théodore |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the literature on the price Phillips curve by exploiting subnational regional data from 11 euro area countries. Beyond controlling for aggregate fluctuations common across euro area regions, our approach accounts for country-specific dynamics, including national inflation expectations, thereby addressing key limitations in previous studies. Our results suggest that the Phillips curve in the euro area is relatively flat, but statistically significant. Furthermore, we provide novel evidence on potential nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve and highlight the critical role of properly accounting for country-specific factors such as inflation expectations. These findings provide new insights for the conduct of monetary policy and underscore the value of regional data in euro area macroeconomic analysis. JEL Classification: E24, E30, E31 |
| Keywords: | heterogeneity, non-linearity, price Phillips curve, regional data |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253133 |
| By: | Zhengyang Jiang; Hanno Lustig; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; Mindy Z. Xiaolan |
| Abstract: | In a monetary union, the risk-free rate cannot adjust to country-level fiscal positions, leaving only default spreads and convenience yields to respond. Empirically, we find that convenience yields explain a large share of the variation in Eurozone sovereign bond yields. Eurozone sovereign bonds earn larger convenience yields when their governments run larger surpluses. Since convenience yields generate substantial seigniorage revenue from debt issuance, our estimates imply economically large fiscal costs from low convenience yields for peripheral countries in the Eurozone. |
| JEL: | E42 F33 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34307 |
| By: | Wagner Piazza Gaglianone; Gustavo Silva Araujo; José Valentim Machado Vicente |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the Brazilian yield curve has responded to macroeconomic fundamentals over the past two decades. Using a set of OLS regressions applied to short- and long-term interest rates, as well as the yield curve slope, we examine the roles of domestic inflation, fiscal stance, economic activity, and external interest rates. Our findings show that domestic inflation and economic activity, together with U.S. yields, exhibit consistent significance across maturities. Fiscal indicators based on primary surplus, rather than public debt, exert a clear effect on short-term rates and the slope, underscoring the relevance of fiscal flows over fiscal levels. Robustness exercises incorporating financial conditions, credit indicators, and the monetary policy stance confirm that short-term rates are especially responsive to financial signals and regime changes, whereas long-term rates are more strongly influenced by external conditions, credit dynamics, and a persistent monetary stance. The analysis is further extended to real interest rates, confirming the robustness of the main results and highlighting the enduring influence of fiscal flows and credit dynamics on the slope and long-term rates. These findings show the importance of credible fiscal and monetary frameworks and provide new evidence on how emerging market yield curves reflect domestic and external fundamentals. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:629 |
| By: | Okan Akarsu; Huzeyfe Torun |
| Abstract: | [EN] This study investigates how firms' inflation expectations evolve during both inflationary and disinflationary periods, using data from the Business Tendency Survey (BTS), and analyzes the relationship between firms' cost- and price-related expectations and their inflation forecasts. By matching firms based on their fundamental characteristics, and then employing probit models alongside propensity score matching, we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) to assess changes in expectations as quasi-randomized treatments. Our results indicate a significant dispersion in inflation expectations during periods of rising inflation. However, as inflation stabilizes, firms' expectations begin to converge, signaling reduced uncertainty and closer alignment with central bank targets. This study adds to the literature by providing empirical evidence from an emerging market economy, offering valuable insights into how firm-level inflation expectations shift across different inflation phases and highlighting the role of monetary policy in anchoring these expectations. [TR] Bu calisma, Iktisadi Egilim Anketi (IYA) verilerini kullanarak firmalarin enflasyon beklentilerinin hem enflasyonist hem de dezenflasyonist donemlerde nasil degistigini Iktisadi Egilim Anketi (IYA) verilerini kullanarak incelenmekte ve firmalarin maliyet ve fiyatla ilgili beklentileri ile enflasyon tahminleri arasindaki iliskiyi analiz etmektedir. Firmalari temel ozelliklerine gore eslestirip, ardindan egilim puani eslestirme) yontemi ve probit modeller kullanilarak, beklentilerdeki degisiklikleri yari-rastgele tedaviler olarak degerlendirmek icin tedavi grubu uzerindeki ortalama etki tahmin edilmektedir. Bulgularimiz, enflasyonun yukseldigi donemlerde firmalarin enflasyon beklentilerinde onemli bir dagilim oldugunu gostermektedir. Ancak, enflasyon istikrar kazandikca, firmalarin beklentileri yakinsamaya baslamakta; bu da belirsizligin azaldigini ve beklentilerin merkez bankasi hedeflerine daha yakin hale geldigine isaret etmektedir. Bu calisma, gelismekte olan bir ulkeden elde edilen ampirik bulgularla mevcut literature katki saglamakta; firmalarin enflasyon beklentilerinin enflasyonun farkli evrelerinde nasil degistigine dair degerli bilgiler sunmakta ve bu beklentilerin cipalanmasinda para politikasinin rolunu vurgulamaktadir. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2519 |
| By: | Demis Legrenzi (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Department of Economics and Management, Università degli Studi di Brescia); Emanuele Ciola (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Department of Economics and Management, Università degli Studi di Brescia); Davide Bazzana (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Department of Economics and Management, Università degli Studi di Brescia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macro-financial effects of alternative adaptation strategies in response to exogenous shocks in labor productivity caused by climate change. Using a Stock-Flow-Consistent Agent-Based model calibrated to U.S. data, we analyze two main scenarios: (i) a change in the conduct of monetary policy to account for climate-related damages, and (ii) a firm-level adaptation strategy that internalizes expected climate losses. We evaluate both scenarios under the assumption of either homogeneous or heterogeneous climate shocks. Our results indicate that both strategies can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on output and wealth distribution. However, their performance is significantly worse in the presence of heterogeneous climate shocks, which also lead to a persistent increase in firms’ leverage. Moreover, while firm-level adaptation relies primarily on internal resources, monetary policy adjustments increase firms’ dependence on external debt financing, underscoring the need for closer monitoring of financial stability in such circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Integrated assessment model, Agent-based model, Financial stability, Climate change adaptation, Climate-aware monetary policy |
| JEL: | C63 E50 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.18 |
| By: | Hung Q. Tran |
| Abstract: | Amidst intense geopolitical competition, efforts to develop tokenized monetary units—tradable on programmable platforms such as blockchains—have added a new dimension to the debate about the role of a global payment and reserve currency. Tokenized monetary units are expected to greatly improve the efficiency of payment transactions in terms of their speed and cost, especially cross-border transactions. They could also meet emerging demand for technologically enabled features such as smart contracts, which can be embedded in monetary tokens. The country that can promote and develop tokenization based on its fiat money—the United States, for example—would enjoy first-mover advantages, being able to attract users to its tokenized platforms, and helping to strengthen the role of its currency in global payments and finance in the digital age. Alternatively, if several major countries could compete by developing tokenized money, the shift to a multi-currency reserve system would be accelerated. |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:p44_25 |