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on Central Banking |
| By: | Lukas Hack; Klodiana Istrefi; Matthias Meier |
| Abstract: | Conventional strategies to identify monetary policy shocks rest on the implicit assumption that systematic monetary policy is constant over time. We formally show that these strategies do not isolate monetary policy shocks in an environment with time-varying systematic monetary policy. Instead, they are contaminated by systematic monetary policy and macroeconomic variables, leading to contamination bias in estimated impulse responses. Empirically, we show that Romer and Romer (2004) monetary policy shocks are indeed predictable by fluctuations in systematic monetary policy. Instead, we propose a new monetary policy shock that is orthogonal to systematic monetary policy. Our shock suggests U.S. monetary policy has shorter lags and stronger effects on inflation and output. |
| Keywords: | Systematic monetary policy, monetary policy shocks, identification |
| JEL: | E32 E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_557&r= |
| By: | Gökhan Ider; Alexander Kriwoluzky; Frederik Kurcz; Ben Schumann |
| Abstract: | This paper first shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the European Central Bank (ECB) can influence global energy prices. Second, through Lucas critique-robust counterfactual analysis, we uncover that the ECB’s ability to affect fast-moving energy prices plays an important role in the transmission of monetary policy. Third, we empirically document that, to optimally fulfill its primary mandate, the ECB should swiftly tighten policy in response to an increase in energy prices. Crucially, the tightening required depends on the ECB’s ability to influence global energy prices. Finally, we find this policy strategy could have largely prevented the post-pandemic inflation episode. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, energy prices, monetary policy transmission mechanism |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E52 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2089&r= |
| By: | Bilbiie, F. O. |
| Abstract: | THANK is a tractable heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model that captures analytically core micro heterogeneity channels of quantitative-HANK: cyclical inequality and risk; self-insurance, pre-cautionary saving, and realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. I use it to elucidate key transmission mechanisms and dynamic properties of HANK models. Countercyclical inequality yields aggregate-demand amplification and makes determinacy with Taylor rules more stringent; but solving the forward guidance puzzle requires procyclical inequality: a Catch-22. Solutions include combining inequality with a distinct risk channel, with compensating cyclicalities; I provide evidence that disposable income inequality was procyclical in the last two, Great and COVID recessions, while risk is countercyclical. Alternative policy rules also solve the Catch-22, e.g. price-level-targeting or, in the model version with liquidity, setting nominal public debt. Optimal policy with heterogeneity features a novel inequality-stabilization motive generating higher inflation volatility—but is unaffected by risk, insofar as the target efficient equilibrium entails no inequality. |
| Keywords: | Determinacy, Forward Guidance Puzzle, Heterogeneity, Inequality, Interest Rate Rules, Liquidity, Multipliers, Optimal Monetary Policy, Risk |
| JEL: | E21 E31 E40 E44 E50 E52 E58 E60 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2432&r= |
| By: | D.M. Nachane (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | During episodes of severe depression, interest rates can approach the zero lower bound (ZLB) and stay there for a fairly long time. Mainstream macroeconomic theory (the so-called New Consensus Economics) then fails to provide adequate guidance under a Taylor type rule to conventional monetary policy. Various alternatives have been suggested to revitalize monetary policy in such a situation. The major alternatives can be divided into three categories viz. (i) those that do not recognize the ZLB as an effective floor (ii) those based on the Keynesian liquidity trap and (iii) those based (implicitly) on Hawtrey's credit deadlock. We discuss these alternatives with a special focus on QE (Quantitative Easing). In particular, we draw attention to the largely ignored fact that QE had been suggested by the British economist Hawtrey at least as early as 1931 in the policy debates on ways to emerge from the Great Depression. |
| Keywords: | Zero lower bound, Price-gap target, Currency depreciation, Forward guidance, Quantitative easing, Liquidity trap, Credit deadlock |
| JEL: | E4 E5 N1 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2024-005&r= |
| By: | Giovanardi, Francesco; Kaldorf, Matthias |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a quantitative multi-sector DSGE model with bank failure and firm default to study the interactions between bank regulation and climate policy. Households value the liquidity of deposits, which are protected by deposit insurance. Banks collect deposits and issue equity to extend defaultable loans to clean and fossil energy firms. Bank capital regulation affects liquidity provision to households, bank risk-taking, and loan supply across sectors. Using a calibrated version of the model, we obtain four results: first, fossil penalizing capital requirements can be discarded as climate policy instrument, since their effect on sector-specific investment is quantitatively negligible in general equilibrium. Second, Ramsey-optimal capital requirements in response to a tax-induced clean transition decline to counteract negative loan demand effects. Third, differentiated capital requirements are only necessary if banks are not perfectly diversified across sectors. Fourth, nominal rigidities induce a temporary tightening of capital requirements if the transition is inflationary and, thus, spurs a boom on the loan market. |
| Keywords: | Bank Regulation, Liquidity Provision, Risk-Taking, ClimatePolicy, Clean Transition, Multi-Sector Model |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G28 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:298857&r= |
| By: | Arndt, Sarah |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I investigate how inflation signals from different types of newspapers influence household inflation expectations in Germany. Using text data and the large language model GPT-3.5-turbo-1106, I construct newspaper-specific indicators and find significant heterogeneity in their informativeness based on the genre—tabloid versus reputable sources. The tabloid’s indicator is more effective for predicting perceived inflation among low-income and lower-education households, while reputable newspapers better predict higher-income and more educated households’ expectations. Local projections reveal that tabloid sentiment shows an immediate decrease following a monetary policy shock, whereas responses from reputable newspapers are smaller and delayed. Household expectations also vary depending on the type of newspaper affected by the sentiment shock and the socioeconomic background of the household. These findings underscore the differentiated impact of media on inflation expectations across various segments of society, providing valuable insights for policymakers to tailor communication strategies effectively. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations; text mining; forecasting; monetary policy; LLM; ChatGPT |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awi:wpaper:0748&r= |
| By: | Hilpert, Hanns Günther |
| Abstract: | In China, money, currency and payment transactions are manifestations of state sovereignty and political power. The primary objective of Chinese monetary policy is to maintain domestic stability, expand the scope of its own influence internationally, and reshape the global financial and monetary system to make it more compatible with the structures of the Chinese one-party state. China is pursuing the internationalisation of the renminbi on several tracks in small persistent steps and with a long-term perspective, but it has so far shied away from the decisive transition to convertibility. For the time being, the renminbi does not play a significant role on the global financial and currency markets. However, it is gaining ground as a trading, credit and reserve currency in Asia and the Global South. China is a pioneer in the development and introduction of digital central bank money. It is striving to play a leading role in the digitalisation of international payment transactions. Prospectively, the technology and infrastructure developed in China and the standards set for cross-border payments using blockchain and real-time transactions could replace the current international banking and clearing system in a cost-effective manner. The Chinese leadership believes that digital central bank money offers great potential: In terms of domestic policy, it creates further opportunities for surveillance and repression. Internationally, it would become easier for China and third countries to circumvent Western financial sanctions. In response to China's currency campaign, the European Union and the European Central Bank should step up their own efforts to internationalise and digitise the euro. Europe should avoid dependence on China when it comes to the future critical infrastructure of an interoperable system for international payments with digital central bank money. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:298842&r= |
| By: | Tony Chernis; Gary Koop; Emily Tallman; Mike West |
| Abstract: | The macroeconomy is a sophisticated dynamic system involving significant uncertainties that complicate modelling. In response, decision makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations which are then synthesized into a policy decision. In this setting, we introduce and develop Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) to formalize monetary policy decision processes. BPDS draws on recent developments in model combination and statistical decision theory that yield new opportunities in combining multiple models, emphasizing the integration of decision goals, expectations and outcomes into the model synthesis process. Our case study concerns central bank policy decisions about target interest rates with a focus on implications for multi-step macroeconomic forecasting. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2406.03321&r= |
| By: | Osoro, Jared; Cheruiyot, Kiplangat Josea |
| Abstract: | Persistence of profitability in the Kenyan banking industry masks the limited understanding of the adjustment process of the profit seeking behavior during economic shocks. Whether the adjustment is in response to the adverse outcomes of the shocks, or the inevitable macroeconomic policy response is an open question. This paper seeks to assess the implication of fiscal-monetary interactions on banks' profitability. We deploy both static and dynamic panel models to estimate the influence of the macro policies using bank-level as well as macroeconomic data in Kenya for the period 2003 - 2022. We establish that both monetary policy and fiscal policy matter for bank profitability, their influence revealing the attribute of interconnectivity between the two policies. The banks' profitability is positively influenced by an expansionary fiscal policy, with a similar influence associated with a tightening monetary policy. We contend that for a given set of bankspecific attributes, if monetary and fiscal policies are prominent influencers of profitability, it signals that the banks' reaction function as profit seekers is more a response to policy adjustment to shocks than the underlying economic outcomes. The key inference based on the assessment is that banks' profit seeking attribute while riding on an expansionary fiscal policy and a tightening monetary policy entails risk taking behavior that can potentially push the economy to the boundary of the "region of stability". That puts the spotlight on the attitude of the banks' regulator and that of banks towards profitability and risk-taking and calls for two policy considerations. One is the need for a robust stresstesting framework that takes into account capital adequacy and asset quality optimal thresholds whose breaching we determine to be a possible triggers of market jitters. Two is the necessity of a stable market-based funding mechanism supported by the regulator's liquidity window and complemented by a conservative dividend policy even as profitability may persists. The two policy considerations will potentially obviate a situation where there is a realization that elusive boundaries of "the region of stability" have been breached ex post and the banking system is stable until suddenly it is not. |
| Keywords: | Bank profitability, dynamic panel threshold model, fiscal policy and monetary policy interaction |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kbawps:297985&r= |
| By: | Nie, George Y. (Concordia University) |
| Abstract: | This study argues that a future payment’s risk approaches zero as maturity approaches zero. We employ two factors to model the risk-free rate (which is captured by the central bank’s short-term interest rate) that the market expects the current monetary policy to move towards the neutral level over a certain period. Our 3-factor final model thus splits recent US and Canada T-bill yields into the risk and risk-free rate, explaining 97% of the yields, providing a gateway to bond risk. |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2dazg&r= |
| By: | Talam, Camilla; Kiemo, Samuel |
| Abstract: | The study sought to examine the effect interest rate risks on banking sector stability through disentangling the effect of interest rate risk on both fiscal and banking sector stability conditions in Kenya. We applied annual macroeconomic and bank-level data for the period 2001 - 2022 across 37 banks. The study also developed a banking sector stability index to examine evolution of banking sector stability , undertook sensitivity analysis on interest rate sensitive assets k and applied panel fixed effects model to examine the effect of interest rate and fiscal policy risks on banking sector stability . The study found that overall, the banking sector has remained resilient over the study periods, despite experiencing some periods of financial instability. The study also found monetary policy stance has implications on fiscal and banking sector stability whereby contractionary monetary policy raises fiscal and banking sector stability risks when public debt is elevated due to a tight sovereign-bank nexus. Increases in interest rate and credit risks were found to lower banking sector stability while bank capital accumulation strengthened banking sector stability . A high sovereign-bank nexus increases banking sector stability through repricing risks reflected via interest rate and liquidity risks. On other hand banks' portfolio diversification and trading strategies help to mitigate and lower repricing risks from market and interest rate changes. The paper proposes tracking of sovereign-bank nexus overtime to cover multiple business cycles to enhance understanding of sovereign-bank nexus dynamics towards coordinating monetary, fiscal and macroprudential policies. |
| Keywords: | Banking sector stability, Fiscal Risks, Monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kbawps:297989&r= |
| By: | J. David López-Salido; Emily J. Markowitz; Edward Nelson |
| Abstract: | By examining statements made by the Federal Reserve leadership since the early 1950s, we establish that there has been considerable continuity in policymakers’ perceptions of the benefits of price stability. Policymakers have consistently contended that deviations from price stability give rise to greater cyclical instability, and they have also frequently suggested that potential output is significantly lowered by inflation. The recurrent support for price stability that comes through in these statements implies that it is invalid to take periods in the U.S. record of deviations from price stability as indicating a policymaker belief in the desirability of inflation. |
| Keywords: | Dual mandate; Federal Reserve; Price stability; Costs of inflation; Phillips curve; Superneutrality; Monetary policy objectives |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–06–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-41&r= |
| By: | Miguel Acosta; Connor M. Brennan; Margaret M. Jacobson |
| Abstract: | Eurodollar futures were the bedrock for constructing high-frequency series of monetary policy surprises, so their discontinuation poses a challenge for the continued empirical study of monetary policy. We propose an approach for updating the series of Gurkaynak et al. (2005) and Nakamura and Steinsson (2018) with SOFR futures in place of Eurodollar futures that is conceptually and materially consistent. We recommend using SOFR futures from January 2022 onward based on regulatory developments and trading volumes. The updatedseries suggest that surprises over the recent tightening cycle are larger in magnitude than those seen over the decade prior and restrictive on average. |
| Keywords: | Monetary surprises; Causal estimates of monetary policy; High-frequency identification |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2024–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-34&r= |
| By: | Behn, Markus; Cornacchia, Wanda; Forletta, Marco; Jarmulska, Barbara; Perales, Cristian; Ryan, Ellen; Serra, Diogo; Tereanu, Eugen; Tumino, Marcello; Abreu, Daniel; Ciampi, Francesco; Ciocchetta, Federica; Drenkovska, Marija; Fritz, Benedikt; Geiger, Sebastian; Melnychuk, Mariya; Meusel, Steffen; Reginster, Alexandre; Rychtárik, Štefan; Vilka, Ilze; Virel, Fleurilys |
| Abstract: | The 2019 revision to the Capital Requirements Directive allowed the systemic risk buffer to be applied on a sectoral basis in the European Union. Since then an increasing number of countries have implemented the new tool, primarily to address vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector. To inform and foster a consistent understanding and application of the buffer, this paper proposes two specific methodologies. First, an indicator-based approach which provides an aggregate measure of cyclical vulnerabilities in the residential real estate sector and can signal a potential need to activate a sectoral buffer to address them. Second, a model-based approach following a stress test rationale simulating mortgage loan losses under adverse conditions, which can be used as a starting point for calibrating a sectoral buffer. Besides these methodological contributions, the paper conceptually discusses the interaction between the sectoral buffer and other prudential requirements and instruments, ex ante and ex post policy impact assessment, and factors guiding the possible release of the buffer. Finally, the paper considers possible future applications of sectoral buffer requirements for other types of sectoral vulnerabilities, for example in relation to commercial real estate, exposures to non-financial corporations or climate-related risks. JEL Classification: G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | banks, capital buffers, financial stability, macroprudential policy |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024352&r= |
| By: | Lidiema, Caspah |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies with a view to establishing the existence of fiscal dominance in Kenya. The study employed monthly data for the period Jan 2010 - Dec 2022. Using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Model, the study captured price dynamics through the three channels of foreign exchange, inflation and lending rates. All data was obtained from the Central Bank of Kenya online repositories. The empirical assessment of this paper leads to three broad insightful conclusions. First, from policy front, monetary policy is not fully effective in controlling and stabilizing prices especially inflation; two, expansionary fiscal policy is not only inflationary but leads to higher interests' rates as well and three: there exists traces of fiscal dominance even though it does not appear to very high form of fiscal dominance (which this study calls the slow intrusion of fiscal policy into the monetary policy space). The study therefore concludes that while fiscal dominance may not be very pronounced, there is need to review the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies to fully gain from the interdependence of the two policies by stabilizing prices and enhancing growth as expected and avoid macro-economic instability that comes with fiscal dominance. The paper recommends reducing government borrowing especially domestic borrowing, cutting unnecessary spending, directing spending towards development projects like infrastructure or social-economic projects and sectors that support or influence growth; establish the necessity of currency pegging to avoid unpleasant multiplier effect of fiscal dominance, review the emergence and effects of dollarization in Kenya and lastly review of fiscal policy and establish if there is a need for a Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC). |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, Fiscal dominance, inflation, interest rates, interest rates, dollarization, SVAR |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kbawps:297992&r= |
| By: | Kimani, Stephanie |
| Abstract: | Effective policies to stabilize macroeconomic conditions are essential for economic growth. In the context of this study, policymakers pursue these macroeconomic stability objectives by adjusting fiscal and monetary policy. The study used impulse response functions (IRFs) derived from vector autoregressive (VAR) models to analyze how these policy changes affected credit allocation. Results show that monetary policy changes through CRR and CBR manipulation have a longer lasting impact on private sector credit compared to fiscal policy changes. Due to its direct impact on bank liquidity, CRR changes impact private sector credit more directly compared to variations in CBR. This implies that when macroeconomic stabilization is urgent, adjusting the CRR to influence private sector credit would be more useful. Meanwhile, fiscal policy, as illustrated through total government spending and revenues, tends to impact the quantum of private sector credit instantaneously. However, the impact is short-lived given the evolving nature of the sovereign's wallet. Further, the results show that prudent fiscal consolidation (raising government revenues or reducing government spending or a combination of both) support lending to the private sector. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kbawps:297991&r= |
| By: | Stefano Gnocchi; Fanny McKellips; Rodrigo Sekkel; Laure Simon; Yinxi Xie; Yang Zhang |
| Abstract: | We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We start by briefly revisiting the determinants of the New Keynesian Phillips curve. Next, we provide an overview of the Phillips curves that are currently embedded in the two main policy models the Bank uses for macroeconomic projections and analysis, known for short as ToTEM and LENS. We then discuss the challenges in identifying the trade-off between output and inflation and provide new estimates of the trade-off using recently proposed methods. Finally, we contrast these estimates with the ones in the Bank’s policy models. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods; Inflation and prices; Monetary policy transmission |
| JEL: | E3 E31 E5 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:24-07&r= |
| By: | Masuda, Kazuto (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the quantity theory of money into the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect model. Our policy rule specifies the impossibility of perfect exchange rate stability with monetary policy, as Friedman (1953) suggests. We discover the importance of inflation to technological progress, while the rent-seeking behaviors in firms foster their productivity slowdowns and disinflations. Their forward-looking behaviors, like animal spirit (Keynes, 1936/1997), control outputs under the marginal productivity hypothesis with the Cobb-Douglus production function. Baumol’s (1959) sales revenue maximization hypothesis explains full employment and deflations but breaks the marginal productivity hypothesis. We briefly argue the downward stickiness of nominal wages (incomes). |
| Date: | 2024–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:nxshd&r= |
| By: | Siema Hashemi (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of supervisory resolution tools, specifically bail-ins versus bailouts, on the ex-ante banks’ portfolio composition and resulting ex-post default probabilities in the presence of both idiosyncratic and systematic shocks. Banks make decisions regarding short-term versus long-term risky investments while considering the expected resolution policy. I find that both types of shocks can generate financial instability, which the two resolution tools address through distinct channels. With only idiosyncratic shocks, creditor bailouts, acting as debt insurance, eliminate the equilibrium with bank defaults, while bail-ins induce banks to invest less in the risky short-term asset, which may also prevent defaults. In the presence of both shocks, creditor bailouts can prevent systemic defaults, while bail-ins are less effective in preventing them and could even contribute to systemic risk. |
| Keywords: | Bailouts, bail-ins, bank resolution, systemic risk, bank portfolio allocation, fire sales. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G33 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2024_2410&r= |
| By: | Christian Moser; Farzad Saidi; Benjamin Wirth; Stefanie Wolter |
| Abstract: | We study the distributional consequences of monetary policy-induced credit supply in the German labor market. Firms in relationships with banks that are more exposed to the introduction of negative interest rates in 2014 experience a relative contraction in credit supply, associated with lower average wages and employment. Within firms, initially lower-paid workers are more likely to leave employment, while initially higher-paid workers see a relative decline in wages. Between firms, wages fall by more at initially higher-paying employers. Our results suggest that credit affects the distribution of pay and employment both within and between firms. |
| Keywords: | Wages, Employment, Worker and Firm Heterogeneity, Credit Supply, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | J31 E24 J23 E51 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_558&r= |
| By: | Schmitz, Martin; Dietrich, Andreas; Brisson, Rémy |
| Abstract: | The nominal effective exchange rate (EER) of a currency is an index of the trade-weighted average of its bilateral exchange rates vis-à-vis the currencies of selected trading partners, while the real EER is derived by adjusting the nominal index for relative prices or costs. The nominal EER provides a summary measure of a currency’s external value, while the real EER is the most commonly used indicator of the international price and cost competitiveness of an economy. Additionally, for all individual euro area countries, harmonised competitiveness indicators (HCIs) are published by the European Central Bank (ECB) based on the same methodology as the euro EERs. This paper describes how the calculation of the ECB’s EERs and HCIs has been enhanced to take into account in the underlying trade weights the evolution of international trade linkages and, in particular, the growing importance of trade in services. The paper includes an in-depth description of the methodology used to calculate these enhanced EERs and HCIs. In particular, it presents how to overcome the challenges arising from the inclusion of services trade, foremost in terms of data availability, with imputation and estimation techniques. Importantly, the ECB’s well-established methodology – which in particular accounts for competition faced by euro area exporters in third markets – did not have to be changed with the inclusion of services trade. Finally, the paper provides some evidence on the usefulness of the enhanced indicators for policymakers, economic analysts and the public at large. JEL Classification: C82, F10, F17, F30, F31, F40 |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, effective exchange rate (EER), gravity model, harmonised competitiveness indicator (HCI), nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), real effective exchange rate (REER), services trade, trade weights |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbsps:202449&r= |