nep-cba New Economics Papers
on Central Banking
Issue of 2024‒07‒15
24 papers chosen by
Sergey E. Pekarski, Higher School of Economics


  1. Reading between the lines: Uncovering asymmetry in the central bank loss function By Haavio, Markus; Heikkinen, Joni; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Kilponen, Juha; Paloviita, Maritta; Vänni, Ilona
  2. Assessing the Impact of the Bank of Canada's Government Bond Purchases By Chinara Azizova; Jonathan Witmer; Xu Zhang
  3. Monetary Policy and Heterogeneity: An Analytical Framework By Bilbiie, F. O.
  4. Central Bank Liquidity Policy in Modern Times By Skylar Brooks
  5. Stabilization vs. Redistribution: The Optimal Monetary-Fiscal Mix By Bilbiie, F. O.; Monacelli, T.; Perotti, R.
  6. Monetary Policy and the Homeownership Rate By James Graham; Avish Sharma
  7. HANK beyond FIRE: Amplification, forward guidance, and belief shocks By José-Elías Gallegos
  8. The asymmetric and persistent effects of Fed policy on global bond yields By Tobias Adrian; Gaston Gelos; Nora Lamersdorf; Emanuel Moench
  9. Mixing it up: Inflation at risk By Maximilian Schr\"oder
  10. Estimating Regime Dependent Fiscal Spillover Effects in a Monetary Union By Vanessa Kunzmann
  11. Policy Multipliers in Japan Under QQE By Mr. Sam Ouliaris; Ms. Celine Rochon
  12. Transmission Channel Analysis in Dynamic Models By Enrico Wegner; Lenard Lieb; Stephan Smeekes; Ines Wilms
  13. The puzzle of Carbon Allowance spread By Michele Azzone; Roberto Baviera; Pietro Manzoni
  14. European banks and Fed liquidity facilities during the Global Financial Crisis: Good news for the bad and bad news for the good By Hervé Alexandre; Catherine Refait-Alexandre; Larry D. Wall
  15. The sacrifice ratio and active fiscal policy By Christopher G. Gibbs; Herbert W. Xin
  16. Rapid Bank Runs and Delayed Policy Responses By Ryuichiro Izumi; Yang LI
  17. The Concave Phillips Curve By Narayana R. Kocherlakota
  18. The Exchange Rate as an Industrial Policy By Pablo Ottonello; Diego J. Perez; William Witheridge
  19. Active or Passive? Revisiting the Role of Fiscal Policy During High Inflation By Stephanie Ettmeier; Alexander Kriwoluzky
  20. Pricing Under Distress By S. Borağan Aruoba; Andrés Fernández; Daniel Guzmán; Ernesto Pastén; Felipe Saffie
  21. Probability of requesting unsecured loans:analysis of Russian household finances By Tatiana Shelovanova; Andrey Sinyakov
  22. The St. Louis Fed DSGE Model By Miguel Faria-e-Castro
  23. Green Central Banking and Game Theory: The Chicken Game approach By Fabian Alex
  24. Potential Climate Impact of Retail CBDC Models By Arvidsson, Niklas; Harahap, Fumi; Urban, Frauke; Nurdiawati , Anissa

  1. By: Haavio, Markus; Heikkinen, Joni; Jalasjoki, Pirkka; Kilponen, Juha; Paloviita, Maritta; Vänni, Ilona
    Abstract: We depart from the common reaction function-based approach used to infer central bank preferences. Instead, we extract the tone from the textual information in the central bank communication using both a lexicon-based approach and a language model. We combine the tone with real-time information available to the monetary policy decision-maker and directly estimate the loss function. We find strong and robust evidence of asymmetry in the case of the European Central Bank during 1999-2021: the slope of the loss function was roughly three times steeper when inflation exceeded the target compared to when it was below the target. This represents a significant departure from the quadratic and symmetric monetary policy loss function typically applied in macro models.
    Keywords: central bank communication, textual analysis, language models, asymmetric loss function, optimal monetary policy
    JEL: E31 E52 E58
    Date: 2024
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:298852&r=
  2. By: Chinara Azizova; Jonathan Witmer; Xu Zhang
    Abstract: Across several dimensions of lender of last resort policy, I highlight broad changes that have occurred since the 2008–09 global financial crisis and discuss some of the key challenges, choices and considerations facing the designers of central bank liquidity tools today.
    Keywords: Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission
    JEL: E52 E58 G21 G28
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:24-05&r=
  3. By: Bilbiie, F. O.
    Abstract: THANK is a tractable heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model that captures analytically core micro heterogeneity channels of quantitative-HANK: cyclical inequality and risk; self-insurance, pre-cautionary saving, and realistic intertemporal marginal propensities to consume. I use it to elucidate key transmission mechanisms and dynamic properties of HANK models. Countercyclical inequality yields aggregate-demand amplification and makes determinacy with Taylor rules more stringent; but solving the forward guidance puzzle requires procyclical inequality: a Catch-22. Solutions include combining inequality with a distinct risk channel, with compensating cyclicalities; I provide evidence that disposable income inequality was procyclical in the last two, Great and COVID recessions, while risk is countercyclical. Alternative policy rules also solve the Catch-22, e.g. price-level-targeting or, in the model version with liquidity, setting nominal public debt. Optimal policy with heterogeneity features a novel inequality-stabilization motive generating higher inflation volatility—but is unaffected by risk, insofar as the target efficient equilibrium entails no inequality.
    Keywords: Determinacy, Forward Guidance Puzzle, Heterogeneity, Inequality, Interest Rate Rules, Liquidity, Multipliers, Optimal Monetary Policy, Risk
    JEL: E21 E31 E40 E44 E50 E52 E58 E60 E62
    Date: 2024–06–13
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2420&r=
  4. By: Skylar Brooks
    Abstract: Central banks play a crucial role in promoting financial stability. They act as financial system stabilizers through their capacity to create liquidity and channel it to financial institutions and markets in times of stress—a role that has evolved and expanded substantially over the past 15 years. This paper provides a stylized discussion of recent policy developments in this area and what they mean for debates and decisions about the design of central bank liquidity policy. Across several policy dimensions, the paper outlines broad changes since the 2008–09 global financial crisis and highlights some of the key challenges, choices and considerations facing the designers of central bank liquidity tools today.
    Keywords: Lender of last resort; Financial stability; Central bank research; Financial institutions; Financial markets
    JEL: D53 E58 E61 G01 G2 G21 G23 H12
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:24-06&r=
  5. By: Bilbiie, F. O.; Monacelli, T.; Perotti, R.
    Abstract: Stabilization and redistribution are intertwined in a model with heterogeneity, imperfect insurance, and nominal rigidity-making fiscal and monetary policy inextricably linked for aggregate-demand management. Movements in inequality induced by fiscal transfers make the flexible-price equilibrium suboptimal, thus triggering a stabilization vs redistribution tradeoff. Likewise, changes in government spending that are associated with changes in the distribution of taxes (progressive vs. regressive) induce a tradeoff for monetary policy: the central bank cannot stabilize real activity at its efficient level (including insurance) and simultaneously avoid inflation. Fiscal policy can be used in conjunction to monetary policy to strike the optimal balance between stabilization and insurance (redistribution) motives.
    Keywords: Inequality, Redistribution, Aggregate Demand, Fiscal Transfers, Optimal Monetary-Fiscal Policy, TANK
    JEL: D91 E21 E62
    Date: 2024–06–17
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2421&r=
  6. By: James Graham; Avish Sharma
    Abstract: How does monetary policy affect the homeownership rate? A monetary contraction may have contrasting effects on ownership due to rising interest rates, falling in-comes, and lower house prices. To investigate, we build a heterogeneous household life-cycle model with housing tenure decisions, mortgage ï¬ nance, and an exogenous stochastic process to capture the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy. Following a contractionary shock, homeownership initially falls due to rising mortgage rates, but rises over the medium term given falling house prices. We also show that differences in mortgage credit conditions, mortgage flexibility, and household expectations formation can amplify homeownership dynamics following a shock.
    Keywords: homeownership, monetary policy, interest rates, house prices, heterogeneous households
    JEL: E52 E20 R21
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-43&r=
  7. By: José-Elías Gallegos (Banco de España)
    Abstract: The transmission channel of monetary policy in the benchmark New Keynesian (NK) framework relies on the counterfactual Full Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) assumption, particularly at the general equilibrium (GE) dimension. I relax the Full Information assumption and build a Heterogeneous-Agents NK model under financial frictions and dispersed information. I find that the amplification multiplier of monetary policy is dampened by the lessened role of GE effects. I then conduct the standard full-fledged NK analysis: the determinacy region is widened as a result of as if aggregate myopia, and the framework beyond FIRE does not suffer from the forward guidance puzzle. Finally, I find that transitory “animal spirits” shocks generate persistent effects.
    Keywords: imperfect information, New Keynesian, heterogeneous agents, monetary policy
    JEL: E31 E43 E52 E71
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2418&r=
  8. By: Tobias Adrian; Gaston Gelos; Nora Lamersdorf; Emanuel Moench
    Abstract: We document that U.S. monetary policy shocks have highly persistent but asymmetric effects on U.S. Treasury and global bond yields, with a clear break around the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Prior to the GFC, tightening shocks used to lead to a pronounced hump-shaped increase of Treasury yields across maturities. Yields used to respond little to easing shocks as term premiums would rise strongly, offsetting the associated decline of expected policy rates. Since the GFC, term premiums have been declining persistently following both tightening and easing shocks. As a result, post-GFC tightening shocks only have transitory positive effects on yields, which reverse later. The response of advanced-economy and emerging market sovereign yields essentially mimics the pattern observed for Treasury yields. Consistent with recent work by Kekre et al. (2022) we find that changes in the duration of primary dealer Treasury portfolios pre- and post-GFC are highly informative about the sign of the term premium response to policy shocks, but cannot explain the full picture. The observed puzzling persistence of returns is likely to stem at least in part from slow and persistent mutual fund flows following monetary policy surprises.
    Keywords: spillovers, monetary policy, yield curve, capital flows
    JEL: F32 E43 E52 G12 G15
    Date: 2024–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1195&r=
  9. By: Maximilian Schr\"oder
    Abstract: Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely on specific percentiles of the forecast distribution. In contrast, this paper introduces a comprehensive framework that examines how economic indicators impact the entire forecast distribution of macroeconomic variables, facilitating the decomposition of the overall risk outlook into its underlying drivers. Additionally, the framework allows for the construction of risk measures that align with central bank preferences, serving as valuable summary statistics. Applied to the recent inflation surge, the framework reveals that U.S. inflation risk was primarily influenced by the recovery of the U.S. business cycle and surging commodity prices, partially mitigated by adjustments in monetary policy and credit spreads.
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.17237&r=
  10. By: Vanessa Kunzmann
    Abstract: I estimate regime-dependent spillover effects from government spending shocks across the members of the European Monetary Union (EMU). I use panel regressions for a total of 14 EMU economies from 1997 to 2022. Government spending shocks are defined by unexpected innovations to forecast predictions of government purchases, similar to Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2013). However, In contrast to business cycle dependence, I investigate the quantitative impact of different fiscal policy regimes of the targeted country, the country of origin, and the monetary union on the spillover multipliers. Thereby, I allow fiscal and monetary policy to follow a two- state Markov Switching process characterizing an active and a passive regime as in Leeper (1991). Thus, governments differ in their debt reduction efforts to satisfy their budget constraint and monetary policy varies between inflation targeting and restrained price level determination. I find that spillover multipliers are highly regime-dependent, with positive and significant effects when the targeted country is active and the country of origin is passive. These effects are consistent but even larger for members with a high level of debt. However, results suggest that the importance of union-wide fiscal behavior and that of the central bank matters more for highly indebted countries. Thus, the interest rate channel is gaining relevance when debt is high. (JEL: F41;F42;F45; E62; C23)
    Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Spillovers; Fiscal Multiplier; Multiplier; European Monetary Union; Regime Switching; Fiscal Policy Rules, Monetary-Fiscal Interaction
    Date: 2023–08
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:227_kunzmann&r=
  11. By: Mr. Sam Ouliaris; Ms. Celine Rochon
    Abstract: This paper tests whether Japan's key macro policy multipliers have declined since 2013, the year that Japan introduced Qualitative and Quantitative Easing. We use the augmented Blanchard-Perotti structural VAR model introduced in Ouliaris and Rochon (2021) to study the dynamic effects of shocks in the central bank’s asset holdings, interest rates, and debt levels relative to GDP on economic activity in Japan. We find that both the expenditure and tax multipliers of Japan have fallen, implying that the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Japan declined following the change in monetary policy. Moreover, we find that the efficacy of quantitative easing is small, implying the need for huge interventions to have a significant effect on real GDP, and that the effectiveness of quantitative easing has declined since 2013. We argue that the reduction in policy multipliers can be attributed to the upward trend in the government debt level relative to GDP which, despite historically low interest rates, has increased Japan’s structural deficit, and the likelihood of reduced expenditures and higher taxes going forward.
    Keywords: fiscal multipliers; structural VAR
    Date: 2024–06–07
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/113&r=
  12. By: Enrico Wegner; Lenard Lieb; Stephan Smeekes; Ines Wilms
    Abstract: We propose a framework for the analysis of transmission channels in a large class of dynamic models. To this end, we formulate our approach both using graph theory and potential outcomes, which we show to be equivalent. Our method, labelled Transmission Channel Analysis (TCA), allows for the decomposition of total effects captured by impulse response functions into the effects flowing along transmission channels, thereby providing a quantitative assessment of the strength of various transmission channels. We establish that this requires no additional identification assumptions beyond the identification of the structural shock whose effects the researcher wants to decompose. Additionally, we prove that impulse response functions are sufficient statistics for the computation of transmission effects. We also demonstrate the empirical relevance of TCA for policy evaluation by decomposing the effects of various monetary policy shock measures into instantaneous implementation effects and effects that likely relate to forward guidance.
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.18987&r=
  13. By: Michele Azzone; Roberto Baviera; Pietro Manzoni
    Abstract: A growing number of contributions in the literature have identified a puzzle in the European carbon allowance (EUA) market. Specifically, a persistent cost-of-carry spread (C-spread) over the risk-free rate has been observed. We are the first to explain the anomalous C-spread with the credit spread of the corporates involved in the emission trading scheme. We obtain statistical evidence that the C-spread is cointegrated with both this credit spread and the risk-free interest rate. This finding has a relevant policy implication: the most effective solution to solve the market anomaly is including the EUA in the list of European Central Bank eligible collateral for refinancing operations. This change in the ECB monetary policy operations would greatly benefit the carbon market and the EU green transition.
    Date: 2024–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2405.12982&r=
  14. By: Hervé Alexandre (DRM, CNRS, [UMR 7088], Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL, Place du Maréchal de Lattre de Tassigny 75775 PARIS Cedex 16;); Catherine Refait-Alexandre (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France); Larry D. Wall (Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1000 Peachtree Street N.E, Atlanta, Georgia 30309-4470, USA)
    Abstract: The Fed operated various liquidity facilities during 2007-10 that were intended to alleviate financial system stress but could have been interpreted as an adverse signal. We analyze the response of the credit default swap market to the announcement and usage of these facilities by European banks. We find that Fed financial assistance tended to reduce market perception of risk if the information was related to Fed’s liquidity policies and increased risk perceptions when the information was more about banks’ riskiness. We also find the facilities reduced the perceived risk of publicly assisted banks but increased the perceived risk of banks that were not assisted.
    Keywords: Financial crisis, Federal Reserve lending facilities, European banks.
    JEL: E58 G21 G28
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2024-12&r=
  15. By: Christopher G. Gibbs; Herbert W. Xin
    Abstract: We compare the sacrifice ratio for a disinflation under an active monetary and passive fiscal policy mix to the sacrifice ratio under passive monetary and active fiscal policy, holding all else equal. The sacrifice ratio may be higher or lower in the active fiscal policy regime depending on the fiscal rule and the design of the disinflation policy. Fiscal led disinflations may be less costly than monetary led ones when they are anticipated. However, they may generate larger sacrifice ratios than monetary led ones when implemented “cold turkey.” Overall, the variance of the sacrifice ratio under fiscal led policies is much higher than that under monetary led policies.
    Keywords: Sacrifice ratio; monetary policy; fiscal policy; inflation; disinflation
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2024-12&r=
  16. By: Ryuichiro Izumi (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University); Yang LI (Singapore University of Social Sciences)
    Abstract: The banking turmoil of 2023 highlighted how technological advancements have significantly accelerated the speed of bank runs. This paper investigates the impact of these faster bank runs on the effectiveness of policy interventions by interpreting them as a constraint on the relative speed of policy responses. Using a model of bank runs and ex-post policy responses, we examine how delays caused by this constraint affect financial fragility and welfare. We find that while delays exacerbate welfare loss by distorting allocations, they may also decrease fragility by making banks more cautious. We explore the optimal level of structural delay, balancing the trade-off between distributional distortions and financial fragility.
    Keywords: Bank runs, Delayed Intervention, Speed of Bank Runs
    JEL: G21 G28 E58
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wes:weswpa:2024-006&r=
  17. By: Narayana R. Kocherlakota
    Abstract: This paper derives the curvature properties of the short-run Phillips curve in a class of canonical models of price-setting frictions. Contrary to conventional thinking, the Phillips curve is asymptotically horizontal for high levels of economic activity and asymptotically vertical for low levels of economic activity. Moreover, it is globally concave for a wide class of models, including many in which average real marginal cost is an unbounded convex function of economic activity. Intuitively, when economic activity is very high (low), substitution effects within the model-implied true price index imply that inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate the relevant substitution effects may lead to misleading conclusions about the curvature of the Phillips curve, and to corresponding errors in the formulation of monetary policy.
    JEL: E31 E52
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32528&r=
  18. By: Pablo Ottonello; Diego J. Perez; William Witheridge
    Abstract: We study the role of exchange rates in industrial policy. We construct an open-economy macroeconomic framework with production externalities and show that the desirability of these policies critically depends on the dynamic patterns of externalities. When they are stronger in earlier stages of development, economies that are converging to the technological frontier can improve welfare by intervening in foreign exchange markets, keeping the exchange rate undervalued, and speeding the transition; economies that are not converging to the technological frontier are better off not using the exchange rate as an industrial policy tool. Capital-flow mobility and labor market dynamism play a central role in the effectiveness of these policies. We also discuss the role of capital controls as an industrial policy tool and use our framework to interpret historical experiences.
    JEL: F0 F3 F4
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32522&r=
  19. By: Stephanie Ettmeier; Alexander Kriwoluzky
    Abstract: We investigate the interplay of the monetary-fiscal policy mix during times of crisis by drawing insights from the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s. We use a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to estimate a DSGE model with three distinct monetary/fiscal policy regimes. We show that in such a model SMC outperforms standard sampling algorithms because it is better suited to deal with multimodal posteriors, an outcome that is highly likely in a DSGE model with monetary-fiscal policy interactions. From the estimation with SMC a differentiated perspective results: pre- Volcker macroeconomic dynamics were similarly driven by passive monetary/passive fiscal policy and fiscal dominance. We apply these insights to study the post-pandemic inflation period.
    Keywords: Bayesian Analysis, DSGE Models, Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions, Monte Carlo Methods
    JEL: C11 C15 E63 E65
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_565&r=
  20. By: S. Borağan Aruoba; Andrés Fernández; Daniel Guzmán; Ernesto Pastén; Felipe Saffie
    Abstract: Uncertainty triggers two confounding effects: a realization and an anticipation effect. By using the 2019 riots in Chile as a quasi-natural experiment, we show that the pricing behavior of supermarkets is consistent with a pure anticipation effect: during the 31-day period following the start of the Riots, supermarkets reduce the frequency of price changes and, conditional on a price change, the absolute magnitude of price changes increase. A quantitative menu cost model with news about a future increase in idiosyncratic demand dispersion can deliver these pricing dynamics. The effectiveness of monetary policy crucially depends on the timing of the intervention.
    JEL: E31
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32538&r=
  21. By: Tatiana Shelovanova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: Household spending usually accounts for about 70% of total spending in the economy. An important role in the financing of household spending play lending, and Russia is no exception. The aim of this research is to measure the elasticity of the loan request probability in relation to the interest rate with given inflation expectations. Our model is estimated using the unique data obtained from the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finances, which contains information on more than 6000 households in Russia. We identify a set of Russian households’ characteristics that are key drivers for households’ requests for credit. The results show that growth in inflation expectations positively correlates with demand. It also takes a significant change in interest rates for the interest rate channel of monetary policy (with regard to unsecured loans) to make an impact. The model estimates we obtain are used in scenario forecasting to project the number of households requesting loans. According to a mid-point forecast by Rosstat, demand in terms of household count will be steady and boosted by the growth of the population of 18+ years of age. Even so, this growth is expected to be offset by a changing demographic structure. The results may be specific only to the period under study (2020–2022) and are not necessarily universal.
    Keywords: household finances survey, survey of consumer finances, demand for credit, probability of requesting loans, elasticity of demand in relation to the interest rate, credit demand drivers
    JEL: G21 G32 D22
    Date: 2023–12
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps120&r=
  22. By: Miguel Faria-e-Castro
    Abstract: This document contains a technical description of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model developed and maintained by the Research Division of the St. Louis Fed as one of its tools for forecasting and policy analysis. The St. Louis Fed model departs from an otherwise standard medium-scale New Keynesian DSGE model along two main dimensions: first, it allows for household heterogeneity, in the form of workers and capitalists, who have different marginal propensities to consume (MPC). Second, it explicitly models a fiscal sector endowed with multiple spending and revenue instruments, such as social transfers and distortionary income taxes. Both of these features make the model well-suited for the analysis of fiscal policy counterfactuals, and monetary-fiscal interactions. We describe how the model is estimated using historical data for the US economy and how the COVID-19 pandemic is accounted for. Some examples of model output are presented and discussed.
    Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models; policy analysis; New Keynesian models; TANK models; Bayesian estimation; fiscal policy
    JEL: E1 E2 E3 E4 E5
    Date: 2024–06
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98405&r=
  23. By: Fabian Alex
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of the probability that a cen- tral bank chooses to make its financial sector green. We derive a mixed- strategy Nash equilibrium from a strategic setting of two monetary au- thorities choosing simultaneously between the alternatives of greening and conducting business as usual. Using a very general setup, we obtain a model that nests most of the usual 2×2-situations in game theory. “Green†avoids a country’s contribution to an externality experienced by both, but also encompasses a sacrifice of slowing down economic performance. The prob- ability of greening is found to decrease whenever “greening†means a larger sacrifice for the other country, while it increases with the size of at least one of the two countries, the rate of internalization applied to the externality as well as the severity of this externality. Unlike the typical (pure) free-riding approach to international coordination on environmental issues, we find some willingness of countries to sacrifice wealth for the sake of avoiding a worst case. In a repeated setting, cooperative solutions can be estab- lished. The influence of discounting on the stability of these solutions is ambiguous. Finally, the model allows us to sketch the path along which the structure of our world’s climate game may evolve over time.
    Keywords: Environment, Environmental Economics, Green Economics, Game Theoretic, Game Theory, Games, Mixed Strategy, Two Player, Pub- lic Goods Game, Strategic Game
    Date: 2024–05
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:234_fabian_alex&r=
  24. By: Arvidsson, Niklas (KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Harahap, Fumi (KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Urban, Frauke (KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Nurdiawati , Anissa (KTH Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: The expansion of digital payment services like retail Central Bank Digital Currencies (rCBDCs) built on innovative ICT infrastructure, notably datacenters, raises questions regarding potential environmental consequences due to electricity consumption. The design of such systems is critical for environmental impact as it scales with multiple actors and complex protocols as well as being influenced by server location and energy sources. In addition to other critical issues related to rCBDCs, understanding its environmental impact is therefore crucial for policymakers if they are to ensure sustainability. This study analyses one potential rCBDC, the Swedish e-krona project, by focusing on design choices and electricity consumption by comparing to existing retail payment services. Findings indicate that the energy use per transaction of the e-krona is comparable to that of card payments. There are, at the same time, significant differences in energy use depending on whether the design of the infrastructure for the e-krona is centralized or decentralized, where a centralized solution tend to be less energy consuming than a decentralized solution. The study has deployed a lifecycle perspective to explore energy consumption scenarios across various ledger infrastructures enabling a comprehensive assessment.
    Keywords: Energy Consumption; Climate Impact; Digital Payment; E-krona; rCBDC
    JEL: E58 O38 P44 Q58
    Date: 2024–06–01
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0437&r=

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