nep-cba New Economics Papers
on Central Banking
Issue of 2021‒10‒18
twenty-two papers chosen by
Sergey E. Pekarski
Higher School of Economics

  1. Preventive monetary and macroprudential policy response to anticipated shocks to financial stability By Konstantin Styrin; Alexander Tishin
  2. Macroeconomic policy under a managed float: a simple integrated framework By Pierre-Richard Agénor; Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva
  3. Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions By Ferrando, Annalisa; Popov, Alexander; Udell, Gregory F.
  4. Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area By Fabiani, Josefina; Fidora, Michael; Setzer, Ralph; Westphal, Andreas; Zorell, Nico
  5. Investment funds, risk-taking, and monetary policy in the euro area By Giuzio, Margherita; Kaufmann, Christoph; Ryan, Ellen; Cappiello, Lorenzo
  6. Forward Guidance in an Advanced Small Open Economy in the Effective Lower Bound By Charlotte André Marine; Guido Traficante
  7. Low Interest Rates and Banks' Interest Margins: Does Belonging to a Banking Group Matter? By Isabel Argimon; Jayson M. Danton; Jakob de Haan; Javier Rodriguez-Martin; Maria Rodriguez-Moreno
  8. Overview of central banks’ in-house credit assessment systems in the euro area By Auria, Laura; Bingmer, Markus; Graciano, Carlos Mateo Caicedo; Charavel, Clémence; Gavilá, Sergio; Iannamorelli, Alessandra; Levy, Aviram; Maldonado, Alfredo; Resch, Florian; Rossi, Anna Maria; Sauer, Stephan
  9. Banks’ interest rate setting and transitions between liquidity surplus and deficit By Tatiana Grishina; Alexey Ponomarenko
  10. Discovering new plausibility checks for supervisory data By Romano, Stefania; Martinez-Heras, Jose; Raponi, Francesco Natalini; Guidi, Gregorio; Gottron, Thomas
  11. The Co-Movement between Foreign Reserves, Economic Growth and Money Supply: Evidence from the WAMZ Countries By Joof, Foday
  12. Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts? By Bańbura, Marta; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Menz, Jan-Oliver
  13. A proposal to use two interest rates in the U.S.; the FED Funds Rate and the Economic Recovery Rate By De Koning, Kees
  14. Switching-track after the Great Recession By Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar
  15. Euro Area Housing Markets: Trends, Challenges and Policy Responses By Vítor Martins; Alessandro Turrini; Bořek Vašíček; Madalina Zamfir
  16. Precautionary Liquidity Shocks, Excess Reserves and Business Cycles By Bratsiotis, George J.; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
  17. China’s Transition to a Digital Currency: Does It Threaten Dollarization? By Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Kayani, Farrukh Nawaz
  18. Designing Macro-Financial Scenarios: The New CNB Framework and Satellite Models for Property Prices and Credit By Miroslav Plasil
  19. Anti-Money Laundering Enforcement, Banks, and the Real Economy By Senay Agca; Pablo Slutzky; Stefan Zeume
  20. Bitcoin and traditional currencies during the Covid-19 pandemic period By Chu, Meifen
  21. Exploring the conjunction between the structures of deposit and credit markets in the digital economy under information asymmetry By Elena Deryugina; Alexey Ponomarenko; Andrey Sinyakov
  22. Inflation Regimes and Hyperinflation. A Post-Keynesian/Structuralist typology By Sébastien Charles; Eduardo Bastian; Jonathan Marie

  1. By: Konstantin Styrin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexander Tishin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: In this paper, we develop a simple framework to study the optimal macroprudential and monetary policy interactions in response to financial shocks. Our model combines nominal rigidities and capital accumulation, features that have usually been studied separately in previous literature. In our model, we show that agents do not internalise how their asset purchases affect asset prices. Thus, when crises occur, there are fire sales: less demand for capital further reduces prices and agents are worse off. Policy interventions (both monetary and macroprudential) can improve allocations by restricting borrowing ex-ante (during the accumulation of risks and imbalances) and stimulating the economy ex-post (during crises). As a result, we find a complementary relationship between ex-ante monetary policy and preventive macroprudential policy. We also compare this result with a flexible-price model and a frictionless model and conduct several sensitivity analysis exercises.
    Keywords: Macroprudential policy, monetary policy, pecuniary externalities, nominal rigidities, financial frictions, capital accumulation.
    JEL: E44 E58 G28 D62
    Date: 2021–09
  2. By: Pierre-Richard Agénor; Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva
    Abstract: This paper presents a simple integrated macroeconomic model of a small, bank-dependent open economy with a managed float and financial frictions. The model is used to study, both analytically and diagrammatically, the macroeconomic effects of five types of policy instruments: fiscal policy, monetary policy, macroprudential regulation, foreign exchange intervention, and capital controls, in the form of a tax on bank foreign borrowing. We also consider a drop in the world interest rate and examine how these instruments can be adjusted jointly to restore the initial equilibrium. Although this analysis is only partial (given, in particular, the static nature of the model and the absence of an explicit account of policy preferences), it provides new insights on how macroeconomic policies operate under a managed float and financial frictions, and how these policies can complement each other in response to capital inflows driven by "push" factors. In particular, the analysis shows that, to stabilize the economy, whether monetary policy should be contractionary or expansionary depends on which other instruments are available to policymakers. The joint use of macroprudential regulation and capital controls is also shown to provide a potent combination to manage capital inflows.
    JEL: E63 F38 F41
    Date: 2021–09
  3. By: Ferrando, Annalisa; Popov, Alexander; Udell, Gregory F.
    Abstract: We study the transmission of (unconventional) monetary policy to the real sector when firm decisions depend on both current and future credit market conditions. For a given level of current credit access, investment and employment increases more at firms expecting bank credit to improve in the future. Three separate unconventional policies by the ECB—the OMT, the introduction of negative rates, and the CSPP—improved expectations of future credit access for SMEs borrowing from banks that were expected to increase SME lending due to the policy. Our results enhance our understanding of the bank balance sheet channel of monetary policy. JEL Classification: D22, D84, E58, G21, H63
    Keywords: corporate investment, funding expectations, Unconventional monetary policy
    Date: 2021–10
  4. By: Fabiani, Josefina; Fidora, Michael; Setzer, Ralph; Westphal, Andreas; Zorell, Nico
    Abstract: This paper analyses the incidence and severity of sudden stops in euro area countries before and after the introduction of the ECB’s asset purchase programmes. We define sudden stops as abrupt declines in private net financial inflows, i.e. total flows adjusted for EU and IMF loans and changes in TARGET2 balances. Distinguishing between mild and severe sudden stops, we document that sudden stops were overall more frequent and more severe in euro area countries compared to other OECD economies over the period 1999–2020. On the basis of a multinomial logit model, we find that the susceptibility of euro area countries to severe sudden stops mainly reflects domestic fundamentals whereas there is no clear evidence of an adverse direct effect of being part of the euro area. On the contrary, TARGET2 appears to act as an “automatic stabiliser”, counteracting sudden stops in private financial i nflows. Moreover, our econometric analysis suggests that the asset purchase programmes implemented by the ECB since 2015 have overall almost halved the risk of severe sudden stops in euro area countries. We find tentative evidence that this effect operates through confidence channels. JEL Classification: F21, F31, F32, F41, F45
    Keywords: ECB asset purchase programmes, financial flows, monetary policy, sudden stops
    Date: 2021–10
  5. By: Giuzio, Margherita; Kaufmann, Christoph; Ryan, Ellen; Cappiello, Lorenzo
    Abstract: We examine the transmission of monetary policy via the euro area investment fund sector using a BVAR framework. We find that expansionary shocks are associated with net inflows and that these are strongest for riskier fund types, reflecting search for yield among euro area investors. Search for yield behaviour by fund managers is also evident, as they shift away from low yielding cash assets following an expansionary shock. While higher risk-taking is an intended consequence of expansionary monetary policy, this dynamic may give rise to a build-up in liquidity risk over time, leaving the fund sector less resilient to large outflows in the face of a crisis. JEL Classification: E32, G11, G23
    Keywords: liquidity management, monetary policy, non-bank financial intermediation
    Date: 2021–10
  6. By: Charlotte André Marine; Guido Traficante
    Abstract: We examine forward guidance (with known and uncertain duration) in a New Keynesian model for an advanced small open economy, showing that the response of the economy to this policy depends, both quantitatively and qualitatively, on some structural features through calibrations for Sweden and Spain. In particular, an announcement of future expansionary policy is positively related to the exchange rate pass-through and is larger than in the closed economy counterpart because of a better inflation-output trade-off and the exchange rate channel. We also show that multiple equilibria could arise and that the real exchange rate is a key variable driving this result. In particular, the response of output and inflation is amplified when aggregate supply is negatively related to the real exchange rate. These results could not necessarily be extended to emerging market economies.
    JEL: E31 E52
    Date: 2021–10
  7. By: Isabel Argimon; Jayson M. Danton; Jakob de Haan; Javier Rodriguez-Martin; Maria Rodriguez-Moreno
    Abstract: Using data for a large sample of banks from 31 OECD countries over 1995–2018, we analyze the impact of belonging to a banking group on banks’ net interest margins. Our results confirm a positive relationship between interest rates and interest margins, which is stronger in a low-interest rate environment. For banks belonging to an international banking group, we find that interest margins are less sensitive to the local interest rate. Our results show that banks belonging to an international group are sensitive to the interest rate prevailing in the group’s headquarter, but only in a low interest rate environment.
    Keywords: bank profitability, monetary policy transmission, net interest margin, low interest rates, banking groups
    JEL: E43 E52 G21
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Auria, Laura; Bingmer, Markus; Graciano, Carlos Mateo Caicedo; Charavel, Clémence; Gavilá, Sergio; Iannamorelli, Alessandra; Levy, Aviram; Maldonado, Alfredo; Resch, Florian; Rossi, Anna Maria; Sauer, Stephan
    Abstract: The in-house credit assessment systems (ICASs) developed by euro area national central banks (NCBs) are an important source of credit risk assessment within the Eurosystem collateral framework. They allow counterparties to mobilise as collateral the loans (credit claims) granted to non-financial corporations (NFCs). In this way, ICASs increase the usability of non-marketable credit claims that are normally not accepted as collateral in private market repo transactions, especially for small and medium-sized banks that lend primarily to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This ultimately leads not only to a widened collateral base and an improved transmission mechanism of monetary policy, but also to a lower reliance on external sources of credit risk assessment such as rating agencies. The importance of ICASs is exemplified by the collateral easing measures adopted in April 2020 in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis. The measures supported the greater use of credit claim collateral and, indirectly, increased the prevalence of ICASs as a source of collateral assessment. This paper analyses in detail the role of ICASs in the context of the Eurosystem’s credit operations, describing the relevant Eurosystem guidelines and requirements in terms of, among other factors, the estimation of default probabilities, the role of statistical models versus expert analysis, input data, validation analysis and performance monitoring. It then presents the main features of each of the ICASs currently accepted by the Eurosystem as credit assessment systems, highlighting similarities and differences. JEL Classification: E58
    Keywords: credit assessments, credit claims, credit risk models, ICAS, ratings
    Date: 2021–10
  9. By: Tatiana Grishina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: Assuming that a central bank is successful in steering money market interest rates, commercial banks’ loan rate setting behaviour is not expected to change during a transition between liquidity surplus and deficit. However, this logic does not hold if a bank employs different money market instruments for the lending and borrowing activities. In this environment, it may be appropriate to adjust the loan rates when a bank transitions between liquidity surplus and deficit (i.e. switches between the benchmark money market rates). This strategy is fundamentally different from linking the loan rates to the average cost of funding (i.e. the average between retail and wholesale funding rates). The magnitude of such loan rate adjustment is limited by the (usually moderate) spread between the funding and investment money market rates.
    Keywords: Excess reserves, Lending rates, Fund transfer pricing, Russia
    JEL: E43 E51 E58 G21 C63
    Date: 2021–10
  10. By: Romano, Stefania; Martinez-Heras, Jose; Raponi, Francesco Natalini; Guidi, Gregorio; Gottron, Thomas
    Abstract: In carrying out its banking supervision tasks as part of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), the European Central Bank (ECB) collects and disseminates data on significant and less significant institutions. To ensure harmonised supervisory reporting standards, the data are represented through the European Banking Authority’s data point model, which defines all the relevant business concepts and the validation rules. For the purpose of data quality assurance and assessment, ECB experts may implement additional plausibility checks on the data. The ECB is constantly seeking ways to improve these plausibility checks in order to detect suspicious or erroneous values and to provide high-quality data for the SSM. JEL Classification: C18, C63, C81, E58, G28
    Keywords: machine learning, plausibility checks, quality assurance, supervisory data, validation rules
    Date: 2021–10
  11. By: Joof, Foday
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of foreign currency reserve and economic growth on money supply, using a panel data of five West African Monetary Zone (WAMZs) member states from 2001-2019. The study employed the dynamic Panel techniques (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square) and the Static method (Fixed Effect model) for robustness check. The long run results showed that foreign currency reserves (FCR) have a positive impact on money supply, implying that a one percent increase in foreign currency reserves augments money supply (M2) by 2.87%, 0.44% and 0.08%, respectively in the long run. Similarly, economic growth is associated with an increase in money supply in both models. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu and Hurlin Causality (2012) estimation revealed a feedback association between foreign currency reserve and money supply. This means that that foreign reserves and money supply are complementary. Conversely, a unidirectional causality moving from economic growth to M2 is observed, demonstrating that economic growth causes M2 and not otherwise. This outcome is explained by the QTM (quantity theory of money) in which the velocity of money is a positive function of total money supply. As money circulates in the economy as a result of a surge in investments, consequently increases money stock. Similarly, investment opportunities that are been exploited day-by-day explains the growing money stock. Central banks should endeavor to monitor the expansionary influence of net foreign assets (NFA) on money supply growth in the WAMZ by establishing suitable methods to sterilize foreign exchange infusions into the economy.
    Keywords: foreign currency reserve, money supply, economic growth, WAMZ, Dynamic Model , Static Model
    JEL: E5 E58
    Date: 2021–10–14
  12. By: Bańbura, Marta; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Menz, Jan-Oliver
    Abstract: Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their counterparts that do not. The gains in forecast accuracy from incorporating inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide useful information. By contrast, incorporating expectations derived from financial market prices or those of firms and households does not lead to systematic improvements in forecast performance. Individual models we consider are typically better than univariate benchmarks but for the euro area the professional forecasters are more accurate, especially in recent years (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food and both point and density forecast are evaluated using real-time data vintages over 2001-2019. JEL Classification: C53, E31, E37
    Keywords: Bayesian VAR, forecasting, inflation, inflation expectations, Phillips curve
    Date: 2021–10
  13. By: De Koning, Kees
    Abstract: The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will gradually reduce its purchases of eligible securities (Quantitative Easing) from November 2021. At the same meeting of the Federal Reserve Board, the Committee members who decide when to start raising interest rates were split equally about a possible starting date. The current guidance rate is between 0% and 0.25%. If the guidance rate is changed, the banking sector follows. An element that needs further attention is how an interest rate rise would affect households and thereby employment levels, profit levels of companies and the tax receipts of the U.S. Government. Take mortgages as an example. A mortgage represents the encumbered element of a home. The second element is the home equity savings element. In case of an increase in base rates, the financial sector can be expected to follow up with an increase in mortgage rates. The borrowers will have no choice but to pay up. There is another option that focuses on the savings element in U.S. home equity, currently estimated at $23.6 trillion. Treating home equity savings as a key to economic expansion needs a system that helps households to temporarily reduce some of such home equity and use it for funding its consumer spending levels. The financial sector cannot lend funds at 0% as they borrow their funds at market rates. However, the Fed can do so by introducing not one but two different rates: one the Fed funds rate, which influences the rate for the financial, commercial and Government borrowing sector and the second one for a temporary release of some home equity for households; the Economic Recovery Rate (ERR). The latter –a 0% rate- can be applied as a micro and equally a macro economic tool to stimulate the U.S. economy as and when needed. Why and how such dual interest rate system could work is explained in this paper.
    Keywords: Economic Recovery Rate; Inflation; Home Equity; Mortgage lending, Economic Adjustment Tools; Quantitative Easing; Federal Reserve.
    JEL: E2 E21 E27 E4 E40 E42 E43 E44 E5
    Date: 2021–10–07
  14. By: Vinci, Francesca; Licandro, Omar
    Abstract: We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower trajectory. A Taylor rule policy designed to reduce the output gap may counterbalance the shocks, preventing the destruction of economic capacity and inducing a V-shaped recovery. However, when shocks are deep and persistent enough, like during the Great Recession, they call for a downward revision of potential output measures, the so-called switching-track, weakening the recovering role of monetary policy and inducing an L-shaped recovery. When calibrated to the U.S. economy, the model replicates well the L-shaped recovery and switching-track that followed the Great Recession, as well as the V-shaped recoveries that followed the oil shock recessions. JEL Classification: E12, E22, E32, O41, E52
    Keywords: economic capacity, economic recovery, endogenous growth, monetary policy, supply destruction prevention
    Date: 2021–10
  15. By: Vítor Martins; Alessandro Turrini; Bořek Vašíček; Madalina Zamfir
    Abstract: The paper discusses the relevance of housing markets for macroeconomic developments from a euro area perspective, reviews trends in house prices and mortgage credit, and discusses policy approaches to prevent housing booms and deal with busts. After years of unsustainably strong house price growth in several Member States in a context of easing credit conditions, downward house price corrections took place after the 2008 financial crisis. A recovery in house prices started after 2013 under different conditions compared with the pre-financial crisis context. The house price recovery appeared to be driven to a greater extent by structural factors and to a lesser extent by buoyant household loans, as credit growth has been lagging behind house price growth in most countries. Prospects for house price growth after the COVID-19 outburst are clouded by uncertainty in light of the changing outlook when economic fundamentals and policy responses play in opposite directions. The current context is also diffeent compared with the period before the global financial crisis because macro-prudential frameworks have been strengthened and macroprudential tools are increasingly used across the euro area. The effectiveness of policy tools needed to address risks linked to boom-bust dynamics in the real estate sector depends on their interaction, design and timely implementation. Policy composition and policy design also appear crucial in dealing with possible trade-offs among policy objectives, including between macro-financial stability and housing affordability.
    JEL: R21 R31 C32 E37 E58
    Date: 2021–09
  16. By: Bratsiotis, George J.; Theodoridis, Konstantinos
    Abstract: This paper identifies a precautionary banking liquidity shock via a set of sign, zero and forecast variance restrictions imposed. The shock proxies the banking sector's reluctance to lend to the real economy induced by an exogenous preference change for liquid assets. Through the lens of a DSGE model, the precautionary liquidity shock is shown to work through two channels: reserves (balance sheet) and the deposit rate (intertemporal effect). The overall effect is a downward co-movement in output, consumption, investment, and prices, which is amplified the higher are the long-run risks in the economy and banks' responsiveness to potential risk.
    Keywords: SVAR,Sign and Zero Restrictions,DSGE,Precautionary Liquidity Shock,Excess Reserves,Deposit Rate,Risk,Financial Intermediation
    JEL: C10 C32 E30 E43 E51 G21
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Aysan, Ahmet Faruk; Kayani, Farrukh Nawaz
    Abstract: This article provides a detailed introduction to China’s launching of a digital currency. We conduct a comparative analysis concerning whether digital currency is a more stable and reliable currency than cryptocurrency and investigate whether a digital renminbi (or yuan) could replace the US dollar as a medium of exchange in international transactions. China has gained a first-mover advantage by rolling out a central bank digital currency (CBDC). But the outcome will depend on the US response as well as the future evolution of the US and Chinese economies. Most other articles on this topic focus on domestic use of the Chinese CBDC. But this study is unique in analyzing the prospects of a digital renminbi as a replacement for the US dollar in international commerce.
    Keywords: China, cryptocurrency, digital yuan, People’s Bank of China, US.
    JEL: F50
    Date: 2021–05–06
  18. By: Miroslav Plasil
    Abstract: The paper sets out to present the Czech National Bank's new methodological framework for satellite models, i.e. models that link the macroeconomic scenario obtained from the core forecasting model with the evolution of key financial variables. Consistent macro-financial scenarios are particularly needed in macroprudential stress-testing. The paper describes the main underlying concepts of the new framework and provides further technical details on four newly deployed models for residential property prices and for bank loans in the main credit segments (housing loans, consumer loans and loans to non-financial corporations). The key advantage of the new approach is a shift to better-structured and more closely interrelated models. This should help maintain the internal consistency of the macro-financial scenario, facilitate communication of the assumptions behind the projections of financial variables and provide a high degree of robustness to structural changes in the economy.
    Keywords: Gaussian process regression, macroprudential policy, satellite models, stress testing
    JEL: C51 C53 E37 E51
    Date: 2021–09
  19. By: Senay Agca (George Washington University); Pablo Slutzky (University of Maryland); Stefan Zeume (University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign)
    Abstract: We exploit a tightening of anti-money laundering (AML) enforcement that imposed disproportionate costs on small banks to examine the effects of a change in bank composition on real economic outcomes. In response to intensified enforcement, counties prone to high levels of money laundering experience a departure of small banks and increased activity by large banks. This results in an increase in the number of small establishments and real estate prices. Consistent with a household demand channel, wages and employment increase in the non-tradable sector. Last, we document secured lending as a potential driver of this outcome.
    Keywords: Money laundering, Financial Institutions, Real economy, Deposits and lending, Financial crime
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Chu, Meifen
    Abstract: The objective of this study is to examine the movement of Bitcoin and the traditional currencies (USD, EURO, GBP and CNY) and the Bitcoin’s hedging of the traditional currencies. First, this paper observes the Bitcoin and four traditional currency exchange series: the USD, EURO, GBP and CNY. Second, it examines the fluctuation patterns of each series by using wavelet transform analysis, Third, a wavelet coherence analysis is applied to examine the interdependence between the Bitcoin and the four traditional currencies. The phase pattern analysis results indicate that the Bitcoin may not act as a hedging currency to replace the traditional currencies during the Covid-19 crisis. Another interesting result shows the rapid increasing number of the World Covid-19 Deaths (CovidDeaths) may not be the critical reason for the hyper price of the Bitcoin. The massive quantitative easing (QE) may be considered as the key reason for the soar-up of the Bitcoin price.
    Keywords: Bitcoin, Traditional currencies, Covid-19, CovidDeaths, Hedging feature, Wavelet Analysis
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2021–04–05
  21. By: Elena Deryugina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: In the digital economy, customer data becomes particularly valuable. Customer transactions monitored by banks, payment systems, and retail platforms are a useful source of information to assess potential borrowers’ credit risk. Thus, a dominant player at a payment or deposit market, behaving strategically, may influence the characteristics of the lending market. In this article, we show, within the game-theoretic framework, that such dominance can affect the market structure, loan pricing, financial inclusion, and credit risk accumulated on banks’ balance sheets. Our results show that specifics of the digital economy set a new link between structures of deposit and credit markets. Information asymmetries allow the dominant player to increase its profits at the expense of the profits gained by other players. At the same time, the accessibility of loans to more risky borrowers reduces while credit risks of banks’ loan portfolios decline.
    Keywords: retail payments, banking, market structure, asymmetric information, customer data
    JEL: D43 D82 G21
    Date: 2021–09
  22. By: Sébastien Charles (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis); Eduardo Bastian; Jonathan Marie (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - UP13 - Université Paris 13)
    Abstract: The article proposes a typology of inflation regimes that can be applied to any kind of economy based on the Post-Keynesian and structuralist literature. We identify three separate regimes: the low, moderate, and high inflation regimes. Hyperinflation is also defined and described. Each regime presents different characteristics. We identify the key role played by the distributive conflict between workers and capitalists in all the regimes, the role played by the indexation of wages on domestic prices in the moderate and high inflation regimes, and the specific roles played by the widespread indexation on a short term basis in the high inflation regime. Hyperinflation is explained by selffulfilling prophecies about exchange rate variations and by the rejection of the domestic currency. Our analysis underlines the fact that the current fear of inflation is largely groundless.
    Keywords: Inflation,Hyperinflation,Post-Keynesian analysis,Structuralist analysis
    Date: 2021–10–03

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