nep-cba New Economics Papers
on Central Banking
Issue of 2017‒04‒02
twenty-two papers chosen by
Maria Semenova
Higher School of Economics

  1. The pre-crisis monetary policy implementation framework By Kroeger, Alexander; McGowan, John; Sarkar, Asani
  2. Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates By Ferrari, Massimo; Kearns, Jonathan; Schrimpf, Andreas
  3. The (unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever By Matteo Crosignani; Miguel Faria-e-Castro; Luís Fonseca
  4. The Making of Hawks and Doves: Inflation Experiences on the FOMC By Malmendier, Ulrike M.; Nagel, Stefan; Yan, Zhen
  5. Banks' exposure to interest rate risk and the transmission of monetary policy By Matthieu Gomez; Augustin Landier; David Sraer; David Thesmar
  6. International Inflation Spillovers Through Input Linkages By Auer, Raphael; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Sauré, Philip
  7. The Cost Channel Effect of Monetary Transmission: How Effective Is the ECB’s Low Interest Rate Policy for Increasing Inflation? By Dorothea Schäfer; Andreas Stephan; Khanh Trung Hoang
  8. Did the Basel Process of Capital Regulation Enhance the Resiliency of European Banks? By Gehrig, Thomas; Iannino, Maria Chiara
  9. Systemic risk and individual risk: A trade-off? By Tatiana Gaelle Yongoua Tchikanda
  10. Resolution of international banks: can smaller countries cope? By Dirk Schoenmaker
  11. Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets By Irina Balteanu; Aitor Erce
  12. Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Role of Price Markups and Increasing Returns to Production Specialization By Chang, Juin-Jen; Lai, Ching-Chong; Liao, Chih-Hsing
  13. The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains By Auer, Raphael; Borio, Claudio; Filardo, Andrew J
  14. The new SNB exchange rate index By Robert Müller
  15. Empirical Evidence from a Japanese Lending Survey within the TVP-VAR Framework: Does the Credit Channel Matter for Monetary Policy? By Tatsuki Okamoto; Yoichi Matsubayashi
  16. Mapping the interconnectedness between EU banks and shadow banking entities By Abad, Jorge; D'Errico, Marco; Killeen, Neill; Luz, Vera; Peltonen, Tuomas; Portes, Richard; Urbano, Teresa
  17. Exchange Rate Policies at the Zero Lower Bound By Amador, Manuel; Bianchi, Javier; Bocola, Luigi; Perri, Fabrizio
  18. Durations at the Zero Lower Bound By Richard Dennis
  19. Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times By Giovanni Caggiano; Efrem Castelnuovo; Gabriela Nodari
  20. Countercyclicality of financial crisis interventions in an open economy with credit constraint By Carmiña O. Vargas; Julian A. Parra-Polania
  21. Credit conditions, macroprudential policy and house prices By Robert Kelly, Fergal McCann, Conor O'Toole
  22. Enhancements to the BIS International Banking Statistics and Highlights of the Results of the Statistics in Japan By Makiko Inoue; Yasunori Yoshizaki; Kana Sasamoto; Kyosuke Shiotani

  1. By: Kroeger, Alexander (Analysis Group); McGowan, John (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Sarkar, Asani (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)
    Abstract: This paper describes the Federal Reserve’s framework for implementing monetary policy prior to the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet during the financial crisis. The pre-crisis framework was a reserve-scarcity regime in which banks demanded reserves in order to meet minimum reserve requirements. The New York Fed’s open market trading desk implemented monetary policy by carefully managing the supply of reserves, primarily through the conduct of daily repo operations with primary dealers. The open market trading desk was able to achieve its monetary policy implementation objectives efficiently in the pre-crisis period without impairing financial market functioning. However, the framework deployed was complex relative to alternative implementation frameworks and required substantial intraday overdrafts from the Fed to meet banks’ short-term payment needs. Once its balance sheet expanded in response to the financial crisis, the Fed was no longer able to rely on the pre-crisis framework to control the policy rate. Nevertheless, the open market trading desk successfully controlled the policy rate using the new, post-crisis framework, suggesting that effective monetary control may be achieved through different frameworks.
    Keywords: Fed; monetary policy framework; pre-crisis
    JEL: E52 E58 N10
    Date: 2017–03–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:809&r=cba
  2. By: Ferrari, Massimo; Kearns, Jonathan; Schrimpf, Andreas
    Abstract: We show that the FX impact of monetary policy has been growing significantly. We use a high-frequency event study of the joint response of fixed income instruments and exchange rates to monetary policy news from seven major central banks spanning 2004-2015. News affecting short maturity bonds have the strongest impact, highlighting the relevance of communication regarding the path of future policy. The FX impact of monetary policy is state-dependent and is stronger the lower is the level of interest rates. A greater adjustment burden falls onto the exchange rate, as rates are increasingly constrained by the effective lower bound.
    Keywords: event study; Exchange Rates; forward guidance; High Frequency Data; Unconventional Monetary Policy
    JEL: E52 E58 F31
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11918&r=cba
  3. By: Matteo Crosignani; Miguel Faria-e-Castro; Luís Fonseca
    Abstract: We study the design of lender of last resort interventions and show that the provision of long-term liquidity incentivizes purchases of high-yield short-term securities by banks. Using a unique security-level data set, we find that the European Central Bank’s three-year Long-Term Refinancing Operation incentivized Portuguese banks to purchase short-term domestic government bonds that could be pledged to obtain central bank liquidity. This “collateral trade” effect is large, as banks purchased short-term bonds equivalent to 8.4% of amount outstanding. The resumption of public debt issuance is consistent with a strategic reaction of the debt agency to the observed yield curve steepening. JEL Classification: E58, G21, G28, H63
    Keywords: Lender of Last Resort, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt
    Date: 2016–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:201631&r=cba
  4. By: Malmendier, Ulrike M.; Nagel, Stefan; Yan, Zhen
    Abstract: We show that personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components.
    JEL: D84 E03 E50
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11902&r=cba
  5. By: Matthieu Gomez; Augustin Landier; David Sraer; David Thesmar
    Abstract: We show that the cash-flow exposure of banks to interest rate risk, or income gap, affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks to bank lending and real activity. We first use a large panel of U.S. banks to show that the sensitivity of bank profits to interest rates increases significantly with measured income gap, even when banks use interest rate derivatives. We then document that, in the cross-section of banks, income gap predicts the sensitivity of bank lending to interest rates. The effect of income gap is larger or similar in magnitudes to that of previously identified factors, such as leverage, bank size or even asset liquidity. To alleviate the concern that this result is driven by the endogenous matching of banks and firms, we use loan-level data and compare the supply of credit to the same firm by banks with different income gap. This analysis allows us to trace the impact of banks’ income gap on firm borrowing capacity, investment and employment, which we find to be significant. JEL Classification: E52, G21, E44
    Keywords: interest rate risk, monetary policy, bank lending
    Date: 2016–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:201613&r=cba
  6. By: Auer, Raphael; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Sauré, Philip
    Abstract: We document that observed international input-output linkages contribute substantially to synchronizing producer price inflation (PPI) across countries. Using a multi-country, industry-level dataset that combines information on PPI and exchange rates with international and domestic input-output linkages, we recover the underlying cost shocks that are propagated internationally via the global input-output network, thus generating the observed dynamics of PPI. We then compare the extent to which common global factors account for the variation in actual PPI and in the underlying cost shocks. Our main finding is that across a range of econometric tests, input-output linkages account for half of the global component of PPI inflation. We report three additional findings: (i) the results are similar when allowing for imperfect cost pass-through and demand complementarities; (ii) PPI synchronization across countries is driven primarily by common sectoral shocks and input-output linkages amplify co-movement primarily by propagating sectoral shocks; and (iii) the observed pattern of international input use preserves fat-tailed idiosyncratic shocks and thus leads to a fat-tailed distribution of inflation rates, i.e., periods of disinflation and high inflation.
    Keywords: global value chain; globalisation; inflation; input linkages; input-output linkages; international inflation synchronization; monetary policy; production structure; Supply Chain
    JEL: E31 E52 E58 F02 F14 F33 F41 F42 F62
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11906&r=cba
  7. By: Dorothea Schäfer; Andreas Stephan; Khanh Trung Hoang
    Abstract: We examine whether monetary transmission during the financial and sovereign debt crisis was dominated by the cost channel or by the demand-side channel effect. We use two approaches to track down the potential passthrough of changes in the monetary policy rate to those in consumer prices. First, we utilize panel data from the German manufacturing industry. Second, we conduct time series analyses for Germany, Italy, and Spain. We find that when manufacturing firms’ interest costs drop, the changes in their respective industry’s price index are smaller one year later. This finding is consistent with the cost channel theory. Taken together, the results of both panel data and time series analyses imply that the ECB’s low interest rate policy has worked better for boosting inflation in Italy and Spain than in Germany
    Keywords: Inflation, cost channel, monetary transmission
    JEL: G01 E31
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1654&r=cba
  8. By: Gehrig, Thomas; Iannino, Maria Chiara
    Abstract: This paper analyses the evolution of the safety and soundness of the European banking sector during the various stages of the Basel process of capital regulation. In the first part we document the evolution of various measures of systemic risk as the Basel process unfolds. Most strikingly, we find that the exposure to systemic risk as measured by SRISK has been steeply rising for the highest quintile, moderately rising for the second quintile and remaining roughly stationary for the remaining three quintiles of listed European banks. This observation suggests that the Basel process has succeeded in containing systemic risk for the majority of European banks but not for the largest institutions. In the second part we analyse the drivers of systemic risk. We find compelling evidence that the increase in exposure to systemic risk (SRISK) is intimately tied to the implementation of internal models for determining credit risk as well as market risk. Based on this evidence, the sub-prime crisis found especially the largest and more systemic banks ill-prepared and lacking resiliency. This condition has even aggravated during the European sovereign crisis. Banking Union has not (yet) brought about a significant increase in the safety and soundness of the European banking system. Finally, low interest rates affect considerably to the contribution to systemic risk across the whole spectrum of banks.
    Keywords: capital shortfall; internal risk models; quantile regressions; resilience; systemic risk
    JEL: B26 E58 G21 G28 H12 N24
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11920&r=cba
  9. By: Tatiana Gaelle Yongoua Tchikanda
    Abstract: The global financial crisis raised concerns about the European financial system structure. The systemic nature of financial institutions, especially banking institutions, was highlighted, questioning the bottom-up approach used so far to ensure the financial stability as a whole. In this study, we legitimize the calibration of micro-prudential instruments for macro-prudential purposes in order to measure and manage systemic risk. The debate on the best way to eliminate the negative externalities of systemic risk is politically controversial and economically complicated. Using bank balance sheet and daily stock market data from listed banks classified as Monetary Financial Institutions (MFIs) across EU-17 over the period 1999-2013, we investigate whether more individual bank soundness is conducive for financial stability. Through a 2SLS model to correct the observed endogeneity between the individual risk, measured by Z-score (Roy, 1952) and the systemic risk, measured by SRISK (Acharya, Engle and Richardson, 2012), our strong empirical results suggest that riskier banks contribute more to systemic risk. Thus, individual bank soundness increases the banking system resilience to potential shocks. On the one hand, this finding seems to challenge the traditional bottom-up approach. Indeed, our outcome emphasizes the fallacy of composition prior the crisis. Nevertheless, it shows that even if the sum of the risks borne by financial institutions does not reflect the global risks borne by the entire system, it is an important addition. On the other hand, this result justifies the calibration of micro-prudential tools for macro-prudential purposes; taking into account individual factors that are sources of systemic fragilities and a part of individual risk-taking. This study has important policy implications for designing and implementing new regulations to improve the financial system stability, in particular for MFIs because systemic risk remains misunderstood and its measuring tools are still ongoing (Hansen, 2012).
    Keywords: Financial stability, Bank risk-taking, systemic risk, financial structure.
    JEL: G21 G28
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2017-16&r=cba
  10. By: Dirk Schoenmaker
    Abstract: The stability of a banking system ultimately depends on the strength and credibility of the fiscal backstop. While large countries can still afford to resolve large global banks on their own, small and medium-sized countries face a policy choice. This paper investigates the impact of resolution on banking structure. The financial trilemma model indicates that smaller countries can either conduct joint supervision and resolution of their global banks (based on single point of entry resolution) or reduce the size of their global banks and move to separate resolution of these banks’ national subsidiaries (based on multiple point of entry resolution). Euro-area countries are heading for joint resolution based on burden sharing, while the UK and Switzerland have implemented policies to downsize their banks. JEL Classification: F30, G21, G28
    Keywords: Global Financial Architecture, International Banks, Burden Sharing, Resolution Planning, Single Point of Entry, Multiple Point of Entry
    Date: 2017–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:201734&r=cba
  11. By: Irina Balteanu (Bank of Spain); Aitor Erce (ESM)
    Abstract: We analyze the mechanisms through which bank and sovereign distress feed into each other, using a large sample of emerging market economies over three decades. After defining “twin crises” as events where bank crises and sovereign defaults combine, and further distinguishing between those bank crises that end up in sovereign defaults and vice-versa, we study what differentiates “single” and “twin” events. Using an event analysis methodology, we document systematic differences between “single” and “twin” crises across various dimensions. We show that many of the regularities often associated with either “bank” or “debt” crises are present in twin events only. We further show that “twin” crises themselves are heterogeneous events: the proper time sequence of crises that compose “twin” episodes is important for understanding these events. Guided by these facts, we use discrete-variable econometric techniques to assess the main channels of distress transmission between crises. We find that balance sheet interconnections, credit dynamics, financial openness and economic growth are important drivers of twin crises. Our results inform the flourishing theoretical literature on the mechanisms surrounding feedback loops of sovereign and bank stress.
    Keywords: Banking Crises, Sovereign Defaults, Feedback Loops, Balance Sheets
    JEL: E44 F34 G01 H63
    Date: 2017–02–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:wpaper:22&r=cba
  12. By: Chang, Juin-Jen; Lai, Ching-Chong; Liao, Chih-Hsing
    Abstract: Estimates of the welfare costs of moderate inflation are generally modest or small. This paper, by shedding light on increasing returns to production specialization, obtains a substantial welfare cost of 8% in an endogenous growth model of monopolistic competition with endogenous entry. Analytically, we show that the effect of inflation is aggravated (resp. alleviated) by a price markup if the degree of increasing returns to production specialization is relatively high (resp. low). Accordingly, our quantitative analysis indicates that the welfare cost of inflation exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with the price markup. This non-monotone is sharply in contradiction to the conventional notion. Nonetheless, the welfare cost of inflation is unambiguously increasing in the degree of increasing returns to production specialization.
    Keywords: Welfare cost of inflation, price markup, increasing returns to production specialization.
    JEL: E5 E52 O4 O42
    Date: 2017–03–21
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77753&r=cba
  13. By: Auer, Raphael; Borio, Claudio; Filardo, Andrew J
    Abstract: Greater international economic interconnectedness over recent decades has been changing inflation dynamics. This paper presents evidence that the expansion of global value chains (GVCs), ie cross-border trade in intermediate goods and services, is an important channel through which global economic slack influences domestic inflation. In particular, we document the extent to which the growth in GVCs explains the established empirical correlation between global economic slack and national inflation rates, both across countries and over time. Accounting for the role of GVCs, we also find that the conventional trade-based measures of openness used in previous studies are poor proxies for this transmission channel. The results support the hypothesis that as GVCs expand, direct and indirect competition among economies increases, making domestic inflation more sensitive to the global output gap. This can affect the trade-offs that central banks face when managing inflation.
    Keywords: global value chain; globalisation; inflation; input-ouput linkages; international inflation synchronisation; monetary policy; Phillips curve; production structure; Supply Chain
    JEL: E31 E52 E58 F02 F14 F41 F42 F62
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11905&r=cba
  14. By: Robert Müller
    Abstract: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is putting its calculated and published exchange rate indices on a new footing. This article describes the construction elements of the SNB's new exchange rate index, and presents the results of the new index calculation. The key aspects of the revision are: the application of the weighting method used by the IMF, which takes into account so-called third-market effects; continuous updating of the countries incorporated into the index; and calculation of a chained index. The methodological changes in the calculation of the new index have only a slight effect on the development of the nominal index. However, the difference between the nominal and real index (CPI-based) has increased with the new calculation. This is explained by the fact that countries with a greater weighting in the new index have higher average rates of inflation than those whose weighting has been reduced.
    Keywords: Effective exchange rate index, weighting schemes, chained index
    JEL: F31
    Date: 2017
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbecs:2017-11&r=cba
  15. By: Tatsuki Okamoto (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Yoichi Matsubayashi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether Japanese monetary policy had been working through the credit channel and its sub-channels between March 2000 and March 2016 using time-varying parameter VAR. The identification of credit transmission channels is a very difficult problem due to the impossibility to observe the conditions of credit supply and demand. However, using the credible data collected from the ‘Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices at Large Japanese Banks’ (SLOS), we identified the credit channel and its sub-channels. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no previous studies that have employed SLOS data for the evaluation of transmission channels. The estimation findings show a high possibility that large and middle-sized firms had little effect on monetary policy through the credit channel, but did have an effect through portfolio rebalancing. Small firms are thought to have an effect through the credit channel and its sub-channels, but it is not a big effect. The detailed reason as to why the effect of monetary easing differed by the firm size should be considered by looking at more specific portfolio rebalancing effects and loans to overseas.
    Keywords: Time-Varying Parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, Credit Channel, Credit supply, Lending standards, Monetary policy.
    JEL: E41 E44 E51 E52 G21
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1709&r=cba
  16. By: Abad, Jorge; D'Errico, Marco; Killeen, Neill; Luz, Vera; Peltonen, Tuomas; Portes, Richard; Urbano, Teresa
    Abstract: This paper provides a unique snapshot of the exposures of EU banks to shadow banking entities within the global financial system. Drawing on a rich and novel dataset, the paper documents the cross-sector and cross-border linkages and considers which are the most relevant for systemic risk monitoring. From a macroprudential perspective, the identification of potential feedback and contagion channels arising from the linkages of banks and shadow banking entities is particularly challenging when shadow banking entities are domiciled in different jurisdictions. The analysis shows that many of the EU banks' exposures are towards non-EU entities, particularly US-domiciled shadow banking entities. At the individual level, banks' exposures are diversified although this diversification leads to high overlap across different types of shadow banking entities.
    Keywords: financial stability; interconnectedness; macroprudential; shadow banking
    JEL: F65 G21 G23
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11919&r=cba
  17. By: Amador, Manuel (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Bianchi, Javier (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Bocola, Luigi (Northwestern University); Perri, Fabrizio (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)
    Abstract: We study how a monetary authority pursues an exchange rate objective in an environment that features a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on nominal interest rates and limits to international arbitrage. If the nominal interest rate that is consistent with interest rate parity is positive, the central bank can achieve its exchange rate objective by choosing that interest rate, a well-known result in international finance. However, if the rate consistent with parity is negative, pursuing an exchange rate objective necessarily results in zero nominal interest rates, deviations from parity, capital inflows, and welfare costs associated with the accumulation of foreign reserves by the central bank. In this latter case, all changes in external conditions that increase inflows of capital toward the country are detrimental, while policies such as negative nominal interest rates or capital controls can reduce the costs associated with an exchange rate policy. We provide a simple way of measuring these costs, and present empirical support for the key implications of our framework: when interest rates are close to zero, violations in covered interest parity are more likely, and those violations are associated with reserve accumulation by central banks.
    Keywords: Capital flows; CIP deviations; Currency pegs; Foreign exchange interventions; International reserves; Negative interest rates
    JEL: F31 F32 F41
    Date: 2017–03–16
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:740&r=cba
  18. By: Richard Dennis
    Abstract: Many central banks in developed countries have had very low policy rates for quite some time. A growing number are experimenting with official rates that are negative. We develop a New Keynesian model in which the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates is imposed as an occasionally binding constraint and use this model to examine the duration of ZLB episodes. In addition, we show that capital accumulation and capital adjustment costs can raise significantly the length of time an economy spends at the ZLB, as can the conduct of monetary policy. We identify anticipation effects that make the ZLB more likely to bind and we show that allowing negative nominal interest rates shortens average durations, but only by about one quarter.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, zero lower bound, new Keynesian
    JEL: E3 E4 E5
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2017_05&r=cba
  19. By: Giovanni Caggiano (Department of Economics, Monash University; Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova; and Bank of Finland); Efrem Castelnuovo (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, the University of Melbourne; Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne; and Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova); Gabriela Nodari (Reserve Bank of Australia)
    Abstract: We investigate the role played by systematic monetary policy in tackling the real effects of uncertainty shocks in U.S. recessions and expansions. We model key indicators of the business cycle with a nonlinear VAR that allows for different dynamics in busts and booms. Uncertainty shocks are identified by focusing on historical events that are associated to jumps in financial volatility. Uncertainty shocks hitting in recessions are found to trigger a more abrupt drop and a faster recovery in real activity than in expansions. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the effectiveness of systematic monetary policy in stabilizing real activity is greater in expansions. Finally, we provide empirical and narrative evidence pointing to a risk management approach by the Federal Reserve.
    Keywords: Uncertainty shocks, nonlinear Smooth Transition Vector AutoRegressions, Generalized Impulse Response Functions, systematic monetary policy
    JEL: C32 E32
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2017n09&r=cba
  20. By: Carmiña O. Vargas (Banco de la República de Colombia); Julian A. Parra-Polania (Banco de la República de Colombia)
    Abstract: In an open-economy model with collateral constraint, Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2016) propose a procyclical policy (it calls for capital controls that are higher during crises than during normal times) that supposedly solves the externality problem that results from the underestimation of the social costs of decentralized debt decisions. We show that such policy does not solve the problem and recall that previous literature has established that a countercyclical tax on debt (positive during normal times and nil during crisis) does. We also show that the externality problem can be solved as well by a countercyclical subsidy on consumption (positive during crises and zero in normal times). The latter result, however, is not a robust policy recommendation because it is not a solution if we remove the assumption that lenders overlook the effect of lump-sum taxes on borrowing capacity. Classification JEL: F34, F41, G01, H23, D62
    Keywords: credit constraint; financial crisis; policy cyclicality; capital controls; macroprudential
    Date: 2017–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:989&r=cba
  21. By: Robert Kelly, Fergal McCann, Conor O'Toole
    Abstract: We provide a micro-empirical link between the large literature on credit and house prices and the burgeoning literature on macroprudential policy. Using loan-level data on Irish mortgages originated between 2003 and 2010, we construct a measure of credit availability which varies at the borrower level as a function of income, wealth, age, interest rates and prevailing market conditions around Loan to Value ratios (LTV), Loan to Income ratios (LTI) and monthly Debt Service Ratios (DSR). We deploy a property-level house price model which shows that a ten per cent increase in credit available leads to an 1.5 per cent increase in the value of property purchased. Coefficients from this model are then used to fit values under scenarios of macroprudential restrictions on LTV, LTI and DSR on credit availability and house prices in Ireland for 2003 and 2006. Our results suggest that macroprudential limits would have had substantial impacts on house prices, and that both the level at which they are set and the timing of their introduction is a crucial determinant of their impact on housing values. JEL Classification: E58, G28, G21, R31
    Keywords: Mortgages, credit availability, macroprudential policy, house prices
    Date: 2017–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srk:srkwps:201736&r=cba
  22. By: Makiko Inoue (Bank of Japan); Yasunori Yoshizaki (Bank of Japan); Kana Sasamoto (Bank of Japan); Kyosuke Shiotani (Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: With the lessons learned from the international financial crisis of 2008, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and central banks worldwide have been working on enhancements to the BIS international banking statistics (IBS) which comprehensively quantify cross-border capital and credit flows through the banking sector. The purpose of the enhancements is to help capture the build-up of risks in the financial system such as credit exposures to the shadow banks. The Bank of Japan (BOJ), in line with its cooperation to enhance the IBS, has made some improvements to the results of the statistics in Japan. These enhanced statistics are independently published by the BOJ and include further breakdown of the counterparty sector and calculation of aggregated figures for Japanese banks. By virtue of these enhancements, analyses of these newly available data clarify that, for example, external claims have been increasing mainly due to investments in U.S. securities and in funds registered in offshore centers by such entities as Japanese banks and institutional investors subjected to persistently low interest rates in Japan.
    Keywords: BIS international banking statistics (IBS); Consolidated Banking Statistics (CBS); Locational Banking Statistics (LBS); enhancements; in Japan
    Date: 2017–03–29
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev17e01&r=cba

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