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on Central Banking |
| By: | Koch, Christoffer (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Abstract: | Shocks emanating from and propagating through the banking system have recently gained interest in the macroeconomics literature, yet they are not a feature unique to the 2008/09 financial crisis. Banking disintermediation shocks occured frequently during the Great Inflation era due to fixed deposit rate ceilings. I estimate the effect of deposit rate ceilings inscribed in Regulation Q on the transmission of federal funds rate changes to bank level credit growth using a historic bank level data set spanning half a century from 1959 to 2013 with about two million observations. Measures of the degree of bindingness of Regulation Q suggest that individual banks’ lending growth was smaller the more binding the legally fixed rate ceiling. Interaction terms with monetary policy suggest that the policy impact on bank level credit growth was non-linear at the ceiling “kink” and significantly larger when rate ceilings were in place. At the bank level, short-term interest rates exceeding the legally fixed deposit rate ceilings identify bank loan supply shifts that disappeared with deposit rate deregulation and thus weakened the credit channel of monetary transmission since the early 1980s. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Transmission; Lending Channel; Regulation Q; Deregulation; Great Moderation |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:1406&r=cba |
| By: | Nicolas Moumni; Benaissa Nahhal |
| Abstract: | In the context of international financial crisis, this paper aims to analyze the impact of liquidity level on effectiveness of monetary policy transmission of the Moroccan central bank (Bank Al Maghrib, BAM). After a long period of liquidity excess, the Moroccan banking system through, since 2007, a liquidity shortage that forces BAM to inject a regular and massive quantity of liquidity. For example, 7-day advances bidding BAM rose from 3,5 billion dirhams in 2006 to 2,420 billion dirhams in 2012, an increase by 691 times. To evaluate the influence of liquidity level on effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission of Bank Al Maghrib, we estimate a simple VAR over the period 1998-2012 by distinguishing the period of liquidity excess and liquidity shortage.Our results show that in periods of liquidity excess the monetary policy transmission would be less effective, especially in the long term. Instead, a situation of liquidity shortage makes it more effective. |
| Keywords: | Morocco, Monetary issues, Macroeconometric modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6662&r=cba |
| By: | Mati Dubrovinsky |
| Abstract: | The Bank of Canada (BoC) should carefully monitor the money supply to better predict inflation and track the effectiveness of its monetary policy, according to a new C.D. Howe Institute report. In “Money Still Matters: How the Bank of Canada Might Better Monitor Inflation,” author Mati Dubrovinsky suggests the BoC should also pay particular attention to the possibility that the public’s inflation expectations will shift below targeted inflation, and should be prepared to adjust policy if and when such a shift occurs. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E51 E58 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdh:ebrief:180&r=cba |
| By: | Rudi Steinbach; Stan du Plessis; Ben Smit |
| Abstract: | Determine the optimal response of a small open economy's central bank to financial shocks that lead to increases in credit spreads. Increasing credit spreads reduce the efficacy of monetary policy when the central bank is reducing the policy rate to accommodate a lowering in economic activity.Used a DSGE model that incorporates heterogeneous households and financial intermediaries. Financial shocks leads to an increase in non-performing loans, which in turn causes the financial intermediary to increase the spread over the policy rate at which it is willing to lend.The central bank should reduce the policy rate in response to rising credit spreads, however this response is more muted when compared to a closed economy facing a similar shock. |
| Keywords: | South Africa / Italy, Monetary issues, Macroeconometric modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7194&r=cba |
| By: | Marlene Amstad; Simon Potter; Robert Rich |
| Abstract: | Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real-time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the "Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)" for CPI and PCE. Using a dynamic factor model approach, the UIG is derived from a broad data set that extends beyond price series to include a wide range of nominal, real, and financial variables. It also considers the specific and time-varying persistence of individual subcomponents of an inflation series. An attractive feature of the UIG is that it can be updated on a daily basis, which allows for a close monitoring of changes in underlying inflation. This capability can be very useful when large and sudden economic fluctuations occur, as at the end of 2008. In addition, the UIG displays greater forecast accuracy than traditional measures of core inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Dynamic Factor Models, Core Inflation, Monetary Policy, Forecasting |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:453&r=cba |
| By: | COMBEY, Adama; NUBUKPO, Kako |
| Abstract: | The recent economic and financial crisis in the euro area seems to question the theoretical solutions to coordinate economic policies in monetary unions. In this paper, we adress the current system of economic policy coordination within the WAEMU during 1994-2010. Using game theory and econometric techniques, we analyze the prospects of this framework. Thus, the effects of the coordination of the Central Bank and the WAEMU Commission on key macroeconomic variables are analyzed and the effects of fiscal policy coordination on intermediate goals including budget deficits and inflation. It appears that a mechanism for coordinating policies to strengthen the foundations for institutional convergence to support economic growth in the long term and that clearly specifies the set of monetary and fiscal contracts between on one side the monetary authority and fiscal authorities of the other, is a must for the optimality of the effects of monetary and fiscal policy item. |
| Keywords: | policy coordination, monetary policy, fiscal policy, game theory,WAEMU |
| JEL: | C70 E50 E62 P11 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58118&r=cba |
| By: | Fabia Carvalho; Fabia A. de Carvalho; Silvio Michael de Azevedo Costa; Marcos Ribeiro de Castro |
| Abstract: | This paper builds a DSGE model in which future wage assignments are introduced as collateral for risky consumer and housing loans, in addition to standard BGG-type loans to entrepreneurs. Banks face matter-of-fact constraints in funding and lending markets, have liquidity targets, and are subject to a number of macroprudential rules, such as reserve requirements, capital requirements, and regulation on housing loan concessions. The main determinants of actual bank lending spreads are mapped into the model through the introduction of taxes on banking activity, monopolistic competition in a segment of the bank's conglomerate, credit risk, and regulatory and operational costs. The bank operates in the open market, and that is key to the transmission channel of reserve requirements. The model is carefully tailored to Brazil and reproduces the baseline understanding of the transmission channel of monetary policy and of reserve requirements. Macroprudential regulation in the form of capital requirements has important implications for the dynamics of real variables. DSGE modeling, with results analyzed trhough impulse responses. The first draft of the paper presents a calibration and IRFs. We plan to present in the conference a full-fledged estimated version of it, with variance decomposition analysis, historical decomposition of shocks, in addition to scenario studies. Preliminary results with the calibrated version of the model show that our modeling strategy is capable of reproducing the baseline understanding of the transmission channel of monetary policy and of reserve requirements. In addition, macroprudential regulation in the form of capital requirements has important implications for the dynamics of real variables. We also plan to study to effect of changes in risk weights in capital requirements, changes in the remuneration of reserve requirements, and also analyze the transmission of the last financial shock through the eyes of the model. |
| Keywords: | Brazil, Monetary issues, Optimization models |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5145&r=cba |
| By: | Yasuo Hirose (Faculty of Economics, Keio University,) |
| Abstract: | Benhabib, Schmitt-Grohé, and Uribe (2001) argue for the existence of a deflation steady state when the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate is considered in a Taylor-type monetary policy rule. This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with a deflation steady state for the Japanese economy during the period from 1999 to 2013, when the Bank of Japan conducted a zero interest rate policy and the inflation rate was almost always negative. Although the model exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy around the deflation steady state, a set of specific equilibria is selected by Bayesian methods. According to the estimated model, shocks to households' preferences, investment adjustment costs, and external demand do not necessarily have an inflationary effect, in contrast to a standard model with a targeted-inflation steady state. An economy in the deflation equilibrium could experience unexpected volatility because of sunspot fluctuations, but it turns out that the effect of sunspot shocks on Japan's business cycles is marginal and that macroeconomic stability during the period was a result of good luck. |
| Keywords: | Deflation, Zero interest rate, Japanese economy, Indeterminacy, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upd:utppwp:025&r=cba |
| By: | Maria Teresa Punzi (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Caterina Mendicino (Economics and Research Department, Bank of Portugal) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the monetary and macroprudential policies that mitigate the procyclicality arising from the interlinkages between current account deficits and financial vulnerabilities. We develop a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogeneous households and collateralised debt. The model predicts that external shocks are important in driving current account deficits that are coupled with run-ups in house prices and household debt. In this context, optimal policy features an interest-rate response to credit and a LTV ratio that countercyclically responds to house price dynamics. By allowing an interest-rate response to changes in financial variables, the monetary policy authority improves social welfare, because of the large welfare gains accrued to the savers. The additional use of a countercyclical LTV ratio that responds to house prices, increases the ability of borrowers to smooth consumption over the cycle and is Pareto improving. Domestic and foreign shocks account for a similar fraction of the welfare gains delivered by such a policy. |
| Keywords: | house prices, financial frictions, global imbalances, saving glut, dynamic loan-to value ratios, monetary policy, optimized simple rules |
| JEL: | C33 E51 F32 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp180&r=cba |
| By: | Antonio Ribba; Antonella Cavallo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dynamic effects of common macroeconomic shocks in shaping business cycle fluctuations in a group of Euro-area countries. In particular, by using the structural (Near)VAR methodology, we investigate the effect of area-wide shocks, with particular attention to monetary policy shocks, on the evolution of inflation and output of the national economies. Preliminary results show that there are two distinct groups of countries: a first group, including the biggest European economies, in which business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by common, areawide shocks; a second one, including Greece, Ireland and Portugal, in which the national shocks play, instead, a much greater role. |
| Keywords: | Euro-area countries , Business cycles, Macroeconometric modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6739&r=cba |
| By: | Bedri Kamil Onur Tas |
| Abstract: | Although there are many studies that empirically investigate the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT) on several aspects of the economy, the mechanisms through which IT improves the economic conditions are not studied extensively. A theoretical study is needed to present the dynamics of IT and uncover the reasons behind the success of IT. In this paper, we theoretically investigate the mechanisms through which IT effects the expectations of the public and achieve desired levels of inflation, inflation uncertainty and credibility. The study considers two mechanisms through which IT achieves its goals: (1) improvement in the credibility of the Central Bank (CB) (2) improvement in the ability of the central bank to alter the expectations of the public. To analyze these mechanisms, we construct and solve a model of asymmetric information and learning between the CB and the public. The source of the asymmetric information is the time-varying inflation targets of the CB. This paper theoretically investigates the effect of IT on the information dynamics between the Central Bank (CB) and the public. The paper introduces time-varying implicit inflation targets of the CB as the potential source of asymmetric information. Then, the model shows that IT central banks attain the desired outcomes because IT eliminates the asymmetric information about the implicit inflation targets of the CB and the frictions caused by that asymmetric information. Following the empirical findings of Ireland (2007) and Leigh (2008), we construct a model of asymmetric information and learning where the CB has an implicit inflation target and that target is unknown to the public. The model features two agents, the Central Bank (CB) and a representative private-sector agent. The information structure is hierarchical since the CB is assumed to possess private information that the private-sector agent tries to deduce by observing the CB’s actions. Hierarchical information structure is modeled as in Townsend (1983). The information structure consists of two steps: • The CB determines its inflation target of time t and uses a simple Taylor rule to determine the interest rate. . The CB follows an AR(1) rule for the inflation target as in Gurkaynak et al. (2005). (This target is announced to the public in the inflation targeting case). • The representative private-sector agent observes the interest rate and the inflation target.(in the inflation targeting case) and revises her inflation and output expectations. To analyze these mechanisms, we construct and solve a model of asymmetric information and learning between the CB and the public. The source of the asymmetric information is the time-varying inflation targets of the CB. The model depends on unobserved-components modelling with state-space representations. The model is solved using the Kalman filtering algorithm. The results present that IT countries attain the desired outcomes because IT eliminates the asymmetric information and the frictions caused by that asymmetric information. As a result, we propose and theoretically show that in non-IT countries the private agents are uncertain about the implicit inflation target of the CB and they construct their expectations about the target by following the actions of the CB. That learning dynamics increases the uncertainty and the level of inflation significantly. IT eliminates that uncertainty about the inflation target since the target is announced and becomes public information. The announcement of a credible target anchors inflation expectations as empirically shown by Gurkaynak et al. (2010) and lower levels of inflation and inflation uncertainty are achieved as a result. There are three main results of this paper. First, inflation and output expectations of the public are significantly affected by the inflation target under the case of IT. In other words, we theoretically present the mechanism through which IT anchors inflation and output expectations. Second, in the discretionary CB case, the private sector agent uses a filtered estimate of the inflation target of the CB to form her expectations which increases the variance (stability) of inflation expectations of the public. Finally, credibility of the CB is significantly affected by the target under the IT case. The CB can improve its credibility by announcing a credible target. |
| Keywords: | Calibration with US parameters. , Monetary issues, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6725&r=cba |
| By: | Yulia Vymyatnina |
| Abstract: | A Common Economic Area (CEA) formed by Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus since January 1st 2012, following creation of the Customs Union between these countries in 2007 (and in operation since mid-2010), raises a number of topical questions on whether it can be sustainable, trade-stimulating, efficient in terms of long-run economic growth etc. However, an important part in the effects of inter-country influence within such a union is played by the degree the countries are connected through other than trade policies - monetary policy in general and exchange rate policy in particular. The nature of such inter-connectedness is influenced by the proneness of these countries to ‘resource curse' (or ‘Dutch disease' broadly understood as reallocation of production inputs in the economy due to its dependence on natural resource exports). Our objective is to check how monetary policies (including exchange rate policies) in these countries influence the others in the Customs Union.We use quarterly data for 1996-2010 for Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan on the following economic indicators: real GDP, inflation, bilateral and effective exchange rates, interest rates. Additional data are collected on oil prices, oil-related real GDP in all three countries (estimated using the method suggested by Masaaki 2009), capital flows and a proxy for ‘world GDP’ in real terms. We build a small inter-country forward-looking simultaneous equations model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve in which economies of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan are described using a number of equations. The model contains two layers of links between countries: explicit one through real effective exchange rates (that rely also on trade intensity between the countries) and implicit one using inter-country averages suggested by GVAR methodology (Chudik and Pesaran 2007). Unlike GVAR, our model uses a small number of countries only, and contains one dominating country (Russia). However, as Monte-Carlo experiments described in Charemza et al (2009) suggest, GVAR methodology can be successfully used in case of small number of countries with a dominating country. Our version of the inter-country model is an adaptation of the model built in Charemza et al (2009) with a number of changes suitable for a different set of countries. While Belarus can be considered small opened economy and microfoundations for the type of model used can be found in e.g. Gali and Monacelli (2005) and Benigno and Benigno (2006), for Russia microfoundations have to be different and are loosely derived following the argument from Sosunov and Zamulin (2007) and Charemza et al (2009). Kazakhstan might be regarded as a somewhat ‘middle’ case, since in terms of economy size it is closer to Belarus, but in terms of expected macroeconomic dependencies might be reasonably considered closer to Russia with a potential threat of the Dutch disease. The first equation for each country describes output gap depending on its own lagged values, real effective exchange rate (REER), world output gap, base interest rate and inter-country averages of output gaps (GVAR methodology). The second equation describes dynamics of non-systematic part of current inflation through lagged inflation, output gap (alternatively – oil-related real GDP), REER, expected deviation of future inflation from its target level (forward-looking equation) and inter-country averages of inflation. The REER is modeled as consisting of two parts – external (proxied by REER with USD and Euro) and internal (REER with the other two countries from the model) with trade shares used as weights (third equation of the model). Bilateral exchange rates are modeled as related to output gaps and REERs of corresponding countries (fourth equation of the model). The model is closed by requiring that bilateral exchange rates (after proper transformations) are inversely related to each other. The last equation of the model describes monetary policy rule for each country, allowing for different modifications depending on the previous research on the topic, Central Banks announcements etc. Bilateral exchange rates modeling allows also to reflect the degree of exchange rate control by the Central Banks of the relevant countries. The equations are estimated using GMM method. The model includes 18 equations in total, being quite parsimonious in terms of parameters – 77 in all equations. Being heavily inter-related through both exchange rates inter-influence and trade inter-influence, the model allows us to simulate spillover effects of various policy measures and pass-through effects of the ‘Dutch disease' between the CEA countries. Simulation experiments (modeling changes in exchange rate regimes, base interest rate (monetary policy changes) and external changes reflected in external part of REER) demonstrate that Belarus is most dependent on the other two counterparts of the union. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Macroeconometric modeling, Trade issues |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:7160&r=cba |
| By: | Joyce, Michael (Bank of England); Spaltro, Marco (Morgan Stanley Investment Management) |
| Abstract: | Studies of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) policy have tended to focus on its impact on financial markets and the broader macroeconomy. Less attention has been given to the effect on banks’ balance sheets and bank lending. In this paper we use a new non-publicly available panel data set of UK banks to address this question. Based on the historical bank-level relationship between deposits and bank lending, our analysis suggests that the first round of the Bank’s QE purchases during 2009-10 may have led to a small but statistically significant increase in bank lending growth. These effects appear more important for small rather than large banks. Our evidence also suggests that QE had weaker effects on lending because of low levels of bank capital. |
| Keywords: | Banking; quantitative easing; panel data |
| JEL: | E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0504&r=cba |
| By: | Fajar Oktiyanto; Harmanta; Nur M. Adhi Purwanto; Aditya Rachmanto |
| Abstract: | The experience from the recent global financial crisis on 2008/2009 showed that most macroeconomic instabilities came from the financial/banking sector. The condition of the financial system may affect monetary stability, through excessive pro-cyclicality in the financial system. Agung et al (2010) stated that pro-cyclicality level of financial sector in Indonesia is quite high. The evidence can be seen from the real credit which grew faster than GDP in the period of expansion, and vice versa. On the other hand, monetary policy may also affect the company's risk-taking behavior in financial markets, by affecting the company’s balance sheet as well as bank (credit portfolio, asset, etc.), which in turn will affect the stability of the financial system. Bernanke and Gertler (2001) stated that an aggressive monetary policy will not provide a significant advantage to regulate the movement of asset prices, due to the large volatility of financial variables. Hence, it is necessary to establish a combination of policy instruments to achieve price stability and financial stability. To formulate policies for price stability and financial market, we built a DSGE model that has the ability to simulate the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies in Indonesia. We incorporated a credit channel and financial intermediation mechanism in the model to capture pro-cyclicality in the financial sector, which will influence the dynamics of the business cycle, as suggested by Roger and Vleck (2011). The model is built on the basis of Gerali et al (2010) who have entered the banking sector with collateral constraint in the New Keynesian DSGE models a la Christiano et al (2005), and also adding a model of the financial accelerator approach a la Bernanke et al (1999) which has been modified by Zhang (2009). We used two approaches to model financial frictions in the financial sector: (i) collateral constraint, imposed on bank lending to households; and (ii) financial accelerator, imposed on lending to entrepreneurs. Collateral constraints mechanism in the household borrowing allows simulation of macroprudential policies such as the LTV ratio, which has been implemented in Indonesia for the last few years. On the other hand, the financial accelerator mechanism imposed on the entrepreneurs affected their decision to borrow from the bank to purchase their capital needs. The model that we developed is a small open economy DSGE model that has economic agents such as households (patient and impatient) conducting consumption, labor supply, savings to and borrowings from banks and paying taxes to the government. In addition there are entrepreneurs, intermediate good producers, capital good producers, housing producers and final good producers associated with the production of goods, the production of capital, as well as the final goods aggregator. This model also has a wide range of retailers, namely domestic retailers, importer retailers and exporter retailers that served to differentiate homogenous goods at no cost and sell them at a certain profit, with the opportunity to change the selling price following the usual mechanism from Calvo (1983). The condition of the financial system may affect monetary stability, through excessive pro-cyclicality in the financial system. The evidence can be seen from the real credit which grew faster than GDP in the period of expansion, and vice versa. On the other hand, monetary policy may also affect the company's risk-taking behavior in financial markets, by affecting the company’s balance sheet as well as bank (credit portfolio, asset, etc.), which in turn will affect the stability of the financial system. Hence, it is necessary to establish a combination of policy instruments to achieve price stability and financial stability. This model should describe the economic condition under monetary and macro prudential policy mix response if there are any shock happened. As the result, the model has detail treatment of banking sector according to Indonesia context. The transmission of macro-prudential policy shock is studied by analyzing the impulse responses to shock some variable, especially LTV. We find that macro-prudential policy plays an important role to dampen excessive economic and financial cycles in Indonesia. We also find that the results are better when macro-prudential instruments are exercised together with appropriate monetary policy responses. Therefore coordination between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy is critical In order to obtain optimum results in achieving macroeconomic stability and financial system stability. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia, General equilibrium modeling, Agent-based modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6840&r=cba |
| By: | Bordo, Michael D. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Humpage, Owen F. (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland) |
| Abstract: | During the Bretton Woods era, balance-of-payments developments, gold losses, and exchange rate concerns had little influence on Federal Reserve monetary policy, even after 1958 when such issues became critical. The Federal Reserve could largely disregard international considerations because the U.S. Treasury instituted a number of stop-gap devices—the gold pool, the general agreement to borrow, capital restraints, sterilized foreign-exchange operations—to shore up the dollar and Bretton Woods. These, however, gave Federal Reserve policymakers the latitude to focus on domestic objectives and shifted responsibility for international developments to the Treasury. Removing the pressure of international considerations from Federal Reserve policy decisions made it easier for the Federal Reserve to pursue the inflationary policies of the late 1960s and 1970s that ultimately destroyed Bretton Woods. In the end, the Treasury’s stop-gap devices, which were intended to support Bretton Woods, contributed to its demise. |
| Keywords: | Bretton Woods; Federal Reserve; monetary policy; Taylor rule; U.S. Treasury |
| JEL: | F31 F33 N1 |
| Date: | 2014–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1407&r=cba |
| By: | Balteanu, Irina (Bank of Spain); Erce, Aitor (European Stability Mechanism) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a set of stylized facts on the mechanisms through which banking and sovereign distress feed into each other, using a large sample of emerging economies over three decades. We first define “twin crises” as events where banking crises and sovereign defaults combine, and further distinguish between those banking crises that end up in sovereign debt crises, and vice-versa. We then assess what differentiates “single” episodes from “twin” ones. Using an event analysis methodology, we study the behavior around crises of variables describing the balance sheet interconnection between the banking and public sectors, the characteristics of the banking sector, the state of public finances, and the macroeconomic context. We find that there are systematic differences between “single” and “twin” crises across all these dimensions. Additionally, we find that “twin” crises are heterogeneous events: taking into account the proper time sequence of crises that compose “twin” episodes is important for understanding their drivers, transmission channels and economic consequences. Our results shed light on mechanisms surrounding feedback loops of sovereign and banking stress. |
| Keywords: | bank crises; sovereign debt |
| JEL: | E44 F34 G01 H63 |
| Date: | 2014–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:184&r=cba |
| By: | Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D.; Felix Roth (CEPS, Brussels); Lars Lonung (university of Lund, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the evolution of public support for the single European currency, the euro, from 1990 to 2011, focusing on the most recent period of financial and sovereign debt crisis. Exploring a huge database of more than half a million observations covering the 12 original euro area member countries, we find that the ongoing crisis has only marginally reduced citizens’ support for the euro. To determine support for the euro we use two data sets: (1) panel data (bi-annual) to model the impact of the macroeconomic environment on the support for the euro (Dynamic Feasible Generalized Least Squares (DFGLS) estimation) and (2) household data to model the micoeconomic impact of the macro environment and its perception on the support for the euro (probit analysis). Our finding of a only marginally reduced citizens' support for the euro during the financial crisis is in stark contrast to a sharp fall in public trust in the European Central Bank. We conclude that the crisis – at least so far - has hardly dented popular support for the euro while the central bank supplying the single currency has lost sharply in public trust. Thus, the euro appears to have established a credibility of its own – separate from the institutional framework behind the euro. |
| Keywords: | Euro zone countries, Impact and scenario analysis, EU enlargement |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5160&r=cba |
| By: | Robert G. Chamberlain |
| Abstract: | This paper's objective is to provide an improved model of inflation for use in dynamic macroeconomic models. Fisher's equation of exchange is recognized as a causal relationship that shows how the price level responds to changes in aggregate production, the money supply, and the velocity of circulation of money, but those responses are spread over time, rather than instantaneous.The paper offers first a qualitative discussion of what can change in a country to cause the factors in the equation of exchange to change and how those causes might be controlled. It then develops a time-dependent quantitative model of inflation, suitable for use in a simulation, based on delays that are distributed over time.This paper provides equations that can be used to model changes in the price level (i.e. inflation) that result from a variety of changes in a country that affect the values of the country's aggregate production, money supply, and/or velocity of circulation of money. |
| Keywords: | Not applicable. , Modeling: new developments, Macroeconometric modeling |
| Date: | 2014–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:006356:6607&r=cba |
| By: | Markku Lanne (University of Helsinki and CREATES); Jani Luoto (University of Helsinki); Henri Nyberg (University of Helsinki) |
| Abstract: | We propose a new simple model incorporating the implication of the quantity theory of money that money growth and inflation should move one for one in the long run, and, hence, inflation should be predictable by money growth. The model fits postwar U.S. data well, and beats common univariate benchmark models in forecasting inflation. Moreover, this evidence is quite robust, and predictability is found also in the Great moderation period. The detected predictability of inflation by money growth lends support to the quantity theory. |
| Keywords: | Money growth, transfer function model, low-pass filter |
| JEL: | C22 E31 E40 E51 |
| Date: | 2014–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:create:2014-26&r=cba |
| By: | Bezemer, Dirk; Samarina, Anna (Groningen University) |
| Abstract: | The share of domestic bank credit allocated to non-financial business declined significantly in EMU economies since 1990. This paper examines the impact of capital inflows on domestic credit allocation, taking account of (future) EMU membership. The study utilizes a novel data set on domestic credit allocation for 38 countriesover 1990?2011 and data on capital inflows into the bank and non-bank sectors. We estimate panel models controlling for initial financial development, income level, inflation, interest rate, credit market deregulation and current account positions. The results suggest that the decline in the share of credit to non-financial business was significantly larger in (future) EMU economies which experienced more capital inflows into their non-bank sectors. We discuss implications. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:rugsom:14021-gem&r=cba |
| By: | Agnieszka Leszczynska; Katarzyna Hertel |
| Abstract: | Inflation persistence and its role for efficient monetary policy has been given a lot of attention in empirical literature. The main contribution has been made by the Inflation Persistence Network, seeking to assess the level of persistence in the euro zone countries, the influence of the Monetary Union for the inflation persistence heterogeneity within countries and categories of products (see: Altissimo, Mojon, Zaffaroni, 2009). The research concerning New Member States started to appear later on and concentrates mostly on the comparison of the level of inflation persistence among NMS (or individual country analysis), eventually correlating it to the level of inflation (see eg. Franta, Saxa, Smidkova, 2010). Our contribution to the subject is the evaluation of persistence not only in the inflation aggregate in Poland, but also in the disaggregated components of Polish CPI in the aim of discerning sectors which contribute to the largest extent to persistence of headline inflation. We are also interested in assessing whether the adoption of direct inflation targeting in Poland (and the decrease in the targeted value of inflation) contributed to the decrease in persistence and, given the sustained high level of inflation in recent years in Poland, whether it was due to the local increase in the level of persistence (which could make the monetary policy reaction less effective) or to other factors, unrelated to the response of inflation to shocks. The measures of inflation persistence used in the exercise rely solely on time series methods (see: Marques, 2004, Pivetta, Reis, 2007 and Baillie, 1996) and are applied to Polish CPI and its 11 components (CPI ex. food and energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages, processed food, unprocessed food, energy, goods, services, CPI ex. administered prices, administered prices, administered energy, administered services, m-o-m, SA). We avoid structural methods such as New Keynesian Phillips Curve (Gali, Gertler, 1999), which, on one hand, provide information on the sources of persistence (intrinsic or inherited from the developments of economic activity), but on the other are highly dependent on estimating disaggregated output gap. In the first part of the research, to check if the inflation persistence in some sub-categories of CPI is not infinite, we conduct the unit root/stationarity tests. The results of the ADF/PP tests suggest that all of the series are stationary, but the KPSS test casts some uncertainty to those findings in the case of some series, leaving room for the fractional integration analysis, presented in the second part of the research. Meanwhile, still in the framework of linear univariate AR modelling, several persistence measures are calculated in the 9-year rolling windows for all of the series in the aim of assessing and comparing the inflation persistence level and dynamics in the defined sectors. The measures are as follows: sum of autoregressive coefficients, largest autoregressive root, half-life. In this context, the sectors with the highest persistence are core inflation and its components – goods and services as well as administered prices and processed food. There is also evidence of the decrease in persistence, the most apparent in the case of core inflation and its components as well as in the aggregate CPI. The only component where an increase in persistence can be observed are administered services. To check the robustness of the results above (the uncertain results of unit root/stationarity tests inter alia) and to verify the hypothesis that structural changes may have influence on the level of persistence in the context of changing monetary policy environment, the unit root test assuming a potential structural break has been carried on (Zivot-Andrews). The break date was defined endogenously, allowing us to confirm or reject our a priori statements about the possible impact of a shift in monetary policy strategy on the inflation developments. The significance of the break in mean was checked with the Chow stability test. The following results emerged: firstly, in average the level of persistence in the models with break in mean is lower than in models not accounting for the break. However, in case of some of the series the difference is negligible, especially in the second part of the sample. Secondly, in most cases the decrease in persistence is negligible. This is an argument confirming the hypothesis that higher level of inflation in the first part of the sample is contributing to artificially oversizing the persistence measured in the simple AR framework. The largest difference in comparison to the results without the break can be observed once again in the case of core inflation and its components (goods as well as services) and in administered prices. The highest level of persistence can now be stated in the processed food and administered services (in the second part of the sample), the lowest still in the energy sector (also in its administered component) and unprocessed food, which is a result often quoted in the literature (see eg. Bilke, 2005). The second part of the research refers to the discussion and to some empirical evidence (see Gadea, Mayoral, 2006) that inflation process may also be characterised by fractional integration. This assumption leads to a different set of persistence measures than the univariate AR analysis. Firstly, the value of integration (or “memory”) parameter bears information about the duration of a shock, its influence on the series level in the medium and long run and, as such, has been used in our research as one of persistence measures. Both Geweke-Porter-Hudak and local Whittle estimator have been used to evaluate the memory parameter. Secondly, the values of impulse-response function for 3 and 12 months, have been used to illustrate the differences between two alternative specifications and to compare different model specifications. The conclusions stemming from this analysis are the following: firstly, the estimates of the level of persistence confirm in general the results found in the univariate AR analysis. The highest medium and long term persistence can be observed in core inflation and its both components, as well as in the administered prices, the lowest – in the unprocessed food prices, food & beverages and energy (in the case of Whittle estimator). This finding confirms the usefulness of the core inflation aggregate (CPI ex. food and energy) as an inflation measure concentrating mostly on the most persistent CPI components (see eg. Walsh, 2011). Secondly, the rolling sample estimation showed that in case of almost all the series a decrease of level of integration parameter can be observed. However, its scale depends on the series and the estimator of d. The largest changes are detected in case of the overall CPI, CPI ex. administered prices and the prices of goods . The last step consisted of discriminating between the alternative specifications, AR including the break in mean and the fractional integration process, using appropriate statistical tests. In this purpose a test of I(d) vs. I(0) with structural breaks, proposed by Dolado, Gonzalo, Mayoral (2006), has been applied. In the case of series that did not display a statistically significant break in mean an appropriate version of the test above and the EFDF test (Dolado, Gonzalo, Mayoral, 2009) has been used to check whether the hypothesis of fractional integration is acceptable or not. It appears that fractional integration can be a better specification for the series of: CPI, food, energy, CPI ex. administered prices and administered services. Other series are better described as I(0) processes with break in mean (except from administered energy which seems to be an I(0) process) and as such can be modeled within the AR framework. See above See above |
| Keywords: | NA, Monetary issues, Monetary issues |
| Date: | 2013–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:004912:5692&r=cba |