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on Central Banking |
| By: | Jerome Creel (OFCE - Sciences Po, and ESCP Europe); Paul Hubert (OFCE - Sciences Po); Mathilde Viennot (ENS Cachan) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the transmission of ECB monetary policies, conventional and unconventional, to both interest rates and lending volumes for the money market, sovereign bonds at 6-month, 5-year and 10-year horizons, loans inferior and superior to 1M€ to non-financial corporations, cash and housing loans to households, and deposits, during the financial crisis and in the four largest economies of the Euro Area. We first identify two series of ECB policy shocks at the euro area aggregated level and then include them in country-specific structural VAR.The main result is that only the pass-through from the ECB rate to interest rates has been really effective, consistently with the existing literature, while the transmission mechanism of the ECB rate to volumes and of quantitative easing (QE) operations to interest rates and volumes has been null or uneven over this sample. One argument to explain the differentiated pass-through of ECB monetary policies is that the successful pass-through from the ECB rate to interest rates, which materialized as a huge decrease in interest rates during the sample period, had a negative effect on the supply side of loans, and offset itself its potential positive effects on lending volumes |
| Keywords: | Transmission Channels, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Pass-through |
| JEL: | E51 E58 |
| Date: | 2013–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fes:wpaper:wpaper34&r=cba |
| By: | Rogers, John H. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Scotti, Chiara (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Wright, Jonathan H. (Johns Hopkins University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of unconventional monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan on bond yields, stock prices and exchange rates. We use common methodologies for the four central banks, with daily and intradaily asset price data. We emphasize the use of intradaily data to identify the causal effect of monetary policy surprises. We find that these policies are effective in easing financial conditions when policy rates are stuck at the zero lower bound, apparently largely by reducing term premia. |
| Keywords: | Large scale asset purchases; quantitative easing; zero bound; term premium |
| Date: | 2014–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1101&r=cba |
| By: | Correa, Ricardo (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Sapriza, Horacio (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | Sovereign debt crises have been recurrent events over the past two centuries. In recent years, the timing of sovereign crises has coincided or has directly followed banking crises. The link between sovereigns and banks tightened as the contingent liability that the banking sector represents for the sovereign grew, as financial "safety nets" became more common. This chapter analyzes the transmission channels between sovereigns and banks, with a focus on the effect of sovereign distress on bank solvency and financing. It then highlights the notable cost to the real economy of the close connection between sovereigns and banks. Breaking the "feedback loop" between these two sectors should be an important policy priority. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign default; banking crises; government guarantees; financial safety net; bank regulation |
| Date: | 2014–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1104&r=cba |
| By: | Carlson, Mark A. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Wheelock, David C. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | The 1950s are often pointed to as a decade in which the Federal Reserve operated a particularly successful monetary policy. The present paper examines the evolution of Federal Reserve monetary policy from the mid-1930s through the 1950s in an effort to understand better the apparent success of policy in the 1950s. Whereas others have debated whether the Fed had a sophisticated understanding of how to implement policy, our focus is on how the constraints on the Fed changed over time. Roosevelt Administration gold policies and New Deal legislation limited the Fed’s ability to conduct an independent monetary policy. The Fed was forced to cooperate with the Treasury in the 1930s, and fully ceded monetary policy to Treasury financing requirements during World War II. Nonetheless, the Fed retained a policy tool in the form of reserve requirements, and from the mid-1930s to 1951, changes in required reserve ratios were the primary means by which the Fed responded to expected inflation. The inability of the Fed to maintain a credible commitment to low interest rates in the face of increased government spending and rising inflation led to the Fed-Treasury Accord of March 1951. Following the Accord, the external pressures on the Fed diminished significantly, which enabled the Fed to focus primarily on macroeconomic objectives. We conclude that a successful outcome requires not only a good understanding of how to conduct policy, but also a conducive environment in which to operate. |
| Keywords: | Federal Reserve; monetary policy; reserve requirements; Fed-Treasury Accord; inflation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 N12 |
| Date: | 2014–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2014-013&r=cba |
| By: | Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Finn E. Kydland (University of California-Santa Barbara (UCSB)); Roman Šustek (Queen Mary, School of Economics and Finance) |
| Abstract: | Mortgage loans are a striking example of a persistent nominal rigidity. As a result, under incomplete markets, monetary policy affects decisions through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and the value of payments on outstanding debt. Observed debt levels and payment to income ratios suggest the role of such loans in monetary transmission may be important. A general equilibrium model is developed to address this question. The transmission is found to be stronger under adjustable- than fixed-rate contracts. The source of impulse also matters: persistent inflation shocks have larger effects than cyclical fluctuations in inflation and nominal interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages, debt servicing costs, monetary policy, transmission mechanism, housing investment |
| JEL: | E32 E52 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1306&r=cba |
| By: | Jeon, Bang Nam (School of Economics); Lim, Hosung (Economic Research Institute); Wu, Ji (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of foreign banks on the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Korean economy during the period from 2000 to 2012, with a specific focus on the lending behavior of banks with different types of ownership. Using the bank-level panel data of the banking system in Korea, we present consistent evidence on the buffering impact of foreign banks, especially foreign bank branches including U.S. bank branches, on the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Korea from the bank-lending channel perspective during the period of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. One of the underlying reasons for the buffering effect of foreign bank branches is the existence of internal capital markets operated by multinational banks to overcome capital market frictions faced when the foreign banks finance their loans. |
| Keywords: | foreign banks; monetary policy transmission; financial crisis |
| JEL: | E52 G01 G21 |
| Date: | 2014–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2014_007&r=cba |
| By: | Gilchrist, Simon (Department of Economics, Boston University and NBER); Lopez-Salido, J. David (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Zakrajsek, Egon (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the effects of conventional monetary policy on real borrowing costs with those of the unconventional measures employed after the target federal funds rate hit the zero lower bound (ZLB). For the ZLB period, we identify two policy surprises: changes in the 2-year Treasury yield around policy announcements and changes in the 10-year Treasury yield that are orthogonal to those in the 2-year yield. The efficacy of unconventional policy in lowering real borrowing costs is comparable to that of conventional policy, in that it implies a complete pass-through of policy-induced movements in Treasury yields to comparable-maturity private yields. |
| Keywords: | Unconventional monetary policy; LSAPs; forward guidance; term premia; corporate bond yields; mortgage interest rates |
| Date: | 2013–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-03&r=cba |
| By: | Cheolbeom Park (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sookyung Park (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea) |
| Abstract: | Using a typical open macroeconomic model, we show that the UIP puzzle becomes more pronounced when the monetary policy rule is stricter against inflation. To determine the empirical validity of our model, we examine (the Taylor-rule-type) monetary policy rules and the slope coefficient in the regression of future exchange rate returns on interest rate differentials before and after the recent global financial crisis. We find that all economies that reduced the reaction of the policy interest rate to inflation in response to the crisis have positive slope coefficients in the UIP regressions after the crisis. Iceland has put greater weight on inflation in the policy rule after the crisis, and the UIP puzzle has become more severe there after the crisis, which is also consistent with our model. Moreover, economies for which we cannot find clear break evidence for the reaction to inflation in the monetary policy rule do not show a clear directional change in the slope coefficient of the UIP regression. |
| Keywords: | Interest rate, Exchange rate, Monetary policy rule, Uncovered interest |
| JEL: | F31 F41 F47 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iek:wpaper:1404&r=cba |
| By: | Mark Gertler; Peter Karadi |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the nature of the monetary transmission mechanism. To identify policy shocks in a setting with both economic and financial variables, we combine traditional monetary vector autoregression (VAR) analysis with high frequency identification (HFI) of monetary policy shocks. We first show that the shocks identified using HFI surprises as external instruments produce responses in output and inflation consistent with both textbook theory and conventional monetary VAR analysis. We also find, however, that monetary policy surprises typically produce "modest movements" in short rates that lead to "large" movements in credit costs and economic activity. The large movements in credit costs are mainly due to the reaction of both term premia and credit spreads that are typically absent from the standard model of monetary policy transmission. Finally, we show that forward guidance is important to the overall strength of the transmission mechanism. |
| JEL: | E3 E4 E5 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20224&r=cba |
| By: | Kris James Mitchener; Kirsten Wandschneider |
| Abstract: | We examine the first widespread use of capital controls in response to a global or regional financial crisis. In particular, we analyze whether capital controls mitigated capital flight in the 1930s and assess their causal effects on macroeconomic recovery from the Great Depression. We find evidence that they stemmed gold outflows in the year following their imposition; however, time-shifted, difference-in- differences (DD) estimates of industrial production, prices, and exports suggest that exchange controls did not accelerate macroeconomic recovery relative to countries that went off gold and floated. Countries imposing capital controls also appear to perform similar to the gold bloc countries once the latter group of countries finally abandoned gold. Time series analysis suggests that countries imposing capital controls refrained from fully utilizing their newly acquired monetary policy autonomy. |
| JEL: | E61 F32 F33 F41 G15 N1 N2 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20220&r=cba |
| By: | Tuan Anh Phan (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Structural VAR (SVAR) models to analyse VietnamÕs inflation determinants using quarterly data from 1996 to 2012. The results suggest that: (i) the inflation responses to monetary policy shocks are plausible and similar to standard monetary transmission in advanced economies; (ii) the policy interest rate plays an important role to inflation variation, which differs with what have been found in previous studies for Vietnam; and (iii) shocks to output and prices in trading partners have strong effects on inflation in Vietnam, while international oil and rice prices seem not to systematically affect VietnamÕs inflation. Moreover, the State Bank of Vietnam does use monetary policy tools to ease down the inflationary pressure caused by foreign factors. |
| JEL: | E52 E2 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:crwfrp:1404&r=cba |
| By: | De Pooter, Michiel (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Robitaille, Patrice (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Walker, Ian (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Zdinak, Michael (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider whether long-term inflation expectations have become better anchored in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We do so using survey-based measures as well as financial market-based measures of long-term inflation expectations, where we construct the market-based measures from daily prices on nominal and inflation-linked bonds. This paper is the first to examine the evidence from Brazil and Mexico, making use of the fact that markets for longterm government debt have become better developed over the past decade. We find that inflation expectations have become much better anchored over the past decade in all three countries, as a testament to the improved credibility of the central banks in these countries when it comes to keeping inflation low. That said, one-year inflation compensation in the far future displays some sensitivity to at least one macroeconomic data release per country. However, the impact of these releases is small and it does not appear that investors systematically alter their expectations for inflation as a result of surprises in monetary policy, consumer prices, or real activity variables. Finally, long-run inflation expectations in Brazil appear to have been less well anchored than in Chile and Mexico. |
| Keywords: | Inflation targeting; survey expectations; inflation compensation; Nelson-Siegel model; macro news suprises; Brazil; Chile; Mexico |
| Date: | 2014–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1098&r=cba |
| By: | DeGroot, Oliver (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how monetary policy affects the riskiness of the financial sector's aggregate balance sheet, a mechanism referred to as the risk channel of monetary policy. I study the risk channel in a DSGE model with nominal frictions and a banking sector that can issue both outside equity and debt, making banks' exposure to risk an endogenous choice, and dependent on the (monetary) policy environment. Banks' equilibrium portfolio choice is determined by solving the model around a risk-adjusted steady state. I find that banks reduce their reliance on debt finance and decrease leverage when monetary policy shocks are prevalent. A monetary policy reaction function that responds to movements in bank leverage or to movements in credit spreads can incentivize banks to increase their use of debt finance and increase leverage, ceteris paribus, increasing the riskiness of the financial sector for the real economy. |
| Keywords: | Financial intermediation; portfolio choice; debt and equity; monetary policy; risk-adjusted steady state |
| Date: | 2014–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-31&r=cba |
| By: | Tuan Anh Phan (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the output composition of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Australia to those for the Euro area and the United States. Four Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models are used to estimate the contributions of private consumption and investment to output reactions resulting from nominal interest rate shocks for the period 1982Q3-2007Q4. The results suggest that the investment channel plays a more important role than the consumption channel in Australia, while the contributions of the two channels are indistinguishable in the Euro area and the U.S. The difference between Australia and the Euro area comes from differences in housing investment responses, whereas Australia is different to the U.S. mainly because it has a lower share of household consumption in total demand. |
| JEL: | E52 E2 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:crwfrp:1403&r=cba |
| By: | Lainà, Patrizio (Department of Political and Economic Studies, University of Helsinki, Finland); Nyholm, Juho (Department of Political and Economic Studies, University of Helsinki, Finland); Sarlin, Peter (Center of Excellence SAFE at Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany, and RiskLab Finland at IAMSR, Abo Akademi University and Arcada University of Applied Sciences, Finland) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates leading indicators of systemic banking crises in a panel of 11 EU countries, with a particular focus on Finland. We use quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2013Q2, in order to create a large number of macro-financial indicators, as well as their various transformations. We make use of univariate signal extraction and multivariate logit analysis to assess what factors lead the occurrence of a crisis and with what horizon the indicators lead a crisis. We find that loans-to-deposits and house price growth are the best leading indicators. Growth rates and trend deviations of loan stock variables also yield useful signals of impending crises. While the optimal lead horizon is three years, indicators generally perform well with lead times ranging from one to four years. We also tap into unique long time-series of the Finnish economy to perform historical explorations into macro-financial vulnerabilities. |
| Keywords: | leading indicators; macro-financial indicators; banking crisis; signal extraction; logit analysis |
| JEL: | C43 E44 F30 G01 G15 |
| Date: | 2014–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofrdp:2014_014&r=cba |
| By: | Suleyman Hilmi Kal; Nuran Arslaner; Ferhat Arslaner |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to investigate whether the effect of inflation expectations, exchange rate, money supply, industrial production and import prices on inflation depends on business cycle. For this purpose, a two states Markov Switching Auto Regression model with time varying transition probabilities to a generic inflation model is implemented for the period 2003-2013. In the model the states are assigned whether output gap is positive or negative. The inflation forecasting in-sample and out-of-sample is also utilized by adopting mean squared error and Diebold Mariano test to measure explanatory and forecasting power of our model. Our main finding provides that the determinants of inflation have different dynamics during boom periods as compared to recessions. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Output Gap; Markov Switching Autoregressions; Business Cycles |
| JEL: | C32 E30 E31 E37 E58 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bor:wpaper:1419&r=cba |
| By: | Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics (LSE), Centre for Economic Performance (CEP); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)); Gregory Thwaites (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impulse response of key US macro series to the monetary policy shocks identified by Romer and Romer (2004), allowing the response to depend exibly on the state of the business cycle. We find strong evidence that the effects of monetary policy on real and nominal variables are more powerful in expansions than in recessions. The magnitude of the difference is particularly large in durables expenditure and business investment. The effect is not attributable to diferences in the response of fiscal variables or the external finance premium. We find some evidence that contractionary policy shocks have more powerful effects than expansionary shocks. But contractionary shocks have not been more common in booms, so this asymmetry cannot explain our main finding. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric effects of monetary policy, transmission mechanism, recession, durable goods, local projection methods |
| JEL: | E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1301&r=cba |
| By: | Hännikäinen, Jari |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the out-of-sample predictive power of interest rate spreads when the short-term nominal rates have been stuck at the zero lower bound and the Fed has used unconventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that the predictive power of some interest rate spreads have changed since the beginning of this period. In particular, the term spread has been a useful leading indicator since December 2008, but not before that. Credit spreads generally perform poorly in the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy period. However, the mortgage spread has been a robust predictor of economic activity over the 2003–2014 period. |
| Keywords: | business fluctuations; forecasting; interest rate spreads; monetary policy; zero lower bound; real-time data |
| JEL: | C53 E32 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2014–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:56737&r=cba |
| By: | Lin, Li (International Monetary Fund); Tsomocos, Dimitrios P. (University of Oxford); Vardoulakis, Alexandros (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the role that monetary policy plays in the decision to default using a General Equilibrium model with collateralized loans, trade in fiat money and production. Long-term nominal loans are backed by collateral, the value of which depends on monetary policy. The decision to default is endogenous and depends on the relative value of the collateral to face value of the loan. Default results in foreclosure, higher borrowing costs, inefficient investment and a decrease in total output. We show that pre-crisis contractionary monetary policy interacts with Fisherian debt-deflation dynamics and can increase the probability that a crisis occurs. |
| Keywords: | Default; collateral; debt deflation |
| Date: | 2014–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-37&r=cba |
| By: | Vincent Sterk (University College London (UCL), Department of Economics; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)); Silvana Tenreyro (London School of Economics (LSE), Centre for Economic Performance (CEP); Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)) |
| Abstract: | A large literature has documented statistically significant effects of monetary policy on economic activity. The central explanation for how monetary policy transmits to the real economy relies critically on nominal rigidities, which form the basis of the New Keynesian (NK) framework. This paper studies a different transmission mechanism that operates even in the absence of nominal rigidities. We show that in an OLG setting, standard open market operations (OMO) carried by central banks have important revaluation effects that alter the level and distribution of wealth and the incentives to work and save for retirement. Specifically, expansionary OMO lead households to front-load their purchases of durable goods and work and save more, thus generating a temporary boom in durables, followed by a bust. The mechanism can account for the empirical responses of key macroeconomic variables to monetary policy interventions. Moreover, the model implies that different monetary interventions (e.g., OMO versus helicopter drops) can have different qualitative effects on activity. The mechanism can thus complement the NK paradigm. We study an extension of the model incorporating labor market frictions. |
| JEL: | E1 E31 E32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1305&r=cba |
| By: | Malgorzata Sulimierska (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | This paper is an attempt to understand the mechanism which is thought to be an economic growth interaction between Capital Account Liberalization (CAL) and financial instability. The effect of financial capital liberalization is investigated through a discussion of two main channels of economic performance: animal spirits and economic allocative. In the first step, all determinants of the effectiveness of capital controls are analyzed and they seem to be statistically significant. Then, the analysis investigates the causality effect between economic growth, CAL and financial crisis. Empirical evidence from a sample of 88 countries observed between 1995 and 2005 shows statistical evidence for causality effect. Also, the results suggest that CAL has a positive effect on economic growth since capital follows the rise of economic growth. Control for indirect affects, through instability of the financial sector or animal spirit through banking currency crises, have little effect on the CAL process which points to the political nature of the capital control liberalization. |
| Keywords: | Financial Globalisation, Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Crisis, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity |
| JEL: | G01 G18 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:7014&r=cba |
| By: | Judson, Ruth (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Schlusche, Bernd (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Wong, Vivian (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we re-examine the relationship between money and interest rates with a focus on the past few years, when the opportunity cost of M2 has dropped below zero. Until the late 1980s, a stable relationship between monetary aggregates and the opportunity cost of holding money--measured as the spread between the three-month Treasury bill yield and the deposit-weighted average return on M2 assets--existed, and played an integral role in the conduct of monetary policy (e.g., Moore et al.(1990)). This relationship broke down in the early 1990s, when M2 velocity increased beyond the range that could be explained by movements in M2 opportunity cost. As of the mid-2000s, a new relationship was emerging, but was still statistically unstable. In late 2008, the opportunity cost of holding money dropped precipitously and has remained at its zero lower bound. Standard money-demand theory indicates that in such cases the interest elasticity of money demand should rise sharply. Reviewing the evidence to date, we fail to find support for such a rise through 2011, but we observe a notable change in the relationship over the most recent quarters. We conjecture that the more recent shifts, however, could be due to the effects of regulatory and monetary policy changes rather than a fundamental shift in the relationship between money and opportunity cost. Further work is needed to determine the contribution of these regulatory and monetary policy factors. |
| Keywords: | Money demand; M2; zero lower bound; opportunity cost |
| Date: | 2014–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-22&r=cba |
| By: | Gerlach, Stefan. (Central Bank of Ireland); Stuart, Rebecca (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we assemble an annual data set on broad and narrow money, prices, real economic activity and interest rates in Ireland from a variety of sources for the period 1933-2012. We discuss in detail how the data set is constructed and what assumptions we have made in doing so. Furthermore, we perform a VAR analysis to provide some simple empirical evidence on the behaviour of these time series. The results suggest that aggregate supply and inflation shocks play a dominant role in Irish business cycles. |
| Keywords: | Ireland, historical statistics, long time series, business cycles, VAR. |
| JEL: | E3 E4 N14 |
| Date: | 2014–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:wpaper:07/rt/14&r=cba |