nep-cba New Economics Papers
on Central Banking
Issue of 2013‒06‒16
twenty-two papers chosen by
Maria Semenova
Higher School of Economics

  1. Central Banks in Times of Crisis: The FED vs. the ECB By Gros, Daniel; Alcidi, Cinzia; Giovannini, Alessandro
  2. GFC-Robust Risk Management under the Basel Accord using Extreme Value Methodologies By Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin; Michael McAleer; Teodosio Perez Amaral; Paulo Araujo Santos
  3. A Viable Alternative to Basel III Prudential Capital Rules By Micossi,Stefano
  4. Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination instead of separation By Gros, Daniel; Beck, Thorsten
  5. Fiscal consequences of paying interest on reserves By Marco Bassetto; Todd Messer
  6. Monetary Policy and Debt Deflation: Some Computational Experiments By Carl Chiarella; Corrado Di Guilmi
  7. Low interest rate policy and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets By Hoffmann, Andreas; Loeffler, Axel
  8. Monetary Policy Response to Foreign Aid in an Estimated DSGE Model of Malawi By Chance Mwabutwa, Manoel Bittencourt and Nicola Viegi
  9. The effectiveness of the non-standard policy measures during the financial crises: the experiences of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank By Seth B. Carpenter; Selva Demiralp; Jens Eisenschmidt
  10. Rules of Thumb for Banking Crises in Emerging Markets By Paolo Manasse; Roberto Savona; Marika Vezzoli
  11. Loss Distribution Approach for Operational Risk Capital Modelling under Basel II: Combining Different Data Sources for Risk Estimation By Pavel V. Shevchenko; Gareth W. Peters
  12. Banking Union with a Sovereign Virus: The self-serving regulatory treatment of sovereign debt in the euro area By Gros, Daniel
  13. Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability By Swany, Vighneswara
  14. The European Crisis in the Context of the History of Previous Financial Crises By Michael D. Bordo; Harold James
  15. Rational Partisan Theory with fiscal policy and an independent central bank By Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat; Manzano, Carolina
  16. Ready for euro? Empirical study of the actual monetary policy independence in Poland By Łukasz Goczek; Dagmara Mycielska
  17. A fractionally integrated approach to monetary policy and inflation dynamics By Lovcha, Yuliya; Pérez Laborda, Àlex
  18. Convergence and Integration of Banking Sector Regulations in the Euro-Mediterranean area By Ayadi, Rym; Arbak, Emrah; De Groen, Willem Pieter
  19. How did the Financial Crisis affect the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe? By Aslanidis, Nektarios; Demiralp, Selva
  20. What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices By Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian
  21. Deposit Insurance and Orderly Liquidation without Commitment: Can we Sleep Well? By Russell Cooper; Hubert Kempf
  22. Credit Ratings and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt during the Euro Crisis By Joshua Aizenman; Mahir Binici; Michael M. Hutchison

  1. By: Gros, Daniel; Alcidi, Cinzia; Giovannini, Alessandro
    Abstract: Different economic and financial structures require different crisis responses. Different crises also require different tools and resources. The first ‘stage’ of the financial crisis (2007-09) was similar on both sides of the Atlantic, and the response was also quite similar. The second stage of the crisis is unique to the euro area. Increasing financial disintegration within the region has forced the ECB to become the central counterparty for the entire cross-border banking market and to intervene in the sovereign bond market of some stressed countries. The actions undertaken by the European Central Bank (ECB), however, have not always represented the best response, in terms of effectiveness, consistency and transparency. This is especially true for the Securities Markets Programme (SMP): by de facto imposing its absolute seniority during the Greek PSI (private sector involvement), the ECB has probably killed its future effectiveness.
    Date: 2012–07
  2. By: Juan-Angel Jimenez-Martin (Complutense University of Madrid, Spain); Michael McAleer (Complutense University of Madrid, Spain, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and Kyoto University, Japan); Teodosio Perez Amaral (Complutense University of Madrid, Spain); Paulo Araujo Santos (University of Lisbon, Portugal)
    Abstract: In this paper we provide further evidence on the suitability of the median of the point VaR forecasts of a set of models as a GFC-robust strategy by using an additional set of new extreme value forecasting models and by extending the sample period for comparison. These extreme value models include DPOT and Conditional EVT. Such models might be expected to be useful in explaining financial data, especially in the presence of extreme shocks that arise during a GFC. Our empirical results confirm that the median remains GFC-robust even in the presence of these new extreme value models. This is illustrated by using the S&P500 index before, during and after the 2008-09 GFC. We investigate the performance of a variety of single and combined VaR forecasts in terms of daily capital requirements and violation penalties under the Basel II Accord, as well as other criteria, including several tests for independence of the violations. The strategy based on the median, or more generally, on combined forecasts of single models, is straightforward to incorporate into existing computer software packages that are used by banks and other financial institutions.
    Keywords: Value-at-Risk (VaR), DPOT, daily capital charges, robust forecasts, violation penalties, optimizing strategy, aggressive risk management, conservative risk management, Basel, global financial crisis
    JEL: G32 G11 G17 C53 C22
    Date: 2013–05–21
  3. By: Micossi,Stefano
    Abstract: Stefano Micossi argues in this paper that the Basel framework for bank prudential requirements is deeply flawed and that the Basel III revision has failed to correct these flaws, making the system even more complicated, opaque and open to manipulation. In practice, he finds that the present system does not offer regulators and financial markets a reliable capital standard for banks and its divergent implementation in the main jurisdictions of the European Union and the United States has broken the market into special fiefdoms governed by national regulators in response to untoward special interests. The time is ripe to stop tinkering with minor adjustment and revisions in order to rescue the system, because the system cannot be rescued. In response to the current situation, Micossi calls for abandoning reference to risk-weighted assets calculated by banks with their internal risk management models for the determination of banks’ prudential capital, together with the preoccupation with the asset side of banks in correcting for risk exposure. He suggests that the alternative may be provided by a combination of a straight capital ratio and a properly designed deposit insurance system. It is a logical, complete and much less distortive alternative; it would serve better the cause of financial stability as well as the interest of the banks in clear, transparent and level playing field.
    Date: 2013–05
  4. By: Gros, Daniel; Beck, Thorsten
    Abstract: Following the June 2012 European Council decision to place the ‘Single Supervisory Mechanism’ (SSM) within the European Central Bank, the general presumption in the policy discussions has been that there should be ‘Chinese walls’ between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal, in fact, is explicit on this account. On the contrary, however, this paper finds that there is no need to impose a strict separation between these two functions. The authors argue, in fact, that a strict separation of supervision and monetary policy is not even desirable during a financial crisis when the systemic stability of the financial system represents the biggest threat to a monetary policy that aims at price stability. In their view, the key problem hampering the ECB today is that it lacks detailed information on the state of health of the banking system, which is often highly confidential. Chinese walls would not solve this problem. Moreover, in light of the fact that the new, proposed Supervisory Board will be composed to a large extent of representatives of the same institutions that also dominate the Governing Council, the paper finds that it does not make sense to have Chinese walls between two boards with largely overlapping memberships. In addition, it recommends that some members of the Supervisory Boards should be “independents” in order to reduce the tendency of supervisors to unduly delay the recognition of losses.
    Date: 2012–12
  5. By: Marco Bassetto; Todd Messer
    Abstract: We review the role of the central bank's (CB) balance sheet in a textbook monetary model, and explore what changes if the central bank is allowed to pay interest on its liabilities. When the central bank cannot pay interest, away from the zero lower bound its (real) balance sheet is limited by the demand for money. Furthermore, if securities are not marked to market and the central bank holds its bonds to maturity, it is impossible for the central bank to make losses, and it always obtains profits from being a monopoly provider of money. When the option of paying interest on liabilities is allowed, the limit on the CB's balance sheet is lifted. In this case, the CB is free to take on interest rate risk, e.g, by buying long-term securities and financing those purchases with short-term debt that pays the market interest rate. This is a risky enterprise that can lead to additional profits but also to losses. To the extent that losses exceed the profits of the monopoly operations, the CB faces two options: either it is recapitalized by Treasury, or it increases its monopoly profits by raising the inflation tax.
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Carl Chiarella (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney); Corrado Di Guilmi (Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney)
    Abstract: The paper presents an agent based model to study the possible effects of different fiscal and monetary policies in the context of debt deflation. We introduce a modified Taylor rule which includes the financial position of firms as a target. Monte Carlo simulations show that an excessive sensitivity of the central bank to inflation, the output gap and firms? debt can have undesired and destabilising effects on the system, while an active fiscal policy appears to be able to effectively stabilise the economy. The paper also addresses the puzzle of low inflation during stock market booms by testing different behavioural rules for the central bank. We find that, in a context of sticky prices and volatile expectations, endogenous credit can be identified as the main source of the divergent dynamics of prices in the real and financial sector.
    Keywords: Financial fragility; monetary policy; debt deflation; agent based modelling; complex dynamics
    JEL: E12 E31 E44
    Date: 2013–06–01
  7. By: Hoffmann, Andreas; Loeffler, Axel
    Abstract: The paper attempts to shed light on the link between monetary policy in large economies with international currencies (the United States and the euro area) and the use of reserve requirements in emerging markets. Using reserve requirement data for 28 emerging markets from 1998 to 2012 we provide evidence that emerging markets tend to raise reserve requirements and repress financial markets to curb speculative capital inflows when interest rates in the major economies decline. Our finding suggests that the current low interest rate policies of the major economies may have collateral effects on emerging markets by triggering financially repressive policies. --
    Keywords: Reserve Requirements,Financial Repression,Emerging Markets
    JEL: E52 E58
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Chance Mwabutwa, Manoel Bittencourt and Nicola Viegi
    Abstract: This paper estimates a Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of Malawi and uses it to account for short-run monetary policy response to aid inflows between 1980 and 2010. In particular, the paper evaluates the existence of a “Dutch Disease†following an increase in foreign aid and examines the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) reaction to aid inflows under different monetary policy rules. The paper finds strong evidence of “Taylor rule†like response of monetary policy to aid inflows. It also shows that a ‘Dutch Disease’ did not exist in Malawi because aid inflows were found to be associated with currency depreciation and not the expected real currency appreciation. There is also evidence of a low impact of a positive aid shock on currency depreciation and inflation when RBM engages in targeting monetary aggregates than when the authorities use the Taylor rule and incomplete sterilisation.
    Keywords: Taylor rule, DSGE model, Rule-of-Thumb, Spending, Absorption, Foreign exchange Rate
    JEL: C11 C13 E52 E62 F31 F35
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Seth B. Carpenter; Selva Demiralp; Jens Eisenschmidt
    Abstract: A growing number of studies have sought to measure the effects of non-standard policy on bank funding markets. The purpose of this paper is to carry those estimates a step further by looking at the effects of bank funding market stress on the volume of bank lending, using a simultaneous equation approach. By separately modeling loan supply and demand, we determine how non-standard central bank measures affected bank lending by reducing stress in bank funding markets. We focus on the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Our results suggest that non-standard policy measures lowered bank funding volatility. Lower bank funding volatility in turn increased loan supply in both regions, contributing to sustain lending activity. We consider this as strong evidence for a "bank liquidity risk channel", operative in crisis environments, which complements the usual channels of transmission of monetary policy.
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Paolo Manasse; Roberto Savona; Marika Vezzoli
    Abstract: This paper employs a recent statistical algorithm (CRAGGING) in order to build an early warning model for banking crises in emerging markets. We perturb our data set many times and create “artificial” samples from which we estimated our model, so that, by construction, it is flexible enough to be applied to new data for out-of-sample prediction. We find that, out of a large number (540) of candidate explanatory variables, from macroeconomic to balance sheet indicators of the countries’ financial sector, we can accurately predict banking crises by just a handful of variables. Using data over the period from 1980 to 2010, the model identifies two basic types of banking crises in emerging markets: a “Latin American type”, resulting from the combination of a (past) credit boom, a flight from domestic assets, and high levels of interest rates on deposits; and an “Asian type”, which is characterized by an investment boom financed by banks’ foreign debt. We compare our model to other models obtained using more traditional techniques, a Stepwise Logit, a Classification Tree, and an “Average” model, and we find that our model strongly dominates the others in terms of out-of-sample predictive power. JEL: E44, G01, G21 Keywords: Banking Crises, Early Warnings, Regression and Classification Trees, Stepwise Logit
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Pavel V. Shevchenko; Gareth W. Peters
    Abstract: The management of operational risk in the banking industry has undergone significant changes over the last decade due to substantial changes in operational risk environment. Globalization, deregulation, the use of complex financial products and changes in information technology have resulted in exposure to new risks very different from market and credit risks. In response, Basel Committee for banking Supervision has developed a regulatory framework, referred to as Basel II, that introduced operational risk category and corresponding capital requirements. Over the past five years, major banks in most parts of the world have received accreditation under the Basel II Advanced Measurement Approach (AMA) by adopting the loss distribution approach (LDA) despite there being a number of unresolved methodological challenges in its implementation. Different approaches and methods are still under hot debate. In this paper, we review methods proposed in the literature for combining different data sources (internal data, external data and scenario analysis) which is one of the regulatory requirement for AMA.
    Date: 2013–06
  12. By: Gros, Daniel
    Abstract: In many eurozone countries, domestic banks often hold more than 20% of domestic public debt, which is an unsatisfactory situation given that banks are highly leveraged and that sovereign debt is inherently subject to default risk within the euro area. This paper by Daniel Gros finds, however, that the relative concentration of public debt on bank balance sheets is not just a result of the euro crisis, for there are strong additional incentives for banks in some countries to increase their sovereign. His contribution discusses a number of these regulatory incentives – the most important of which is specific to the euro area – and explores ways in which euro area banks can be weaned from massive investments in government bonds.
    Date: 2013–03
  13. By: Swany, Vighneswara
    Abstract: This paper while emphasising the importance of the concept of financial stability in the wake of recent global financial crisis attempts to highlight the significance of the soundness of banking sector in emerging economies where banking sector constitutes a lion’s share in the financial system. Attempt is made to define financial stability in backdrop of the ongoing definition debate for financial stability. Another contribution of this study is that, employing the appropriate key determinants of banking sector soundness, the paper models a basic axiomatic form of banking stability index (BSI) in the context of an emerging economy banking sector.
    Keywords: Financial stability; Instability; Banks and financial institutions, Indicator, Crisis
    JEL: E44 E58 G2 G21 G28
    Date: 2013–05
  14. By: Michael D. Bordo; Harold James
    Abstract: There are some striking similarities between the pre 1914 gold standard and EMU today. Both arrangements are based on fixed exchange rates, monetary and fiscal orthodoxy. Each regime gave easy access by financially underdeveloped peripheral countries to capital from the core countries. But the gold standard was a contingent rule—in the case of an emergency like a major war or a serious financial crisis --a country could temporarily devalue its currency. The EMU has no such safety valve. Capital flows in both regimes fueled asset price booms via the banking system ending in major crises in the peripheral countries. But not having the escape clause has meant that present day Greece and other peripheral European countries have suffered much greater economic harm than did Argentina in the Baring Crisis of 1890.
    JEL: E00 N1
    Date: 2013–06
  15. By: Ferré Carracedo, Montserrat; Manzano, Carolina
    Abstract: The empirical evidence testing the validity of the rational partisan theory (RPT) has been mixed. In this article, we argue that the inclusion of other macroeconomic policies and the presence of an independent central bank can partly contribute to explain this inconclusiveness. This article expands Alesina s (1987) RPT model to include an extra policy and an independent central bank. With these extensions, the implications of RPT are altered signi ficantly. In particular, when the central bank is more concerned about output than public spending (an assumption made by many papers in this literature), then the direct relationship between in flation and output derived in Alesina (1987) never holds. Keywords: central bank, conservativeness, political uncertainty. JEL Classi fication: E58, E63.
    Keywords: Bancs centrals, Política monetària, Política fiscal, 338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió, control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus,
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Łukasz Goczek (Faculty of Economic Sciences); Dagmara Mycielska (Faculty of Economic Sciences)
    Abstract: The aim of the article is to examine the actual degree of Polish monetary policy independence in the context of joining the Eurozone. It is frequently argued that the main cost of the participation in the EMU, or in any other common currency area, is the loss of monetary policy independence. In contrast, the paper raises the question of the actual possibility of such a policy in a small open economy operating within highly liberalized capital flows and highly integrated financial markets like Poland. Confirmation of the hypothesis concerning incomplete actual monetary independence is essential to the analysis of costs of the Polish accession to the EMU. The main hypothesis of the article is verified using a Vector Error-Correction Mechanism model and several parametric hypotheses concerning the speed and asymmetry of adjustment.
    Keywords: empirical analysis, Eurozone, monetary policy independence, monetary union
    JEL: E43 E52 E58 F41 F42 C32
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Lovcha, Yuliya; Pérez Laborda, Àlex
    Abstract: This paper relaxes the standard I(0) and I(1) assumptions typically stated in the monetary VAR literature by considering a richer framework that encompasses the previous two processes as well as other fractionally integrated possibilities. First, a timevarying multivariate spectrum is estimated for post WWII US data. Then, a structural fractionally integrated VAR (VARFIMA) is fitted to each of the resulting time dependent spectra. In this way, both the coefficients of the VAR and the innovation variances are allowed to evolve freely. The model is employed to analyze inflation persistence and to evaluate the stance of US monetary policy. Our findings indicate a strong decline in the innovation variances during the great disinflation, consistent with the view that the good performance of the economy during the 80’s and 90’s is in part a tale of good luck. However, we also find evidence of a decline in inflation persistence together with a stronger monetary response to inflation during the same period. This last result suggests that the Fed may still play a role in accounting for the observed differences in the US inflation history. Finally, we conclude that previous evidence against drifting coefficients could be an artifact of parameter restriction towards the stationary region. Keywords: monetary policy, inflation persistence, fractional integration, timevarying coefficients, VARFIMA. JEL Classification: E52, C32
    Keywords: Política monetària, Anàlisi de sèries temporals, Inflació, 338 - Situació econòmica. Política econòmica. Gestió, control i planificació de l'economia. Producció. Serveis. Turisme. Preus,
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Ayadi, Rym; Arbak, Emrah; De Groen, Willem Pieter
    Abstract: This analysis of regulatory convergence shows that substantial improvements have been made in the southern and eastern Mediterranean countries (SEMCs), yet they still suffer from key weaknesses in deposit insurance, entry obstacles, political interference and the strength of legal rights. In particular, deposit insurance systems in many SEMCs are not explicit, which could lead to uncertainties in the provision of support to banks in case of default. Moreover, most systems do not attempt to align the banks’ incentives in risk-taking with those of taxpayers by implementing risk-based premiums. Another persistent issue is the presence of entry obstacles, with signs of substantial barriers to entry and continued government ownership of banks. The comparison of regulatory systems also highlights that some SEMCs have barely been able to catch up with the strong increase in supervisory independence in EU Mediterranean countries in recent years. While creditor protection remains relatively weak, significant improvements in credit information have occurred since 2003, notably through the establishment of private credit bureaus with universal coverage.
    Date: 2013–03
  19. By: Aslanidis, Nektarios; Demiralp, Selva
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of the financial crisis on the stationarity of real interest rates in the Euro Area. We use a new unit root test developed by Peseran et al. (2013) that allows for multiple unobserved factors in a panel set up. Our results suggest that while short-term and long-term real interest rates were stationary before the financial crisis, they became nonstationary during the crisis period likely due to persistent risk that characterized financial markets during that time. JEL codes: E43, C23. Keywords: Real interest rates, Euro Area, financial crisis, panel unit root tests, cross-sectional dependence.
    Keywords: Tipus d'interès, Anàlisi de dades de panel, Crisi financera global, 2007-2009, Eurozona, 33 - Economia,
    Date: 2013
  20. By: Christiane Baumeister; Lutz Kilian
    Abstract: Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions. First, we address a number of econometric and data issues specific to real-time forecasts of quarterly oil prices. Second, we develop real-time forecasting models not only for U.S. benchmarks such as West Texas Intermediate crude oil, but we also develop forecasting models for the price of Brent crude oil, which has become increasingly accepted as the best measure of the global price of oil in recent years. Third, we design for the first time methods for forecasting the real price of oil in foreign consumption units rather than U.S. consumption units, taking the point of view of forecasters outside the United States. In addition, we investigate the costs and benefits of allowing for time variation in vector autoregressive (VAR) model parameters and of constructing forecast combinations. We conclude that quarterly forecasts of the real price of oil from suitably designed VAR models estimated on monthly data generate the most accurate forecasts among a wide range of methods including forecasts based on oil futures prices, no-change forecasts and forecasts based on regression models estimated on quarterly data.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; International topics
    JEL: Q43 C53 E32
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Russell Cooper; Hubert Kempf
    Abstract: This paper studies the provision of deposit insurance along with liquidation decisions without commitment in an economy with heterogenous households. The analysis considers both the control of the balance sheet of a failing bank and the ex post provision of deposit insurance. Redistribution plays a key role in these decisions. When households are identical, deposit insurance will be provided ex post to reap insurance gains. But deposit insurance will not be provided ex post if it requires a (socially) undesirable redistribution of consumption which outweighs insurance gains. Partial deposit insurance may though have value. Heterogeneity across households also impacts the optimal liquidation decision.
    JEL: E42 E58 G01 G18
    Date: 2013–06
  22. By: Joshua Aizenman; Mahir Binici; Michael M. Hutchison
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of credit rating changes on the sovereign spreads in the European Union and investigates the macro and financial factors that account for the time varying effects of a given credit rating change. We find that changes of ratings are informative, economically important and highly statistically significant in panel models even after controlling for a host of domestic and global fundamental factors and investigating various functional forms, time and country groupings and dynamic structures. Dynamic panel model estimates indicate that a credit rating upgrade decreases CDS spreads by about 45 basis points, on average, for EU countries. However, the association between credit rating changes and spreads shifted markedly between the pre-crisis and crisis periods. European countries had quite similar CDS responses to credit rating changes during the pre-crisis period, but that large differences emerged during the crisis period between the now highly-sensitive GIIPS group and other European country groupings (EU and Euro Area excluding GIIPS, and the non-EU area). We also find a complicated non-linear pattern dependent on the level of the credit rating. The results are robust to the including credit “outlook” or “watch” signals by credit rating agencies. In addition, contagion from rating downgrades in GIIPS to other euro countries is not evident once own-country credit rating changes are taken into account.
    JEL: F30 F34 G01 G24 H63
    Date: 2013–06

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