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on Central Banking |
| By: | Robert J. Shiller (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | It is the 100th anniversary of Irving Fisher’s 1911 book The Purchasing Power of Money. But, more important than that, it is a good time, during the current financial turmoil, to reconsider some of his theories again, in light of current events. And I think that some of his theories about variations in the purchasing power of money are very important today, have been underappreciated, and are worthy of considering anew. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing power of money, Indexation, Indexed bonds, Depression, Recession, Mortgages, Financial crisis |
| JEL: | B22 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1817&r=cba |
| By: | Robert J. Barro; José F. Ursua |
| Abstract: | The potential for rare macroeconomic disasters may explain an array of asset-pricing puzzles. Our empirical studies of these extreme events rely on long-term data now covering 28 countries for consumption and 40 for GDP. A baseline model calibrated with observed peak-to-trough disaster sizes accords with the average equity premium with a reasonable coefficient of relative risk aversion. High stock-price volatility can be explained by incorporating time-varying long-run growth rates and disaster probabilities. Business-cycle models with shocks to disaster probability have implications for the cyclical behavior of asset returns and corporate leverage, and international versions may explain the uncovered-interest-parity puzzle. Richer models of disaster dynamics allow for transitions between normalcy and disaster, bring in post-crisis recoveries, and use the full time series on consumption. Potential future research includes applications to long-term economic growth and environmental economics and the use of stock-price options and other variables to gauge time-varying disaster probabilities. |
| JEL: | E01 E44 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17328&r=cba |
| By: | Oliver D. Hart; Luigi Zingales |
| Abstract: | We study an economy where the lack of a simultaneous double coincidence of wants creates the need for a relatively safe asset (money). We show that, even in the absence of asymmetric information or an agency problem, the private provision of liquidity is inefficient. The reason is that liquidity affects prices and the welfare of others, and creators do not internalize this. This distortion is present even if we introduce lending and government money. To eliminate the inefficiency the government must restrict the creation of liquidity by the private sector. |
| JEL: | E41 E51 G21 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17299&r=cba |
| By: | Driffill, John; Miller, Marcus |
| Abstract: | How and why do financial conditions matter for real outcomes? The ‘workhorse model of money and liquidity’ of Kiyotaki and Moore (2008) shows how--with full employment maintained by flexible prices--shifting credit constraints can affect investment and future aggregate supply. We show that, when the flex-price assumption is dropped, an adverse but temporary liquidity shock can rapidly lead to Keynesian-style demand failure. Optimistic expectations may speed recovery, but simulation results suggest that prompt liquidity infusion by the central bank--i.e. Quantitative Easing--is needed to check prolonged recession. |
| Keywords: | Credit Constraints; Liquidity Shocks; Temporary Equilibrium |
| JEL: | B22 E12 E20 E30 E44 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8511&r=cba |
| By: | Ana Fostel (Dept. of Economics, George Washington University); John Geanakoplos (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We show how the timing of financial innovation might have contributed to the mortgage bubble and then to the crash of 2007-2009. We show why tranching and leverage first raised asset prices and why CDS lowered them afterwards. This may seem puzzling, since it implies that creating a derivative tranche in the securitization whose payoffs are identical to the CDS will raise the underlying asset price while the CDS outside the securitization lowers it. The resolution of the puzzle is that the CDS lowers the value of the underlying asset since it is equivalent to tranching cash. |
| Keywords: | Financial innovation, Endogenous leverage, Collateral equilibrium, CDS, Tranching and asset prices |
| JEL: | D52 D53 E44 G10 G12 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1809r&r=cba |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Angela Redish; Hugh Rockoff |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis of 2008 engulfed the banking system of the United States and many large European countries. Canada was a notable exception. In this paper we argue that the structure of financial systems is path dependent. The relative stability of the Canadian banks in the recent crisis compared to the United States in our view reflected the original institutional foundations laid in place in the early 19th century in the two countries. The Canadian concentrated banking system that had evolved by the end of the twentieth century had absorbed the key sources of systemic risk—the mortgage market and investment banking—and was tightly regulated by one overarching regulator. In contrast the relatively weak, fragmented, and crisis prone U.S. banking system that had evolved since the early nineteenth century, led to the rise of securities markets, investment banks and money market mutual funds (the shadow banking system) combined with multiple competing regulatory authorities. The consequence was that the systemic risk that led to the crisis of 2008 was not contained. |
| JEL: | N20 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17312&r=cba |
| By: | Rudiger Ahrend; Charlotte Moeser; Tommaso Monacelli |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the the distributive impact of macroeconomic shocks is shaped by selected institutions. It uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework with heterogeneous agents and an endogenous collateral constraint. The model is based on the “credit view” of business cycles, where shocks affect the real economy also via their impact on the borrowing capacity of economic agents. In this framework a positive shock to credit spreads, as seen in the recent crisis, redistributes from capital to labour as well as from from equity to bond holders. In contrast, both productivity and inflation shocks redistribute towards capital or equity holders. Distributive impacts are shown to be shaped by institutions. More sophisticated financial markets are found to amplify the redistributive impact of shocks, whereas more flexible wages, a more elastic labour supply, and a more reactive central bank are found to dampen it.<P>Comment les institutions influencent la redistribution liée aux chocs macroéconomiques<BR>L'article analyse comment les institutions influencent la redistribution qui résulte des chocs macroéconomiques. Premièrement, l'article propose un modèle à agents hétérogènes en équilibre général à dynamique stochastique où les contraintes de crédit sont endogènes. Les chocs macroéconomiques sont transmis à l'activité économique directement et indirectement, via les contraintes de crédit des agents. Dans ce modèle, un choc positif sur les spreads de crédits, comme lors de la dernière crise, affecte moins les agents détenant du travail que ceux qui détiennent du capital, et affecte moins les agents qui détiennent des obligations que des actions. Au contraire, les agents détenant du travail et des obligations sont plus vulnérables aux chocs inflationnistes et aux chocs de productivité. Deuxièmement, l'article évalue comment les institutions influencent la redistribution liée aux chocs macroéconomiques. La sophistication des marchés financiers apparaît amplifier la redistribution liée aux chocs macroéconomiques, tandis que la flexibilité des salaires, l'élasticité de l'offre de travail et la réactivité des banques centrales, apparaissent limiter celle-ci. |
| Keywords: | institutions, shocks, income distribution, DSGE, heterogeneous agents, credit frictions, institutions, distribution des revenus, chocs macroéconomiques, agents hétérogènes, modèle d'équilibre général à dynamique stochastique, contraintes de crédit |
| JEL: | D31 D58 E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2011–07–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:884-en&r=cba |
| By: | Greg Kaplan; Giovanni L. Violante |
| Abstract: | A wide body of empirical evidence, based on randomized experiments, finds that 20-40 percent of fiscal stimulus payments (e.g. tax rebates) are spent on nondurable household consumption in the quarter that they are received. We develop a structural economic model to interpret this evidence. Our model integrates the classical Baumol-Tobin model of money demand into the workhorse incomplete-markets life-cycle economy. In this framework, households can hold two assets: a low-return liquid asset (e.g., cash, checking account) and a high-return illiquid asset (e.g., housing, retirement account) that carries a transaction cost. The optimal life-cycle pattern of wealth accumulation implies that many households are "wealthy hand-to-mouth" : they hold little or no liquid wealth despite owning sizeable quantities of illiquid assets. They therefore display large propensities to consume out of additional income. We document the existence of such households in data from the Survey of Consumer Finances. A version of the model parameterized to the 2001 tax rebate episode is able to generate consumption responses to fiscal stimulus payments that are in line with the data. |
| JEL: | D31 D91 E21 H31 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17338&r=cba |
| By: | Nigel Pain; Oliver Röhn |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis revealed flaws in pre-crisis policy frameworks. Particular gaps included the failure of monetary and financial policies to incorporate fully the implications of the rapid pro-cyclical growth in financial leverage and risk-taking, especially across national borders, and the failure of fiscal policy to create sufficient space for policy manoeuvre in event of a crisis. During the crisis, the clear pre-crisis assignments of policy instruments to objectives became blurred, and the effectiveness of separate policy instruments became increasingly interdependent. In the early stages of the exit from the crisis, policy decisions continue to be made in an environment of high uncertainty. In the near term, important policy priorities are to support the recovery, to keep projected inflation close to target and to pursue internationally co-ordinated financial and structural reforms to enhance financial market resilience and strengthen the prospects for macroeconomic stability. In the medium term, the priority is to ensure that the overall policy framework is more robust than prior to the crisis, which may also require institutional reforms. There are good arguments for restoring a clear assignment of policy instruments to policy objectives and policy institutions, but for this to occur it will be especially important that well-founded and internationally consistent reforms to financial regulation and supervision are put in place.<P>Le cadre de la politique économique après la crise<BR>La crise financière a révélé les failles des politiques économiques menées antérieurement. On peut citer en particulier l?incapacité des politiques monétaires et financières à intégrer pleinement les effets du rapide développement procyclique de l?effet de levier et de la prise de risques, y compris à l?échelle internationale; et aussi le fait que la politique budgétaire n?ait pas dégagé une marge suffisante pour pouvoir agir en cas de crise. Pendant la crise, l?affectation claire des instruments de politique aux objectifs s?est estompée et a fait place à une interdépendance croissante des différents instruments. Dans les premiers temps de la sortie de crise, on a continué à prendre des décisions entachées d?une grande incertitude. Dans le court terme, les priorités politiques essentielles sont de soutenir la reprise, maintenir l?anticipation d?inflation proche de l?objectif, ainsi qu?à procéder à des réformes financières et structurelles, coordonnées sur le plan international, qui renforcer la résistance des marchés financiers et améliorer les perspectives de stabilité macroéconomique. Á moyen terme, la priorité est de s?assurer que le cadre global de politique économique soit plus solide qu?avant la crise, ce qui pourrait aussi exiger des réformes institutionnelles. Il y a de bons arguments en faveur du retour à une affectation claire des instruments de politique aux objectifs et aux institutions ; mais cela sera conditionné par le lancement de réformes judicieuses et internationalement compatibles de la réglementation et de la supervision financières. |
| Keywords: | growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, crisis, recovery, financial market policy, croissance, politique budgétaire, politique monétaire, crise, reprise, politique à l'égard des marchés financiers |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E62 G28 |
| Date: | 2011–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:857-en&r=cba |
| By: | Sarlin, Peter (BOFIT); Peltonen, Tuomas A. (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks on a two-dimensional plane as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space and thus allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizon. |
| Keywords: | systemic financial crisis; systemic risk; self-organizing maps; visualisation; prediction; macroprudential supervision |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F01 F37 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_018&r=cba |
| By: | Julian di Giovanni; Andrei A. Levchenko |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new mechanism by which country size and international trade affect macroeconomic volatility. We study a multi-country, multi-sector model with heterogeneous firms that are subject to idiosyncratic firm-specific shocks. When the distribution of firm sizes follows a power law with an exponent close to -1, the idiosyncratic shocks to large firms have an impact on aggregate output volatility. We explore the quantitative properties of the model calibrated to data for the 50 largest economies in the world. Smaller countries have fewer firms, and thus higher volatility. The model performs well in matching this pattern both qualitatively and quantitatively: the rate at which macroeconomic volatility decreases in country size in the model is very close to what is found in the data. Opening to trade increases the importance of large firms to the economy, thus raising macroeconomic volatility. Our simulation exercise shows that the contribution of trade to aggregate fluctuations depends strongly on country size: in the largest economies in the world, such as the U.S. or Japan, international trade increases volatility by only 1.5-3.5%. By contrast, trade increases aggregate volatility by some 15-20% in a small open economy, such as Denmark or Romania. |
| JEL: | F12 F15 F41 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17335&r=cba |
| By: | Athanasios Geromichalos; Ina Simonovska |
| Abstract: | We study optimal asset portfolio choice in a two-country search-theoretic model of monetary exchange. We allow assets not only to represent claims on future consumption, but also to serve as means of payment. Assuming foreign assets trade at a cost, we characterize equilibria in which different countries' assets arise as media of exchange in different types of trades. More frequent trading opportunities at home result in agents holding proportionately more domestic over foreign assets. Consequently, agents have larger claims to domestic over foreign consumption goods. Moreover, foreign assets turn over faster than home assets because the former have desirable liquidity properties, but unfavorable returns over time. Our mechanism offers an answer to a long-standing puzzle in international finance: a positive relationship between consumption and asset home bias, coupled with higher turnover rates of foreign over domestic assets. |
| JEL: | E44 F15 F36 G11 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17331&r=cba |
| By: | Paul van den Noord |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a stylised model in which either a savings glut or an exchange rate peg in emerging economies drives down the level of interest rates in advanced economies and, when it hits the zero-rate bound, produces a welfare loss. It shows that structural reform in the pursuit of better social protection and financial markets in the emerging economies reduces this negative welfare spillover. An extension of the model with the short-run dynamics of exchange-rate and capital movements shows that adverse asymmetric shocks can lead to a race to the bottom of interest rates. In that case the global coordination of monetary policies is welfare enhancing for both groups of economies. However, the coordinated equilibrium is unstable, which indicates that strong pre-commitment arrangements are required to maintain coordination. This disadvantage diminishes if structural reform is adopted to reduce the volatility in capital flows.<P>Les déséquilibres mondiaux, l'arrimage des taux de changes et les mouvements de capitaux : examen à la loupe<BR>Ce document présente un modèle simplifié dans lequel une surabondance de l’épargne ou un mécanisme d’arrimage des taux de change dans des économies émergentes fait baisser le niveau des taux d’intérêt dans les économies avancées et aboutit, lorsque l’on se heurte à la limite des taux nuls, à une perte de bien-être. Il montre que les réformes structurelles visant à améliorer la protection sociale et les marchés de capitaux dans les économies émergentes réduisent ces retombées négatives sur le bien-être. Un élargissement du modèle tenant compte de la dynamique de court terme des taux de change et des mouvements de capitaux montre que des chocs asymétriques négatifs peuvent déboucher sur une surenchère à la baisse des taux d’intérêt. Dans ce cas, une coordination mondiale des politiques monétaires améliore le bien-être des deux groupes d’économies. Toutefois, l’équilibre résultant de cette coordination est instable, ce qui indique la nécessité de solides engagements préalables visant à maintenir la coordination. Ce désavantage diminue en cas d’adoption de réformes structurelles permettant de réduire la volatilité des mouvements de capitaux. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates, capital flows, global imbalances, taux de change, flux de capitaux, déséquilibres mondiaux |
| JEL: | E52 F31 F59 |
| Date: | 2011–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:856-en&r=cba |
| By: | Andreas Fuster; Benjamin Hebert; David Laibson |
| Abstract: | How does an economy behave if (1) fundamentals are truly hump-shaped, exhibiting momentum in the short run and partial mean reversion in the long run, and (2) agents do not know that fundamentals are hump-shaped and base their beliefs on parsimonious models that they fit to the available data? A class of parsimonious models leads to qualitatively similar biases and generates empirically observed patterns in asset prices and macroeconomic dynamics. First, parsimonious models will robustly pick up the short-term momentum in fundamentals but will generally fail to fully capture the long-run mean reversion. Beliefs will therefore be characterized by endogenous extrapolation bias and pro-cyclical excess optimism. Second, asset prices will be highly volatile and exhibit partial mean reversion—i.e., overreaction. Excess returns will be negatively predicted by lagged excess returns, P/E ratios, and consumption growth. Third, real economic activity will have amplified cycles. For example, consumption growth will be negatively auto-correlated in the medium run. Fourth, the equity premium will be large. Agents will perceive that equities are very risky when in fact long-run equity returns will co-vary only weakly with long-run consumption growth. If agents had rational expectations, the equity premium would be close to zero. Fifth, sophisticated agents—i.e., those who are assumed to know the true model—will hold far more equity than investors who use parsimonious models. Moreover, sophisticated agents will follow a counter-cyclical asset allocation policy. These predicted effects are qualitatively confirmed in U.S. data. |
| JEL: | D84 E32 G12 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17301&r=cba |
| By: | Clovis Kerdrain |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new empirical results linking financial and housing wealth to household consumption for the United States, Japan and the euro area. The results suggest that there are important cross-country differences in how wealth, especially housing wealth, affects consumption. They further demonstrate that it can be important to take into account wealth effects on consumption in short-term forecasting exercises, a point which is particularly well illustrated in relation to the recent economic crisis. In addition, conditional projections underline the importance of asset price developments and wealth in determining US savings over the medium term.<P>Quelle est l'importance du patrimoine pour expliquer la consommation des ménages au cours de la crise récente ? : Une étude empirique appliquée aux États-Unis, au Japon et à la zone euro<BR>Cette étude fournit de nouveaux résultats empiriques établissant un lien entre la consommation des ménages et leur patrimoine financier et immobilier aux États-Unis, au Japon et pour la zone euro. Les résultats suggèrent que l'importance des effets-richesse dans la consommation varie sensiblement entre les pays, en particulier en ce qui concerne la richesse immobilière. Ils montrent également qu'il peut être important de prendre en compte ces effets-richesse dans les exercices de prévision de la consommation à court terme, ce que la période de crise récente permet d'illustrer. De plus, des projections conditionnelles soulignent l’importance de l’évolution des prix d’actifs et de la richesse dans la détermination de l’épargne aux Etats-Unis sur le moyen terme. |
| Keywords: | housing wealth, effet de richesse, Patrimoine immobilier, patrimoine financier, Équation de consommation |
| JEL: | C22 D12 E21 E44 |
| Date: | 2011–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:869-en&r=cba |
| By: | Hatcher, Michael C. (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a detailed survey of the economic literature comparing inflation and price-level targeting as macroeconomic stabilisation policies. Its contributions relative to past surveys are as follows. First, rather than focusing on any particular topic, the survey gives equal emphasis to all key areas of the literature. Second, the paper discusses 'new results' in several areas, including the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates; the long-term impact of price-level targeting; and financial market considerations. Finally, the survey is written in such a way that it can be understood by economists with little or no prior knowledge of price-level targeting and the related academic literature. The survey concludes that whilst price-level targeting has a number of potential advantages, further research is needed to accurately quantify its costs and benefits and to test robustness. Potential obstacles to the introduction of price-level targeting in practice include: concerns about its credibility; lack of public understanding; and lack of prior experience with price-level targeting regimes. |
| Keywords: | Price-level targeting; inflation targeting; macroeconomic stabilisation |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2011/22&r=cba |
| By: | Linda Rousová; Paul van den Noord |
| Abstract: | OECD work prior to the financial crisis suggested that real prices in several housing markets had become vulnerable to a change in financial and economic conditions, with the risk of a subsequent downturn becoming increasingly possible, as proved to be the case. With corrections in many, but not all, housing markets having now occurred, and, in some countries, prices having rebounded rapidly in the low interest rate environment, the issue of whether prices are now close to another turning point is again of considerable policy interest. As a means of addressing this issue, probit models have been estimated to provide an indication of possible peaks and troughs in real house prices in 2011 and 2012, using data for 20 OECD countries. Predictions based on these models have been reported in OECD Economic Outlook, No. 89 and this paper provides information on the methodology underpinning these predictions.<P>Comment prévoir les fluctuations des prix réels des logements ?<BR>Les travaux menés par l’OCDE avant la crise financière laissaient entendre que les prix réels sur plusieurs marchés du logement ne sauraient résister à une modification des conditions financières et économiques, alors que le risque que leur vulnérabilité n’entraîne une crise économique devenait de plus en plus probable, ainsi que les événements ultérieurs l’ont d’ailleurs démontré. Les prix s’étant désormais rétablis sur un grand nombre, bien que pas sur la totalité, des marchés du logement, et ayant même, dans certains pays, enregistré une remontée rapide favorisée par la faiblesse des taux d’intérêt, la question de savoir s’ils font aujourd’hui face à un nouveau changement de cap mobilise fortement l’intérêt des gouvernements. Pour tenter de répondre à cette question, des modèles probits, dont on estime qu’ils pourraient fournir une indication des fluctuations possibles des prix réels des logements en 2011 et 2012, ont été sollicités et utilisés avec des données concernant 20 pays de l’OCDE. Les prévisions établies sur la base de ces modèles ont été reproduites dans les Perspectives économiques de l'OCDE, n°89, et le présent document donne des informations sur la méthodologie employée à cet effet. |
| Keywords: | house prices, business cycles, housing bubbles, cycle économique, prix des logements, bulles immobilière |
| JEL: | E32 F42 R31 |
| Date: | 2011–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:882-en&r=cba |
| By: | Robert Price; Thai-Thanh Dang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a method for adjusting structural budget balances for asset price cycles and presents estimates of structural budget balances corrected for house-price and equity-price cycles for OECD countries. The traditional cyclically adjusted budget balance indicator, which is the basis for measuring structural or underlying budget balances, does not adjust for the effects of cyclical fluctuations in asset prices. This implies that, by default, asset price related effects on revenues are included in the structural budget measure. That can be misleading for policy makers where asset price shifts prove to be temporary, leading to pro-cyclical fiscal action, especially where policy makers cut tax rates or increase spending in response to unexpected revenue buoyancy. The paper first presents econometric estimates of tax revenue elasticities measuring the response of the major tax categories to house-price and equity-price movements. It then uses these elasticities to adjust revenues for the effects of asset price cycles measured in terms of deviations from “fundamental” and smoothed asset prices. To the extent that asset price movements are independent of, and uncorrelated with, the output cycle, the adjustment can be added to the conventional structural balance to create an asset-adjusted structural balance. The analysis is retrospective, but an important consideration has been to improve the identification of cyclical revenue fluctuations as they occur, or as they are incorporated into fiscal projections, and to be able to recognise the source of revenue “surprises”.<P>L'ajustement des soldes budgétaires en fonction des cycles de prix des actifs<BR>Le présent document expose une méthode d?ajustement des soldes budgétaires structurels en fonction des cycles de prix des actifs et donne des estimations des soldes budgétaires structurels corrigés des fluctuations conjoncturelles des prix des logements et des prix des actions pour les pays de l?OCDE. L?indicateur traditionnel des soldes budgétaires corrigés des influences conjoncturelles, qui sert à mesurer les soldes structurels ou sous-jacents, ne s?ajuste pas en fonction des effets des fluctuations conjoncturelles des prix des actifs. Il en résulte que, par défaut, les effets des prix des actifs sur les recettes sont pris en compte dans la mesure du budget structurel. Cela peut induire en erreur les décideurs publics en cas de variations temporaires des prix des actifs, conduisant à une action budgétaire pro-cyclique, surtout lorsque des mesures d?allégement d?impôt ou d?augmentation de dépenses sont prises en présence d?une abondance inattendue de recettes. Ce document présente tout d?abord des estimations économétriques des élasticités des recettes fiscales mesurant la réaction des principales catégories d?impôt aux variations des prix des logements et des prix des actions. Ces élasticités sont ensuite utilisées pour ajuster les recettes en fonction des effets des cycles de prix des actifs mesurés en termes d?écarts par rapport aux prix « fondamentaux » ou lissés. Dans la mesure où les fluctuations des prix des actifs sont indépendantes du cycle de la production, ou sans lien avec ce dernier, l?ajustement peut être ajouté au solde structurel classique afin d?obtenir un solde structurel corrigé des fluctuations des prix des actifs. L?analyse est rétrospective, mais l?on s?est attaché tout particulièrement à mieux identifier les fluctuations conjoncturelles des recettes au fur et à mesure de leur survenue, ou de leur incorporation dans les projections budgétaires, et à parvenir à reconnaître l?origine de recettes « surprenantes ». |
| Keywords: | automatic stabilisers, house prices, budget balances, cyclical adjustment, tax elasticities, asset cycles, equity prices, capital taxes, stabilisateurs automatiques, prix des logements, solde budgétaire, ajustement conjoncturel, élasticités fiscales, cycles des actifs, prix des actions, impôts sur le capital |
| JEL: | E32 E62 H2 H62 |
| Date: | 2011–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:868-en&r=cba |
| By: | Kick, Thomas; Pfingsten, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Banking supervision requires regular inspection and assessment of financial institutions. In Germany this task is carried out by the central bank ('Deutsche Bundesbank, BBK') in cooperation with the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority ('Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, BaFin'). In accordance with the Basel II approach, quantitative and qualitative information is used. It is still an open question whether supervisors provide information, based on on-site inspections, which is not known from the numbers already, or simply duplicate the quantitative information, or even overrule it by their impressions gained through visits. In our analysis we use a unique dataset on financial institutions' risk profiles, i.e. the banking supervisors' risk assessment. Methodologically, we apply a partial proportional odds model to explain the supervisor's ordinal grading by a purely quantitative CAMEL covariate vector, which is standard in many bank rating models, and we also include the bank inspector's qualitative risk assessment into the model. We find that not only the quantitative CAMEL vector is clearly important for the final supervisory risk assessment; it is, indeed, also qualitative information on a bank's internal governance, ICAAP, interest rate risk, and other qualitative risk components that plays an equally important role. Moreover, we find evidence that supervisors have become more conservative in their final judgement at the beginning of the financial crisis, i.e. the supervisory assessment seems to be more forward-looking than the mere numbers. This result underpins the importance of bank-individual on-site risk assessments. -- |
| Keywords: | Bank rating,banking supervision,generalized ordered logit |
| JEL: | C35 G21 G32 L50 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdp2:201109&r=cba |
| By: | Luiz de Mello; Pier Carlo Padoan; Linda Rousová |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses empirically whether or not current account reversals have permanent growth effects and the role of macroeconomic policies in this process. The methodology developed in de Mello, Padoan and Rousova (2010) to identify a chronology of current account reversals is applied to the real growth rate of GDP of more than 100 countries during the period 1971-2007. We use ordered probit models to show that current account reversals associated with improvements in external positions increase the probability of a sustained rise in the rate of growth of GDP (growth acceleration) beyond those generated by real exchange rate effects. Current account reversals associated with a deterioration of external positions make impending GDP accelerations less likely. The macroeconomic policy stance prevailing at the time of current account reversals also matters. High budget deficits thwart the positive effect of a current account improvement on the probability of a growth acceleration. By contrast, a monetary tightening in association with a current account deterioration makes an impending growth acceleration more likely. This paper improves our understanding of how macroeconomic policies help countries maximise the growth payoff of current account improvements.<P>Effet sur la croissance des inversions de balance courante : le rôle des politiques macroéconomiques<BR>Ce document examine de manière empirique si les inversions de balance courante ont ou non des effets permanents sur la croissance et quel rôle les politiques macroéconomiques jouent dans ce processus. La méthodologie développée par de Mello, Padoan et Rousova (2010) pour déterminer une chronologie des inversions de balance courante est appliquée aux taux de croissance réelle du PIB de plus de 100 pays sur la période 1971-2007. Des modèles probit sont utilisés pour montrer que les inversions de balance courante associées à des améliorations des positions extérieures augmentent la probabilité d’une hausse soutenue du taux de croissance du PIB (accélération de la croissance). Des inversions de balance courante associées à une dégradation des positions extérieures rendent moins probable une accélération imminente du PIB. L’orientation des politiques macroéconomiques au moment des inversions est également importante. Des déficits budgétaires élevés neutralisent l’effet positif d’un redressement de la balance courante sur la probabilité d’une accélération de la croissance. A l’inverse, un durcissement monétaire associé à une dégradation de la balance courante rend plus probable une accélération imminente de la croissance. Cette étude permet de mieux comprendre comment les politiques macroéconomiques peuvent aider les pays à maximiser les gains de croissance découlant d’améliorations de la balance courante. |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, monetary policy, current account reversals, trend GDP growth, politique budgétaire, politique monétaire, inversions de balance courante, croissance du PIB tendanciel |
| JEL: | C32 C35 F32 F43 |
| Date: | 2011–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:871-en&r=cba |
| By: | Carol Bertaut; Laurie Pounder DeMarco; Steve Kamin; Ralph Tryon |
| Abstract: | The "global saving glut" (GSG) hypothesis argues that the surge in capital inflows from emerging market economies to the United States led to significant declines in long-term interest rates in the United States and other industrial economies. In turn, these lower interest rates, when combined with both innovations and deficiencies of the U.S. credit market, are believed to have contributed to the U.S. housing bubble and to the buildup in financial vulnerabilities that led to the financial crisis. Because the GSG countries for the most part restricted their U.S. purchases to Treasuries and Agency debt, their provision of savings to ultimately risky subprime mortgage borrowers was necessarily indirect, pushing down yields on safe assets and increasing the appetite for alternative investments on the part of other investors. We present a more complete picture of how capital flows contributed to the crisis, drawing attention to the sizable inflows from European investors into U.S. private-label asset-backed securities (ABS), including mortgage-backed securities and other structured investment products. By adding to domestic demand for private-label ABS, substantial foreign acquisitions of these securities contributed to the decline in their spreads over Treasury yields. Through a combination of empirical estimation and model simulation, we verify that both GSG inflows into Treasuries and Agencies, as well as European acquisitions of ABS, played a role in contributing to downward pressures on U.S. interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Capital movements ; Financial crises ; Asset-backed financing ; Interest rates |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1028&r=cba |
| By: | Scott J. Dressler (Department of Economics and Statistics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the long-run and short-run (i.e. along the transition path) welfare implications of permanent changes in inflation in an environment with essential money and perfectly competitive markets. The model delivers a monetary distribution that matches moments of the distribution seen in the US data. Although there is potential for wealth redistribution to deliver welfare gains from inflation, the (total) costs of 10 percent inflation relative to zero is over 7 percent of consumption. While these results suggest a dominating real-balance effect of inflation, a politico-economic analysis concludes that the prevailing (majority rule) inflation rate is above the Friedman Rule. |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Welfare; Transitions; Voting |
| JEL: | E40 E50 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vil:papers:16&r=cba |
| By: | Karlygash Kuralbayeva |
| Abstract: | The paper examines implications of inflation persistence for business cycle dynamics following terms of trade shock in a small oil producing economy, under inflation targeting and exchange rate targeting regimes. It is shown that due to the 'Walters critique' effect, the country's adjustment paths are slow and cyclical if there is a significant backward-looking element in the inflation dynamics and the exchange rate is fixed. It is also shown that such cyclical adjustment paths are moderated if there is a high proportion of forward-looking price setters in theh economy, so that when the Phillips curve becomes completely forward-looking cyclicality in adjustment paths disappears and the response of the real exchange rate becomes hump-shaped. In contrast, with an independent monetary policy, irrespective of the degree of inflation persistence, flexible exchange rate allows to escape severe cycles, which results in a smooth response of the real exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | inflation inertia, inflation targeting, exchange rate targeting, Phillips curve, oil shocks, small open economy |
| JEL: | E32 F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:063&r=cba |
| By: | Diego Moccero; Shingo Watanabe; Boris Cournède |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of inflation in the United States, Japan, the euro area and the United Kingdom, focusing on the role of resource utilisation, inflation expectations, inflation persistence and imported inflation. It also includes a cross-sectional analysis that focuses on inflation dynamics over episodes of persistent large slack and low inflation. The main findings of this analysis are as follows: i) During the crisis, the stability of inflation expectations has held up actual inflation, so far preventing the huge slack in resource utilisation from leading to a disinflationary spiral; ii) Disinflationary pressures also seem to have been moderated by the flattening of the Phillips curve in an environment of persistent large economic slack and low inflation; iii) The link between long-term inflation expectations and past inflation outcomes has become weaker over time and appears to have almost disappeared recently; iv) The estimated Phillips curves coupled with the November 2010 projection of explanatory variables presented in the OECD Economic Outlook No. 88 and excluding the recent period of strong commodity prices point to inflation remaining low but positive, except in Japan where deflation is expected to continue past end-2012; v) The inflation outlook and associated risks argue for withdrawing monetary policy accommodation gradually in the short term, while being vigilant about the build up of broad-based inflationary pressures over the medium term.<P>Quels sont les facteurs d'inflation dans les économies de l'OCDE<BR>Cet article présente une analyse empirique des déterminants de l'inflation aux États-Unis, au Japon, dans la zone euro et au Royaume-Uni, mettant l'accent sur le rôle de l'utilisation des ressources, les anticipations d'inflation, la persistance de l'inflation et l'inflation importée. Il propose également une analyse de la dynamique de l'inflation au cours des épisodes durables de nette sous-utilisation des capacités et de faible inflation. Les principales conclusions de cette analyse sont les suivantes: i) Pendant la crise, la stabilité des anticipations d'inflation a empêché que le sous-emploi des ressources ne conduise à une spirale déflationniste, ii) Il semble également que les pressions désinflationnistes aient été modérées par l'aplatissement de la courbe de Phillips dans un contexte de faiblesse économique persistante et de basse inflation; iii) L’influence des derniers chiffres d’inflation sur les attentes d'inflation à long terme s'est affaiblie au fil du temps et semble avoir presque disparu récemment; iv) Des prévisions fondées sur les courbes de Phillips estimées et les projections des Perspectives Économiques de l’OCDE n°88 de novembre 2010 excluant la période récente de hausse des prix des produits de base suggèrent une inflation restant faible, mais positive d’ici à fin 2012, sauf au Japon où la déflation devrait se poursuivre au moins jusqu’au-delà de cette période; v) La configuration des risques à court terme et à moyen terme plaide pour un retrait progressif de l’expansion monétaire en demeurant vigilant quant au risque d’apparition de pressions inflationnistes à moyen terme. |
| Keywords: | United Kingdom, Japan, United States, disinflation, euro area, Phillips curves, core and headline inflation, inflation forecast, inflation expectations, resource slack, Royaume-Uni, Japon, États-Unis, zone Euro, désinflation, courbes de Phillips, fondement et base de l'inflation, anticipations d'inflation, fluctuation des ressources |
| JEL: | C53 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2011–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:854-en&r=cba |
| By: | Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem; Kamil, Herman; Villegas-Sanchez, Carolina |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence on the real effects of credit supply shocks utilizing a new firm-level database from six Latin American countries between 1990 to 2005. Holding creditworthiness constant through foreign currency debt exposure, we compare investment undertaken by domestic exporters to that of foreign-owned exporters, where the latter's exposure to the liquidity shock is lower. We find that foreign-owned exporters increase investment by 15 percentage points relative to domestic exporters only when the currency crisis occurs simultaneously with a banking crisis. These findings suggest that the key factor hindering investment during financial crises is the decline in credit supply. |
| Keywords: | bank lending; exports; foreign ownership; growth; short-term dollar debt; twin crisis |
| JEL: | E32 F15 F36 O16 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8543&r=cba |
| By: | Inoue, Atsushi; Rossi, Barbara |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the power to detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across different window sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability. |
| Keywords: | estimation window; forecast evaluation; predictive ability testing |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8542&r=cba |
| By: | Patrick Slovik; Boris Cournède |
| Abstract: | The estimated medium-term impact of Basel III implementation on GDP growth is in the range of -0.05 to -0.15 percentage point per annum. Economic output is mainly affected by an increase in bank lending spreads as banks pass a rise in bank funding costs, due to higher capital requirements, to their customers. To meet the capital requirements effective in 2015 (4.5% for the common equity ratio, 6% for the Tier 1 capital ratio), banks are estimated to increase their lending spreads on average by about 15 basis points. The capital requirements effective as of 2019 (7% for the common equity ratio, 8.5% for the Tier 1 capital ratio) could increase bank lending spreads by about 50 basis points. The estimated effects on GDP growth assume no active response from monetary policy. To the extent that monetary policy will no longer be constrained by the zero lower bound, the Basel III impact on economic output could be offset by a reduction (or delayed increase) in monetary policy rates by about 30 to 80 basis points.<P>Impact macro-économique de Bâle III<BR>L'impact estimé à moyen terme de la mise en conformité avec les règles de Bâle III sur la croissance du PIB est de l'ordre de -0,05 à -0,15 point de pourcentage par an. L’effet sur l’activité économique provient principalement de ce que les banques augmentent leurs marges de crédit afin de compenser la hausse de leurs coûts de financement provoquée par le durcissement des exigences de capital. Pour répondre aux exigences de fonds propres en 2015 (4,5% pour le ratio d'actions ordinaires, 6% pour le ratio de fonds propres de base), les banques devraient augmenter leurs marges de crédit d'environ 15 points de base en moyenne. Les exigences de capital en vigueur à compter de 2019 (7% pour le ratio d'actions ordinaires, 8,5% pour le ratio de fonds propres de base) pourraient augmenter les marges de crédit d’environ 50 points de base. Les effets estimés sur la croissance du PIB n’incorporent aucune réponse de la politique monétaire. Pour autant que la politique monétaire ne se heurte plus au plancher zéro des taux nominaux, l'impact de Bâle III sur la production économique pourrait être compensé par une réduction (ou un retard avant l’augmentation) des taux de la politique monétaire d'environ 30 à 80 points de base. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, bank, financial intermediaries, interest rates, Basel accord, Basel III, bank regulation, bank lending, bank capital requirements, politique monétaire, banque, taux d'intérêt, intermédiaires financiers, Accord de Bâle, Bâle III, Réglementation bancaire, Crédit bancaire, Réglementation des fonds propres bancaires |
| JEL: | E52 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2011–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:844-en&r=cba |
| By: | Trevor A. Reeve; Robert J. Vigfusson |
| Abstract: | Commodity futures prices are frequently criticized as being uninformative for forecasting purposes because (1) they seem to do no better than a random walk or an extrapolation of recent trends and (2) futures prices for commodities often trace out a relatively flat trajectory even though global demand is steadily increasing. In this paper, we attempt to shed light on these concerns by discussing the theoretical relationship between spot and futures prices for commodities and by evaluating the empirical forecasting performance of futures prices relative to some alternative benchmarks. The key results of our analysis are that futures prices have generally outperformed a random walk forecast, but not by a large margin, while both futures and a random walk noticeably outperform a simple extrapolation of recent trends (a random walk with drift). Importantly, however, futures prices, on average, outperform a random walk by a considerable margin when there is a sizeable difference between spot and futures prices. |
| Keywords: | Commodity futures ; Futures market ; Prices ; Economic forecasting |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1025&r=cba |
| By: | Ivan Werning |
| Abstract: | I study monetary and fiscal policy in liquidity trap scenarios, where the zero bound on the nominal interest rate is binding. I work with a continuous-time version of the standard New Keynesian model. Without commitment, the economy suffers from deflation and depressed output. I show that, surprisingly, both are exacerbated with greater price flexibility. I examine monetary and fiscal policies that maximize utility for the agent in the model and refer to these as optimal throughout the paper. I find that the optimal interest rate is set to zero past the liquidity trap and jump discretely up upon exit. Inflation may be positive throughout, so the absence of deflation is not evidence against a liquidity trap. Output, on the other hand, always starts below its efficient level and rises above it. I then study fiscal policy and show that, regardless of parameters that govern the value of “fiscal multipliers” during normal or liquidity trap times, at the start of a liquidity trap optimal spending is above its natural level. However, it declines over time and goes below its natural level. I propose a decomposition of spending according to “opportunistic” and “stimulus” motives. The former is defined as the level of government purchases that is optimal from a static, cost-benefit standpoint, taking into account that, due to slack resources, shadow costs may be lower during a slump; the latter measures deviations from the former. I show that stimulus spending may be zero throughout, or switch signs, depending on parameters. Finally, I consider the hybrid where monetary policy is discretionary, but fiscal policy has commitment. In this case, stimulus spending is typically positive and increasing throughout the trap. |
| JEL: | E0 H5 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17344&r=cba |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana; Keith Kuester; Juan Rubio-Ramírez |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow for time-varying volatility. We then feed these processes into an otherwise standard New Keynesian business cycle model calibrated to the U.S. economy. We find that fiscal volatility shocks have an adverse effect on economic activity that is comparable to the effects of a 25-basis-point innovation in the federal funds rate. |
| JEL: | C11 E10 E30 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17317&r=cba |
| By: | Filippo di Mauro (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Fabio Fornari (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Dario Mannucci (Prometeia, Via G. Marconi 43, 40122 Bologna, Italy.) |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that changes in the equity price and volatility of individual firms (measures that approximate the definition of 'granular shock' given in Gabaix, 2010) are key to improve the predictability of aggregate business cycle fluctuations in a number of countries. Specifically, adding the return and the volatility of firm-level equity prices to aggregate financial information leads to a significant improvement in forecasting business cycle developments in four economic areas, at various horizons. Importantly, not only domestic firms but also foreign firms improve business cycle predictability for a given economic area. This is not immediately visible when one takes an unconditional standpoint (i.e. an average across the sample). However, conditioning on the business cycle position of the domestic economy, the relative importance of the two sets of firms - foreign and domestic - exhibits noticeable swings across time. Analogously, the sectoral classification of the firms that in a given month retain the highest predictive power for future IP changes also varies significantly over time as a function of the business cycle position of the domestic economy. Limited to the United States, predictive ability is found to be related to selected balance sheet items, suggesting that structural features differentiate the firms that can anticipate aggregate fluctuations from those that do not help to this aim. Beyond the purely forecasting application, this finding may enhance our understanding of the underlying origins of aggregate fluctuations. We also propose to use the cross sectional stock market information to macro-prudential aims through an economic Value at Risk. JEL Classification: C53, C58, F37, G15. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle forecasting, granular shock, international linkages. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111366&r=cba |
| By: | Petar Vujanovic |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the empirical determinates of foreign currency reserve holdings across a panel of around 130 countries between 1980 and 2008. The paper builds on the existing literature by adopting a panel error-correction model specification and by extending the sample to include the recent period that saw a continuing acceleration in the accumulation of reserves in many countries. The results of the analysis suggest that the levels of trade and domestic financial depth are robust determinates of the level of reserves in the long run, particularly over the past decade and a half. The estimations also find that changes in GDP, the exchange rate regime, exchange rate volatility, and financial openness can all have permanent one-off effects on the level of reserves. Furthermore, country fixed effects are found to be significant, suggesting that time-invariant country specific factors are important in explaining the variance in reserve holdings across countries. Nevertheless, several countries stick out in terms of holding reserves well in excess of that implied by these empirical results, above all in recent years. Among these countries, China and Japan are particularly notable, especially when the deviation from average behaviour is expressed in dollar terms.<P>Comprendre la récente accélération de l'accumulation de réserves internationales<BR>Ce document est consacré à l’étude des déterminants économétriques des réserves de change de 1980 à 2008 à partir d’un panel de quelque 130 pays. Il s’appuie sur les publications existantes en adoptant un modèle à correction d’erreurs sur données de panel et en élargissant l’échantillon de façon à couvrir la période récente qui a été marquée par une accélération continue de l’accumulation de réserves dans de nombreux pays. Les résultats de l’analyse tendent à montrer que le volume des échanges commerciaux et la profondeur du système financier national sont des déterminants robustes du volume des réserves sur le long terme, en particulier depuis une quinzaine d’années. Les estimations permettent aussi de constater que des changements en matière de PIB, de régime de change, d’instabilité des cours de change ou d’ouverture financière sont autant de facteurs ponctuels qui peuvent produire un effet permanent sur le volume des réserves. En outre, on observe des effets fixes significatifs spécifiques aux pays, ce qui suggère que des facteurs spécifiques à des pays et invariants dans le temps sont importants pour expliquer la variance des réserves de change entre différents pays. Néanmoins, plusieurs pays continuent à détenir des réserves très supérieures à ce qu’impliquent ces résultats économétriques, surtout ces dernières années. Parmi ces pays, on retiendra en particulier la Chine et le Japon, surtout lorsque l’on exprime en dollars l’écart que présentent ces pays avec le comportement moyen. |
| Keywords: | trade, current account, crisis, central banks, reserves, foreign currency, money supply, sudden stop, balance courante, banque centrale, crise, échanges commerciaux, réserves, changes, masse monétaire, arrêt brutal |
| JEL: | E44 E58 F21 F31 F36 F41 N10 O24 |
| Date: | 2011–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:866-en&r=cba |
| By: | Kumiharu Shigehara; Paul Atkinson |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews key policy messages and warnings about developments in the run-up to the global financial and economic crisis that began in mid-2007 which are contained in the main publications of the IMF, the OECD and the BIS and discuss issues relevant to strengthening their surveillance activities for making appropriate policy recommendations and issuing warnings in order to prevent such crisis in the future. The review finds that the institutions did not recognize the need for monetary tightening in a timely way for either the US or the UK, two epicentres of the global crisis. While some concerns were expressed at early stages regarding financial market policies and developments, generally when risks seemed abstract or remote, warnings were too few, received too little emphasis in key editorial sections likely to attract attention and were rarely followed up. Important issues, notably the weak capital base and lack of resilience of the banking systems in the two countries, were missed almost entirely. In the light of this review, suggestions for improving surveillance are offered, relating to (1) strengthening analytical frameworks; (2) improving the current institutional context in which surveillance takes place; (3) staff and management issues; and (4) dissemination and communication. In addition, the need to re-design international frameworks for surveillance to integrate more fully new “major players” in the global economy and financial systems is briefly discussed.<P>Surveillance internationale : Les leçons de la crise financière et économique mondiale<BR>La présente étude passe en revue les principaux messages et avertissements qui ont paru dans les grandes publications du FMI, de l'OCDE et de la BRI avant le déclenchement de la crise financière et économique mondiale au milieu de 2007, et examine les améliorations qui pourraient être apportées sur plusieurs plans aux activités de surveillance de ces trois institutions, afin que leurs recommandations et mises en garde puissent prévenir une nouvelle crise de ce type dans l'avenir. S'agissant de la politique monétaire, il apparaît que les institutions en question ne se sont pas rendu compte à temps de la nécessité d'un resserrement, aussi bien pour les États-Unis que pour le Royaume-Uni, les deux épicentres de la crise mondiale. Des préoccupations se sont fait jour assez tôt concernant la régulation et l'évolution des marchés financiers, en général lorsque les risques semblaient abstraits ou éloignés, mais les avertissements ont été rares, ils n'ont pas été suffisamment mis en relief dans les éditoriaux où ils auraient pu attirer l'attention, et ils n'ont guère été suivis d'effet. Plusieurs questions importantes, notamment la faiblesse de la base de capital et le manque de résilience des systèmes bancaires dans les deux pays considérés, ont été pratiquement ignorées. A la lumière de ce bilan, plusieurs améliorations sont proposées concernant 1) les cadres analytiques de la surveillance ; 2) le contexte institutionnel ; 3) les questions de personnel et d'organisation ; et 4) la diffusion et la communication des informations. En outre, la nécessité de revoir les mécanismes internationaux de surveillance afin d'y faire une plus large place aux nouveaux “acteurs majeurs” de l'économie mondiale et des systèmes financiers est brièvement évoquée. |
| Keywords: | financial markets, OECD, United Kingdom, house prices, United States, monetary policy, bubbles, financial regulation, financial innovation, IMF, financial crisis, securitisation, BIS, prudential policy, structured products, surveillance, marchés financiers, OCDE, Royaume-Uni, États-Unis, politique monétaire, bulle, innovation financière, prix immobiliers, FMI, crise financière, titrisation, régulation financière, BRI, politique prudentielle, produits structurés, surveillance |
| JEL: | E44 E58 E65 F33 F34 G1 G2 N20 |
| Date: | 2011–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:860-en&r=cba |
| By: | Viktors Ajevskis; Kristine Vitola |
| Abstract: | We evaluate implications of inflation targeting versus fixed exchange rate regime for the UK, Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, i.e. seven EU non-euro area countries. To this end, we estimate a small open economy DSGE model and simulate a model under estimated structural parameters and different sets of policy parameters. The results obtained are compared in terms of inflation, output gap and interest rate volatility. For inflation targeting countries, a policy switch to fixed exchange rate would entail 3–6 times higher inflation volatility. In the Baltic economies, a policy change to inflation targeting with fully flexible exchange rate would amplify inflation volatility 2–4 times, whereas the existing price stabilisation and exchange rate fluctuations within the ERM II bands would entail 3–6 times more volatile inflation. Policy simulations thus show evidence that in all the countries the existing monetary rule guarantees more stable inflation and output than under alternative regimes. |
| Keywords: | DSGE, small open economy, fixed exchange rate, inflation targeting, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | C11 C3 C51 D58 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2011–07–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:201102&r=cba |
| By: | Joscha Beckmann |
| Abstract: | Although the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP) is rich in controversy, the relative contribution of prices and nominal exchange rates to real exchange rate movements which restore PPP disequilibria has rarely been put under any close scrutiny. Using monthly data from 1973:01 to 2009:12 from the USA, UK, Germany, France and Japan, this paper as a fi rst step applies a cointegrated VAR framework to test for stationary real exchange rates and linear adjustments in prices and nominal exchange rates. As a second step, ESTR error correction models are fi tted to test whether nonlinear error correctional behaviour characterizes the data. The results clearly indicate that the nominal exchange rate is responsible for the nonlinear mean reverting behaviour in real exchange rates and also mainly drives overall adjustment. Applying dynamic stochastic simulations based on the estimated models, this study also confi rms recent results that the half-life times of real exchange rate shocks are signifi cantly smaller than the consensus benchmark of three to fi ve years. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing power parity; cointegration; nonlinear vector error correction |
| JEL: | E44 F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0272&r=cba |
| By: | Jimborean, R. |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to complete our understanding of the relationship between changes in nominal effective exchange rates and prices in the new EU member states. We investigate the exchange rate pass-through to import, producer and consumer prices for ten Central and Eastern European countries with quarterly data from January 1996 to June 2010. In a first step, the pass-through estimates are derived from a dynamic panel data model, through the generalized method of moments. A statistically significant exchange rate pass-through to import prices is found, while no statistically significant exchange rate pass-through is estimated to consumer and producer prices. We further investigate whether exchange-rate pass-through estimates have declined in response to a change in inflation environment and find evidence of such decline only for import prices, both in the short run and the long run. In a second step, we proceed to an individual analysis, country by country, and find support for an increased heterogeneity in the exchange rate pass-through estimates. We equally test for the stability of the estimated. |
| Keywords: | inflation and prices, exchange rate pass-through, GMM, international topics. |
| JEL: | C33 E31 E42 E52 F31 O52 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:341&r=cba |
| By: | Benjamin M. Tabak; Daniel O. Cajueiro; Alexandre B. Sollaci |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the forecast precision of the Functional Signal plus Noise (FSN), the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DL), and a random walk model. The empirical results suggest that both outperform the random walk at short horizons (one-month) and that the the FSN model outperforms the DL at the one-month forecasting horizon. The conclusions provided in this paper are important for policy makers, fixed income portfolio managers, financial institutions and academics. |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:247&r=cba |
| By: | Blot, Christophe (Centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po); Le Bayon, Sabine (Centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po); Antonin, Céline (Centre de recherche en économie de Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Après une progression du PIB de 1 % au deuxième trimestre, la croissance a ralenti en zone euro au second semestre 2010. Ce tassement s’explique essentiellement par le faux rebond de l’investissement et l’atonie de la consommation privée. En 2010, les écarts entre les trajectoires de croissance ont continué à se creuser inexorablement en zone euro. Aux difficultés des pays périphériques (Grèce, Irlande, Portugal et Espagne) s’oppose la réussite allemande. Alors que l’Allemagne affiche une croissance annuelle du PIB de 3,5 % en 2010, effaçant une grande partie de la chute d’activité observée au cours de la crise, les pays périphériques ont adopté en 2010 des plans de restriction budgétaire sans précédent qui ont entravé la reprise en pesant essentiellement sur les ménages (baisse des salaires dans la fonction publique, hausse des taux de TVA, baisse des prestations sociales,...). Si le spectre de l’éclatement de la zone euro semble avoir été repoussé, les écarts de performance s’amplifieraient en 2011 et 2012. Du côté des finances publiques, la restriction sera généralisée en 2011 et 2012, ce qui affaiblira la demande interne mais également la contribution de la demande externe – par un effet d’entraînement – à la croissance. Concernant la demande interne, la consommation privée et l’investissement pâtiront des plans d’austérité, en particulier dans les pays les plus fragiles. Le Portugal devrait entrer en récession en 2011, et la Grèce connaîtrait une troisième année consécutive de récession. L’accélération de l’inflation liée à l’indice énergétique et le durcissement subséquent de la politique monétaire de la BCE devraient également grever la consommation des ménages. L’activité serait donc insuffisante pour permettre d’entamer une réduction significative du chômage qui toucherait encore 10 % de la population active en 2011 et ne baisserait que de 0,1 point en 2012. |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:sciepo:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h61p0io30&r=cba |
| By: | Agustín Maravall Herrero (Banco de España); Domingo Pérez Cañete (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The recent economic crisis has altered the dynamics of economic series and, as a consequence, introduced uncertainty in seasonal adjustment of recent years. This problem was discussed in recent workshops at the European Central Bank and at Eurostat in the context of adjustment of the Euro Area Industrial Production (EPI) series. Because a seasonal component is unobserved and undefi ned, it is diffi cult to compare results from different adjustment methods. Within the regARIMA model-based approach, however, a framework for systematic analysis and comparison of results is indeed present. The EPI series is analyzed under the TRAMO-SEATS framework. The purpose of the analysis is not to compare alternative methods, but to show how the results of the model-based analysis can be exploited at the identifi cation, diagnostics, and inference stages of modeling, and in the selection of an appropiate seasonal adjustment (and underlying model). Despite the uncertainty induced by the crisis (and the revisions to the unadjusted data), the automatic procedure, with ramps to capture the spectacular 2008 drop in the series, provides excellent and stable results. |
| Keywords: | Time series analysis, Seasonal adjustment, Regression-ARIMA models, Filtering and smoothing, program TSW |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C87 |
| Date: | 2011–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1116&r=cba |
| By: | Avouyi-Dovi, S.; Idier, J. |
| Abstract: | We consider the channel consisting in transferring the credit risk associated with refinancing operations between financial institutions to market participants. In particular, we analyze liquidity and volatility premia on the French government debt securities market, since these assets are used as collateral both in the open market operations of the ECB and on the interbank market. In our time-varying transition probability Markov-switching (TVTP-MS) model, we highlight the existence of two regimes. In one of them, which we refer to as the conventional regime, monetary policy neutrality is verified; in the other, which we dub the unconventional regime, monetary policy operations lead to volatility and liquidity premia on the collateral market. The existence of these conventional and unconventional regimes highlights some asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Collateral, Liquidity, Volatility, French bond market. |
| JEL: | G10 C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:339&r=cba |
| By: | Niels-Jakob Harbo Hansen; Peter Welz |
| Abstract: | A stable relationship between monetary policy rates and bank lending and deposit rates faced by consumers and companies is essential for the effective transmission of monetary policy decisions. This paper studies how changes in the policy rate set by the Swedish central bank, the Riksbank, have been transmitted to money market rates and, in turn, to retail rates before and during the financial turmoil that erupted in summer 2007. Historically, the Riksbank has been successful in effectively controlling money market rates, but during the financial turmoil the transmission of impulses from the policy rate to money market rates appears to have been weakened by elevated and volatile risk premia, although these increased less in Sweden than in the euro area, United Kingdom and United States. The pass-through from money market rates to retail rates is found to have been complete, but sluggish, before the turmoil. Pass-through was also faster into short-term loan rates for non-financial companies than for households. During the turmoil the pass-through from money market to lending rates has been preserved at short maturities, but not at longer maturities. Lack of access to long-term funding has likely played a role.<P>Le canal de transmission des taux d'intérêt pendant la crise financière mondiale : le cas de la Suède<BR>L’existence d’une relation stable entre les taux d’intérêt fixés par les autorités monétaires et les taux que les banques offrent aux ménages et aux entreprises est essentielle pour la transmission des décisions de politique monétaire. Cet article étudie comment les changements de taux d’intérêt de la banque centrale de Suède, la Riksbank, se répercutent sur les taux du marché monétaire, puis sur les taux proposés par les institutions financières à leurs clients, avant et pendant la crise financière démarrant en 2007. Le contrôle de la Riksbank sur les taux du marché monétaire, fort au court des dernières années, apparaît affaibli par l’importance et la volatilité des primes de risque depuis l’été 2007, même si ces dernières ont moins augmenté en Suède que dans d’autres pays de l’OCDE. La transmission des variations des taux du marché monétaire aux taux offerts par les institutions financières semble avoir été complète avant la crise, bien que lente. Elle était aussi plus rapide pour les prêts de court terme aux entreprises non-financières que pour les prêts aux ménages. Pendant la crise, le canal de transmission des taux du marché monétaire aux taux offerts par les institutions financières a été préservé pour les courtes maturités, mais affaibli pour les longues maturités. Le manque d’accès à des financements de long terme a pu jouer un rôle. |
| Keywords: | Sweden, interest rate pass-through, financial crisis, monetary transmission, Suède, crise financière, canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire, transmission des taux d’intérêt |
| JEL: | E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2011–04–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:855-en&r=cba |
| By: | Takero Doi; Takeo Hoshi; Tatsuyoshi Okimoto |
| Abstract: | We construct quarterly series of the revenues, expenditures, and debt outstanding for Japan from 1980 to 2010, and analyze the sustainability of the fiscal policy. We pursue three approaches to examine the sustainability. First, we calculate the minimum tax rate that stabilizes the debt to GDP ratio given the future government expenditures. Using 2010 as the base year, we find that the government revenue to GDP ratio must rise permanently to 40%-47% (from the current 33%) to stabilize the debt to GDP ratio. Second, we estimate the response of the primary surplus when the debt to GDP ratio increases. We allow the relationship to fluctuate between two “regimes” using a Markov switching model. In both regimes, the primary surplus to GDP ratio fails to respond positively to debt, which suggests the process is explosive. Finally, we estimate a fiscal policy function and a monetary policy function with Markov switching. We find that the fiscal policy is “active” (the tax revenues do not rise when the debt increases) and the monetary policy is “passive” (the interest rate does not react to the inflation rate sufficiently) in both regimes. These results suggest that the current fiscal situation for the Japanese government is not sustainable. |
| JEL: | E62 H62 H63 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17305&r=cba |
| By: | He, Dong (BOFIT); Wang, Honglin (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | China has a dual-track interest-rate system: bank deposit and lending rates are regulated while money and bond rates are market-determined. The central bank also imposes an indicative target, which may not be binding at all times, for total credit in the banking system. We develop and calibrate a theoretical model to illustrate the conduct of monetary policy within the framework of dual-track interest rates and a juxtaposition of price- and quantity-based policy instruments. We model the transmission of monetary policy instruments to market interest rates, which, together with the quantitative credit target in the banking system, ultimately are the means by which monetary policy affects the real economy. The model shows that market interest rates are most sensitive to changes in the benchmark deposit interest rates, significantly responsive to changes in the reserve requirements, but not particularly reactive to open market operations. These theoretical results are verified and supported by both linear and GARCH models using daily money and bond market data. Overall, the findings of this study help us to understand why the central bank conducts monetary policy in China the way it does, using a combination of price and quantitative instruments with differing degrees of potency in terms of their influence on the cost of credit. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; People’s Bank of China; dual-track interest rates; interest rate liberalization |
| JEL: | C25 C32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_021&r=cba |
| By: | Zhang, Yanbing (BOFIT); Hua, Xiuping (BOFIT); Zhao, Liang (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | How do monetary policy variables affect housing prices? In this paper we apply a non-linear modelling approach, the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Moving Average with eXogenous inputs (NAR-MAX), to investigate determinants of housing prices in China over the period 1999:01 to 2010:06. The NARMAX approach has an advantage over prevailing methods in that it automatically selects linear and non-linear forms of variables and the numbers of corresponding lags according to statistical properties. Both linear and non-linear estimation results identify a number of key monetary and price variables, including most notably mortgage rate, producer price, broad money supply and real effective exchange rate. Meanwhile, some key real economic variables such as income are not independently significant. Our findings should be helpful in understanding the formation of housing prices in China and will provide some valuable insights on how to use monetary policies to manage asset prices. |
| Keywords: | housing prices; monetary policy; NARMAX; China |
| JEL: | C32 C67 E47 E52 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_017&r=cba |
| By: | Zhang, Zhichao (BOFIT); Shi, Nan (BOFIT); Zhang, Xiaoli (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | We build an optimising framework to analyse a class of economies that adopt an ECU-type basket currency while in transition to increased flexibility of the exchange rate regime. Instead of conventional basket pegging, such an economy uses an ECU-type currency index as a benchmark for monitoring and assessing exchange rate movements. This provides an anchoring device for the nations exchange rate regime and allows the home currencys exchange rate to fluctuate. Under the assumption that the central bank is chiefly interested in maintaining stability, the optimal structure of the basket currency is based on its contribution to minimizing the volatility of the countrys external account. A currency invariance index is applied to capture the effect of the countrys exit from exclusive linkage with the US dollar. The approach is illustrated by Chinese exchange rate policy. We find it advisable and viable for China to form a basket currency with a diversified portfolio of currencies. While the portfolios weighting scheme could favour the dollar, euro and Japanese yen, we show that the composition of the basket is open to a wide range of possibilities. Moreover, contrary to general fears, there is considerable potential for China to engage in currency diversification, which will not necessarily affect the dollars position. |
| Keywords: | basket currency; currency diversification; China |
| JEL: | E58 F31 P45 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_019&r=cba |
| By: | ´He, Xinhua (BOFIT); Qin, Duo (BOFIT); Liu, Yimeng (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The familiar claim of Chinese currency manipulation is generally asserted without reference to empirical evidence. To investigate the legitimacy of the claim, we ask if the undervalued misalignment found in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) over the past decade has any recent historical precedents. Four cases are examined: the Japanese yen, the Deutsche mark, the Singapore dollar and the Taiwan dollar. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the REER of the four currencies are obtained using quarterly data from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. Our estimates suggest that there are precedents to the recent misalignment of the RMB in terms of magnitude, duration or breadth of currency coverage, and that a net build-up in foreign asset does not necessarily result in currency misalignment. In addition to finding little empirical justification for the claim of Chinese currency manipulation, we note that REER misalignment runs a risk of propagating inflation in the home economy. |
| Keywords: | REER misalignment; RMB; yen; D-mark; Singapore dollar; Taiwan dollar |
| JEL: | C23 F31 F41 O57 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_022&r=cba |
| By: | Tatiana Lysenko; Geoff Barnard |
| Abstract: | South Africa’s macroeconomic framework has served the economy well, but should be strengthened to make the economy more resilient to external shocks. Enhancing the credibility of the inflation target would provide the monetary authorities with more space for flexibility in the face of exogenous shocks. To ease the pressure on the exchange rate emanating from high commodity prices and sentiment-driven surges in capital inflows, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank should be more rapid, and the removal of remaining controls on capital outflows should be accelerated. Fiscal policy has been generally sound, but should be tighter and more counter-cyclical during the economic upswings to prevent a structural deterioration of the fiscal balance and to create more room for manoeuvre during downturns. A fiscal rule that institutionally constrains discretionary policy may facilitate this task. It would also help ensure that the strong public commitment to address major social challenges, improve access to public services and promote long-term growth by investing in physical infrastructure and human capital can be sustained. In conjunction with a greater effort to identify and tax economic rents from natural resource extraction, consideration should be given to establishing a mechanism to manage commodity price windfalls. This paper relates to the 2010 Economic Survey of South Africa (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/southafrica).<P>Renforcer le dispositif de la politique macroéconomique en Afrique du Sud<BR>Le dispositif de politique macroéconomique de l’Afrique du Sud a produit de bons résultats, mais il convient de le renforcer pour assurer une plus grande résistance aux chocs externes. Améliorer la crédibilité de l’objectif d’inflation donnerait aux autorités monétaires plus de latitude pour réagir aux chocs exogènes. Afin de réduire la pression à la hausse du taux de change, résultant du prix élevé des matières premières et d’entrées de capitaux spéculatifs, il faudrait que la banque centrale laisse augmenter plus rapidement ses réserves de change et que la suppression des contrôles des mouvements de capitaux encore en vigueur s’accélère. La politique budgétaire a généralement été saine, mais devrait être resserrée et devenir plus anticyclique pendant les phases de reprise, pour éviter une dégradation structurelle du solde budgétaire et élargir la marge de manoeuvre disponible pendant les récessions. Une règle budgétaire faciliterait la tâche en soumettant les mesures discrétionnaires à une contrainte institutionnelle. Elle aiderait à garantir aussi le respect durable du ferme engagement de l’État de relever les grands défis sociaux, d’améliorer l’accès aux services publics et de promouvoir la croissance à long terme en investissant dans les infrastructures physiques et le capital humain. Tout en s’efforçant davantage de recenser et de taxer les rentes économiques liées à l’exploitation des ressources naturelles, on pourrait envisager d’instituer un mécanisme de gestion des recettes exceptionnelles tirées des matières premières. Ce document se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de l’Afrique du Sud 2010 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/afriquedusud). |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, exchange rates, capital flows, monetary policy, fiscal rules, exchange rate policy, economy, inflation, inflation targeting, South Africa, interest rates, politique budgétaire, taux de change, politique monétaire, règles budgétaires, économie, inflation, taux d'intérêt, ciblage de l’inflation, Afrique du Sud, politique de taux de change |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E50 E52 E58 E61 E62 F32 |
| Date: | 2011–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:847-en&r=cba |
| By: | Frait, Jan; Gersl, Adam; Seidler, Jakub |
| Abstract: | The Czech Republic had experienced a credit boom similar to those in other converging economies in the pre-crisis years. Nevertheless, the consequences of this credit boom were limited as was the impact of the global crisis on domestic financial institutions. This paper describes the developments in the Czech banking sector and explains how the tough macroeconomic environment in the Czech Republic acted as a strong tool of macroprudential policy. It concludes that although it is difficult to tame credit booms in small converging economies, a concerted set of microprudential and macroprudential measures, including monetary and fiscal ones, may ensure some success. |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,Debt Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5771&r=cba |
| By: | Deryugina, Elena B. (BOFIT); Ponomarenko, Alexey A. (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | We examine the drivers behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia using Bayesian vector autoregressive model with sign restrictions on impulse response functions. We identify two types of structural innovations: loan supply shock and monetary stance shock. We find that contractionary shocks of both types contributed significantly and in the roughly equal measure to the decrease of bank lending after the Lehman Brothers collapse. |
| Keywords: | loan supply; Bayesian VAR; sign restrictions; financial crisis; Russia |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E51 |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2011_020&r=cba |
| By: | Margit Molnár; Dániel Holló |
| Abstract: | Apparent characteristics of the Hungarian banking market such as large profits and high margins suggest weak competitive pressures. Weak competition in turn, may reduce efficiency in a lack of pressures to converge to marginal cost and to stimulate managerial efforts to reduce X-inefficiency. Such conditions call for a gauging of efficiency of banks to better assess what is needed for a competitive and well-functioning banking system. Although the level of efficiency is only an indirect measure of competitive pressures, it may be superior to other ones available for international comparison. Concentration ratios are only a very imperfect measure, moreover, the Hungarian banking market structure with one larger and several somewhat smaller banks of similar sizes would suggest an even playing field. In fact, different market segments show very different degrees of concentration and several conditions for a competitive market are missing. Moreover, interest margins, particularly on mortgage loans are high in international comparison and the downward stickiness and lagged reaction of retail lending rates to money market rates also suggests weak competitive pressures. In a lack of readily available data to obtain mark-ups, which would be a better measure of competition than concentration measures or interest margins, this paper estimates cost efficiency scores that allow for grasping the size of competitive pressures indirectly. Cost efficiency is estimated in the EU 25 context given that cross-border competition can be important in some market segments and that cross-border lending is significant in Hungary. The paper uses the stochastic frontier analysis with a Fourier-flexible specification of the cost function and a time-varying decay model. A specific feature of the methodology is that bank lending is corrected for non-performing loans. This way, the categorising of banks that boost their loan portfolio by excessive risk-taking - i.e. produce large amounts of bad loans - as efficient can be partly avoided. The results show that in Hungary, bank efficiency is not particularly high in either European or regional comparison. Competition could be the major push for efficiency gains and the paper lists a series of measures that could be adopted to boost competitive pressures.<p> This paper relates to the 2010 Economic Survey of Hungary.<P>Les banques hongroises sont-elles efficientes ?<BR>Les caractéristiques apparentes du marché bancaire hongrois, comme l'importance des bénéfices et des marges financières, évoquent un manque de pressions concurrentielles. Cette faiblesse de la concurrence peut elle-même réduire l'efficience de ce marché, faute de pressions incitant à converger vers le coût marginal et à stimuler les efforts des dirigeants pour réduire l?inefficience-X. Cette situation invite à une évaluation de l'efficience des banques afin de mieux mesurer les conditions nécessaires à l?existence d'un système bancaire concurrentiel et fonctionnant bien. Bien que le niveau de l'efficience ne soit qu'un indicateur indirect des pressions concurrentielles, il présente peut-être plus d?intérêt que d'autres mesures disponibles pour effectuer des comparaisons internationales. Les ratios de concentration ne sont en effet qu'un instrument très imparfait ; de plus la structure du marché bancaire hongrois, marquée par la présence d'une plus grande banque et de plusieurs autres établissements plus petits de tailles similaires, semble témoigner de l'existence de conditions de concurrence équitables. En fait, les différents segments du marché présentent des concentrations très variées et il manque plusieurs conditions pour pouvoir parler d'un marché concurrentiel. De plus, les marges financières, notamment sur les prêts hypothécaires, sont élevées par rapport aux autres pays et la viscosité à la baisse et les réactions tardives des taux débiteurs des banques de réseau à l'évolution des taux du marché monétaire indiquent également un manque de pressions concurrentielles. En l'absence de données immédiatement disponibles permettant de calculer les marges bénéficiaires, qui constituerait un meilleur indicateur de la concurrence que les mesures de concentration ou les marges financières, cet article procède à une estimation des scores d'efficience coût qui permet de mieux saisir de façon indirecte l'importance des pressions concurrentielles. L'efficience coût est estimée dans le contexte de l'UE-25 car la concurrence transnationale peut être importante dans certains segments du marché et les opérations transnationales de crédit sont considérables en Hongrie. Cet article fait appel à l?analyse de frontière stochastique avec une forme flexible de Fourier de la fonction de coût et un modèle d?obsolescence variable en fonction du temps. Les caractéristiques spécifiques de la méthodologie utilisée tiennent au fait que le crédit bancaire est corrigé des prêts non productifs. De cette façon, on évitera en partie de considérer comme des établissements efficients les banques qui gonflent leur portefeuille de prêts en prenant des risques excessifs – et génèrent donc des volumes considérables de créances irrécouvrables. Les résultats montrent qu'en Hongrie, l'efficience des banques n'est pas particulièrement élevée au regard de la situation européenne ou régionale. La concurrence pourrait être un facteur majeur d'efficience et cet article énumère une série de mesures de nature à stimuler les pressions concurrentielles.<p> Ce document se rapporte à l?Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Hongrie. |
| Keywords: | Hungary, stochastic frontier analysis, banking efficiency, banking competition, Fourier-flexible form, Hongrie, analyse de frontière stochastique, efficience des banques, concurrence des banques, forme flexible de Fourier |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2011–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:848-en&r=cba |
| By: | Konstantins Benkovskis; Ludmila Fadejeva; Krista Kalnberzina |
| Abstract: | This paper discovers the driving forces behind firms' decisions to adjust prices by using various panel logit models, which explain the probability of observing price change by a broad set of exogenous variables. The results of the models show that the consumer price formation in Latvia is a combination of both state-dependent and time-dependent behaviour. On the one hand, frequency of price changes depends on inflation, demand conditions, and the size of last price changes. On the other hand, we observe some elements of time-dependent price setting, e.g. price truncation and strong seasonal pattern. We also find several important differences in the price setting behaviour for cases of price increases and decreases. The fact that frequency of price changes in Latvia depends on inflation as well as demand and supply conditions could be seen as a prerequisite for faster price adjustment process in the event of distortions in the economy. In the case of economic imbalances, statedependent price formation changes flexibility of prices and ensures a faster adjustment process towards equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | price setting behaviour, Latvia's consumer prices, frequency of price change, sales, time-dependent pricing, state-dependent pricing, panel logit model |
| JEL: | C23 D40 E31 |
| Date: | 2011–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ltv:wpaper:201101&r=cba |