|
on Central Banking |
| By: | Galí, Jordi |
| Abstract: | Central banks' projections--i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path-- are often criticized on the grounds that their underlying policy assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. Here I describe three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to the above criticism, using two different versions of New Keynesian model as reference frameworks. Most importantly, I show how the three approaches generate different projections for inflation and output, even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate. The latter result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections. |
| Keywords: | conditinal forecats; constant interest rate projections; inflation targeting; interest rate path; interest rate rules; multiple equilibria |
| JEL: | E37 E58 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8027&r=cba |
| By: | Martin Ellison; Joseph Pearlman |
| Abstract: | Saddlepath learning occurs when agents learn adaptively using a perceived law of motion that has the same form as the saddlepath relationship in rational expectations equilibrium. Under saddlepath learning, we obtain a completely general relationship between determinacy and e-stability, and generalise Minimum State Variable results previously derived only under full information. When the system is determinate, we show that a learning process based on the saddlepath is always e-stable. When the system is indeterminate, we find there is a unique MSV solution that is iteratively e-stable. However, in this case there is a sunspot solution that is learnable as well. We conclude by demonstrating that our results hold for any information set. |
| Keywords: | E-stability, Determinacy, Learning, Saddlepath stability |
| JEL: | C60 E00 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:505&r=cba |
| By: | László Bokor (Budapest University of Technology and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a sensitivity analysis of the relative performance of inflation targeting, price level targeting, and hybrid targeting, the combination of these two. A simple, three-period, steady state to steady state economy is presented, where monetary policy is facing various sets of forward and backward looking expectations, social preferences on inflation and output gap stabilization, and degrees of cost push shock persistence. we derive optimal policy mix under the whole spectrum of these economic conditions, reporting also the criteria of the replicability of the theoretically optimal solution. The main intention of the examination is to reveal the nature of each interrelation between economic and policy parameters. The results show that (i) the relative strength of regimes depends heavily on the preconditions, and that (ii) the relationships of parameters related to the performance are non-linear and occasionally non-monotonic as well. our model specification is somewhat restrictive, however, contrary to the related literature, the examination, even in the intermediate cases, can be conducted analytically. |
| Keywords: | hybrid inflation-price level targeting, hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve, cost push shock persistence |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2010/08&r=cba |
| By: | Matthieu Darracq Pariès (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Christoffer Kok Sørensen (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Diego Rodriguez Palenzuela (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis clearly illuminated the potential amplifying role of financial factors on macroeconomic developments. Indeed, the heavy impairments of banks’ balance sheets brought to the fore the banking sector’s ability to provide a smooth flow of credit to the real economy. However, most existing structural macroeconomic models fail to take into account the crucial role of banks’ balance sheet adjustment in the propagation of shocks to the economy. This paper contributes to fill this gap, analyzing the role of credit market frictions in business cycle fluctuations and in the transmission of monetary policy. We estimate a closed-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the euro area with financially-constrained households and firms and embedding an oligopolistic banking sector facing capital constraints. Using this setup we examine the macroeconomic implications of various financial frictions on the supply and demand of credit, and in particular we assess the effects of introducing risk-sensitive and more stringent capital requirements. Finally, we explore the scope for counter-cyclical bank capital rules and the strategic complementarities between macro-prudential tools and monetary policy. JEL Classification: E4, E5, F4. |
| Keywords: | DSGE models, Bayesian estimation, Banking, Financial regulation. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101251&r=cba |
| By: | Nuno Cassola (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Michael Huetl (University of St. Gallen, Swiss Institute of Banking and Finance, Rosenbergstrasse 52, 9000 St. Gallen, Switzerland.) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of the recent financial market crisis on the Euro Overnight Index Average (EONIA) and interbank market trading and assess the effectiveness of the ECB liquidity policy between 07/2007 - 08/2008. We extend the model of [QM06] by (i) incorporating the microstructure of the EONIA market including the ECB fine-tuning operation on the last day of the maintenance period (MP) and banks’ daily excess liquidity, (ii) giving insight into banks’ trading behavior characterized by an endogenous regime-switch and suggesting an efficient procedure to simulate the entire MP, and (iii) proposing a model for market distortion due to lending constraints which lead to a bid-ask spread for the EONIA rate. The model is calibrated by simulation fitting daily EONIA rates and aggregate liquidity measures observed between March 2004 and September 2008. Besides lending constraints we consider market segmentation and aggregate liquidity shocks as possible market distortions in the crisis period. For a calibration cross-check and for estimating the timing of the endogenous regime-switch we use panel data covering liquidity data of 82 Euro Area commercial banks for the period 03/2003 - 07/2007. With the calibrated model the ECB policy of liquidity frontloading is evaluated and compared with a reserve band system policy similar to the Bank of England’s framework. We find that liquidity frontloading is a small scale central bank intervention which is capable of stabilizing interest rates in both frictionless and distorted markets. Simulations suggest that without frontloading the EONIA would have been, on average, 23 basis points above the policy rate (target); with frontloading, the overnight rate is, on average, on target. JEL Classification: E44, E52, G21. |
| Keywords: | liquidity management, open market operations, simulation, microstructure. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101247&r=cba |
| By: | Gabe de Bondt (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Elke Hahn (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a new monthly euro Area-wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives the composite ALI by applying a deviation cycle methodology with a one-sided band pass filter and choosing nine leading series. Our main findings are that i) the applied monthly reference business cycle indicator (BCI) derived from industrial production excluding construction is close to identical to the real GDP cycle, ii) the ALI reliably leads the BCI by 6 months and iii) the longer leading components of the ALI are good predictors of the ALI and therefore the BCI up to almost a year ahead and satisfactory predictors by up to 2 years ahead. A real-time analysis for predicting the euro business cycle during the 2008/2009 recession and following recovery confirms these findings. JEL Classification: E32. |
| Keywords: | Leading indicator, Business cycle, Deviation cycle, Real-time analysis, Euro Area. |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101246&r=cba |
| By: | Jimborean, R.; Mésonnier, J-S. |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel approach to assess whether banks' financial conditions, as reflected by bank-level information, matter for the transmission of monetary policy, while reconciling the micro and macro levels of analysis. We include factors summarizing large sets of individual bank balance sheet ratios in a standard factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR) of the French economy. We first find that factors extracted from banks' liquidity and leverage ratios predict macroeconomic fluctuations. This suggests a potential scope for macroprudential policies aimed at dampening the procyclical effects of adjustments in banks' balance sheets structure. However, we also find that fluctuations in bank ratio factors are largely irrelevant for the transmission of monetary shocks. Thus, there is little point monitoring the information contained in bank balance sheets, above the information already contained in credit aggregates, as far as monetary policy transmission is concerned. |
| Keywords: | Monetary transmission; Credit channel; Factor Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR). |
| JEL: | E44 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:291&r=cba |
| By: | Michele Lenza (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Huw Pill (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School.) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the response of three central banks to the 2007-09 financial crisis: the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In particular, the paper discusses the design, implementation and impact of so-called "non-standard" monetary policy measures focusing on those introduced in the euro area in the aftermath of the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Having established the impact of these measures on various observable money market spreads, we propose an empirical exercise intended to quantify the macroeconomic impact of non-standard monetary policy measures insofar as it has been transmitted via these spreads. The results suggest that non-standard measures have played a quantitatively significant role in stabilising the financial sector and economy after the collapse of Lehman Bros., even if insufficient to avoid a significant fall in economic and financial activity. JEL Classification: E52, E58. |
| Keywords: | Non-standard monetary policy, financial crisis. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101253&r=cba |
| By: | Jan Marc Berk; Beata Bierut; Ellen Meade |
| Abstract: | The literature on the behavior of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has focused on static voting patterns. We find statistical support for a dynamic pattern using a panel reaction function to analyze MPC votes over the 1997-2008 period. We find that internal and external members do not behave differently in their first year on the MPC. In their third year of tenure, internal members prefer higher policy rates, placing a higher weight on price stability and a lower weight on the output gap than external members. |
| Keywords: | Central banking; Monetary policy committees; Bank of England; Voting |
| JEL: | D71 D72 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:261&r=cba |
| By: | Guonan Ma; Robert McCauley |
| Abstract: | The Chinese authorities described the management of the renminbi after its 2005 unpegging from the US dollar as involving a basket of trading partner currencies. Outside analysts have detected few signs of such management. We find that, in the two years from mid-2006 to mid-2008, the renminbi strengthened gradually against trading partners' currencies within a narrow band. In mid-2008, the financial crisis interrupted this experiment and the bilateral renminbi/dollar exchange rate stabilised at 6.8. The 2006-08 experience suggests that a shared policy of gradual nominal effective appreciation renders East Asian currencies quite stable against one another. Such a shared policy would create favourable conditions for regional monetary cooperation. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate regime, renminbi, effective exchange rate, regional currency stability, regional monetary cooperation |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:321&r=cba |
| By: | Mathias Hoffmann (University of Zurich and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research) |
| Abstract: | The paper offers an empirical taxonomy of the factors driving China's current account. A simple present-value model with non-tradeable goods explains more than 70 percent of current account variability over the period 1982-2007, including the persistent surpluses since 2001. Expected increases in the prices of non-tradeables-housing and medical care-are the single most important channel of external adjustment, followed by consumption smoothing. Much of this pattern is driven by a permanent global shock that persistently depresses the world real interest rate and increases the current account, suggesting that shocks to precautionary saving are key in understanding China's surplus. These findings are robust to controlling for revaluation expectations in the fixed exchange rate regime and for measurement error in the current account balance. |
| Keywords: | China, Current Account, Present-Value Models, External Adjustment, Global Imbalances,Savings Glut, Precautionary Saving |
| JEL: | F32 F30 F40 |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hkm:wpaper:112010&r=cba |
| By: | Angela Maddaloni (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); José-Luis Peydró (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | Using a unique dataset of the Euro area and the U.S. bank lending standards, we find that low (monetary policy) short-term interest rates soften standards, for household and corporate loans. This softening – especially for mortgages – is amplified by securitization activity, weak supervision for bank capital and too low for too long monetary policy rates. Conversely, low long-term interest rates do not soften lending standards. Finally, countries with softer lending standards before the crisis related to negative Taylor-rule residuals experienced a worse economic performance afterwards. These results help shed light on the origins of the crisis and have important policy implications. JEL Classification: G01, G21, G28, E44, E5. |
| Keywords: | lending standards, monetary policy, securitization, bank capital, financial stability. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101248&r=cba |
| By: | Farrokh Nourzad (Economics Department Marquette University); Barry Huston (Economics Department Marquette University); James M. McGibany (Economics Department Marquette University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a simultaneous-equations model of the new consensus macroeconomic model to examine whether the inclusion of the money stock in the aggregate demand function improves the statistical fit of the model. The results indicate that the consensus model is accurate for the U.S. in that the inclusion of money does not increase the predictive power of the model. However, the results reveal that the estimated coefficients are more robust when money is included as an instrumental variable in the simultaneous equations consensus model |
| Keywords: | Consensus Macro Model; Monetary Policy; Phillips Curve; Taylor Rule |
| JEL: | C30 C52 E32 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrq:wpaper:1007&r=cba |
| By: | Christian Dreger; Jürgen Wolters |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation. Excess liquidity is measured as the difference between the actual money stock and its fundamental value, the latter determined by a money demand function. The out-of sample forecasting performance is compared to widely used alternatives, such as the term structure of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indicators are useful to predict inflation at the longer horizons, especially if the forecasting equations are based on measures of excess liquid-ity. Due to the stable link between money and inflation, central banks should implement exit strategies from the current policy path, as soon as the financial conditions are ex-pected to return to normality. |
| Keywords: | Money demand, excess liquidity, money and inflation |
| JEL: | C22 C52 E41 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1064&r=cba |
| By: | Anton Nakov (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Carlos Thomas (Banco de España, Alcalá, 48, 28014 Madrid, Spain.) |
| Abstract: | We study optimal monetary policy in a flexible state-dependent pricing framework, in which monopolistic competition and stochastic menu costs are the only distortions. We show analytically that it is optimal to commit to zero inflation in the long run. Moreover, our numerical simulations indicate that the optimal stabilization policy is "price stability". These findings represent a generalization to a state-dependent framework of the same results found for the simple Calvo model with exogenous timing of price adjustment. JEL Classification: E31. |
| Keywords: | optimal monetary policy, price stability, stochastic menu costs, state-dependent pricing. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101250&r=cba |
| By: | Legerstee, R.; Franses, Ph.H.B.F. |
| Abstract: | Forecasts from various experts are often used in macroeconomic forecasting models. Usually the focus is on the mean or median of the survey data. In the present study we adopt a different perspective on the survey data as we examine the predictive power of disagreement amongst forecasters. The premise is that this variable could signal upcoming structural or temporal changes in an economic process or in the predictive power of the survey forecasts. In our empirical work, we examine a variety of macroeconomic variables, and we use different measurements for the degree of disagreement, together with measures for location of the survey data and autoregressive components. Forecasts from simple linear models and forecasts from Markov regime-switching models with constant and with time-varying transition probabilities are constructed in real-time and compared on forecast accuracy. We find that disagreement has predictive power indeed and that this variable can be used to improve forecasts when used in Markov regime-switching models. |
| Keywords: | model forecasts;expert forecasts;survey forecasts;Markov regime-switching models;disagreement;time series |
| Date: | 2010–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:eureir:1765020744&r=cba |
| By: | Luca Gattini (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Paul Hiebert (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a parsimonious model for forecasting and analysing euro area house prices and their interrelations with the macroeconomy. A quarterly vector error correction model is estimated over 1970-2009 using supply and demand forces central to the determination of euro area house prices in equilibrium and their dynamics: housing investment, real disposable income per capita and a mixed maturity measure of the real interest rate. In addition to house price forecasts using the resulting reduced form equation, a structural decomposition of the system is obtained employing a common trends framework of King, Plosser, Stock, and Watson (1991), which allows for the identification and economic interpretation of permanent and transitory shocks. The main results are twofold. First, the reduced form model tracks closely turning points in house prices when examining out-of-sample one- and two- step ahead forecasts. Moreover, the model suggests that euro area housing was overvalued in recent years, implying a period of stagnation to bring housing valuation back in line with its modelled fundamentals. Second, housing demand and financing cost shocks appear to have contributed strongly to the dynamism in euro area house prices over the sample period. While much of the increase appears to reflect a permanent component, a transitory component has also contributed from 2005 onwards. Specification tests suggest a robustness of the small model to alternative specifications, along with validity of the long-run restrictions. JEL Classification: R21, R31, C32. |
| Keywords: | House price, Forecasting, Vector autoregression. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101249&r=cba |
| By: | Cwik, Tobias; Müller, Gernot; Wolters, Maik H |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role of trade integration - or openness - for monetary policy transmission in a medium-scale new Keynesian model. Allowing for strategic complementarities in price-setting, we highlight a new dimension of the exchange rate channel by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation: a monetary contraction which appreciates the exchange rate lowers the local currency price of imported goods; this, in turn, induces domestic producers to lower their prices too. We pin down key parameters of the model by matching impulse responses obtained from a vector autoregression on time series for the US relative to the euro area. Our estimation procedure yields plausible parameter values and suggests a strong role for strategic complementarities. Counterfactual simulations show that openness alters monetary transmission significantly. While the contractionary effect of a monetary policy shock on inflation and output tends to increase in openness, we find that monetary policy's control over inflation increases, as the output decline which is necessary to bring about a given reduction of inflation is smaller in more open economies. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate channel; monetary policy transmission; open economy; strategic complementarity; trade integration |
| JEL: | E52 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8026&r=cba |
| By: | Davide Furceri; Aleksandra Zdzienicka |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to assess the consequences of banking crises for public debt. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1980 to 2006, the paper shows that banking crises are associated with a significant and long-lasting increase in government debt. The effect is a function of the severity of the crisis. In particular, for severe crises, comparable to the most recent one in terms of output losses, banking crises are followed by a medium-term increase of about 37 percentage points in the government gross debt-to-GDP ratio. Measuring the increase in debt in this manner seems more appropriate than some of the measures used in the literature that have provided off-quoted and very large numbers for the run-up in debt. In addition, the debt ratio increased more in countries with a higher initial gross debt-to-GDP ratio and with a higher initial foreign debt-to-GDP ratio.<P>Les conséquences des crises bancaires pour la dette publique<BR>L’objectif de ce document est de déterminer l’impact des crises bancaires sur la dette publique. Les résultats obtenus utilisant un panel non-cylindré de 154 pays sur la période 1980-2006 montrent que les crises bancaires provoquent une augmentation significative et persistante de la dette publique. Cet effet dépend de la sévérité de la crise. Plus précisément, les crises dont la sévérité est comparable à la crise la plus récente en termes de pertes de PIB augmentent la dette publique brute par rapport PIB d’environ 37 points de pourcentage à moyen terme. Cette approche semble être plus appropriée par rapport à celles utilisées dans la littérature qui centrées sur la dette publique elle-même rapportent l’impact beaucoup plus important des crises bancaires. De plus, l’impact des crises bancaires croît en fonction du niveau initial de la dette public et de la dette extérieur par rapport au PIB. |
| Keywords: | public debt, financial crisis, banking crisis, dette publique, crise financière, crise bancaire |
| JEL: | E6 G1 |
| Date: | 2010–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:801-en&r=cba |
| By: | Dirk Bezemer; Geoffrey Gardiner |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses recent UK monetary policies as instances of John Kenneth Galbraith's "innocent fraud," including the idea that money is a thing rather than a relationship, the fallacy of composition (i.e., that what is possible for one bank is possible for all banks), and the belief that the money supply can be controlled by reserves management. The origins of the idea of quantitative easing (QE), and its defense when it was applied in Britain, are analyzed through this lens. An empirical analysis of the effect of reserves on lending is conducted; we do not find evidence that QE "worked," either by a direct effect on money spending, or through an equity market effect. These findings are placed in a historical context in a comparison with earlier money control experiments in the UK. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative Easing; UK Innocent Frauds; Accounting |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_622&r=cba |
| By: | Daniel Heymann (Departament of Economics, Universidad de San Andres & Universidad de Buenos Aires); Adrián Ramos (CEPAL & Universidad de Buenos Aires) |
| Keywords: | inflation, macroeconomic, policy, Argentina, convertibility |
| Date: | 2010–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sad:wpaper:104&r=cba |
| By: | Eduardo Drumond (Faculty of Economics, Universidade Federal do Paraná); Gabriel Porcile (Department of Economics, Universidade Federal do Paraná) |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses the impacts of an inflation target regime on growth, distribution and stability in an open economy from a Post-Keynesian perspective. The model combines a conflicting claims theory of inflation, changes in the rate of capacity utilization and equilibrium in the external sector to show that in the long run monetary policy has a real impact on growth and employment – there exists a trade-off between the inflation rate and the growth rate. A monetary rule that takes into consideration equilibrium in current account is considered. It is shown that this rule can contribute to stability in the long run, to the extent that it hinders the possibility of an explosive growth in the stock of the external debt. |
| Keywords: | Growth. Foreign debt. Kaleckian model of open economy. Stability. Indebtedness. |
| JEL: | E20 E50 F41 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fup:wpaper:0109&r=cba |
| By: | Shakill Hassan; Félix Simione |
| Abstract: | Microstructure aspects of nominal exchange rate determination are less relevant in countries with embryonic financial markets. In less-developed economies, trade in goods and services is a more significant driver of currency demand than financial market speculation or hedging; and central banks actively set monetary variables. We develop a simple variation of the standard monetary model of exchange rate determination, incorporating interest rate rules but not relying on interest rate parity; and study the effect of monetary fundamentals on the Mozambican exchange rate. We find a long-run relationship between fundamentals and exchange rates, with coefficient signs in regression equations consistent with theoretic predictions. Moreover, the monetary model outperforms a random walk in predicting metical exchange rates out-of-sample at the four-quarter horizon. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:192&r=cba |