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on Central Banking |
| By: | James Costain (Banco de España); Antón Nákov (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of monetary shocks in a DSGE model that allows for a general form of smoothly state-dependent pricing by firms. As in Dotsey, King, and Wolman (1999) and Caballero and Engel (2007), our setup is based on one fundamental property: firms are more likely to adjust their prices when doing so is more valuable. The exogenous timing (Calvo 1983) and fixed menu cost (Golosov and Lucas 2007) models are nested as limiting cases of our setup. Our model is calibrated to match the steady-state distribution of price adjustments in microdata; realism calls for firm-specific shocks. Computing a dynamic general equilibrium requires us to calculate how the distribution of prices and productivities evolves over time. We solve the model using the method of Reiter (2008), which is well-suited to this type of problem because it combines a fully nonlinear treatment of firm-level state variables with a linearization of the aggregate dynamics. We compute impulse responses to iid and autocorrelated money growth shocks, and decompose the inflation impact into 'intensive margin', 'extensive margin' and 'selection' components. Under our most successful calibration, increased money growth causes a persistent rise in inflation and output. The real effects are substantially larger if money growth is autocorrelated. In contrast, if we instead impose a fixed menu cost specification, money growth shocks cause a sharp spike in inflation (via the selection component) so that the real effects are small and short-lived, especially if money growth is iid. An increase in aggregate productivity raises consumption but causes labor to fall. Also, impulse responses differ depending on the distribution at the time the shock occurs. In particular, increased money growth has different effects starting from the steady state distribution than it does if all firms have recently received an economy-wide productivity shock. |
| Keywords: | price stickiness, state-dependent pricing, stochastic menu costs, generalized (S,s), heterogeneous agents, distributional dynamics |
| JEL: | E31 E52 D81 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:0831&r=cba |
| By: | Bussière, Matthieu (BOFIT); Peltonen, Tuomas (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates export and import price equations for 41 countries –including 28 emerging market economies. Further, it relates the estimated elasticities to structural factors and tests for statistical breaks in the relation between trade prices and exchange rates. Results indicate that (i) the elasticity of trade prices in emerging markets is sizeable, but not significantly higher than in advanced economies; (ii) such elasticity is primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the exchange rate regime and the inflationary environment, although microeconomic factors such as product differentiation also play a role; (iii) export and import price elasticities tend to be strongly correlated across countries; (iv) pass-through to import prices has declined in some advanced economies, noticeably the United States; this is consistent with a rise in pricing-to-market in several EMEs and especially with a change in the geographical composition of U.S. imports. |
| Keywords: | emerging market economies; exchange rate pass-through; pricing-to-market; local and producer currency pricing; exchange rate regime |
| JEL: | F10 F30 F41 |
| Date: | 2009–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_025&r=cba |
| By: | Patrick-Antoine Pintus (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579) |
| Abstract: | The issue of how endogenous borrowing constraints lead to the amplification and persistence of aggregate shocks is revisited in this paper. Specifically, I show that an amplification-persistence trade-off is embodied in the setting proposed by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997). The key point is that while complex unit roots associated with persistence of temporary shocks require the fraction of credit-constrained firms to be small enough, large amplification relies on the opposite condition. Incidentally, I confirm the occurrence of periodic and quasi-periodic cycles around the determinate steady state. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect credit markets, complex unit roots, persistence and amplification, endogenous cycles |
| Date: | 2009–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00353602_v1&r=cba |
| By: | Kanda Naknoi |
| Abstract: | The literature on optimum currency areas argues that in the presence of countryspecific real shocks, the cost of fixing exchange rates is decreasing in the degree of trade openness. This study uses a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of endogenous specialization to assess the benefit of exchange rate flexibility. The benefit of exchange rate flexibility consists of the benefit along the extensive margin through adjustment in the composition of trade, and the benefit along the intensive margin through adjustment in the relative prices. Openness is found to influence these two benefits differently. Thus, the model predicts a non-monotonic relationship between openness and the benefit of exchange rate flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate regimes, Trade costs, Openness |
| JEL: | F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1215&r=cba |
| By: | Francesco CHELLI (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia); Chiara GIGLIARANO (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia); Elvio MATTIOLI (Universita' Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Economia) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the determinants of the heterogeneity in the expenditure behaviors of the Italian households, using the Households Expenditure Survey provided by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) for the year 2005. We assume that differences among consumers are associated with differences in their economic and socio-demographic characteristics (such as gender, employment status and age of the householder, number of household components, presence of under 18 years old components), and we look for those characteristics that better differentiate groups of households according to their purchasing patterns. We apply a nonparametric discriminant analysis based on the various expenditure budget components, and detect the most discriminating partitions of families. The technique allows us also to identify the specific goods of consumption that significantly differ across the groups identified by the best partitions. We then study the different effects of the price dynamics on subgroups of households, and propose consumer price indices specific for the optimal households groups |
| Keywords: | consumer price index, consumption, discriminant analysis, household expenditure survey |
| JEL: | C43 D12 E31 H31 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:329&r=cba |
| By: | Meixing DAI |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a model of financial and exchange crises with balance-sheet effects by explicitly taking account of wealth accumulation and external equilibrium condition. We have found that, in a general equilibrium analysis, there are two stationary equilibria. Since foreign debt is always zero at these equilibria, financial crises in emerging market economies cannot be interpreted as jumps between equilibria but between trajectories leading to one equilibrium or another one. The mechanisms of financial crises due to monsoon or spill-over effects are also analysed in this framework. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis, exchange crisis, balance sheet effect, external solvency constraint. |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2009-02&r=cba |
| By: | Mário R. Páscoa; Myrian Petrassi; Juan Pablo Torres-Martínez |
| Abstract: | It is well known that, under uniform impatience, positive net supply assets are free of bubbles for non-arbitrage kernel deflators that yield finite present values of wealth. However, this does not mean that prices cannot be above the series of deflated dividends for the deflators given by the agents' marginal rates of substitution, which also yield finite present values of wealth. In particular, binding no-short-sales constraints lead to positive prices of fiat money. These monetary equilibria are Pareto improvements but they are still inefficient. |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:176&r=cba |
| By: | Olutomi I Adeyemi (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey); David C Broadstock (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey); Mona Chitnis (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC) and Research Group on Lifestyles Values and Environment (RESOLVE), University of Surrey); Lester C Hunt (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey); Guy Judge (Department of Economics, University of Portsmouth) |
| Abstract: | A number of energy demand studies have considered the importance of modelling Asymmetric Price Responses (APR), for example, the often-cited work of Gately and Huntington (2002). Griffin and Schulman (2005) questioned the asymmetric approach arguing that this is only capturing energy saving technical progress. Huntington (2006), however, showed that for whole economy aggregate energy and oil demand there is a role statistically for both APR and exogenous energy saving technical change. In a separate strand of the literature the idea of the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) has been developed, see for example Hunt et al. (2003a and 2003b) and Dimitropoulos et al. (2005). They argue that it is important, in time series energy demand models, to allow for stochastic trends (or UEDTs) based upon the structural time series/dynamic regression methodology recommended by Harvey (1989, 1997). This paper attempts to bring these strands of the literature together by conducting tests for the UEDT and APR in energy demand models within both a panel context (consistent with the Huntington, 2006 approach) and the structural time series modelling framework. A set of tests across a range of specifications using time-series and panel data are therefore undertaken in order to ascertain whether energy saving technical change (or the more general UEDT) and APR are substitutes for each other when modelling energy demand or whether they are actually picking up different influences and are therefore complements. Using annual whole economy data for 17 OECD countries over the period 1960 – 2004 the results suggest that in general the UEDT and ARP are complementary estimation methodologies when modelling aggregate energy demand. It is argued therefore that energy demand modellers should not assume at the outset that one method is superior to the other. Moreover, wherever possible, a general model (be it in a time series or panel context) that includes a ‘non linear UEDT’ and APR should be initially estimated, and only if accepted by the data should symmetry and/or a more restrictive UEDT be imposed. |
| Keywords: | Energy Demand, OECD, Asymmetric Price Responses, Underlying Energy Demand Trend. |
| JEL: | C22 C23 C52 Q41 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:121&r=cba |
| By: | Radowski, Daniel (Deutsche Bundesbank); Bonin, Holger (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | The paper uses a new German employer survey on wage setting practices to analyze incidence and sources of nominal wage rigidity in services vs. manufacturing. We observe that wage freezes are significantly more frequent and wage cuts less frequent in services. Reasons preventing wage cuts reported by employers suggest that fear of excess worker turnover could explain this distinct behavior. |
| Keywords: | nominal wage rigidity, efficiency wages, manufacturing and services, Germany |
| JEL: | J31 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3923&r=cba |
| By: | Enrico Moretti (University of California, Berkeley, USA and The Rimini Centre of Economic Analisys, Italy) |
| Abstract: | A large literature has documented a signi cant increase in the return to college over the past 30 years. This increase is typically measured using nominal wages. I show that from 1980 to 2000, college graduates have increasingly concentrated in metropolitan areas that are characterized by a high cost of housing. This implies that college graduates are increasingly exposed to a high cost of living and that the relative increase in their real wage may be smaller than the relative increase in their nominal wage. To measure the college premium in real terms, I de ate nominal wages using a new CPI that allows for changes in the cost of housing to vary across metropolitan areas and education groups. I nd that half of the documented increase in the return to college between 1980 and 2000 disappears when I use real wages. This nding does not appear to be driven by di erences in housing quality and is robust to a number of alternative speci cations. The implications of this nding for changes in well-being inequality depend on why college graduates sort into expensive cities. Using a simple general equilibrium model, I consider two alternative explanations. First, it is possible that the relative supply of college graduates increases in expensive cities because college graduates are increasingly attracted by amenities located in those cities. In this case, higher cost of housing re ects consumption of desirable local amenities, and there may still be a signi cant increase in well-being inequality even if the increase in real wage inequality is limited. Alternatively, it is possible that the relative demand of college graduates increases in expensive cities due to shifts in the relative productivity of skilled labor. In this case, the relative increase in skilled workers' standard of living is o set by higher cost of living. The empirical evidence indicates that relative demand shifts are more important than relative supply shifts, suggesting that the increase in well-being inequality between 1980 and 2000 is smaller than the increase in nominal wage inequality. I thank David Card, Tom Davido , Ed Glaeser, Chang-Tai Hsieh, Pat Kline, Douglas Krupka and David Levine for insightful conversations, and seminar participants at Berkeley Economics, Berkeley Haas, Collegio Carlo Alberto in Torino, IZA, San Francisco Federal Reserve and UC Merced for many useful comments. I thank Emek Basker for generously providing the Accra data on consumption prices. Issi Romen, Mariana Carrera, Justin Gallagher, Jonas Hjort, Max Kasy and Zach Liscow provided excellent research assistance. |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:34-08&r=cba |
| By: | Sonali Das (CSIR, Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Alain Kabundi (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes whether a wealth of information contained in 126 monthly series used by large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (LBVAR) models, as well as Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models, either Bayesian or classical, can prove to be more useful in forecasting real house price growth rate of the nine census divisions of the US, compared to the small-scale VAR models, that merely use the house prices. Using the period of 1991:02 to 2000:12 as the in-sample period and 2001:01 to 2005:06 as the out-of-sample horizon, we compare the forecast performance of the alternative models for one- to twelve–months ahead forecasts. Based on the average Root Mean Squared Error (RMSEs) for one- to twelve–months ahead forecasts, we find that the alternative FAVAR models outperform the other models in eight of the nine census divisions. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Factor Model, BVAR, Forecast Accuracy |
| JEL: | C11 C13 C33 C53 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200902&r=cba |
| By: | Elena Andreou (University of Cyprus, Cyprus); Marianne Sensier (The University of Manchester, UK); Alessandra Pelloni (University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’ and The Rimini Centre of Economic Analisys, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We provide empirical support for a DSGE model with nominal wage stickiness where growth is driven by learning-by-doing and money shocks and their variance are allowed to impact on long-run output growth. In our theoretical model the variance of monetary shocks has a negative effect on growth, while output volatility is good for growth as a positive relationship exists. Utilising a bivariate GARCH-M model we test the empirical conditional mean and variance relationships of nominal money and production growth rates in the G7 countries. We corroborate the theoretical model predictions with evidence from Bonferroni multiple tests across the G7. |
| Keywords: | growth uncertainty, learning-by-doing, monetary uncertainty, multivariate GARCH-in-mean, nominal rigidity. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 O42 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:37-08&r=cba |
| By: | Barbara Annicchiarico (University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’. Italy); Luisa Corrado (University of Cambridge, UK and University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’, Italy); Alessandra Pelloni (University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’ and The Rimini Centre of Economic Analisys, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between growth and variability in a DSGE model with nominal rigidities and growth driven by learning-by-doing. We show that this relationship may be positive or negative depending on the impulse source of fluctuations A key role is also played by the Frisch elasticity of labour supply and by institutional features of the labour market. Our general findings are that monetary shocks volatility will generally have a negative effect on growth, while the opposite tends to be true for fiscal and productivity shocks. These findings are somehow consistent with the existing empirical evidence: data show, in fact, a somewhat ambiguous relationship between output growth and real variability, but a generally negative relationship between output growth and nominal variability. |
| Keywords: | Growth; Volatility; Monetary and Real Shocks; Labour Supply Elasticity; Second-Order Approximation Methods |
| JEL: | O42 E30 C63 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:32-08&r=cba |
| By: | Barnett, William A.; He, Susan |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic general-equilibrium macroeconomic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with all forms of multiperiodic dynamics between. But Grandmont provided his result with a model in which all policies are Ricardian equivalent, no frictions exist, employment is always full, competition is perfect, and all solutions are Pareto optimal. Hence he was not able to reach conclusions about the policy relevance of his dramatic discovery. As a result, Barnett and He (1999, 2001, 2002) investigated a Keynesian structural model, and found results supporting Grandmont’s conclusions within the parameter space of the Bergstrom-Wymer continuous-time dynamic macroeconometric model of the UK economy. That prototypical Keynesian model was produced from a system of second order differential equations. The model contains frictions through adjustment lags, displays reasonable dynamics fitting the UK economy’s data, and is clearly policy relevant. In addition, results by Barnett and Duzhak (2008,2009) demonstrate the existence of Hopf and flip (period doubling) bifurcation within the parameter space of recent New Keynesian models. Lucas-critique criticism of Keynesian structural models has motivated development of Euler equations models having policy-invariant deep parameters, which are invariant to policy rule changes. Hence, we continue the investigation of policy-relevant bifurcation by searching the parameter space of the best known of the Euler equations general-equilibrium macroeconometric models: the path-breaking Leeper and Sims (1994) model. We find the existence of singularity bifurcation boundaries within the parameter space. Although never before found in an economic model, singularity bifurcation may be a common property of Euler equations models, which often do not have closed form solutions. Our results further confirm Grandmont’s views. Beginning with Grandmont’s findings with a classical model, we continue to follow the path from the Bergstrom-Wymer policy-relevant Keynesian model, to New Keynesian models, and now to Euler equations macroeconomic models having deep parameters. |
| Keywords: | Bifurcation; inference; dynamic general equilibrium; Pareto optimality; Hopf bifurcation; Euler equations; Leeper and Sims model; singularity bifurcation; stability. |
| JEL: | E32 C14 C52 E52 C22 E37 E61 |
| Date: | 2009–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12803&r=cba |
| By: | Melisso Boschi (University of Perugia and Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA)); Alessandro Girardi (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses and University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multivariate, multi-country time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries’ domestic output variability explained by industrial countries’ factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | International business cycle, Latin America, exchange rate regimes, Global VAR methodology, VEC models. |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isa:wpaper:105&r=cba |
| By: | David Büttner (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps Universitaet Marburg); Bernd Hayo (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps Universitaet Marburg); Matthias Neuenkirch (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps Universitaet Marburg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact on daily returns of three-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates versus the euro, and the US dollar. First, foreign macroeconomic news has a significant impact on CEEC-3 financial markets. Second, neither US nor European news has a stronger effect over the whole observation period. Third, the process of European integration is accompanied by an increasing importance of euro area news relative to US news. Fourth, there are country-specific differences: the Czech markets become more affected by foreign news after the Copenhagen Summit than the other countries. Finally, testing the persistence of news over a business week confirms our main results. |
| Keywords: | Financial Markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Macroeconomic News, European Monetary Union |
| JEL: | G12 G15 F30 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:200903&r=cba |
| By: | Kaaresvirta, Juuso (BOFIT); Mehrotra, Aaron (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due to increases in food prices. |
| Keywords: | inflation forecasting; business surveys; China |
| JEL: | C53 E31 |
| Date: | 2009–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_022&r=cba |
| By: | Balogun, Emmanuel Dele |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effect of independent exchange rate pursuits and reserve holdings, relative to other determinants, on global export performance of WAMZ countries. The regression results show that exports originating from the Zone to the rest of the world are influenced positively by domestic output, export prices and exchange rate devaluations, but negatively by import price and economic performance of the major global trading partner, proxied by the US GDP. This result is not universal as the Gambia, Ghana and Guinea total exports functions show that exchange rate policy penalized exports contrary to the Nigerian case in which the coefficient estimate is significant and positive. The study infers that these results are consistent with theoretical expectation given the ironical divergence in export basket. Although they are all primary commodity exporters, Nigeria’s exports is mainly crude oil, and a priori expectation is that rapid economic growth or booms in the US should lead to increased demand for energy (healthy competitions). In conclusion, the study infers that since independent flexible exchange rate policy pursuits and reserve holdings makes no difference to the Zonal export performance ex ante, but have great potential for global exports collectively, they could explore an OCA to enhance both intra- and global inter-regional export trade |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate policy; export trade; panel data regression model; WAMZ |
| JEL: | F10 C23 F14 F1 |
| Date: | 2009–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12929&r=cba |
| By: | Haider, Adnan; Khan, Safdar Ullah |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model for Pakistan using Bayesian simulation approach. Model setup is based on new Keynesian framework, characterized by nominal rigidity in prices with habit formation in household’s consumption. The core objective is to study whether an estimated small open economy DSGE model provides a realistic behavior about the structure Pakistan economy with fully articulated description of the monetary policy transmission mechanism vis-à-vis domestic firm’s price setting behavior. To do so, we analyze the impulse responses of key macro variables; domestic inflation, imported inflation, output, consumption, interest rate, exchange rate, term of trade to different structural/exogenous shocks. From several interesting results, few are; (a) high inflation in Pakistan do not hit domestic consumption significantly; (b) Central bank of Pakistan responds to high inflation by increasing the policy rate by 100 to 200 bps; (c) exchange rate appreciates in both the cases of high domestic and imported inflation; (d) tight monetary policy stance helps to curb domestic inflation as well as imported inflation but appreciates exchange rate significantly (f) pass through of exchange rate to domestic inflation is very low; finally parameter value of domestic price stickiness shows that around 24 percent domestic firms do not re-optimize their prices which implies averaged price contract is about two quarters. |
| Keywords: | New-Keynesian economics; open economy DSGE models; nominal rigidities; monetary policy transmission mechanism; Bayesian Approach |
| JEL: | F37 E32 E52 F47 E47 |
| Date: | 2008–11–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:12854&r=cba |