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on Central Banking |
| By: | George W. Evans (University of Oregon Economics Department); Seppo Honkapohja (University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomic theories. The econometric learning approach models economic agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating forecasting models in real time. The learning approach provides a stability test for rational expectations and a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria. In addition, learning provides new dynamics if older data is discounted, models are misspecified or agents choose between competing models. This paper describes the E-stability principle and the stochastic approximation tools used to assess equilibria under learning. Applications of learning to a number of areas are reviewed, including the design of monetary and fiscal policy, business cycles, self-fulfilling prophecies, hyperinflation, liquidity traps, and asset prices. |
| Keywords: | E-stability, least-squares, stochastic approximation, persistent learning dynamics, business cycles, monetary policy, asset prices, sunspots. |
| JEL: | E32 D83 D84 C62 |
| Date: | 2008–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2008-3&r=cba |
| By: | V.V. Chari; Patrick J. Kehoe; Ellen R. McGrattan |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice; we do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate structural model is essential to reliably evaluate the effects of policies, we conclude that New Keynesian models are not yet useful for policy analysis. |
| JEL: | E32 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14313&r=cba |
| By: | Gary Koop (University of Strathclyde, UK and The RImini Centre for Economic Analisys, Italy); Roberto Leon-Gonzalez (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan and The RImini Centre for Economic Analisys - Italy); Rodney W. Strachan (University of Queensland, Australia and The RImini Centre for Economic Analisys - Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the evolution of monetary policy in the U.S. using a standard set of macroeconomic variables. Many recent papers have addressed the issue of whether the monetary transmission mechanism has changed (e.g. due to the Fed taking a more aggressive stance against ination) or whether apparent changes are simply due to changes in the volatility of exogenous shocks. A subsidiary question is whether any such changes have been gradual or abrupt. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using a mixture innovation model which extends the class of time varying Vector Autoregressive models with stochastic volatility which have been used in the past. The advantage of our extension is that it allows us to estimate whether, where, when and how parameter change is occurring (as opposed to assuming a particular form of parameter change). Our empirical results strongly indicate that the transmission mechanism, the volatility of exogenous shocks and the correlations between exogenous shocks are all changing (albeit at different times and to di¤erent extents) Furthermore, evolution of parameters is gradual. |
| Keywords: | structural VAR, monetary policy, Bayesian, mixture innovation model, time varying parameter model |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:24-08&r=cba |
| By: | Gary Koop (University of Strathclyde, UK and The RImini Centre for Economic Analisys, Italy); Roberto Leon-Gonzalez (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan and The RImini Centre for Economic Analisys - Italy); Rodney W. Strachan (University of Queensland, Australia and The RImini Centre for Economic Analisys - Italy) |
| Abstract: | Empirical macroeconomists are increasingly using models (e.g. regressions or Vector Autoregressions) where the parameters vary over time. State space methods are frequently used to specify the evolution of parameters in such models. In any application, there are typically restrictions on the parameters that a researcher might be interested in. This motivates the question of how to calculate the probability that a restriction holds at a point in time without assuming the restriction holds at all (or any other) points in time. This paper develops methods to answer this question. In particular, the principle of the Savage-Dickey density ratio is used to obtain the time-varying posterior probabilities of restrictions. We use our methods in a macroeconomic application involving the Phillips curve. Macroeconomists are interested in whether the long-run Phillips curve is vertical. This is a restriction for which we can calculate the posterior probability using our methods. Using U.S. data, the probability that this restriction holds tends to be fairly high, but decreases slightly over time (apart from a slight peak in the late 1970s). We also calculate the probability that another restriction, that the NAIRU is not identied, holds. The probability that it holds uctuates over time with most evidence in favor of the restriction occurring after 1990. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian, state space model, Savage-Dickey density ratio, time varying parameter model. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:26-08&r=cba |
| By: | William Barnett (Department of Economics, The University of Kansas); Marcelle Chauvet (University of California at Riverside) |
| Abstract: | This paper comprises a survey of a half century of research on international monetary aggregate data. We argue that since monetary assets began yielding interest, the simple sum monetary aggregates have had no foundations in economic theory and have sequentially produced one source of misunderstanding after another. The bad data produced by simple sum aggregation have contaminated research in monetary economics, have resulted in needless “paradoxes,” and have produced decades of misunderstandings in international monetary economics research and policy. While better data, based correctly on index number theory and aggregation theory, now exist, the official central bank data most commonly used have not improved in most parts of the world. While aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates exist for internal use at the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and many other central banks throughout the world, the only central banks that currently make aggregation theoretic monetary aggregates available to the public are the Bank of England and the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. No other area of economics has been so seriously damaged by data unrelated to valid index number and aggregation theory. In this paper we chronologically review the past research in this area and connect the data errors with the resulting policy and inference errors. Future research on monetary aggregation and policy can most advantageously focus on extensions to exchange rate risk and its implications for multilateral aggregation over monetary asset portfolios containing assets denominated in more than one currency. The relevant theory for multilateral aggregation with exchange rate risk has been derived by Barnett (2007) and Barnett and Wu (2005). |
| Keywords: | Measurement error, monetary aggregation, Divisia index, aggregation, monetary policy, index number theory, exchange rate risk, multilateral aggregation, open economy monetary economics. |
| JEL: | E40 E52 E58 C43 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:200804&r=cba |
| By: | Sarah M. Lein (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Thomas Maag (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents some empirical facts on the dynamics of perceived inflation rates for EU countries. First, we find that perceptions are inefficient and highly heteroge- neous, yet contemporaneously related to the actual rate of inflation. Second, similar to studies on inflation expectations, we estimate how often European consumers up- date their inflation perceptions employing Carroll's (2003) epidemiological model. The advantage of employing perceived instead of expected inflation is that the value of the newest information can exactly be measured: the actual rate of inflation. Our findings indicate that the stickiness of perceptions is generally higher than the stick- iness of expectations. Unlike studies using expectations, however, we cannot confirm that a constant fraction of the population updates information every month. Also observed heterogeneity of perceptions is much higher than implied by the epidemio- logical model. |
| Keywords: | perceived inflation, sticky information, inattention, expectation formation |
| JEL: | E31 E50 D83 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:08-204&r=cba |
| By: | Aloy, Marcel; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Nancy, Gilles |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a dynamic model for small to medium open economies operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. The model provides a partial explanation of the channels through which fiscal and monetary policy affects the real exchange rate. An empirical investigation is conducted for the case of Argentina during the currency board period of 1991-2001. Empirical estimates show that fiscal policy may indeed be an efficient instrument for promoting macroeconomic stability insofar as it encourages convergence toward long-run equilibrium and alters the long-term balance between exports and consumption, both private and public. The simulation applied to Argentina shows that if the share of public spending in the economy is higher than the share of imports, an increase in the tax rate will stimulate capital stock slightly, at least in the short term, and depreciate the real effective exchange rate. In the long run, the fiscal policy affects the value of the real exchange rate and consequently external competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Stabilization,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4607&r=cba |
| By: | Hatcher, Michael C. (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | Inflation targeting is currently popular with central banks. Is this popularity justified? I investigate this question by comparing a speed limit policy and inflation targeting with a Lucas-type Phillips curve capturing output gap persistence. If the output gap is at least moderately persistent, a speed limit policy can: (1) partly eliminate the state-contingent inflation bias, and (2) reduce inflation variability at no output gap variability cost. |
| Keywords: | inflation targeting; speed limit policy; inflation bias; discretion; stabilisation |
| JEL: | E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/20&r=cba |
| By: | Attila Csajbók (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) |
| Abstract: | The focus of this paper is on the use of staff policy recommendations in central banks. Based on the responses to a recent survey conducted by the Bank of International Settlements, the paper tries to answer two questions. (1) How (to what extent) do central bank decision-makers make use of staff views regarding the appropriate policy? (2) What institutional features determine the extent to which staff policy views are utilised by decision-makers? The ‘weight’ with which staff policy views are taken into account is proxied by how explicitly they are presented to the policy board. Based on the survey responses about how staff policy views are presented, a Staff Recommendation Explicitness Index (SREI) is constructed for each central bank surveyed. SREI is then regressed on a number of candidate explanatory variables. The results suggest that the use of staff policy views, proxied by SREI, is negatively related to the size of the policy committee. Furthermore, the use of staff policy views seems more pronounced if the committee is consensus-seeker and if the monetary regime is inflation targeting. Tentative explanations are offered for each of these findings. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, central bank staff, committee, decision-making. |
| JEL: | D71 E58 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2008/4&r=cba |
| By: | Erdemlioglu, Deniz M; Xiao, Wei |
| Abstract: | This paper tests “Bad Policy” Hypothesis which refers to the Great Moderation in the US. We examine this hypothesis by simulating model based impulse response functions for the both pre-Volcker period and post 1982 period. Deriving and simulating standard New Keynesian DSGE Model explicitly, we find that while post 1982 policy i.e. active policy, is consistent with the unique stable equilibrium characteristics; pre-Volcker or passive monetary policy generates equilibrium indeterminacy. Moreover, our simulated-impulse response functions show that the response of inflation and the output gap in post 82 period is weaker than the macroeconomic responses of the pre-Volcker period. |
| Keywords: | The Great Moderation; Indeterminacy; Determinate Equilibrium; New Keynesian DSGE Model; Monetary Policy; Sunspot shocks. |
| JEL: | E0 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:10322&r=cba |
| By: | Boris Cournède; Rudiger Ahrend; Robert Price |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the question of whether and how long-term financial trends may have modified the transmission mechanism from monetary policy decisions to economic activity. The focus is on longterm changes, abstracting from the disruptions created by the 2007-08 financial turmoil which are temporarily affecting the transmission mechanism. The first series of findings is that a number of factors have worked to strengthen the transmission of monetary policy, including more competitive financial markets, higher household indebtedness, greater diversity in the supply of financial products, greater financial integration and more responsive asset pricing mechanisms. However, other factors appear to have simultaneously gone in the direction of weakening transmission of domestic policy, including greater external financial influences, lower exchange-rate pass-through and a broad-based shift towards fixed-rate assets and liabilities. On balance, monetary policy appears to remain a powerful tool for guiding aggregate demand, but a number of changes that have worked to support the strength of transmission have also increased risks to financial stability. <P>Les tendances de fond des marchés financiers ont-elles modifié la transmission <BR>Cette étude aborde la question de savoir dans quelle mesure les tendances de fond des marchés financiers ont pu modifier la transmission de la politique monétaire. L’accent est porté sur les changements de long-terme en faisant abstraction des modifications temporaires du mécanisme de transmission qui résultent des troubles financiers observés en 2007-08. Une première série de résultats indique que plusieurs facteurs ont joué dans le sens de renforcer la transmission de la politique monétaire. Ces facteurs incluent l’intensification de la concurrence sur les marchés financiers, l’accroissement de l’endettement des ménages, la diversification de l’offre de produits financiers et la plus grande réactivité des prix des actifs. Cependant, d’autres facteurs ont agi de manière concomitante dans le sens de réduire la puissance du mécanisme de transmission de la politique monétaire intérieure. Ces facteurs incluent l’accroissement des influences financières extérieures, la plus faible transmission des mouvements de change et le plus grand recours aux emprunts et titres à taux fixe. Au final, il apparaît que la politique monétaire demeure un outil puissant d’orientation de la demande agrégée, mais une partie des changements qui ont préservé la force du mécanisme de transmission se sont effectués au prix de risques accrus pour la stabilité financière. |
| Keywords: | financial markets, marchés financiers, financial development, développement financier, réglementation, house prices, regulation, monetary policy, politique monétaire, asset prices, prix des actifs, interest rate, taux d'intérêt, financial innovation, innovation financière, transmission, transmission |
| JEL: | E40 E43 E44 E50 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:634-en&r=cba |
| By: | Hafedh Bouakez; Michel Normandin |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the bilateral exchange rate between the U.S. and each of the G7 countries. We also estimate deviations from uncovered interest rate parity and exchange rate pass-through conditional on these shocks. The analysis is based on a structural vector autoregression in which monetary policy shocks are identified through the conditional heteroscedasticity of the structural disturbances. Unlike earlier work in this area, our empirical methodology avoids making arbitrary assumptions about the relevant policy indicator or transmission mechanism in order to achieve identification. At the same time, it allows us to assess the implications of imposing invalid identifying restrictions. Our results indicate that the nominal exchange rate exhibits delayed overshooting in response to a monetary expansion, depreciating for roughly ten months before starting to appreciate. The shock also leads to large and persistent departures from uncovered interest rate parity, and to a prolonged period of incomplete pass-through. Variance-decomposition results indicate that monetary policy shocks account for a non-trivial proportion of exchange rate fluctuations. |
| Keywords: | Conditions heteroscedasticity, delayed overshooting, exchange rate pass-through, identification, structural vector autoregression, uncovered interest rate parity |
| JEL: | C32 E52 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0818&r=cba |
| By: | Stephanie E. Curcuru; Charles P. Thomas; Francis E. Warnock |
| Abstract: | The sustainability of the large and persistent U.S. current account deficits is one of the biggest issues currently being confronted by international macroeconomists. Some very plausible theories suggest that the substantial global imbalances can continue in a benign manner, other equally plausible theories predict a disorderly resolution, and in general it is very difficult to discern between competing theories. To inform the debates, we view competing theories through the perspective of the relative reliability of the data the theories rely on. Our analysis of the dark matter theory is cursory; from a relative reliability perspective, it fails as it is built on the assumption that an item that is largely unmeasured is the most accurate component of the entire set of international accounts. Similarly, the best data currently available suggest that U.S. returns differentials are much smaller than implied by the exorbitant privilege theory. Our analysis opens up questions about potential inconsistencies in the international accounts, which we address by providing rough estimates of various holes in the accounts. |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14295&r=cba |
| By: | Tatevik Sekhposyan; Barbara Rossi |
| Abstract: | We evaluate various models’ relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the models’ relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the models’ relative performance has, in fact, changed dramatically over time, both for revised and real-time data, and investigate possible factors that might explain such changes. In addition, this paper establishes two empirical stylized facts. Namely, most predictors for output growth lost their predictive ability in the mid-1970s, and became essentially useless in the last two decades. When forecasting inflation, instead, fewer predictors are significant (among which, notably, capacity utilization and unemployment), and their predictive ability significantly worsened around the time of the Great Moderation. |
| Keywords: | Output Forecasts, Inflation Forecasts, Model Selection, Structural Change, Forecast Evaluation, Real-time data. Evaluation |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duk:dukeec:08-5&r=cba |
| By: | Claude Lopez; Christian J. Murray; David H. Papell |
| Abstract: | Using median-unbiased estimation, recent research has questioned the validity of Rogoff’s “remarkable consensus” of 3-5 year half-lives of deviations from PPP. These half-life estimates, however, are based on estimates from regressions where the resulting unit root test has low power. We extend median-unbiased estimation to the DF-GLS regression of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996). We find that median-unbiased estimation based on this regression has the potential to tighten confidence intervals for half-lives. Using long horizon real exchange rate data, we find that the typical lower bound of the confidence intervals for median-unbiased half-lives is just under 3 years. Thus, while previous confidence intervals for half-lives are consistent with virtually anything, our tighter confidence intervals now rule out economic models with nominal rigidities as candidates for explaining the observed behavior of real exchange rates. Therefore, while we obtain more information using efficient unit root tests on longer term data, this information moves us away from solving the PPP puzzle. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cin:ucecwp:2008-05&r=cba |
| By: | Francesco Audrino; Marcelo C. Medeiros |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a smooth transition tree model for both the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the short-term interest rate process. Our model incorporates the interpretability of regression trees and the flexibility of smooth transition models to describe regime switches in the short-term interest rate series. The estimation of such models is addressed and the asymptotic properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator are derived. Model specification is also discussed. When the model is applied to the US short-term interest rate we find (1) leading indicators for inflation and real activity are the most relevant predictors in characterizing the multiple regimes' structure; (2) the optimal model has three limiting regimes, with significantly different local conditional mean and variance dynamics. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence of the strong power of the model in forecasting the first two conditional moments of the short rate process, in particular when it is used in connection with bootstrap aggregating (bagging). |
| Keywords: | Short-term interest rate, Regression tree, Smooth transition, Conditional variance, Bagging, Asymptotic theory |
| JEL: | C13 C22 C51 C53 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:dp2008:2008-16&r=cba |
| By: | Mark J. Holmes (Department of Economics, Waikato University Management School); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Jesus Otero (Facultad de Economia, Universidad del Rosario) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971 to 2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (i) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (ii) the identification of potential structural break s that might have occurred at different points in time. To address these concerns, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach that allows us to test the null hypothesis of joint stationarity with endogenously determined structural breaks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the EU countries considered are characterised by fiscal stationarity over the full sample period irrespective of us allowing for structural breaks. This conclusion also holds when analysing sub-periods based on before and after the Maastricht treaty. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous dynamic panels, fiscal sustainability, mean reversion, panel stationarity test. |
| JEL: | C33 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2008_07&r=cba |
| By: | Costas Karfakis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | The impact of the US international debt on the euro/dollar exchange rate is examined in the context of an Error Correction monetary model with rational expectations. Overall, the relative real income is the most economically significant determinant, whereas the debt is the most statistically significant determinant.. |
| Keywords: | Monetary model, US international debt, co-integration analysis, error correction model |
| JEL: | F31 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2008_06&r=cba |
| By: | Vítor Castro (Universidade do Minho - NIPE) |
| Abstract: | The Taylor rule establishes a simple linear relation between the interest rate, inflation and output gap. However, this relation may not be so simple. To get a deeper understanding of central banks' behaviour, this paper asks whether central banks are indeed following a linear Taylor rule or, instead, a nonlinear rule. At the same time, it also analyses whether that rule can be augmented with a financial conditions index containing information from some asset prices and financial variables. A forward-looking monetary policy reaction function is employed in the estimation of the linear and nonlinear models. A smooth transition model is used to estimate the nonlinear rule. The results indicate that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England tend to follow a nonlinear Taylor rule, but not the Federal Reserve of the United States. In particularm those two central banks tend to react to inflation only when inflation is above or outside their targets. Moreover, our evidence suggests that the European Central Bank is targeting financial conditions, contrary to the other two central banks. This lack of attention to the financial conditions might have made the United States and the United Kingdom more vulnerable to the recent credit crunch than the Eurozone. |
| Keywords: | Taylor rule; ECB monetary policy; Financial Conditions Index; Nonlinearity; Smooth transition regression models. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:19/2008&r=cba |
| By: | Christian Dreger; Jürgen Wolters |
| Abstract: | Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since several years. At the same time, the money demand function seems to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In fact, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 can be observed, and may reflect the exclusion of real and financial wealth in conventional specifications of money demand. This presumption is explored by means of a cointegration analysis. To separate income from wealth effects, the specification in terms of money velocity is preferred. Evidence for the presence of wealth in the long run relationship is provided. In particular, both stock and house prices have exerted a negative impact on velocity after 2001 and lead to almost identical equilibrium errors. The extended error correction model is stable over the entire sample period and survive a battery of specification tests. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration analysis, error correction, money demand, financial wealth, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C22 C52 E41 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp813&r=cba |
| By: | Francesco FURLANETTO |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to measure the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market. We apply the procedure of Rigobon and Sack (2003) to identify and estimate a VAR in the presence of heteroskedasticity. This procedure fully takes into account the endogeneity of interest rates and stock returns that is ignored in the traditional VAR literature. We find a positive and significant reaction in the US and the UK. However, since the end of the 1990s, in a period of large stock market fluctuations, this reaction declines in the US and disappears in the UK. In Japan and the EU, we do not find any reaction. We provide evidence that the lower response to stock prices in the last part of the sample in the US is compensated by a higher response to real estate prices. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; stock market; identifcation; VAR; heteroskedasticity |
| JEL: | E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lau:crdeep:08.02&r=cba |
| By: | Montiel, Peter J.; Serven, Luis |
| Abstract: | The view that policies directed at the real exchange rate can have an important effect on economic growth has been gaining adherents in recent years. Unlike the traditional"misalignment"view that temporary departures of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level harm growth by distorting a key relative price in the economy, the recent literature stresses the growth effects of the equilibrium real exchange rate itself, with the claim being that a depreciated equilibrium real exchange rate promotes economic growth. While there is no consensus on the precise channels through which this effect is generated, an increasingly common view in policy circles points to saving as the channel of transmission, with the claim that a depreciated real exchange rate raises the domestic saving rate -- which in turn stimulates growth by increasing the rate of capital accumulation. This paper offers a preliminary exploration of this claim. Drawing from standard analytical models, stylized facts on saving and real exchange rates, and existing empirical research on saving determinants, the paper assesses the link between the real exchange rate and saving. Overall, the conclusion is that saving is unlikely to provide the mechanism through which the real exchange rate affects growth. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomic Management,Economic Stabilization,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates |
| Date: | 2008–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4636&r=cba |
| By: | Foued Chihi; Michel Normandin |
| Abstract: | This paper documents and explains the positive comovement between external and budget deficits for several developing countries. First, the covariance estimated from post-1960 time-series data is numerically positive for each of the 24 countries and statistically significant for almost all cases. This is consistent with previous findings obtained from panel regressions. Second, the empirical covariance is close to that predicted from a tractable small open economy, overlapping generation model with heterogeneous goods. Also, the predicted covariance is induced by shocks which are closely related to internal conditions such as domestic resources and fiscal policies, and to a much lesser extent to external conditions such as the world interest rate, real exchange rate, and terms of trade. This structural analysis explaining the joint behavior of external and budget deficits sharply contrasts with earlier reduced-form studies characterizing the individual behavior of either the external deficit or budget deficit. |
| Keywords: | Covariance decomposition, dynamic responses, internal and external conditions, restricted vector autoregression, small open economy, overlapping generation model with heterogeneous goods |
| JEL: | E62 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0819&r=cba |
| By: | Iris Claus; Brandon Sloan |
| Abstract: | To help maintain price stability in New Zealand a countercyclical use of the goods and services tax (GST) has been proposed. This paper argues that a variable GST rate is unlikely to be a useful stabilisation tool for monetary policy. It first discusses some of the problems that would arise with the implementation of a variable GST rate. It then develops a stylised model of the New Zealand economy to assess the effects of using a variable GST rate as a monetary policy tool relative to the conventional instrument, an interest rate. The results show that a variable GST rate would be less effective in dampening business cycles than an interest rate. It would lead to larger adjustments in the policy instrument and fluctuations in the real economy and inflation. Moreover, a variable GST rate would produce greater welfare losses from monetary policy than an interest rate tool. |
| JEL: | E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:camaaa:2008-30&r=cba |