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on Central Banking |
| By: | Lars E.O. Svensson; Noah M. Williams |
| Abstract: | We study the problem of a policymaker who seeks to set policy optimally in an economy where the true economic structure is unobserved, and he optimally learns from observations of the economy. This is a classic problem of learning and control, variants of which have been studied in the past, but seldom with forward-looking variables which are a key component of modern policy-relevant models. As in most Bayesian learning problems, the optimal policy typically includes an experimentation component reflecting the endogeneity of information. We develop algorithms to solve numerically for the Bayesian optimal policy (BOP). However, computing the BOP is only feasible in relatively small models, and thus we also consider a simpler specification we term adaptive optimal policy (AOP) which allows policymakers to update their beliefs but shortcuts the experimentation motive. In our setting, the AOP is significantly easier to compute, and in many cases provides a good approximation to the BOP. We provide some simple examples to illustrate the role of learning and experimentation in an MJLQ framework. |
| JEL: | D81 E42 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13414&r=cba |
| By: | Cukierman, Alex |
| Abstract: | This is an extensive survey of worldwide developments in the area of monetary policymaking institutions during the second half of the twentieth century and beyond. In addition the last section discusses current open issues and future challenges. Section 2 reviews the changes that have occurred in the area of central bank independence (CBI) during the last twenty years, discusses reasons for those developments and provides an overview of accumulated empirical evidence on the relation between CBI and the performance of the economy. Section 3 discusses lessons from stabilization of inflation, reviews the evidence and implications of asymmetric central bank objectives and considers the issue of CBI within the broader context of choosing a nominal anchor. Section 4 reviews the impact of effective conservativeness (or independence) on economic performance in the presence of labour unions. A main insight is that, in the presence of large wage setters, CBI affects real variables like the rate of unemployment implying that conservativeness affects economic performance even in the long run. Section 5 considers future challenges facing modern central banks. The discussion presumes that CBI and price stability are here to stay and focuses on issues relating to the conduct of monetary policy by independent central banks in an era of price stability. The section discusses the risks associated with flexible inflation targeting, issues of accountability and transparency and the impact of central bank capital and finances on its independence. |
| Keywords: | central bank independence; economic performance; monetary institutions and future challenges; nominal anchors |
| JEL: | E31 E50 E52 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6441&r=cba |
| By: | John H. Cochrane |
| Abstract: | The new-Keynesian, Taylor-rule theory of inflation determination relies on explosive dynamics. By raising interest rates in response to inflation, the Fed does not directly stabilize future inflation. Rather, the Fed threatens hyperinflation, unless inflation jumps to one particular value on each date. However, there is nothing in economics to rule out hyperinflationary or deflationary solutions. Therefore, inflation is just as indeterminate under "active" interest rate targets as it is under standard fixed interest rate targets. Inflation determination requires ingredients beyond an interest-rate policy that follows the Taylor principle. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13409&r=cba |
| By: | John H. Cochrane |
| Abstract: | The parameters of the Taylor rule relating interest rates to inflation and other variables are not identified in new-Keynesian models. Thus, Taylor rule regressions cannot be used to argue that the Fed conquered inflation by moving from a "passive" to an "active" policy in the early 1980s. |
| JEL: | E3 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13410&r=cba |
| By: | David K. Backus; Jonathan H. Wright |
| Abstract: | From 2004 to 2006, the FOMC raised the target federal funds rate by 4.25%, yet long-maturity yields and forward rates fell. We consider several possible explanations for this "conundrum." The most likely, in our view, is a fall in the term premium, probably associated with some combination of diminished macroeconomic and financial market volatility, more predictable monetary policy, and the state of the business cycle. |
| JEL: | E43 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13419&r=cba |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; Francesco Lippi |
| Abstract: | We document cash management patterns for households that are at odds with the predictions of deterministic inventory models that abstract from precautionary motives. We extend the Baumol-Tobin cash inventory model to a dynamic environment that allows for the possibility of withdrawing cash at random times at a low cost. This modification introduces a precautionary motive for holding cash and naturally captures developments in withdrawal technology, such as the increasing diffusion of bank branches and ATM terminals. We characterize the solution of the model and show that qualitatively it is able to reproduce the empirical patterns. Estimating the structural parameters we show that the model quantitatively accounts for key features of the data. The estimates are used to quantify the expenditure and interest rate elasticity of money demand, the impact of financial innovation on money demand, the welfare cost of inflation, the gains of disinflation and the benefit of ATM ownership. |
| JEL: | E31 E4 E41 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13416&r=cba |
| By: | Alvarez, Fernando E; Lippi, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We extend the Baumol-Tobin cash inventory model to a dynamic environment, which allows for the possibility of withdrawing cash at random times at a low cost. This modification captures developments in withdrawal technology, such as the increasing diffusion of bank branches and ATM terminals. We document cash management patterns for households that are at odds with the predictions of deterministic inventory models that abstract from precautionary motives. We characterize the solution of the model and show that qualitatively it is able to reproduce such patterns. Estimating the structural parameters we show that the model accounts for key features of the data. The estimates are used to quantify the expenditure and interest rate elasticity of money demand, the impact of financial innovation on money demand, the welfare cost of inflation, the gains of disinflation and the benefit of ATM ownership. |
| Keywords: | inventory models; money demand; technological progress |
| JEL: | E5 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6472&r=cba |
| By: | Oreste Tristani (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants of the natural rate of interest in a non-linear model where agents are uncertain over both future technology growth and the future course of monetary policy. I show that the real natural rate can be affected by sizable uncertainty premia, including premia associated with monetary uncertainty. This result is potentially problematic for both the estimation of the natural rate and its use as a policy indicator. Monetary uncertainty can also contribute to amplify the equity premium, and to account for its apparent, positive link with inflation. JEL Classification: E43, G11. |
| Keywords: | Natural rate of interest, equity premium puzzle, risk-free rate puzzle, robust control, model misspecification. |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070808&r=cba |
| By: | Keith Kuester (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.); Gernot J. Müller (Goethe University Frankfurt, Senckenberganlage 31, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Sarah Stölting (European University Institute, Villa Sao Paolo, via della Piazzuola 43, 50133 Florence, Italy.) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic data suggest that the New Keynesian Phillips curve is quite flat - despite microeconomic evidence implying frequent price adjustments. While real rigidities may help to account for the conflicting evidence, we propose an alternative explanation - if price markup/cost-push shocks are persistent and negatively correlated with the labor share, the latter being a widely used measure for marginal costs, the estimated pass-through of measured marginal costs into inflation is limited, even if prices are fairly flexible. Using a standard New Keynesian model, we show that the GMM approach to the New Keynesian Phillips curve leads to inconsistent and upward biased estimates if cost-push shocks indeed are persistent. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the bias is quite sizeable - we find average price durations estimated as high as 12 quarters, when the true value is about 2 quarters. Moreover, alternative estimators appear to be biased as well, while standard diagnostic tests fail to signal a misspecification of the model. JEL Classification: E31, E32, C22. |
| Keywords: | Price Rigidities, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Cost-push shocks, GMM estimation. |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070809&r=cba |
| By: | Luis J. Álvarez (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is now the dominant model of inflation dynamics. In recent years, a large body of empirical research has documented price-setting behaviour at the individual level, allowing the assessment of the micro-foundations of pricing models. This paper analyses the implications of 25 theoretical models in terms of individual behaviour and finds that they considerably differ in their ability to match the key micro stylised facts. However, none is available to account for all of them, suggesting the need to develop more realistic micro-founded price setting models. |
| Keywords: | Pricing models, micro data, Phillips Curve, hazard rate |
| JEL: | E31 D40 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:0729&r=cba |
| By: | Christian Merkl (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, University of Kiel and IZA); Dennis J. Snower (Kiel Institute for the World Economy, University of Kiel and IZA) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the influence of wage and price staggering on monetary persistence. We show that, for plausible parameter values, wage and price staggering are complementary in generating monetary persistence. We do so by proposing the new measure of "quantitative inertia," after discussing weaknesses of the "contract multiplier," a standard measure of monetary persistence. The existence of complementarities means that beyond understanding how wage and price staggering work in isolation, it is important to investigate their interactions. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that the degree of monetary persistence generated by wage vis-à-vis price staggering depends on the relative competitiveness of the labor and product markets. We show that the conventional finding that wage staggering generates more persistence than price staggering holds under homogenous capital accumulation. Under firm-specific capital, wage staggering generates more persistence only when the labor market is sufficiently competitive relative to the product market. |
| Keywords: | monetary persistence, price staggering, wage staggering, firm-specific capital |
| JEL: | E40 E50 E52 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3033&r=cba |
| By: | Céline Poilly (Banque de France, DGEI-DIR, Service de Recherche en économie et finance, and University of Cergy-Pontoise,THEMA) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the identification assumptions of monetary policy shocks modify the inference in a standard DSGE model. Considering SVAR models in which either the interest rate is predetermined for money or these two monetary variables are simultaneously determined, two DSGE models are estimated by Minimum Distance Estimation. We emphasize that real balance effects are necessary to replicate the high persistence implied by the simultaneity assumption. In addition, the estimated monetary policy rule is strongly sensitive to the identification scheme. This suggests that the way to introduce money in the identification scheme is not neutral for estimation of DSGE models. |
| Keywords: | SVAR model; DSGE model; Non recursive identification; Money. |
| JEL: | E41 E52 C52 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2007-23&r=cba |
| By: | Philip R. Lane; Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti |
| Abstract: | Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios, emphasizing both trade and financial channels. Finally, we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual European economies to external adjustment shocks. |
| Keywords: | Financial integration, capital flows, external assets and liabilities |
| Date: | 2007–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp226&r=cba |
| By: | Philip R. Lane; Jay C. Shambaugh |
| Abstract: | Our goal in this project is to gain a better empirical understanding of the international financial implications of currency movements. To this end, we construct a database of international currency exposures for a large panel of countries over 1990-2004. We show that trade-weighted exchange rate indices are insufficient to understand the financial impact of currency movements. Further, we demonstrate that many developing countries hold short foreign-currency positions, leaving them open to negative valuation effects when the domestic currency depreciates. However, we also show that many of these countries have substantially reduced their foreign currency exposure over the last decade. Last, we show that our currency measure has high explanatory power for the valuation term in net foreign asset dynamics: exchange rate valuation shocks are sizable, not quickly reversed and may entail substantial wealth shocks. |
| Keywords: | Financial integration, capital flows, external assets and liabilities |
| Date: | 2007–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp229&r=cba |
| By: | Christopher Martin (Brunel University); Costas Milas (Keele University, Centre for Economic Research and School of Economic and Management Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that existing empirical models of interest rate rules are too simplistic. The hybrid Phillips curve implies that policymakers should respond to both current and expected future inflation rates, in contrast to existing models. We provide evidence that UK policymakers do this. |
| Keywords: | Optimal monetary policy; inflation persistence; Phillips curve |
| JEL: | C51 C52 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kee:kerpuk:2007/12&r=cba |
| By: | Szilárd Erhart; Harmen Lehment; Jose L. Vasquez Paz |
| Abstract: | Previous research on the optimal size of a monetary policy committee (MPC) focused on theoretical analyses and experimental studies. These studies suggest that the ideal monetary policy committee may not have many more than five members. In this paper we conduct an empirical cross-country study to explore whether there is a link between the size of an MPC and inflation volatility. The analysis for 75 countries which have adopted MPCs provides some support for the above suggestion: countries with less than five MPC members tend to have larger deviations from trend inflation than MPCs with five members; raising the number of MPC members above five does not contribute to a further reduction in volatility. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Committee; Inflation Volatility |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1377&r=cba |
| By: | Roger E. A. Farmer |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of a broader project that provides a microfoundation to the General Theory of J.M. Keynes. I call this project 'old Keynesian economics' to distinguish it from new-Keynesian economics, a theory that is based on the idea that to make sense of Keynes we must assume that prices are sticky. I describe a multi-good model in which I interpret the definitions of aggregate demand and supply found in the General Theory through the lens of a search theory of the labor market. I argue that Keynes' aggregate supply curve can be interpreted as the aggregate of a set of first order conditions for the optimal choice of labor and, using this interpretation, I reintroduce a diagram that was central to the textbook teaching of Keynesian economics in the immediate post-war period. |
| JEL: | E12 E2 E24 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13406&r=cba |
| By: | Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Swanson, Eric T |
| Abstract: | We study the convergence of European bond markets and the anchoring of inflation expectations in euro area countries using high-frequency bond yield data for France, Germany, Italy and Spain. We find that Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has led to substantial convergence in euro area sovereign bond markets in terms of interest rate levels, unconditional daily fluctuations, and conditional responses to major macroeconomic data announcements. Our findings also suggest a substantial increase in the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations since EMU, particularly for Italy and Spain, which since monetary union have seen their long-term interest rates become much lower, much less volatile, and much better anchored in response to news. Finally, the reaction of far-ahead forward interest rates to macroeconomic announcements has converged substantially across euro area countries and even been eliminated over time, thus underlining not only market integration but also the credibility that financial markets attach to monetary policy in the euro area. |
| Keywords: | anchoring; bond markets; convergence; credibility; EMU; euro area; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6456&r=cba |
| By: | Arnaud Mehl (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.); Lorenzo Cappiello (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) at distant horizons for the US and its main trading partners, including both mature and emerging market economies, also exploring the existence of nonlinearities. At long and medium horizons, it finds support in favour of the standard, linear, specification of UIP for dollar rates vis-à-vis major floating currencies, but not vis-à-vis emerging market currencies. Moreover, the paper finds evidence that, not only yield differentials widen, but that US bond yields do react in anticipation of exchange rate movements, notably when these take place vis-à-vis major floating currencies. Last, the paper detects signs of nonlinearities in UIP at the medium term horizon for dollar rates vis-à-vis some of the major floating currencies, albeit surrounded by some uncertainty. JEL Classification: E43, F31, F41. |
| Keywords: | Uncovered interest parity, distant horizon, emerging economies, nonlinearities. |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070801&r=cba |
| By: | Steven Pennings; Rod Tyers |
| Abstract: | The 1990s appreciation of the US$ has been blamed on the “irrational exuberance” of investors in the US IT boom. A core of these investors appeared to believe that technology-related productivity growth (due, in part, to knowledge spill-over externalities) would raise the relative US rate of return over a sustained period. This paper introduces a two country, dynamic general equilibrium model with international financial capital mobility and trade to investigate the conditions under which a single technology shock could cause such a sustained change in capital flows. We find that a once-off productivity shock, whether in the presence of (small-medium) externalities or not, leads to capital inflow and a real appreciation in the short term but is followed in the long term by a stabilisation of the capital account and a net depreciation of the real exchange rate. For a single shock to trigger long-term growth in relative capital returns appears to require unrealistically large externalities. The presence of adaptive expectations can lead to persistence and cyclical behaviour in the real exchange rate and current account. |
| JEL: | F21 F31 F32 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:camaaa:2007-16&r=cba |
| By: | Martin Menner |
| Abstract: | Search frictions in the goods market have proven to be a fruitful deviation from the fiction of a centralized Walrasian market providing a micro-foundation of the use of money as a medium of exchange. Moreover, persistent propagation of monetary shocks can arise in search-theoretic monetary models through the interaction of search-frictions in the goods and labor markets, and inventory holdings. Here, a search-theoretic monetary DSGE model with capital and inventory investment is estimated, and its implications on output and inflation dynamics are contrasted with those of standard flexible price monetary models: a cash-in-advance and a portfolio adjustment cost model. Model estimation and comparison is conducted in a Bayesian way in order to account for possible model misspecification. The search model can track inflation and output data better, as well as it dominates the other models in the ability to predict the autocorrelations of inflation and the persistent disinflation process after a technology shock. It generates a hump-shaped but not strong enough output response to a monetary shock. Current and near current correlations between output growth inflation are predicted well. |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:we076235&r=cba |
| By: | Todd E. Clark; Michael W. McCracken |
| Abstract: | Small-scale VARs are widely used in macroeconomics for forecasting U.S. output, prices, and interest rates. However, recent work suggests these models may exhibit instabilities. As such, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be used to improve their forecast accuracy. These include using different observation windows for estimation, intercept correction, time-varying parameters, break dating, Bayesian shrinkage, model averaging, etc. This paper compares the effectiveness of such methods in real time forecasting. We use forecasts from univariate time series models, the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook as benchmarks. |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2007-41&r=cba |
| By: | Georges Prat (EconomiX - [CNRS : UMR7166] - [Université de Paris X - Nanterre]); Remzi Uctum (EconomiX - [CNRS : UMR7166] - [Université de Paris X - Nanterre]) |
| Abstract: | Using financial experts’ Yen/USD exchange rate expectations provided by Consensus Forecasts surveys, this paper aims to model the 3 and 12-month ahead ex-ante risk premia, measured as the difference between the expected and forward exchange rates. The condition of predictability of returns implies that the variance of the rate of change in exchange rate is horizon-dependent and this is a sufficient condition for agents not to require at any time a risk premium but a set of premia scaled by the time horizon of the investment. Moreover, using a two-step portfolio decision making process framework, we show that each premium depends on the net market position related to the maturity of the asset considered. Since the time-varying real net market positions are unobservable, they have been estimated through a state space model using the Kalman filter methodology. We find that a two-country portfolio asset pricing model explains satisfactorily both the common and the specific time-patterns of the 3- and 12-month ex-ante premia. |
| Keywords: | Risk premium; foreign exchange market |
| Date: | 2007–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00173109_v1&r=cba |
| By: | Marius Jurgilas (University of Connecticut and Elon University) |
| Abstract: | The consensus view is that central banks under currency boards do not have tools for active monetary policy. In this paper, we analyze the foreign exchange fee as a monetary policy instrument that can be used by a central bank under a currency board. We develop a general equilibrium model showing that changes in this fee may have the same effects as a change in the monetary policy stance. Thus central banks under the currency board are shown to have an avenue to implement active monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | interbank market, monetary policy, currency board |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2007-34&r=cba |
| By: | John Lewis; Karsten Staehr |
| Abstract: | Following the Maastricht criteria, a country seeking to join the European Monetary Union cannot have inflation in excess of 1.5 percent plus the average inflation in the three \"best performing\" EU countries. This inflation reference value is a non-increasing function of the number of EU members. Looking backwards, the effect of increasing the number of EU countries from 15 to 27 would have been sizeable in 2003 and 2004, but relatively modest since 2005. Monte Carlo simulations show that the expansion of the EU from 15 to 27 members reduces the expected inflation reference value by 0.15-0.2 percentage points, but with a considerable probability of a larger reduction. The treatment of countries with negative inflation in the calculation of the reference value has a major impact on the results |
| Keywords: | Maastricht Treaty, European Monetary Union, inflation, convergence |
| JEL: | E31 E42 E63 |
| Date: | 2007–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2007-11&r=cba |
| By: | Menkhoff, Lukas; Rebitzky, Rafael |
| Abstract: | How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon regressions show that investor sentiment is connected with exchange rate returns at longer horizons, i.e. more than two years. Second, sentiment is cointegrated with fundamentals, whereas third, this relation becomes stronger, the larger exchange rate's misalignment from long-run PPP. In sum, investor sentiment's behavior in the US-dollar market closely matches with established facts of empirical exchange rate research. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rates, investor sentiment, long-horizon regression, threshold VECM |
| JEL: | F31 G14 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-376&r=cba |
| By: | Kelly, Logan |
| Abstract: | Aggregation theoretic measures of the capital stock of money have in the past been criticized for their dependence on future expectations. I attempt to answer some of those objections by using several forecasting methods to generate expectations needed for calculating the economic stock of money. I show that targeted factor model forecasting improves the accuracy of monetary capital stock measurements slightly. However, I also find, as has previous research, that monetary capital stock calculations are robust to assumptions about future expectation. I believe these findings tend to support the conclusion that concerns about the dependency of theoretical monetary stock aggregates on forecasted future expectations have been overstated. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Aggregation; Money Stoc; ; Economic Stock of Money; Targeted Factor Models |
| JEL: | E49 |
| Date: | 2007–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4914&r=cba |
| By: | Tommaso Proietti (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.); Alberto Musso (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.) |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with the estimation of euro area potential output growth and its decomposition according to the sources of growth. The growth accounting exercise is based on a multivariate structural time series model which combines the decomposition of total output according to the production function approach with price and wage equations that embody Phillips type relationships linking inflation and nominal wage dynamics to the output gap and cyclical unemployment, respectively. Assuming a Cobb-Douglas technology with constant returns to scale, potential output results from the combination of the trend levels of total factor productivity and factor inputs, capital and labour(hours worked), which is decomposed into labour intensity (average hours worked), the employment rate, the participation rate, and population of working age. The nominal variables (prices and wages)play an essential role in defining the trend levels of the components of potential output, as the latter should pose no inflationary pressures on prices and wages. The structural model is further extended to allow for the estimation of potential output growth and the decomposition according to the sources of growth at different horizons (long-run, medium run and short run); in particular, we propose and evaluate a model–based approach to the extraction of the low–pass component of potential output growth at different cutoff frequencies. The approach has two important advantages - the signal extraction filters have an automatic adaptation property at the boundaries of the sample period, so that the real time estimates do not suffer from what is often referred to as the ”end–of–sample bias”. Secondly, it is possible to assess the uncertainty of potential output growth estimates with different degrees of smoothness. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E32, O47. |
| Keywords: | Potential output, Output gap, Euro area, Unobserved components, Production function approach, Low-pass filters. |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20070804&r=cba |
| By: | Komulainen, Tuomas (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines currency crisis theories and applies them in searching for the main causes of the Russian crisis. We first study the determination of the exchange rate and then the first and second generation theories on currency crisis and finally the recent theoretical discussions of the Asian crisis. The main reason for the Russian crisis was the long-standing federal budget deficit. During the last years the deficits were financed mainly via short-term domestic debt. This created expectations of government insolvency and central bank financing. Moreover, the Russian economy has its own basic weaknesses, which render the country incapable of growth and prone to crisis. The Asian crisis was a trigger for the Russian crisis. Lower prices for Russian export products, inadequate financial regulations and lack of information in emerging markets in general are factors explaining this contagion effect. But the main mistakes that led to the crisis were those of the Russians themselves - the federal budget deficits. Thus the repair work should also start from there. |
| Keywords: | currency crisis; Russia; budget; contagion |
| Date: | 2007–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:1999_001&r=cba |
| By: | Sarajevs, Vadims (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | An integrated stochastic macroeconomic model of transition economy at the early stage of reforms with optimising representative risk averse agents is constructed. The equilibrium growth rate of the economy, real asset returns, domestic money demand, and expected inflation rate are determined as functions of the exogenous risks in the economy. The main issue addressed are: domestic money demand, currency substitution ratio, expected rate of inflation, real asset returns, the equilibrium growth rate of the economy as well as government ability to control these variables. Analysis of the model finds that the equilibrium growth rate of the economy is not independent on the monetary and fiscal policies but can be affected by the government through its ability to fix the real cost of capital for the firm, expenditure and monetary policy parameters. |
| JEL: | D80 D90 E41 E44 E52 F41 O11 O23 |
| Date: | 2007–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:1999_007&r=cba |
| By: | Korhonen , Iikka (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | Straightforward exchange rate arrangements known as currency boards have gained popularity during the past dec-ade. Among transition economies, Estonia first introduced a currency board in 1992, followed by Lithuania in 1994 and Bulgaria in 1997. Currency boards have been useful in achieving macroeconomic stabilization, and they may have helped the Baltics become the first countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) to achieve economic growth after the slump in production of the early 1990s. Moreover, Baltic inflation performance has been substantially better than in other FSU countries. Both in Estonia and Lithuania, the present exchange rate system has been ac-companied by strong real appreciation of the currency. Both in Estonia and Lithuania the present exchange rate system has been accompanied by strong real appreciation of the currency, although it is widely accepted that the currencies were very much undervalued at the beginning of their pegs. However, if rapid real appreciation is ac-companied with increases in the labor productivity, the present pegs can be maintained. Banking crises in Estonia and Lithuania have not been particularly severe, so apparently rigid currency pegs have not been accompanied by excessive financial sector instability. The tight fiscal policies pursued in both countries, especially Estonia, have been instrumental to the success of these currency board arrangements. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate; currency board; Baltic countries |
| JEL: | E50 E60 P20 |
| Date: | 2007–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:1999_006&r=cba |
| By: | Elcyon C. R. Lima; Alexis Maka; Mário Mendonça |
| Abstract: | This article estimates the monetary policy rule followed by the Brazilian Central Bank for setting its main policy instrument, the SELIC rate, for the period after the Real Plan. In order to overcome the uncertainty over the dates at which changes in parameters occurred, this paper uses regime-dependent-switching probabilities according to a hidden Markov chain to model possible deviations from a simple linear reaction function. From July 1996 to January 2006 the Brazilian monetary policy can be fully characterized by four policy regimes. The changes in monetary policy in this period are best described by recurring regime changes, instead of once-and-for-all shifts. We have identified substantial differences in the way monetary policy was conducted in the subperiods before and after 1999, when the Brazilian exchange rate policy regime changed from crawling peg to free-floating. At each of these subperiods there are two recurring regimes and the two regimes of one subperiod differ from the two regimes of the other. |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1285&r=cba |
| By: | Ayla Ogus (Department of Economics, Izmir University of Economics); Niloufer Sohrabji (Department of Economics, Simmons College) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the Turkish current account between 1992 and 2004 within an intertemporal benchmark model. Increasingly larger current account deficits in the Turkish economy have caused a great level of discussion of the current account but it has mainly focused on the real exchange rate and short-term international competitiveness. However, changes in the fundamentals of the Turkish economy warrant a longer term approach in the analysis. This paper computes the optimal consumption smoothing current account using the intertemporal benchmark model (IBM) and tests for intertemporal solvency of the current account. We find consumption tilting dynamics are in effect. As expected of borrowing developing countries, Turkey tilts consumption to the present. We find support for one of the implications of the IBM, that the current account Granger-causes future changes in national cash flow as implied by the intertemporal benchmark model. However, we also find that the actual consumption smoothing current account is considerably more volatile than the optimal consumption smoothing current account suggesting that speculative forces have driven capital movements during the sample period. From the trends in data and the model and testable implications we believe that although Turkey breached the intertemporal solvency condition in the 1990s, this is not true for Turkey in the period following the 2001 crisis. Therefore, we conclude that changed fundamentals in Turkey have made the high current account deficits sustainable. |
| Keywords: | Current account sustainability, intertemporal benchmark model, Turkey |
| JEL: | F32 F37 F41 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:izm:wpaper:0601&r=cba |