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on Business Economics |
| By: | Emin Dinlersoz; Timothy Dunne; John C. Haltiwanger; Veronika Penciakova |
| Abstract: | The business entry literature typically observes firms only at the first hire. We provide a new perspective using linked administrative microdata tracking the universe of U.S. business applications and their transition into employer firms. We model entry as a two-stage process: pursuit of a business idea (proxied by a business application) and implementation (transition). Results show these margins are distinct and associate differently with local conditions. While both margins matter, high-startup locations are characterized by high application intensity, whereas low-startup locations exhibit low transition rates, suggesting geographic disparities in entry arise from different dynamics at each stage of the entrepreneurial process. |
| JEL: | L26 M13 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34881 |
| By: | Virginia Minni (University of Chicago); Kieu-Trang Nguyen (University of Melbourne); Heather Sarsons (University of Chicago); Carla Srebot (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how managers’ gender attitudes shape workplace culture and gender inequality. Using data from a multinational firm operating in over 100 countries, we leverage cross-country manager rotations to identify the effects of male managers’ gender attitudes on gender pay gaps within a team. Managers from countries with one standard deviation more progressive gender attitudes reduce the pay gap by 5 percentage points (18%), largely through higher promotion rates for women. These effects persist after managers rotate out and are strongest in more conservative countries. Managers with progressive attitudes also influence the local office culture, as local managers who interact with but are not under the purview of the foreign manager begin to have smaller pay gaps in their teams. Our evidence points to individual managers as critical in shaping corporate culture. |
| Keywords: | managers, gender gaps, corporate culture, multinationals |
| JEL: | J16 J24 F23 M14 M5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-22 |
| By: | Ritsuko Iseki (UTokyo Economic Consulting); Daisuke Miyakawa (Waseda University); Shigehiro Shinozaki (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper dissects the impact of United States (US) tariffs introduced in 2025 on firm exports, concentrating on heterogeneity. Using comprehensive export customs data to the US from six selected Asian countries from January 2024 to August 2025, we confirm that for the first few months after tariffs were announced, export prices fell slightly, compressing profit margins, while the values and export quantities were not largely affected. In terms of the extensive margin, there was on average no systematic increase in short-run exit from exports to the US. Second, exporters of products with higher (lower) demand elasticity lowered prices before tariffs to a larger (smaller) extent. Third, based on Philippine export customs data, micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) showed more uniform and deeper price cuts that resulted in lower exit rates on average even as their market access admittedly weakened for easily substituted products. In contrast, larger firms continued participation using more flexible and product specific adjustments. Together, these results suggest that tariffs substantially compressed margins among MSMEs over the short run in order to maintain US export levels. |
| Keywords: | tariffs;firm dynamics;heterogeneity;demand elasticity;MSME exports;global supply chain |
| JEL: | D22 F13 F14 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022298 |
| By: | Loren Brandt; Feitao Jiang; Yao Luo; Yingjun Su |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the geographic distribution of supply and demand shapes market power in the Chinese steel industry. Drawing on novel data, we develop and estimate an equilibrium model that accommodates spatial demand variations and rich firm heterogeneity—encompassing differences in location, product quality, production coefficients, and cost efficiencies. Using this framework, we simulate the impact of shifts in downstream demand and evaluate the welfare implications of mergers under various market frictions—an issue central to China’s industrial policy. We show that consolidation design is central to welfare outcomes: mergers led by more efficient firms and confined within regions generate substantially larger gains than nationally coordinated consolidation centered on large incumbents. The realized 2018–2024 merger wave achieved only a fraction of attainable welfare improvements. Our simulation results also suggest that as the geographic locus of demand evolves, the effects of industrial reorganization hinge critically on how supply adjusts across regions. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Differentiation, Capacity Misalignment, Market Power, Merger Analysis, Sales Aggregation |
| JEL: | G34 L13 L61 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-820 |
| By: | Klaus Abberger; Arbërim Bibaj; Hans Gersbach; Alexis Perakis; Alexander Rathke; Samad Sarferaz; Kieran Walsh |
| Abstract: | We study how firms’ expectations respond to prospective tariff shocks using a randomized survey experiment among Swiss manufacturing firms. When confronted with potential U.S. tariffs, respondents expect sizable declines in turnover and investment, yet anticipate increases in ex-tariff export prices despite falling demand. This combination of declining activity and rising prices runs counter to the standard prediction of trade models, in which tariffs reduce foreign demand and put downward pressure on exporters’ prices. The observed pattern is consistent with a destination-specific cost-push mechanism, whereby tariffs raise exporters’ marginal costs through compliance burdens, logistical frictions, or reduced scale. Embedding firms’ stated price and sales expectations in a parsimonious structural pricing model, we quantify the implied cost changes and recover sector-level demand elasticities. The estimates indicate substantial heterogeneity across industries and are, on average, consistent with short-run trade elasticities from the recent literature. Moreover, we corroborate the experimental evidence using panel survey data on firms’ expectations around an unexpected U.S. tariff announcement. |
| Keywords: | international trade, tariffs, firm expectations, pricing, cost pass-through |
| JEL: | F13 D22 E31 D84 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12510 |
| By: | Bricongne, Jean-Charles; Meunier, Baptiste; Macalos, Joao; Milis, Julia; Pical, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) – a short-lived pollutant primarily emitted by fossil fuel combustion – can improve the forecasting of oil demand. After retrieving, cleaning, and aggregating daily satellite data, we integrate NO₂ into a range of forecasting models. Across a panel of advanced and emerging economies, we find that including NO₂ significantly enhances nowcasting accuracy relative to benchmark models based on autoregressive terms and traditional predictors such as industrial activity, prices, weather, and vehicle registrations. Accuracy gains are particularly strong during crisis episodes but remain present in more stable times. Non-linear models, especially neural networks, yield the largest improvements, highlighting the non-linear link between energy demand and pollution. By offering a timely, globally consistent, and freely available proxy, satellite-based NO₂ data provide a valuable new tool for real-time monitoring of oil dema JEL Classification: C51, C81, E23, E37 |
| Keywords: | big data, energy consumption, machine learning, nowcasting, satellite data |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263198 |
| By: | Laudage, Sabine; Riedel, Nadine; Schmidt, Katharina; Strohmaier, Kristina; Voget, Johannes; Wickel, Sophia |
| Abstract: | In recent years, a growing number of countries have enacted tax rules that require multinational enterprises (MNEs) to document their intra-firm trade prices and show that they are set as in third-party trade. The objective of these rules is to limit opportunities for strategic trade mis-pricing and profit shifting to lower-tax affiliates. In this paper, we study the regulations' fiscal and real effects. Testing ground is the introduction of transfer pricing (TP) documentation rules in France in 2010. Drawing on rich firm-level data, we show that affected MNEs reduced their outward profit shifting from France, while simultaneously lowering real investments in the country. Outside of France, treated MNEs decreased their real economic activity at low-tax (but not at high-tax) group locations. |
| Keywords: | multinational firm, corporate taxation, profit shifting |
| JEL: | F21 F23 H25 H26 H87 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:337486 |
| By: | Anastasia, Giacomo (Columbia University); Boeri, Tito (Bocconi University); Zholud, Oleksandr (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use these data to document one of the largest labor supply and reallocation shocks in recent history and to estimate the impact on job matching, showing how labor markets adapt under extreme stress. The labor force shrank by about one fourth, yet vacancy filling rates and matching efficiency declined modestly. Only along the frontline and in occupied regions there is evidence of labor market shutdowns. Wage flexibility, adaptability of recruitment policies of firms, and remote working help explain the resiliency of labor outcomes. Recovering longer-term human capital losses suffered by Ukraine will require a mix of tools going well beyond labor policies and should be a priority for the reconstruction phase. |
| Keywords: | labor supply shock, reallocation, vacancy filling rate, wartime economy |
| JEL: | J22 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18363 |
| By: | Scott R. Baker; Nicholas Bloom; Stephanie G. Johnson; Jana Obradović |
| Abstract: | Conducting a new survey on the Nielsen Consumer panel we examine the impact of working from home (WFH) on shopping, finding three key results. First, WFH changed shopping modes, increasing online shopping and the fraction of trips to stores on weekdays. Second, WFH increased total spending through increased product quantity and range, tilting expenditure towards food and general merchandise and away from health and beauty products. Finally, WFH increased prices paid by shoppers and lowered price elasticities due to a move towards higher-cost products and lower deal usage. The change in prices paid is concentrated among married households, driven by a redistribution of shopping responsibility within the household, especially when the new remote worker is male. We find that remote workers engage in more shopping trips but fewer minutes of shopping. Our results suggest that shifting to remote work increases prices paid for groceries by about 1%, highlighting how WFH is impacting households, retail and inflation. |
| JEL: | G0 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34883 |