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on Business Economics |
| By: | Ejermo, Olof (CIRCLE, Lund University); Xiao, Jing (CIRCLE, Lund University and Department of Economic History, Lund University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between the survival performance of new technologybased firms (NTBFs) over the business cycle and compare them against other entrepreneurial firms. Our data comprise the entire population of entrepreneurial firms entering the Swedish economy from 1991 to 2002, which we follow until 2007. Discrete-time duration models are employed to investigate whether the business cycle impacts differently on the survival likelihood of NTBFs vs. other entrepreneurial firms. Our main findings are three. First, NTBFs generally experience a lower hazard rate compared to other entrepreneurial firms. Second, all entrepreneurial firms are sensitive to, and follow a pro-cyclical pattern of survival likelihood over the business cycle. Three, when comparing NTBFs with firms without self-employees we find that NTBFs are more sensitive to business cycle fluctuations |
| Keywords: | new technology-based firms; exit; survival probability; the business cycle; discrete-time duration models; Sweden |
| JEL: | E32 L25 L26 O33 |
| Date: | 2013–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_019&r=bec |
| By: | Régis Breton (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Sébastien Galanti (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans); Christophe Hurlin (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans); Anne-Gaël Vaubourg (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954) |
| Abstract: | We study whether financial analysts' concern for preserving good relationships with firms' managers motivates them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. Based on a dataset of one-yearahead EPS forecasts issued by 4 648 analysts concerning 241 French firms (1997-2007), we regress the analysts' forecast accuracy on its unintentional determinants. We then decompose the fixed effect of the regression and we use the firm-analyst pair effect as a measure of the intensity of the firm-analyst relationship. We find that a low (high) firm-analyst pair effect is associated with a low (high) forecast error. This observation suggests that pessimism and optimism result from the analysts' concern for cultivating their relationship with the firm's management. |
| Keywords: | financial analysts, earnings forecasts, soft information, panel regression. |
| Date: | 2013–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00862996&r=bec |
| By: | Mario Forni; Luca Gambetti; Luca Sala |
| Abstract: | A structural Factor-Augmented VAR model is used to evaluate the role of "news" shocks in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VAR models are affected by "non-fundamentalness" and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a smaller role in explaining the business cycle than previously found in the literature; (iii) their effects are essentially in line with what predicted by standard theories; (iv) a substantial fraction of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology. JEL classification: C32, E32, E62. Keywords: Factor-augmented VAR, news shocks, invertibility, fundamentalness. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:491&r=bec |
| By: | Gilles Dufrénot (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Benjamin Keddad (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries' business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycles correlation trying to disentangle between regional spillover effects (expansion and recession phases among the ASEAN-5 are correlated) and global spillovers where the business cycles of other countries (China, Japan and the US) play an important role in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate over time and across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5 countries' individual business cycles. |
| Keywords: | OCA; East Asia; business cycle synchronization; monetary union; markov-switching |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00861901&r=bec |
| By: | Svaleryd, Helena (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The business cycle is likely to be of importance for self-employment rates. When the economy is growing, business opportunities open up and encourage the set-up of new firms. In downturns, self-employment may be a way to avoid unemployment. The strength of these pull and push factors may depend on the amount of human capital a person has. The findings in this paper show that although the local business cycle is of minor importance for total self-employment rates in Sweden, there are heterogeneous effects across groups. People with higher human capital endowments are more likely to be pulled into self-employment, while those with lower human capital endowments are to a larger extent pushed into self-employment. This pattern is particularly strong for women. |
| Keywords: | Self-employment; local business cycle; panel data |
| JEL: | J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_015&r=bec |
| By: | J. Herstad , Sverre (University of Agder); Ebersberger , Bernd (MCI Management Center Innsbruck,Austria) |
| Abstract: | Knowledge intensive business services firms can play a key role in modern economies by linking localized collaboration networks to global knowledge flows, and by actively serving in support of knowledge diffusion across institutional and sectoral divides. The extent to which they do is dependent on the markets, partners and human resources available locally. This paper uses the unique establishment-level innovation data available in Norway to investigate whether location in urban labour market regions influences the geographical scope of collaborative linkages maintained within and outside the realm of clients. It proceeds to consider whether the diversity of partner types used locally, domestically and abroad differ between locations. |
| Keywords: | knowledge intensive business services; urban economies; collaboration; internationalization |
| JEL: | L80 O31 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_021&r=bec |